I know of three polls in the Sunday papers tomorrow – the weekly YouGov/Sunday Times and Opinium/Observer polls and the monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror. ComRes and Opinium are already out, YouGov usually turns up later and I’ll update tomorrow.

  • Opinium in the Observer has topline figures of CON 33%(-1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 14%(nc), GRN 7%(nc) (full details here).
  • ComRes have topline figures of CON 33%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 16%(nc), GRN 4%(nc), changes are from their previous online poll a month ago (full details here)

Neither poll shows any significant change from last time. The bigger picture appears to be that Labour and Conservative are still pretty much neck-and-neck. We’ve been seeing an increasing number of Tory leads over the last couple of weeks, but as with today’s polls there are still plenty of Labour leads too.


167 Responses to “Latest ComRes and Opinium figures”

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  1. Tony -its the economy s#[email protected]£

  2. Tony Cornwall

    I’m sure there are a number of reasons. I think part of it is that the free, fair and balanced British press tend to run stories when Con are ahead in the polls but deem Lab leads to be less newsworthy.

  3. On marr balls wouldnt “rule out ” a deal with snp and osborne wouldnt “rule out ” a deal with ukip.

    [Snip]

  4. @Ann in Wales

    The present tax free allowance for inherited wealth is I think, £325,000, twice that for a married couple. Are you saying that all groups of potential voters will benefit if the allowance is increased?

  5. Hi, kids.

    @Colin, NeilJ et al.

    I wondered what Nige was up to at first, but then the reports of budget giveaways for pensioners gave the game away. He’s defending himself from Tory raids on his aging voter base.

    What this also says is that he doesn’t really rate his party’s chances of winning seats from Labour so doesn’t care about putting off ex-Labour Kippers here and there. He’s made a call that he gains more on the blue front than the red.

    I wouldn’t underestimate Mr F.

  6. James
    ‘In February 1974, however, there was quite big shifts in the campaign. Labour overtook the Tories, who had called the election soon after polls had given them a lead for the first time in a few years. ‘

    Actually Labour did not overtake the Tories in the popular vote in that election – 4 more seats but the Tories remained 0.8% ahead.

  7. @Andy S

    I agreed with some of your summary points above but I would quibble about s couple of your observations.

    it is far more likely that they will end up with around 11 seats rather than the 23 to 30 being predicted by various election forecast sites.

    On what evidence? Based on the CVI measure there have already been more than 11 Ashcroft constituency polls projecting LD wins, providing evidence that is much more direct than the regional VI shifts that you seem to be tracking. If you don’t trust CVI (I am very guarded about this measure), the projections swing to the other extreme and there are no LibDem seats at all. I don’t understand how you settle on a half-way position.

    Over the last week, for example, statistical averaging indicates that LD dropped .3% while Green dropped .2%, and thus the gap between the two parties remains at 1.1% – within the margin of error.

    You say nothing about what MoE figure you are referring to here. The 2%-3% MoE for an individual poll is irrelevant. MoEs for margins are higher than those for absolute VIs and MoEs for averages are lower. To make a statement about a gap you need to specify a period over which you are averaging the polls and you need to carry out some kind of statistical test.

    My own tests show that for every calendar month sine Jan 2014, the LibDem VI has been reliably higher than that for the Greens (and this includes the most recent full month). So, as things stand the two VIs are Not within each other’s MoE (on any proper definition of MoE)

  8. COLIN
    What they need is less UKIP VI in constituencies where UKIP can’t win-but Cons can lose.

    You could be suggesting a spiffing new wheeze to Farage there: offer Cons an electoral pact similar to the old Liberal/SDP one. It could hardly harm UKIP’s prospects and could hardly be accepted by the Cons.

  9. 07052015
    At least balls can count.

    Upon whom?

  10. @07052015

    I didn’t see Osborne but in light of Farage’s coming out as a Tory-enabler (see my remarks above) that strikes me as a weak response but possibly the best available to him. He surely knows UKIP will have a tiny presence after May, but he can’t say he’s against a deal because he’s trying to encourage Kippers back into the fold!

  11. I think Farage is after the working class Tory vote – the type of people that voted for Thatcher and have since deserted the Tories maybe to New Labour but many to don’t know or won’t vote.

  12. All Balls seems to have said is that Labour won’t accept a coalition offer the SNP isn’t offering…..

    Peter.

  13. @Graham

    True that Wilson lost on votes but won on seats. Do we know what the result would have beenn if the voters had been given a straight choice between the two? We don’t! But both Lab and Con lost vote share in Feb 74. Labour lost less.

  14. GRAHAM and JAMES.
    The Feb 1974 GE saw a massive Liberal surge led by the late Jeremy Thorpe, which tended to split the non-Labour vote.
    Ted Heath had also alienated the Ulster Unionists, largely protestant, by his actions in the north eastern part of Ireland. He would have had the largest party in the Commons if he had not been so brave.
    UNICORN and ANDY S;
    I would think 11 LD numbers maybe too high, but ‘no Lib Dem seats’ seems a little far fetched, at the moment.

  15. @Chrislane

    As I remember it, the Liberals soaked up the “plague on both your houses” vote in ’74, taking votes from Lab and Con, rather than splitting one side or another. Despite the rather dramatic times there were also a lot of people voting on non-mining issues, and though Heath was hardly to blame for oil price hikes, or decimalisation, blamed he was and lost voters to Labour because of it. He also lost voters to Labour because of the entry into Europe – the price of beef and butter played for Labour! We can’t know which party lost most to the Liberals but there can’t be much in it.

    You’re right that Heath was brave to face down the Unionists. In many ways an admirable man, his party’s demonisation of him over the years since is rather tragic, for them as well as for him.

  16. @graham
    @postageincluded

    Graham, you say that in the General Election of Oct 1974 the Tories had a bigger share of the vote than Labour. (your post 10.05 today 15 March.
    Postageincluded, you agree with Graham.

    According to the vote shares in my Pears Cyclopedia and on Wikipedia, Labour were ahead of the Tories in Oct 74. The votes shares were Lab 39% and Tories 36%.

    @David in France
    You say that more houses should be built on green land, and that there is plenty of room in Britain. Some people may agree, some may disagree. One thing that you do not comment on is your pseudonym, which suggests that as far you’re concerned, you live in France.There is more space in France. I did live there. I want to go back maybe.

    I live in Devon. In Devon there is a man who lives in a horse drawn caravan, which he parks on road-side verges where his horse can graze. He has been doing this for more than twenty years. In an interview he has said that Devon is becoming more crowded with less places for him to park.

    His name is John Treadgood. There are some videos of him, being interviewed, on the internet.

  17. The name that I cited in my last post should be John Treagood, not John Treadgood.

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