The monthly Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard is out today, with topline figures of CON 33%(-1), LAB 34%(-2), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 13%(+4), GRN 6%(-1). Changes are from a month ago and show little of significance – the only large movement is a four point increase for UKIP, which is likely a reversion to the mean after an odd looking 9% in last month’s poll.

The tables aren’t up on the MORI website as I write (though MORI are usually very swift, so they may well be by the time you read this) though the Standard’s write up is here. The rest of the poll seems to have largely concentrated on looking towards the budget, and has some generally positive findings for George Osborne. 56% are now saying the government are doing a good job on the economy and Osborne’s own approval rating as Chancellor is 43%. That’s high by the standards of Tory Chancellors… but lower than Gordon Brown had for almost the whole time he was at Number 11.


395 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 33, LAB 34, LD 8, UKIP 13, GRN 6”

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  1. John Pilgrim

    Yes I got the Scotland Office leaflet – hardly bizarrely timed!

    Why pay for your own material when the taxpayer will do it for you?

  2. Anthony
    I triggered the auto mod with my 9.37 post. Please delete it, I have reposted omitting what I think was the word that triggered it. Thanks

    [It’s probably only going to provoke a debate anyway (in fact it has!) – as ever, this really isn’t a place to debate each others views on politics and policies – AW]

  3. 07052015

    My Twitter timeline last night was full of regretful comments from admirers about Charlie.

    Perhaps his judgment is not what it once was, for him to decide to take part, but the ultimate blame has to lie with the BBC QT time, who chose to ask him to appear in the first place.

    A despicable decision by an increasingly disreputable broadcaster.

  4. @07052015

    I suspect Kennedy would have stood down if the Lib Dems were doing reasonably well in the polls. As it is, without him standing again the Lib Dems would have little chance in that seat. With him standing, even as a diminished version of his former self, they are arguably favourites.

  5. ROBERT

    Now we know the full culinary resource, that pr initiative says everything you need to know.

    Liberty vs Security is always difficult-but I agree with your view on those statements.

  6. Ahem – whether particular parties are right wing or not (or left wing or not) is one of those topics that seem to be completely incompatible with non-partisan discussion, so let’s draw a line under it.

  7. James

    I can’t imagine anything worse for Charlie than scraping home as MP again to a hung Parliament where he has to hang around for hours in order to cast a critical vote when the Division Bell rings.

    It might be good for the LD parliamentary arithmetic, but a personal disaster.

  8. RICHARD

    Thanks for the heads-up. Worth noting that neither the FT nor Populus lend any credence to the “biggest HoC party forms the government” myth we seem to have to debumk so often here. 3 sentences are worth quoting:

    In more than half the simulations, Labour needs the SNP to sustain or support it in government. At the start of February this was true less than 40 per cent of the time. It is the main reason why even though the Conservatives are the largest party 50 per cent of the time in our simulations, on nearly half of these occasions (24 per cent) they are unable to form a government.

  9. I am very sorry for Kennedy and also Eric Joyce the Labour politician with a similar problem. I think the parties should do more to help them. The need to go to hospital and then a long period of therapy. Often the underlying reason is depression, many people with alcohol issues have mental health issues which they are self-medicating with alcohol.

    It would be best if Kennedy loses because his lifestyle is obviously not helping him. He need to change his life.

  10. @Newhouse

    From memory, I think that article was written at the end of February
    _______________________

    They update their projection weekly, the article is from the latest update this morning. But as they say, not much has changed in the last week.

    “the central seat projection of the Populus/Hanover Election Outcome Predictor has Labour and the Conservatives tied on 274 seats (a one seat swing from Labour to the Conservatives since last week)”

  11. This is not the place to air one’s views on civil liberties.. Saw Ed on the free speech link above. Really interesting. Looking forward to seeing the other party leaders. A chance to hear what they really think about the things that matter.

  12. NEWHOUSET
    From memory, I think that article was written at the end of February.

    Possibly so if they are as cavalier with their time stamps as the BBC website, but it is currently timestamped March 13, 2015 7:09 am and has exactly 1 comment timestamped 1 hour ago, so perhaps it is a real update.

  13. @ James, @ Andy Shadrick; the Green non candidate areas in Wales are a little odd; the obvious one for them to stand down was Ceredigion which was stymied by a silly row between the party leaders but the PC candidate is very green so Green voters there who vote PC would get an MP who voted for most of their issues (mind you, you could say the same for Mark Williams, the LD incumbent). Ynys Mon is the strangest though; PC will fancy it following their Assembly by election win in 2013 (the win was predicted the size and style wasn’t) but they will be pro Nuclear given the employment importance of Wylfa in Wales’ poorest constituency (yes even worse than Blaenau Gwent or Merthyr) so will go against one absolutely central Green tenet.

    The rest I’m not sure of although I suspect the PC candidate in Rhondda, given the local party’s track record is pretty green too

  14. Candy,

    I dont know why Cameron is relatively not unpopular, but whatever the reason, it applies to some extent in Scotland as well as England. My suspicion is that many of us in Scotland are not so fundamentally different from fellow Brits in England, Wales and the Norn.

  15. Re. ‘two kitchens’, if Ed was serious about keeping kosher, two kitchens makes perfect sense ;)

    [Snipped reply to something I’ve culled. On other matters, I think there’s some, um, well known photographic evidence that Ed Miliband doesn’t keep kosher – AW]

  16. I don’t think this is the place to air one’s on the diagnosis and treatment of alcoholism either. I do have some knowledge – my partner is a recovering alcoholic.

  17. Bill Patrick

    “many of us in Scotland are not so fundamentally different from fellow Brits in England, Wales and the Norn.”

    Indeed – and not much different than lots of those outwith the UK either – even those odd folk in Mann, the Channel Islands or Eire who choose not to send MPs to Westminster.

  18. Barbazenzero

    Ta

  19. Oldnat,

    Absolutely. I imagine if the Tories fielded candidates in the Republic or Sweden or Germany, then David Cameron would be a relative asset there. My point was to emphasise that Scottish politics aren’t as fundamentally unusual as some people think, and so sometimes the explanation for some phenomenon in England is the same as for the same phenomenon in Scotland.

  20. Anyone really wondering why the SNP remain popular should consider why the YouGov Scotland poll shows a current Yes 52% No 48% on the referendum question after excluding DK/WNV.

    Interesting that most of the Con increase seems to be at the expense of UKIP.

  21. Couper2082: I would agree with you (about Chalres Kennedy’s personal life) but Westminster is all he has known – it is a huge part of who he is, and it’s all he has left. I lost my job recently and have been suffering with mental health issues, and take it from me, even the most stressful job in the world is better for the soul than unemployment.

  22. @oldnat

    Political parties (of whatever hue) aren’t noted for being model employers.

    @Chris in Cardiff

    Thanks for the detailed info. PC sound a bit schizophrenic on the environment, which is pretty similar to the SNP to be honest. i.e. they mostly tend green, but sometimes won’t if they think the item is too important for the local economy or if it’s of ‘national’ (Scottish or Welsh, rather than GB) importance (e.g. Longannet).

  23. Barbazenzero,

    The SNP continue to hold onto a significant portion of unionist/non-referendum voters.

  24. The theoretical referendum figures are actually Yes: 49% No: 51%. A fall from last time, although it looks like the referendum recall figures have finally been weighted back to the actual result.

  25. @Barbazenzero

    It’s curious that YouGov continues not to use the referendum for weighting. Their unweighted sample (460 yes, 520 no) is closer to the actual result than the weighted numbers (474 yes, 499 no). If anything there is a slight drift away from the SNP and independence (1-2 points) in this poll compared to the one in early February.

  26. YG poll

    Indy support up 3.4% to 48.7%

    WestminsterVI for 2010 Lab /Yes 2014 – SNP 81% : Lab 18% : Grn 1%

    Definitely decided / Very unlikely to change vote – 84%

    Party United/Divided? – Lab 59% Divided, 11% United : SNP1 0% Divided, 67% United

    Holyrood 2016 Const VI / List VI / Seats (via Scotland Votes)
    SNP – 51/44/72 (+3)
    Lab – 26/24/31 (-6)
    Con – 12/12/15 (nc)
    SGP- 4/8/8 (+6)
    LD – 4/4/3 (-2)
    UKIP 2/2/0
    SSP – 0/3/0

  27. @AW
    Sorry, my comment crossed with your scissors

    Re Ed’s kitchens, I was being lighthearted :)

    @Barbazenzero
    If Con end up slightly ahead yet unable to form any kind of coalition or C&S, I don’t believe for a moment that most of the media would accept that Lab plus whoever have any right to govern, even if they can assemble a viable arrangement where Con could not.

  28. Oops re above, looks like YG have now started to weight by recalled referendum vote with this poll. Saw “referendum vote” in the first column and assumed the rest of the format would be the same as before.

    The biggest effect of this change is that support for independence is down from 49 to 45 and opposition is up from 44 to 48. But the effect on the SNP in the voting intention does not appear to be so great.

    Bit more detailed than before. The Lab 2010 / Yes 2014 column is quite interesting, given that it is this element that Murphy said that he would target.

  29. @John Pilgrim

    Yes, I received that leaflet. In my mind, all they did there was list the things that they have not delivered.

  30. @Poll Troll
    I’m sorry to hear about your troubles. Good luck for a swift change of fortune.

  31. JAMES

    I agree that the weighting still seems a little odd, but even as it stands it suggests that the current SNP policy of FFA for now is pretty popular.

    The weighting that’s really odd is the Political Party Identification of SNP (Holyrood) & Lab (Westminster) which weights 40 respondants up to 106, which could give LiS false comfort.

    Arguably, it had some relevance immediately after the 2011 GE but it really seems past its use by date post referendum.

    It will be interesting to see if YouGov retain it in their Scottish polling after May.

  32. James

    You have the indy figures the wrong way round

  33. One interesting thing is that David Cameron does very slightly better thant Ed Miliband among SNP supporters in that Scottish poll. This isn’t a “Tartan Tories” point- he’s extremely unpopular with both groups and there’s only 3% in it- but the point is that Ed Miliband may be the source of at least some of Labour’s worries in Scotland. I’m not sure if there’s ever been a leader of the Labour party who struggles to much to appeal to Scottish voters, and the contrast with Gordon Brown could not be more stark.

  34. Also, aside from those already planning on voting Labour, there is a clear preference in Scotland for a Tory government with a lot of SNP MPs, suggesting that a (small) majority of SNP voters see SNP MPs as better guardians of their interests than a Labour government. This makes me suspect that the “Vote SNP, get Tory” slogan is fundamentally misconceived: the issue SLAB have is making people prefer them to the Tories.

  35. Prof C has updated his Poll of Polls with the YouGov data.

    See http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/03/poll-polls-westminster-vote-intentions-12-march/

  36. Class divide at last night’s GU leaders’ debate?

    Sturgeon, Davidson and Rennie all said they had tried cannabis at University

    Murphy said he had sniffed glue.

  37. Sorry, misread the tables. A small majority of 2010 SNP voters would prefer that scenario, BUT of those SNP supporters expressing a preference, a VERY clear majority of current SNP voters would prefer that scenario! (46% to 31%.) So the “Vote SNP, get Tory” slogan really does seem like a waste of breath, at least for a lot of Scottish voters.

  38. Oldnat,

    These days I’m suspicious of any politician who didn’t smoke pot at university, unless they didn’t go to university.

  39. There are two danger questions for the SNP

    A large number of SNP MPs make a Conservative government more likely 37% Labour more likely 13% No Difference 27% DK 22%

    This together with the forced choice question
    Labour Gov’t few SNP MPs 46% (Inca 31% of SNP voters) as opposed to Con gov’t many SNP MPs

    Shows that if Labour can convince the SNP voters that if they vote SNP there will be a Conservative government they can make ground.

    The NHS is a non-starter for Labour despite the months of campaigning. Who is best to protect the NHS in Scotland
    Labour 20% SNP 47%

  40. (Or rather says they didn’t.)

  41. @Bill Patrick

    I took a different conclusion to you, it surprised me that so many 31% of SNP voters would rather not have a Tory government even if it means the SNP losing the GE

  42. Couper2802,

    Those numbers on the “Which would you prefer?” question are largely driven by those already planning to vote Labour. Those aren’t the voters that SLAB needs to persuade.

  43. I don’t find it surprising. I was already sure that what most SNP voters would want is a Labour government and a lot (say 59) SNP MPs.

  44. @ Poll Troll

    Sending you a hug – life can be rotten sometimes but Rosie and Daisie frequently remind us of:

    “Wenger’s “Life is motion” philosophy. In life as in football.”

    The one thing that is certain in life, is that things will change.

  45. Populus

    Populus [email protected] · 16s16 seconds ago
    Latest Populus VI: Lab 32 (-1), Con 29 (-3), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 18 (+3), Greens 6 (-), Others 7 (+1). Tables here:

    http://www.populus.co.uk/Poll/Voting-Intention-170/

  46. Populus:

    Lab 32 (-1)
    Con 29 (-3)
    LD 8 (-1)
    UKIP 18 (+3)
    Greens 6 (-)
    Others 7 (+1)

    Purple Surge?

  47. UKIP are back….immigration in the news again….

  48. TARK
    If Con end up slightly ahead yet unable to form any kind of coalition or C&S, I don’t believe for a moment that most of the media would accept that Lab plus whoever have any right to govern, even if they can assemble a viable arrangement where Con could not.

    If you are suggesting that post GE the media will be bleating for constitutional change then you may well be right, but I find it hard to imagine that the HoC will change its procedures overnight. The precedents of 1924 and 1892 are recent by Westminster standards, but perhaps it will help drive Cons into the constitutional convention which has been needed for more than a century.

  49. Back in the real world, some continued oddities from the economy.

    The January PMI construction figure was up strongly to 59.1, reported as an unexpected surge.

    Today, the ONS shows that the sector actually fell by 2.3%, being reported as a ‘shock construction plunge’.

    The construction data is notoriously volatile, but the 4 monthly figures do show a stagnating or declining sector, even while the PMI returns romp on. The curren decline is large enough to suggest overall GDP growth won’t increase from the current level.

    I think we are in a genuinely odd economic position, where there is a decent recovery, but it doesn’t seem to be very well established. Take away the very substantial commodity price influences, and I’m doubtful we would be talking about much of a recovery at all.

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