The monthly Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard is out today, with topline figures of CON 33%(-1), LAB 34%(-2), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 13%(+4), GRN 6%(-1). Changes are from a month ago and show little of significance – the only large movement is a four point increase for UKIP, which is likely a reversion to the mean after an odd looking 9% in last month’s poll.

The tables aren’t up on the MORI website as I write (though MORI are usually very swift, so they may well be by the time you read this) though the Standard’s write up is here. The rest of the poll seems to have largely concentrated on looking towards the budget, and has some generally positive findings for George Osborne. 56% are now saying the government are doing a good job on the economy and Osborne’s own approval rating as Chancellor is 43%. That’s high by the standards of Tory Chancellors… but lower than Gordon Brown had for almost the whole time he was at Number 11.


395 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 33, LAB 34, LD 8, UKIP 13, GRN 6”

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  1. First

  2. It looks like OM for Tories is all but impossible, and even having most seats will be very hard.

    Polls seem to move a bit, but nothing really changes. I still predict a Lab led coalition.

  3. Back to polldrums ———- again. Where will be in 8 weeks and a day? At the current, glacial, rates of change in VI arguments here, which seem to revolve around either wishful thinking or Angels dancing on the head of pin, stagnate further.
    Farage wants to get rid of some equality legislation because the country is no longer intolerant. Is that “dog-whistle” politics going to impact on UKIP Vi positively or negatively?

  4. not a great poll from ipsos if you’re a tory….there’s only 8 weeks to go!

    I think the tories have to beat labour by at least 2 points to have a chance of getting back into government with a coalition.

    I think the polls will slightly understate the tories position, so a 2 point lead is possible….whether a centre right coalition can be formed is harder to calculate.

    If today’s ipsos mori poll had shown a 3 point tory lead, the papers and the tory rampers and troll would have gone into overdrive…the fact that it didn’t and they haven’t is not a great sign for the blues, tbh, with less than 2 months to go. tories still playing catch up, am afraid.

  5. The rather low Ukip VI here raises further questions in relation to an analysis I have just completed..

    Has Ukip support fallen since Jan 1st?

    On Feb 24th @AW posted a blog suggesting that Ukip support had fallen since the beginning of the year. There followed a bit of discussion as to whether this effect was real or not. There wasn’t a reliable decline to be seen in conventional regression analysis (of Ukip VI against days-since-Jan1), and couldn’t be seen in other standard tests. However, a couple of us were able to find non-standard analyses that seemed to suggest that there might be some truth in the statement.

    Today I have returned to reanalyse the data using up-to-date polling figures, and I find that the situation is not that much clearer. Using data from all pollsters there is still no reliable drop. However, using YouGov polls alone the slope of the best-fitting downward trend is just large enough – at about a 0.5 point drop per month -to be classified as reliable (p=0.042).

    Before treating this as an established trend, however, it is worth noting that the mean Ukip VI over he first 12 days of January was 14.64% and the corresponding figure for the first 12 days of March was 14.67%. A rough plot of the data suggests that there might have been a bit of a dip followed by a more recent rally.

    Based on a simple extrapolation of these trends we can perhaps expect a further 1% drop in support before the election. These ae rather subtle and uncertain changes, which is what makes them rather difficult to detect statistically.

  6. Not much going on here then!
    Does anybody know the dates of the fieldwork for this poll?

  7. So 56% think the Chancellor is doing a good job but only 33% will vote for his party.

    Perhaps the best way to interpret that is that people now feel the economy is improving but are divided on the path they want to take going forward.

    Bittersweet for the Tories.

  8. Polls seem to be showing a slight move to the Conservatives and with the history of the shy Conservatives it is now probable that the Conservatives are now leading Labour. Slight momentum is with the Blues I feel which makes the budget next week the main event of the campaign!

  9. Unicorn

    On a crude 5-poll rolling average, they have with Ipsos Mori.

    Labour and the Conservatives are just about level on the same measure.

    The Tories have seen a slight uptick with the latest poll on that measure, but my analysis is so quick and crude that I would not read anything into that.

  10. @Hawthorn

    Clearly the effect is just on the cusp of reliability which is why it shows up in some tests but not in others.

    To interpret your 5-point rolling averages you would need to take account of the MoE for this measure.

  11. “Syzygy

    @JOHN B

    ‘It was a 6.41 p.m.
    Though I doubt anybody noticed……. (walks away sadly and sits in a corner to sulk…….)’

    Come out of your corner – I noticed which is why I wrote “It’s true, the pups and Paul are back.” Apologies for lack of citation :( ”

    And my thanks to anyone who has been eagle-eyed enough to spot one of my recent posts and been nice about them – we could do with more, basic niceness in this weird world.

  12. “More than half the public — 53 per cent — think it is “time for a change” and only 32 per cent agreed the Conservatives deserved to win the election.”

    Therein is the problem for the Cons. We can all think of reasons why only 32% think the Cons deserve to win the GE but the party has an image problem. In part this can be traced to the epithet of ‘nasty’ but also to giving a large tax cut to the wealthiest too.

  13. R&D
    is that really you!? Welcome back

  14. RAF

    Don’t forget about the shy Conservative voters, just like the shy Labour voters up north, who came out on the night during the Scottish Referendum.

    On the issue of SNP, I believe this is going to be repeated on the night, again, they (SNP) will gain seats, but not as many, as they thought they would.

    This is the warm up season, for the Conservatives, they have not yet started there attack on Labour.

    One of the possible reasons, why Cameron wanted no debates in the attack phase. From April onwards.

  15. mike n

    It is indeed. Sometimes sabbaticals are good for you.

    Intriguing polls I think and – as I mentioned before – anyone writing on the lines of:

    “It is clear that x will win a majority”, basing that on two or three polls should remember Wenger’s “Life is motion” philosophy. In life as in football.

  16. Another Lib Dem private poll – This time for West Aberdeenshire.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/517422/polling-suggests-lib-dems-can-retain-north-east-seat/

    No tables yet, as far as I can see.

  17. Unicorn

    The current UKIP figure is 12. Six polls ago (14/10/14) their figure was 14.

    However, a year ago (12/3/14) it was 10 on that measure.

    The picture with Yougov is similar in terms of variation:

    Today: 14.5
    14/10/14: 15.5
    12/3/14: 13

    Had I picked a number of weeks either way, the same effect would be clear.

    It would appear that UKIP had an increase in the second half of 2014 which has since subsided.

    On any common sense reading eyeball reading of the polls it is a clear picture. I don’t think MoE is an issue with Yougov given the number of polls which show it.

  18. Therein is the problem for the Cons. We can all think of reasons why only 32% think the Cons deserve to win the GE but the party has an image problem. In part this can be traced to the epithet of ‘nasty’ but also to giving a large tax cut to the wealthiest too.

    presumably the ukip voters don’t think the tories are nasty enough….the people who think the tories are nasty would never vote for them.

  19. @unicorn
    The overall impression I gain from your rather long post at 1.33 is that you are trying to find evidence for something the data does not show.
    Whenever someone shows VI to two decimal places as a result of averaging results taken at different times, I wince.

  20. Peter Crawford

    The problem for the Tories is that they are just too economically right-wing to appeal to a broad enough spectrum of voters to win a majority.

    They have tried changing everything else about their brand. However, the only time they have consistency polled over 40% with ICM since 1992 is when they moved to the left by promising to match Labour’s spending commitments under the early leadership of Cameron. When they adopted austerity, they fell back again.

    I am not arguing about what is right or wrong in terms of policy, but how it affects polling.

  21. WB

    Farage wants to get rid of some equality legislation because the country is no longer intolerant. Is that “dog-whistle” politics going to impact on UKIP Vi positively or negatively?

    Generally this sort of thing bounces off them – a lot of supporters are generally fine with low-key racist dog whistling, and I think most of the more left wing people who were with UKIP for protest vote purposes ditched them when the #GREENSURGE happened. On top of that, the small number of people turned off by this will be balanced out by the boost they get from a couple of days of OTT news coverage.

  22. HAWTHORN

    not sure i agree, with you…”austerity” hasn’t happened like it did in europe. they were fools to talk it up the way they did.

    there were lots of reasons why they came down from the early 40 highs they enjoyed when cameron faced brown…

    i actually think the crash helped brown and discredited the tories…who looked opportunistic

  23. I make a living as a web developer, you’d think I’d be able to remember the closing italic tag wouldn’t you?

  24. Re Farage’s comments

    I can’t see this helping UKIP. It’s not as if it is seeking to appeal to voters to its right is it? There are very few of those. I think it’s a mis-step from Farage and he seldom makes those.

  25. “Farage wants to get rid of some equality legislation because the country is no longer intolerant.”

    He’d be better off asking why if a lot of that legislation was based on people being a minority then perhaps it should be looked at again now that the minority has flipped in a lot of places.

    For example in the past when ethnic minorities did badly in schools where they were the minority it was a big deal but now wwc kids are doing so badly in schools where they are the minority the political class couldn’t give a ****.

  26. Peter Crawford

    I am not just arguing about the last 7-8 years, but the last 22.

    The fact is that austerity has hit the people that the Tories need to attract to win elections outright. We are also talking about rhetoric as well as substance in terms of how the ideal economy should work.

    The economic policy of the Eurozone is even more right-wing than Osborne’s; he is lucky to have that benchmark to be judged against. We aren’t saddled with a half-cocked currency union either.

  27. Has somebody a forecast on the political complexion of the parliamentary Lib Dems if it is reduced to 25 or so seats?

    What is the likely Orange Book / Social Democratic division?

  28. Little Red Rock

    I think it’s possible this is more about firing up his base and keeping the publicity machine going than trying to win new voters from other parties. Give them a bit of red (non-halal) meat to try and stop them drifting back to the Tories/not bothering to vote. On the other hand you could be right and this could just be a slip of the mask.

  29. Labour remain in the 36-40% range, barring outliers.

  30. @ Bill Patrick

    Labour remain in the 36-40% range, barring outliers.

    Pardon me?

  31. Funtypippin

    “I make a living as a web developer, you’d think I’d be able to remember the closing italic tag wouldn’t you?”

    LOL, as they say. I wondered why on earth 07052015 uses their phone number as their username, until I actually bothered reading the numbers.

  32. Peter Crawford
    “presumably the ukip voters don’t think the tories are nasty enough….”

    Hmm, I don’t think this is (necessarily) correct and could be simply your view of what makes a UKIPper tick. Is your ‘presumably’ grounded in the views expressed by UKIP voters in opinion polls?

  33. I doubt that this is a deliberate slip by Farage because the interview was recorded ~6 months ago, when UKIP were pretty near their peak poll rating.

  34. @ Funtypippin

    I think I agree with you that the oxygen of publicity is the most likely motivation, however in terms of impact on VI I am unsure as to whether it will simply wake up those on the far right to the prospect of UKIP as an “electable?” party echoing some of their views or alternatively that the shock value will be so great as to discourage Redkippers from having anything to do with such policies.

  35. WB

    I think its just as likely to drive Bluekippers back to the Conservatives.

  36. @ Little Red Rock

    I should have mentioned Bluekippers too, the point is I am unsure as to the overall impact particularly as the BNP has imploded and their voters will be looking for somewhere to go. I suppose only time will tell.

  37. Further to the life is motion idea and people quoting statistics to “prove” their point: in reality almost nothing is static>

    As AW says there are rarely single – or even understandable reasons sometimes – for poll movements and figures such as “50% of Scots would consider voting SNP are just another way of saying that 50% of Scots wouldn’t consider voting SNP.

    There is a feeling generated here that any Scots posters speak for Scotland as an entity, rather than for themselves.

    That is not to downplay the fact that there is a clear majority of Scots voters intent on voting SNP – as things stand.

    Ironically the main drama of this is the magnifying effect of FPTP. I was interested to see that Chuka Umanna has broken ranks with EM [as I understand it] to say that the system has to change – even if that means perpetual coalition government.

    I have felt this way for decades and, with a far greater number of women involved at the highest level it is possible that, given time, we could end up with a genuinely mature, non-shouty democracy.

    One can dream anyway.

  38. WB,

    It’s the Red Dems. Labour have a 6% boost on their 2010 levels in the bag; where else do left-wing voters have to go?

  39. Current trend looks like neck and neck to me. As for the result – I predict a bit of a mess. But I don’t think DC will be instantly resigning as PM: it will be well worth him trying to put together a coalition.

  40. @ Bill Patrick

    “where else do left-wing voters have to go?:

    The Greens?

  41. Little Red Rock,

    Implausible. Next you’re going to tell me that ex-Lib Dems are going to vote SNP en masse in Scotland.

  42. “But I don’t think DC will be instantly resigning as PM: it will be well worth him trying to put together a coalition.”

    with whom?

  43. I know a few people who are certainly blue but may well dabble in kipperism from time to time, especially in European elections. I am pretty certain that they would be out of there like a shot, and would deny any links to UKIP if the party looked to be trying to pander to the racist vote. This is a bad slip by Farage. We will have to wait to see if it has any great effect on VI but I suspect it will.

  44. @ Bill Patrick

    “Next you’re going to tell me that ex-Lib Dems are going to vote SNP en masse in Scotland.”

    That’s spooky! How do you do that?

  45. @ RMJ 1

    Ah! But who will be the beneficiaries?

    I think it might be the Conservatives to a greater extent than Labour.

  46. OldNat @ 2 pm

    On the private poll for West Aberd & Kinc, it`s no wonder that 81% did not recognise SNP`s Stu Donaldson.

    As a constituent of WAK, I have had no election communication from SNP naming the candidate, let alone saying his age and background.

    In contrast, we have had about 10 items from the LibDems and 15 from the Tories since September, all naming their candidates and most of them giving pictures.

    SNP`s total since the referendum is 2, and the only name is Nicola Sturgeon.

    I reckon WAK will be very close, and the Ashcroft poll is dubious. However the latest message received from the Tories displays Ashcroft`s SNP lead prominently, and says the only way to keep SNP out is to vote Tory; they say it`s a two-horse race.

  47. Bill Patrick

    “Next you’re going to tell me that ex-Lib Dems are going to vote SNP en masse in Scotland.”

    If what the LDs are telling us about the Survation poll in WA&K is right, maybe they aren’t.

    Really need to see the tables first, but on what we know so far, the party VIs are – Ashcroft VI / Ashcroft CVI / Survation

    Con 27/25/27
    Lab 13/10/12
    UKIP 3/3/x : Grn 2/2/x (x= sharing 6)
    LD 14/19/30
    SNP 40/40/25

    Something odd somewhere.

  48. @Unicorn (fpt)

    I ran the LWVG model through the most recent set of Ashcroft polls (March 4). I’ll leave it to you to check the Euclidean distance (which I can of course, but am too lazy, and also scared that my model is rubbish :) ).

    Apologies for the slightly lengthy post, in the below I’ll give my figure first, then Ashcroft’s in parentheses – note that the totals will not necessarily equal 100 due to the usual rounding.

    Aberdeen West
    Con 31 (25), Lab 8 (10), LD 22 (20), SNP 33 (39), Others 7 (5)

    Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
    Con 27 (21), Lab 29 (31), LD 2 (2), SNP 39 (42), Others 3 (4)

    Dumfries & Galloway
    Con 34 (30) Lab 29(28), LD 2 (2), SNP 29 (34), Others 5 (6)

    Dumfriesshire
    Con 39 (34) Lab 20 (18), LD 5 (7), SNP 27 (34), Others 9 (7)

    Renfrewshire East:
    Con 34 (26) Lab 35 (34) LD 2 (2) SNP 25 (33), Others 3 (4)

    Edinburgh SW:
    Con 27 (19), Lab 28 (27), LD 4(4), SNP 31 (40), Others 9 (9)

    Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath:
    Con 10 (7) Lab 43 (39) LD 2 (3) SNP 31 (40), Others 9 (6)

    Ross, Skye & Lochaber:
    Con 13 (8) Lab 9 (9) LD 36 (35), SNP 32 (40), Others 11(9)

    So, a bit of deviation there….. One definite issue is that I’m overestimating the Conservative vote. It was pointed out to me that YouGov’s Scottish panel has too many Tories so this is probably a systematic error. Overall, I’m fairly happy with the values of the LD and Labour votes, but the SNP is generally underestimated and Con overestimated w.r.t. Ashcroft.

    South of the (at present unmanned!) border, I looked at the four seats (which, being perfectly honest, are not the most interesting seats to look at).

    Colne Valley:
    Con 36 (33) Lab 31 (32), LD 12 (12) UKIP 11 (11) Green 9 (10), Others * (2)

    High Peak:
    Con 35(.4) (37) Lab 34(.9) (38), LD 6 (6), UKIP 16 (12) Green 7 (6) Others * (1)

    Norwich North
    Con 32 (34) Lab 37 (35) LD 5 (5) UKIP 16 (16) Green 9 (10)

    Vale of Glamorgan
    Con 38 (38) Lab 33 (32) LD 4 (4) UKIP 14 (10) Greens 6(3), Others (incl. P/C) 5 (13)

    @Oldnat regarding Aberdeenshire West: I haven’t read the link but if that’s true, then either the Scottish opinion polls are miles off or the SLDs are kidding themselves. I would say that my models are about as favourable to the Lib Dems in Scotland as any plausible one, but if they get more than 25% of the vote in May, I would be surprised.

  49. Returning to the basic question of the LD’s it is for me simply a matter of mathmatical probabilities, nothing else.

    In the 1988 Canadian federal election the NDP (Labour), that has played the same role a LD in the UK (until the 2011 federal election), won their largest number of seats ever as can see from the results by province:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1988

    So at 20.4% federal support the NDP obtained 43 seats in a 295 seat parliament. 1988 was our last three party federal election as 1993, became a five party race, including the rise of the nationalist Bloc Quebecois:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1993#Results_by_province

    In 1993 the NDP end up with 6.9% and 9 seats, not unlike the situation facing the LD in the UK in 2015. On the surface federal polls seemed to show that the NDP was heading to oblivion and the Progressive Conservatives were about to become a very diminished opposition, but still the second largest party in parliament.

    But it is when one looked at the regional numbers that it became clear that the Progressive Conservatives were heading for oblivion (they lost 167 of 169 seats) and that the NDP might retain a few seats but not many.

    In the current situation I can find no region of the UK where LD are remotely approaching 26.6% and the last time they approached 15.5% was in the Southwest in Mid-February.

    So I have to say sorry folks but once a party goes below a certain overall percentage of the vote personal individual popularity of an MP and personal merit simply do not count for anything.

    Let us take the seat of Vancouver-East, for example, which like Orkney and Shetland had been in the hands of the CCF/NDP since 1935. In 1974 and 1993 even though Van-East was a bastion for the CCF/NDP even a popular and hard working MP could not withstand the “national” trend:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vancouver_East#Election_results

    What it will likely come down to on May 7th is some pretty tight three and possibly four way races in previously held LD “safe” seats. In 1993 the NDP held onto their 9 seats as follows:

    1 above 40%
    5 below 40%
    3 below 33%

    And they lost a tenth seat by .2%:

    http://esm.ubc.ca/CA93/results.html

    These are the harsh realities of FPTP and no amount of wishful thinking is going to change that. Now if LD support rises in the polls and it is not based on the wishful thinking of some pollsters, using 2010 weighting, things could change.

    But just yesterday YouGov upweighted LD from an unweighted respondent value of 24.9% of 2010 to a weighted one of 29.2%. Why some pollsters keep doing that I do not understand because I believe they are systematically skewing their results.

    So when LouisWalshVotesGreen reports out an overall LD seat count of 11 I find that much more believeable than what the other election forecast sites are predicting, as it is in line with what happened in 2014 EU election and what has been happened in the Scottish Parliament elections and local government elections in general since 2010.

  50. I should clarify – when I said I was “happy” about the LD and Labour votes, I meant in terms of the projections compared to Ashcroft. Frankly, who the voters cast their ballots for is entirely up to them!

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