Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%. This follows on from a four point Conservative lead in yesterday’s YouGov poll and a one point Tory lead in their Sunday Times poll at the weekend.

Earlier on today there was also a new YouGov poll of Welsh voting intentions for ITV Wales and Cardiff University. Topline Westminster voting intentions in Wales stand at CON 25%, LAB 39%, LDEM 5%, PC 10%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% – Roger Scully’ analysis of it is over on his Elections in Wales blog here.


524 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 33, LAB 31, LD 8, UKIP 15, GRN 6”

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  1. OldNat

    Thanks for raising that issue about IER in Scotland. As I hoped, it does seem that the Scottish Returning Officers are basically ignoring it for the General Election. Debra Storr has a longer piece on it here:

    http://www.debrastorr.org/2015/03/scare-stories-re-voter-registration.html

    As I said earlier in the thread the Electoral Commission seems to have managed to add to the chaos by creating another 2 million panicky queries from people who probably are registered, while various government actions have meant that those who should be aren’t and no one really knows what is happening.

    The situation is much healthier in Scotland however because of the referendum, though there will still be a few areas of concern.

  2. @JAMES

    I think the two ladies will be looking forward to it. I fear that the two men may regret agreeing to take part.

  3. @SYZYGY and Bramley

    You are forgiven!

  4. @Roger

    We got a letter yesterday addressed to the householder, listing who at the address was on the electoral register. I believe these are going out everywhere, so if this IER is a mess that may help address it. They mentioned the lack of a canvass in 2014 was one of the reasons for it being incomplete.

    From the Feb report

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/182375/Analysis-of-the-December-2014-electoral-registers-in-England-and-Wales.pdf

    “To help to address the issues identified by the December register data and in particular the lack of comprehensive household canvass activity in autumn 2014, we have strongly recommended that EROs undertake an audit of their registers and write to all households – regardless of whether or not they currently have any registered electors – in early 2015, in good time before the May polls.
    We have provided EROs with a template letter for this purpose. This ‘household notification letter’ (HNL) shows who is registered to vote at that particular address and prompts anyone who is not yet registered to do so.
    This approach has a number of clear benefits, all of which can contribute to helping EROs to ensure that their registers are as accurate and complete as possible ahead of the May polls:
    Prompting those who have not yet registered to do so ? Helping to pick up those who have recently moved within or into the registration area ?
    Giving residents an opportunity to check their details on the register are accurate”

  5. @ Roger Mexico,

    Both have been quite clear that they will put their support where it will give them the most influence.

    Welllll… That’s not quite right. Both have made it clear that they can potentially work with both main parties but they have certain preferences.

    – Senior Lib Dems (many of whom, admittedly, may not be not be around on May 8th) have repeatedly said that all things being equal, they’d prefer to work with the Conservatives.
    – Their current policy and spending goals align much, much more closely with Labour.
    – Statements from Tim Farron and their behaviour throughout this Parliament have made it clear that their highest priority is creating a stable government, at any cost to their electability or their legislative priorities.
    – The DUP don’t care who forms the government but they really, really do not want the SNP to have influence.
    – The Lib Dems also dislike the SNP, although they haven’t made any specific statements about working with them.

    Except for the first two items, everything on this list can cut both ways depending on the Parliamentary arithmetic (and not, I’d suggest, on whether Labour or the Conservatives have 286 or 287 seats.) If the Conservatives get around 300 seats, I think the prospects for minority government are stable enough and the difference in mandate between the Tories and Labour is substantial enough that the Lib Dems will definitely back them, and the DUP will then jump in to keep the SNP out.

    If the Conservatives get 280-290 seats, then the putative Con+LD+DUP+Ukip majority is going to be in the teens at best, probably in single digits, the government will be very unstable and weak, and the Lib Dems have a problem.

    If Lab+ProgBloc+LD adds up to 360 or so that may be incentive enough to induce the LDs to back them. (At that point the DUP will probably jump in to dilute the SNP’s influence and win some perks for Northern Ireland, since there’s no point in being the only small party left out of the C&S club.)

  6. James

    It would take a handful, and dying isn’t the only reason for it to happen.

  7. And those of you who lambasted me for using the phrase ‘moral authority’ ought to have understood the intention of the sentence, which was that a Labour government relying only on Scottish votes for a HoC majority will be on a sticky wicket should it wish to push through further devolution to Scotland because this would be understood (possibly rightly) by voters in E&W as the Scots getting special treatment (someone referred to this earlier – my apologies not not naming the writer but if I go back a page I’ll lose what I’ve already written).
    I am well aware that technically authority in the HoC comes from the numbers turning up to vote, but the British public understands subtlety as well!

  8. P.S.

    it was Phil Haines at 10.25

  9. Er, if Lab+ProgBloc+LD adds up to 350 or so. If it adds up to 360 the Lib Dems’ feelings won’t matter too much!

  10. Did I miss mention of today’s MORI poll?

    Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), Ukip 13 (+4), LD 8 (+2), Greens 6 (-1)

  11. Spearmint,

    good analysis…the problem is that lab + ld + snp will almost certainly have a majority in the house larger than con + ld + dup + ukip..

    I actually don’t think ukip and the lib dems can be part of the same government, as they want opposite things practically, and i think the lib dems would object to that, but ukip could provide c & s.

    I certainly think lab + lib dem + snp > con + dup + lib dem

    which boils down, for those algebraically minded to ;

    lab + snp > con + dup

    so the lib dems will probably face this choice. given projections the left (lab/snp) alliance will be more stable than the other one, though the liberals could prop up the con/dup alliance, if there is one, this is likely to be less stable in terms of numbers.

  12. Lab 34 (-2), Con 33 (-1), Ukip 13 (+4), LD 8 (+2), Greens 6 (-1)

    interesting. i expect the result not to be too different from that, with the tories possibly slightly ahead.

  13. @ Old Nat,

    Ukip on the charge! :p

  14. ” British public understands subtlety as well!”

    I am not sure where you work, but the lack of interest among even educated members of the public never ceases to astonish me…a few ukip types will huff and puff about the scots and people will be generally miffed, but the idea that this will lead to some kind of popular insurrection is laughable.

    The SNP, by mere virtue of their numbers, are going to have a big influence on the parliament.

    The ipsos mori poll isn’t great for the conservatives. they need to build up leads, and ipsos mori isn’t particularly labour friendly…it’s probably an accurate, in so far as these things can be, summary of where we are now, less than two months before polling day.

  15. @ oldnat et al.

    I NEVER talk nonsense.

    You all know perfectly well what I am saying.

    I do not know what the seat distribution of the next Parliament will be.
    Neither do you.

    Pointing to hypothetical seat distributions, and what (you think) their outcomes will be in terms of a government IS nonsense.

    Strangely enough, I was just reading about the chaotic behaviour of dynamic neural networks before I read your reply!

    Think of this election as a chaotic system.

    Nobody knows what the resulting government will be — even if you knew the seat numbers.

    I suspect a lot will depend on things you have not explored which will only become clear during the course of negotiations after the election. Like public mood, expectations, and media mood and expectations.

    All I am saying, as you know, is that Labour and SNP mps are not interchangeable, and the relative numbers of each after the election may have profound and unexpected effects on the nature of the Government formed.

    I am not attempting to tell the people of Scotland how to vote in a General Election. I have enough respect for the voters involved to accept that that is their choice

    Best Andyo

  16. Also the DUP are currently, specifically, pissed off at the Tories for how they’ve handled Northern Ireland in this Parliament, and not over-fond of the austerity programme. I don’t think this would be any impediment to offering them C&S, but it does mean the traditional unionist preference for the Conservatives is pretty weak at this point.

    So the algebra may boil down to Lab + Snp > Con, with two wild cards.

    I still think the Lib Dems will try to prop up Cameron if they possibly can, but to make it practical the Tories will need to help them by making sure their seat count stays in the 290s. Anything below that, and it’s going to be chaos.

  17. Spearmint

    “Ukip on the charge”

    Oh, God! What’s the charge this time? :-)

  18. Phil Haines is probably right that whether Clegg survives will be important. The Orange Bookers aren’t very numerous – most Lib Dem MPs are ‘local heroes’, pragmatic, concerned with doing the best for their communities and often having spent many years before winning. However, unlike a previous generation of localists such as Cyril Smith, they tend to be extremely loyal and aware of the vulnerability of the Party to public fighting. This presumably comes from the experience of the late 80s and the effect of the ructions around the Lib-SDP merger.

    In contrast the Orange Book types (Clegg, Browne, Alexander, Laws) tended to take over from existing Lib Dem MPs or seats where the Lib Dem tradition was already well established – just as their equivalents do in Labour or Conservative seats. They got selected because they came from the right background, had the right contacts, said the right things and generally ‘looked’ right. They were how people expected MPs and ministers to be and were also the ones most likely to be picked as ministers[1]. Clegg (and indeed Cameron) got chosen as leaders on the same principle – with the enthusiastic endorsement of the media which are also filled with such types.

    But because there aren’t many safe Lib Dem seats, there aren’t many Lib Dem MPs really committed to the conventional wisdom that the Orange Bookers represent. If things are equal and Clegg stays he might be able to use the loyalty of the Party and its fear of splits to continue his current path, If he goes, the remaining MPs are more likely to follow their instincts (including self-preservation) and support Labour, probably from outside government.

    [1] Again the same is true of those in the other Parties, especially with regard to promotion. Labour’s 1997 intake had a much larger proportion than usual of ‘normal’ people with diverse backgrounds and life experiences. In part this was because it was such a landslide and in part because of all-women shortlists. But the MPs who got to be ministers were mostly Westminster Bubble insiders.

  19. @ Old Nat,

    “Laws against racial discrimination are no longer necessary,” apparently.

    Kippers gotta kip, but I think it’s what Sir Humphrey would call a brave stance.

    Also, new thread.

  20. One issue with the Lab/Lib/SNP model is how to reconcile the long term party objectives of the first two with the last.

    Leaving aside Indepencence, which I admit is a big ask, if the SNP do well enough to hold the balance they will have done so by taking in the region of a combined fifty seats from their erstwhile partners.

    It is probably not churlish to suggest that both Labour and the LibDems will want those back.

    In the 2010 election the LibDems were fighting on two fronts and so by choosing coalition knew they would upset half their supporters, many of whom have left, but would keep those who liked the Tory coalition.

    If we have a three way alliance next time it will be with a party that they were fighting tooth and nail in Scotland and which if the agreement works could consolidate it’s gains.

    Do Labour & LibDem HQ’s in London embrace Government and leave their Scottish parts to their fate or try to undermine the SNP while being their partner at Westminster.

    It’s easy for Cameron to attack the SNP or use them as a club to beat Miliband, he has far more to gain in England & Wales than lose in Scotland, but how should Miliband & Clegg play it in the election.

    The tactics of how the Parties approach talk of a coalition are interesting and may well be a feature in the debates as I can’t see the “We’re Going All Out to Win” being sustainable when people want answers.

    I am pretty sure Cameron will want to link Labour & the SNP at every opportunity during any debate and it could well put Miliband on the back foot.

    As for the SNP I think maximum benefit for Scotland and we don’t believe the Tories will deliver that is really all we need to say.

    Peter.

  21. All down to you then, Mr. Nameless! No pressure, though.

  22. The DUP have categorically ruled out being part of any coalition whatever its political persuasion after the election and similarly categorically ruled out having any ministers in the next Westminster government.

    Yet posters here seem to repeatedly assume they will be willing and able to enter just such an arrangement.

    Are you suggesting they are outright lying?

  23. @ Jonathan,

    We’re talking about C&S, not coalition. It’s unlikely anyone, even the Lib Dems, is going to want a second coalition.

  24. One possible area of joint interest is over fiscal powers where both the DUP, in fact I think all the NI Parties and the SNP want control over business tax rates.

    Given I suspect PC want the same or similar for Wales I think it may be firmly on the agenda and might even be part of C&S discussions.

    Sort of, “One of the initials of the Initials” (DUP, PC,SNP).

    Peter.

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