Just the two regular polls in Sunday’s papers. The weekly Opinium poll for the Observer has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% (tabs), the weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has figures of CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% (tabs). Both very much in line with the broader picture of Lab & Con almost neck and neck, Labour just a touch ahead.

YouGov asked whether people would consider voting for each of the main GB parties and their awareness of their policies. Of the two main parties, 40% would consider voting Conservative, 42% Labour – a slightly bigger pool for Labour but only just. The pool of potential voters for the other three substantial parties is pretty similar – 23% for the Lib Dems, 26% for UKIP, 25% for the Greens.

Asked about how aware of are of each party’s policies, 63% say they know a lot or a fair amount about Tory policies, compared to 59% for Labour, 45% for UKIP and 37% for the Lib Dems, 27% the Greens. Note how more people think they know about UKIP policies than those of the Lib Dems – a sign of how the Lib Dems have struggled to get a clear message out from within coalition.

YouGov also reasked the “protest party” question they asked about UKIP last year about the Greens. They found 15% of people think that the Greens are a serious party with workable policies, 56% a protest party for those unhappy with the main parties. These are very similar to the figures for UKIP, with UKIP 17% thought they were serious, 62% a protest party.

Moving onto other issues, 51% of people would support a ban on MPs having second jobs, but only 25% would support it were it to be offset by a higher salary. Asked about the current £67,000 salary for MPs and the appropriate level or reward for the sort of people they’d like to be MPs, 32% think the current salary is too much, 16% too little, 46% about right.

Finally there were some questions on defence and what sort of threats Britain should be prioritising. 16% of people think that Britain spends too much on defence, 49% too little, 20% about the right amount. By 52% to 18% people think we should be focusing resources on defending against threats from Islamist terrorism and insurgents, like Islamic State, rather than potential threats from states like Russia. 50% of people think that the West’s sanctions against Russia haven’t been strong enough, but on balance people are opposed to even the sending of British troops to help train and advise the Ukrainian army – 43% are opposed with only 36% support.


376 Responses to “Sunday polling round up”

1 5 6 7 8
  1. UNICORN
    Taking your comment at face value (rather than as a bit of criticism) I am more than happy to put into words any observations that may have been obscured by jargon. There isn’t much point in my spending time composing comments if they just come across as incomprehensible ramblings.

    You’re helping us greatly in understanding the stats, but beware your use of English. Oldnat will be disappointed that there’s no reference to more than happy in the Tom Lehrer canon, but Bob Newhart explains it rather well in his examination of English Expressions. To be heard at http://dysonology.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/english-expressions.mp3 [9m 8Mb]

  2. @LordAshcroft: I shall be releasing another batch of marginal seats polling at the @ConHome conference at around 5pm tomorrow

  3. @LordAshcroft: CORRECTION Ishall be releasing another batch of marginal seats polling at the @ConHome conference at around 5pm on Wednesday

  4. I find that excluding the Ashcroft polls on May2015 causes an average increase in the Labour lead of about 2.4 points in the 23 seats polled in the 16th October and 5th November data releases. 10 seats are more Labour with Ashcroft included, 13 more Tory, seven of those by more than 5 points.

  5. @Amber

    I dislike Ashcroft polls because he doesn’t state which firm did the polling for him. Does anybody even know for sure who did the Scottish constituency polling for him?
    ______________________________________

    Anthony had this to say

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/page/5

    “Lord Ashcroft doesn’t officially confirm who carries out the polls he commissions, but the reality is that most of his constituency polls are carried out by Populus – not that there are many companies who do constituency polling anyway (it can only be done on the telephone, and Ipsos MORI don’t do it, so that leaves very few options). In this case Populus did NOT carry out the poll, so the errors here shouldn’t be taken as a reflect on Populus or on Ashcroft’s other polls”

    So my guess based on that would Populus as he is no longer using that other firm.

  6. Maybe I’m being dumb (“Again!” they all cry) but can someone explain this to me.

    If I run the swing in Ashcroft marginal polls for Con/Lab seats in England (only) in each month he has carried them out against UNS for the month in question (taking a straight average of all the polls from AW’s tables here)
    I find the following con to Lab swings:

    May: Ashcroft 5.7; UNS 4.9
    July: Ashcroft 4.7; UNS 5.4
    Aug: Ashcroft 5.7; UNS 5.4
    Oct: Ashcroft 4.5; UNS 4.5
    Nov: Ashcroft 8.0; UNS 4.5 (only 1 constituency in Ashcroft!)
    Dec: Ashcroft 3.7; UNS 4.5

    So by my reckoning, like all things Lord A it jumps about a bit but there is no real evidence that marginal swings are different to UNS, unless December is the start of a trend.
    Discuss.

  7. @John

    I support nor vote for neither Labour or Conservative, so am not biased, but I increasingly see support for a small Conservative lead increasing.

    I see that too.

    Though LAB have recovered a little from the Green shock in January, CON seem to have recovered a little bit more – possibly in terms of UKIP voters ‘coming home’ to that party.

    Anything could happen, of course, but there are two other reasons why CON have more reason to be happy:

    i. Government usually gains a bit more support as a GE approaches
    ii. Polls still seem to underestimate CON support. Not by as much as in the ‘Shy Tory’ days of 1992 and 1997 but it is still there.

    Of course most predictions ought to have factored such things in. I know I have. And I still see CON falling well short of 300 seats. Largest party. Most votes. But no OM.

    My own feeling for a long time has been that LAB/LIBDEM and SNP will work together. But I’m just starting to see the possibility of a continuation of CON/LIBDEM coalition. And what an anti-climax that would be…!!

  8. @Amber, actually pretty sure it is populous

    If you open the Glascow East poll in acrobat, and you press info, it tells you “RNye” as the author.

    Google

    r nye populous

    And have a look at the first result.

    I haven’t gone through all of them, but it does look like Populus.

  9. take out the ou on Populus – spellcheck fixed it, sorry.

  10. According to Kirkup in the Telegraph Tories think campaign is to narrow and needs to be more sunny,worse still Cameron said to have doubts and regrets not modernising more.The well connected scribe concludes things cannot go on like this for much longer.

    Milords timing is thereforee impeccable -well until 1030pm maybe and 5pm tomorrow

  11. MS reports that certainty to vote is the only reason Cons are ahead of Lab in today’s Ashcroft poll. Without applying such a rigid filter both parties are level (which is about as good as it usually gets for Lab in an Ashcroft poll (just two Lab leads all year).

  12. “. Government usually gains a bit more support as a GE approaches”

    This isn’t true since 1945, the opposition paradoxically has gained more times than the govt…it’s just that everyone remembers 1992…

    The notion that the tories will get anywhere near 300 is bizarre, considering they got 307 last time and the boundaries haven’t changed…people believe all kinds of crazy things.

    As Smithson ALWAYS points out. The tories beat labour by 11% in 2010. all but 1 of their seats is in england and wales. The chances of the tories winning 300 seats in 2015 are very remote…but nobody understands this at all.

  13. @LordAshcroft: CORRECTION I shall be releasing another batch of marginal seats polling at the @ConHome conference at around 5pm on Wednesday

    Corrections are becoming Ashcroft’s speciality.

  14. So, the Scottish constituency polls were most likely carried out by Populus.

    Would anybody like to comment on the strength & depth of their experience of Scottish polls & polling?

    How close were they to getting the referendum right?

    What was the VI of their Scottish poll that was done around the same time as their constituency polling?

    What was the overall VI of their most recent Scottish poll?

  15. @Peter Crawford

    It’s unlikely, but I think those tipping the Tories to get 300 assume that they will gain roughly as many from the LDs as they lose to Lab.

    I’m with you on this though. I don’t think the Tories will get anywhere close to 300.

  16. @Amber

    Well we know that Populus for their GB VI polls up until about a month ago were consistently saying that Lab and the SNP were pretty close. They have since changed their methodology.

  17. AMBER

    Stop being so fastidious over ole Crofties constituency polling.

    People might think you’re going to fear the results.

    Might I fling in punctilious leading onto Pedantic #moonbeams

  18. @David in France
    ‘i. Government usually gains a bit more support as a GE approaches’

    Not true in terms of the last month of election campaigns. A swing to the Opposition occureed in the final four weeks in – 1959 – 1964 – 1966 – 1970 – Feb 1974 – Oct 1974 – 1987 – 2001 – 2005 – 2010. 1983 was neutral in terms of swing – but the Tory vote fell a few points. That leaves just 1979 – 1992 – 1997. In two of those instances the incumbent was trailing badly – 1979/1997 – which hardly fits where we are today.

  19. So how many Tory seats become Labour/Tory marginals if UKIP takes 10% to 15% of the vote and Labour gets 30% of the 2010 LD vote?

    Look at South Thanet (with 2013 local government election resulkts in sqaure brackets):

    UKIP 38% (+32.5%)[36%]
    Labour 28% (-3.4%) [27%]
    Conservative 27% (-21%) [29%]
    LD 2% (-13.1%) [4%]
    Other 5% [4%]

    In South Thanet where did the LD vote go?

    As found by Survation in their February 2015 poll the results bear a remarkable resemblance to the 2013 local government election results as reported in Survation’s original November 2103 poll:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_United_Kingdom_constituencies,_2010%E2%80%9315#South_Thanet

    http://survation.com/new-constituency-polling-in-south-thanet/

  20. @ Barbazenzero

    “You’re helping us greatly in understanding the stats, but beware your use of English. Oldnat will be disappointed that there’s no reference to more than happy in the Tom Lehrer canon, but Bob Newhart explains it rather well in his examination of English Expressions. To be heard at http://dysonology.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/english-expressions.mp3 [9m 8Mb]”

    That is George Carlin, not Bob Newhart. Both were great deconstructors of words, but Newhart would never have used language like that.

  21. Graham
    It will be interesting to see what happens this time. Will the swing be to ‘the Opposition’ (i.e. Labour), or to ‘the opposition’ SNP, UKIP Green etc?

  22. @Andy Shadrack
    “…Survation’s original November 2103 poll:”

    Back to the Future?

  23. Unless Anthony’s sidebar records are wrong, Populus didn’t do referendum polling & they don’t do Scottish polling. So there’s no way to assess how reliable their polling is. Information which can be assessed for reliability is always useful; it’s less useful if you have to ‘take it on trust’.

  24. @Amber

    I don’t think referendum or other polls would help anyway – constituency polls are their own beast with different weightings etc…

    Why don’t you see how accurate he has been with his constituency polling vs by election results? I don’t think an English constituency is really that much different to a Scottish one.

  25. @Amber

    In all honesty, it’s a bit of a pic n mix when it comes to trust. So many different polling confections, all with bespoke layered fruit salad bowls.

    I’m sticking with YG.

  26. My personal take is look at the number of don’t knows – if that is massive, take the poll with a pinch of salt because we don’t really know what those don’t knows are going to do.

    And look at what rules are being used to allocate don’t knows and decide if those are at all reasonable considering the massive change in the Scotland political landscape – I don’t think anyone can really justify 50% of don’t knows going home when there has been this much upheaval.

  27. I don’t see what the problem with Ashcroft polling is? If he polls a batch of seats (lets say in Scotland) and they all show the same trend as in the national polls then all he’s confirming is the trend.

  28. No YouGov tonight?

  29. Amber Star
    My great uncle was” honest Sam” McGibbon, a Paisley bookie. You could always take him on trust!

  30. Latest YouGov poll (01 – 02 Mar):
    CON – 35% (+1)
    LAB – 32% (-2)
    UKIP – 15% (+1)
    LDEM – 7% (-1)
    GRN – 6% (+1)

  31. A good day for Con. A bad day for Lab.

  32. Well the swing-back has started peeps. PRESSMAN and his Ant & Dec takeaway are beginning to bite.

    That’s a cracker of a poll for the Tories.

    RAF
    “I’m sticking with YG”
    ____
    Had to rub it in ;-)

  33. @Amber Star

    Populus did internal polls for Better Together, who I think only published one internal poll (by Survation) during the whole campaign. Rick Nye wrote an article explaining the psephological rationale for their strategy in the days after the referendum. Jist: all things being equal Yes could have won, therefore No had to run a negative campaign instilling fear into enough potential Yes voters to put them off.

    http://www.populus.co.uk/item/Victory-for-NO-lay-in-targeting-the-right-people-with-right-message-and-ignoring-the-armchair-patriots/

  34. Yeah. I don’t believe in UNSs either, but this in Anthony’s Advanced Swingometer (Scots data from my 3 week average)

    Con 291 : Lab 278 : SNP 45 : LD 14 : NI 18 : Others 18

  35. I was telephone polled by populus for Ashcroft a few weeks back.

  36. @oldnat

    ”Con 291 : Lab 278 : SNP 45 : LD 14 : NI 18 : Others 18”

    I guess that could fit the ”Tories come first in votes and seats but Labour+SNP+LD forms a government” scenario

  37. Ukip up one and tory both up one ,green up one ? Likely or unlikely ?

  38. Roll A Hard Six

    Lab + SDLP + SNP + PC + Green = c. 330
    Con + LD + DUP + UKIP = c. 320

    Assume 5 seats go Left to Right in such a tight race, then both alliances = 325!

    LD or DUP are the kingmakers. :-)

  39. Ukip up one and tory both up one ,green up one ? Likely or unlikely ?

    Likely to be MOE :-)

  40. Bercow is standing again. Will any of the smaller English parties stand against him?

  41. Ashcroft tories up two and ukip up three -likely or unlikely.

  42. lab 35 con 34 in icm poll for the guardian tomorrow

  43. no reason to believe it’s any more than random sample variation in the polls. it’s not possible to say crossover has occurred yet.

  44. @Oldnat

    I suspect only UKIP would.

  45. @Barnaby Marder
    no reason to believe it’s any more than random sample variation in the polls. it’s not possible to say crossover has occurred yet.

    Or that it will occurred at all. Last month the Tories continued to average 32 on YG with Lab averaging 34. It will take quite a run of Tory leads to alter that. All we can say is it’s a good start to the month for them.

  46. @Barnaby Marder

    Where are you getting that from? I can’t see anything on twitter yet about an ICM / Guardian poll.

  47. If the Tories do open up a clear lead over Labour in the next few weeks then Westminster Labour in Scotland are going to have a torrid time trying to tell voters a vote for the SNP will let the Tories in.

    Their chances of clawing back any lost VI from the SNP will be very slender…..No pun intended towards Jim.

  48. Mr Bercow is an interesting Speaker.

    Given the working assumption that the next Parliament will be a coalition/minority Govt with a C and S agreement, a speaker who one side of the house isn’t very keen on could be quite lively.

  49. Barnaby Marder

    There does look like a modest crossover on Yougov, but could be a blip like the Labour improvement after the HSBC scandal broke. Overall picture is still neck and neck.

  50. @Roger Mexico

    Your comment in mod has not been released yet and nor has my response to @Hawthorn. Anthony must be otherwise occupied as he has normally done a round up of Monday’s polls by now.

1 5 6 7 8