YouGov London poll

I’m a little late with this, but just to flag up that yesterday’s Times had a new YouGov poll of London. Topline voting intentions there are CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 9%, GRN 6% (tabs here).

I sometimes hear a sort of London as the weathervane of the country argument, as London goes so the country goes. It doesn’t, despite a Tory mayor it’s Labour leaning compared to the country as whole, and it doesn’t necessarily swing in the same way as the rest of the country either. In 2010 while the Conservatives were seven points ahead in the country as a whole, Labour won in London by 2 points, and the Conservatives managed a smaller swing in London than elsewhere.

This poll suggests a 3 point swing from Con to Lab in London, the equivalent of a 1 point Conservative lead in national polling, so actually a little less than national polls are currently showing. It could be the Tories are doing a little better in London, or it could just be ordinary sample error – as ever, it’s just one poll and shouldn’t be overinterpreted. A three point swing in London would net Labour three or four gains from the Tories – Hendon, Brentford and Isleworth, Enfield North and, right on a knife edge, Croydon Central.


396 Responses to “YouGov London poll”

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  1. @ Mikey

    I seriously doubt that ST is a winnable seat for Labour, unless there is a very odd redistribution of UKIP vote, while keeping the Conservatives at bay.

    It’s a very simple question: would Labour in unwinnable seats where the choice is between UKIP and other parties, at least informally, advise people to vote in a way that would keep a party, whose every bit of policies, announcements, etc is in sharp contradiction with Labour, out?

  2. Couper – March I tell you March ?

  3. So no Tory crossover just yet with Lab inching ahead in the latest YouGov. Since the turn of the year there has been at best a slight drift to Con. It remains neck and neck.

  4. More Polldrums. YouGov back to Lab +1, Scottish polling all converging around SNP +15-20, UKIP winning a few seats but not breaking through.

    No change really since last Autumn.

  5. OLDNAT

    :-)

  6. @Lazlo

    It’s a very simple question: would Labour in unwinnable seats where the choice is between UKIP and other parties, at least informally, advise people to vote in a way that would keep a party, whose every bit of policies, announcements, etc is in sharp contradiction with Labour, out?
    _________________________________________

    Well we saw what happened in Rochester and Strood. So not explicitly, but by lack of funding, lack of campaigning, they can send the message.

    Silly if you ask me, it kills them locally in the longer term, but they have form.

  7. This is not meant to be a partisan post, but a possible explanation of Tory failure to make progress.

    The main promises I can remember the Tories making were:

    1) “Cast-iron” guarantee of a referendum – promise broken
    2) Abolish the deficit by 2015 – promise broken
    3) Reduse immigration from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands – promise broken

    In the light of this, how can they expect a last-minute victory?

  8. @ Couper 2802

    But if Scottish Labour want to comfort themselves thinking ‘We never needed to promise the Vow’ fair enough

    What a non-surprise – You seem to be incapable of commenting on polls without including a pointless, partisan shot at LiS.

  9. NORTHUMBRIANSCOT

    I read Ashcroft was polling in East Ren. A poster posted he/she received a call today in Neilston.

  10. Laszlo

    “It’s a very simple question: would Labour in unwinnable seats where the choice is between UKIP and other parties, at least informally, advise people to vote in a way that would keep a party, whose every bit of policies, announcements, etc is in sharp contradiction with Labour, out?”

    It’s not that simple. Here the official position of LiS is always vote Labour, but some have advocated voting Tory or LD in certain seats.

    Parliamentary arithmetic would suggest that electing more Tories would make it more difficult to form a minority government and that minor party MPs would be better.

    But local circumstances can encourage some to act against their own party’s best interests.

  11. @ Laszlo. I don’t agree. The Con majority over Labour in 2010 was by no means huge at a time when Labour were taking a big hit. Lab won 31% of the vote in the seat in 2010 which is higher than they are getting according to this poll tonight. That suggests some of their support has switched to UKIP. If Labour manage to claw back that lost 3% from UKIP Farage’s lead over them drops to 5% and its game on. So as I say no need for Lab voters to become tactical voters in a winnable seat.

  12. @ Richard

    Indeed this the big question. An extra 5% of loss and UKIP wouldn’t have won.

    But the question is still valid, are there no-crossing lines? Would Labour gain votes by declaring UKIP persona non grata in a longer term?

  13. @Mikey

    It was exactly the same situation in Rochester and Strood. Labour basically abandoned the seat in the by election.

    http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/labour-rochester/4459

    And look at the final result – it will be many many years before they can ever be competitive there again, if ever.

  14. Hmm.

    https://twitter.com/BjCruickshank/status/571077371236917249

    “SNP now at 5% in an all UK poll”

    If that’s true, that would suggest minimum of 4.5%, which would be 51.7% in Scotland, if the 8.7 of the UK poll is applied. 5% equates to 57%

  15. Going by the Survation poll (so caveats apply!), Labour are second in Thanet & should be working their socks off to beat Farage; he’s certainly not a shoo-in, according to this poll.

  16. @AC

    Good news on the Constituency Polling. Hopefully it’s part of a set of Ashcroft ones to be released next week at his polling seminar.

  17. @ Richard. Labour were squeezed in Strood and Rochester and frankly were happy for UKIP to damage the Tories. Lab are not being squeezed in South Thanet in what appears to be a three horse race. Its very unlikely they will take South Thanet but the right wing vote could end up being split between UKIP and Con leading to Lab sneaking it…unlikely but by no means impossible.

  18. Statgeek

    I wouldn’t trust anyone who doesn’t understand the difference between GB and UK.

  19. @Richard

    Labour have not abandoned South Thanet.

    I also don’t know whether the stories about R&S were true or not. I believe that @Norbold who did some campaigning there suggests that Labour were trying.

  20. @Amber
    Hear hear. Maybe it’s time for some LD bar charts – ‘Only Lab and UKIP can win here’…

  21. @ Amber Star. Indeed. Farage is by no means a shoo- in.

  22. Clever statisticians out there, is the combined Con/Lab vote share inching up?

  23. RAF

    I’m in Clacton. I don’t know about R&S. But I can tell you we put an enormous amount of work into Clacton, which is far less winnable than either of the Kent seats. There was no thought of Labour asking people to vote tactically for either UKIP or the Tories. Why would thry? They don’t want either of them. In addition the Party needs to hang on to its voters for local elections where it is probable that seats will be won, but not if the voters think the Party is telling them to vote for someone else.

  24. LRR – seems to me has been on average for the whole month.

    Maybe the next UKPR Average will have them at 66% combined (33% each) or even possibly 67%

  25. @ Little Red Rock.

    A year ago to the day YouGov polled Labour on 40% and Conservative at 34%..so a combined vote of 7% higher than today. There has been a slow inching up in their combined share of the vote in the past couple of months but from a very low base.

  26. I’m not sure if I’m convinced, but I appreciate the arguments against the point I raised.

  27. MS has tweeted that the Thanet South poll was funded by a UKIP donor. That really shouldn’t matter. But, as Survation’s methodology tends to show higher Ukip numbers in GB VI than in other polls, could it be a reason why the donor chose Survation to carry out the Thanet South poll?

  28. Should read…
    “But, as Survation’s methodology tends to show higher Ukip numbers in GB VI than other pollsters do…”

  29. Statgeek

    “SNP now at 5% in an all UK poll”

    If that’s true, that would suggest minimum of 4.5%, which would be 51.7% in Scotland, if the 8.7 of the UK poll is applied. 5% equates to 57%

    Yes, but you’re forgetting the effect of likelihood to vote, which many polls show is higher in Scotland. With a strict filter such as MORI’s this can have distorting effects and we’ve see SNP at 5% before

  30. So even in a thread specifically about a London poll, we’re back to Scotland. How I wish that ‘yes’ had won.

  31. @ Pete B

    There’s a new Scottish poll by TNS out tonight.

  32. What evidence does Chris have that the Tories will gain Twickenham? There isn’t any from where I’m sitting (which is in the same borough).

  33. Oh goodie. Let me guess

    SNP 46%
    Lab 28%
    Con 15%
    Lib 7%
    UKIP 4%

    or thereabouts.

  34. @ Pete B

    It’s up-thread. LiS30 SNP46 etc

  35. @ Pete B
    FWIW, The London poll, which is the header to this thread, isn’t hugely different to previous London polls by YG for the ES.

  36. ES?

  37. @Pete B
    The London Evening Standard who have stopped publishing YG’s London polls. The Times have stepped in.

  38. Thanks. Even though I follow this site quite frequently I do have trouble with some of the abbreviations. Goodness knows what it’s like for occasional visitors.

  39. @Amber
    Interestingly the front page story on the ES this evening as I passed the newsstand at Clapham Junction station on the way home was an NHS one. A private surgeon had allegedly delayed an NHS patient’s appointment to treat a private patient.

  40. RAF

    MS has tweeted that the Thanet South poll was funded by a UKIP donor. That really shouldn’t matter. But, as Survation’s methodology tends to show higher Ukip numbers in GB VI than in other polls, could it be a reason why the donor chose Survation to carry out the Thanet South poll?

    Smithson’s right, it was commissioned by Alan Bown who has paid for Survation polls before. The problems you get with Survation’s national polls because of their strange SEG weighting won’t apply here because the data “were weighted by age, sex and ward” only. It’s a fairly rough way of doing it, but in the only evidence we’ve had (by-elections) it doesn’t seem much worse.

    Survation seems to have become UKIP pollster of choice because they were the first one to show big VIs for them. This was usually put down to them being the first to prompt for UKIP on the main list (I don’t think it was the reason, but it’s what they think).

  41. Something very bizarre about the BBC quizzing someone about Savile.

  42. @LRR

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/conlab.png

    That’s twelve months of YG polls…Lab and con combined…5-poll rolling average. The survey says…maybe.

    @Pete B

    It’s only about Scotland if folk don’t talk about other things. I have seen Thanet, London, Scotland, Midlands & Wales. Not all about Scotland.

  43. Sorry, six months of data.

  44. This comment relates more directly to the previous thread in which @AW suggested that there had been a drop in Ukip VI between January and February. However it does have at least some bearing on the new polling evidence that Farage/Ukip are polling quite well in South Thanet.

    In comments yesterday, I indicated that I was sceptical about the statistical reliability of any recent Ukip drop. Various tests I did showed that the drop was not reliable. However, what I didn’t do was tune in properly to the tacit argument Anthony was making in his post. He presented Jan/Feb changes for 9 different pollsters with one (ComRes) subdivided into two based on the use of different polling methods. If you assume that these are ten different attempts to sample the change in question, then arguably you could use something like a t-test to determined whether then ten samples differ reliably from zero. (They do, with p =0.023 in a two-tailed test). In a slight refinement of this, I have used linear regression of UKIP VI against number-of-days-since-Jan1 to estimate the slope of the Ukip change independently for each of the 9 different pollsters. This yields a mean drop of 0.062 units a day (or 1.89) units a month, and these nine scores are again reliably different from zero (p=0.033, two-tailed).

    I have to say that I am still uneasy about treating this as solid evidence of a Ukip drops. There is a bit of cherrypicking involved in appealing to the results of a particular type of test and setting aside others that are less supportive. It is also unclear whether there is any independent justification for either for starting the comparison period on Jan 1 or for ending the process a few days before the end of February.

    All of that said, though, contrary to what I wrote yesterday it does in fact look as if there is at least some statistical support for a Ukip drop over this period.

  45. Statgeek

    How come I get

    Forbidden
    You don’t have permission to access /wp-content/uploads/2015/02/conlab.png on this server.

    errors when I visit your site? It doesn’t happen every time but it does happen about 60% of the time.

    Does anyone else get this?

  46. @ Old Nat

    There’s an interesting article – in the paper which must not be linked to – by Steve Richards, headed:
    “The BBC reports bewildering events but it fails to help us understand them.”

    Well worth reading.

    Also an article about Saville which mentions some of the politics but also mentions some details (to me, distressing details) which I hadn’t previously been aware of.

  47. I promised Anthony that I wouldn’t chat through the fence to Amber in the girl’s playground.

    Pity. She seems a nice girl. Maybe we can have a chat after school sometime.

    :-)

  48. South Thanet as compared to 2010:

    UKIP 39% (+33.5)
    Lab 28% (-3.4)
    Con 27% (-21)
    Green 3% (+3)
    LD 2% (13.1%)
    Other 1% (+1)

    So, remembering this is Farage, it would appear that votes are being, in this instance, drawn away from the Conservatives 8:1 as compared to Labour.

    Question where would the LD vote go? Does it infill Labour losses to UKIP or Conservative losses?

  49. @ Old Nat

    That’s why I didn’t respond to your earlier comment re tactical voting.

    But I wasn’t counting this topic as ‘the playground’; I assumed it was neutral territory.

  50. Hookeslaw
    I nearly added to my post about Tory promises that they had had some successes, and am happy to admit that now.

    I’m sorry if you think I have misrepresented the promises over the referendum and the deficit, but they were my understanding. Whatever complicated reasons you come up with, I don’t think that my perception will differ very much from many of the electorate.

    I do think that the feel-good factor is beginning to happen for many, because of falling petrol and food prices and pay rises are starting to outstrip inflation.

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