YouGov London poll

I’m a little late with this, but just to flag up that yesterday’s Times had a new YouGov poll of London. Topline voting intentions there are CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 9%, GRN 6% (tabs here).

I sometimes hear a sort of London as the weathervane of the country argument, as London goes so the country goes. It doesn’t, despite a Tory mayor it’s Labour leaning compared to the country as whole, and it doesn’t necessarily swing in the same way as the rest of the country either. In 2010 while the Conservatives were seven points ahead in the country as a whole, Labour won in London by 2 points, and the Conservatives managed a smaller swing in London than elsewhere.

This poll suggests a 3 point swing from Con to Lab in London, the equivalent of a 1 point Conservative lead in national polling, so actually a little less than national polls are currently showing. It could be the Tories are doing a little better in London, or it could just be ordinary sample error – as ever, it’s just one poll and shouldn’t be overinterpreted. A three point swing in London would net Labour three or four gains from the Tories – Hendon, Brentford and Isleworth, Enfield North and, right on a knife edge, Croydon Central.


396 Responses to “YouGov London poll”

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  1. TAXI for SLAB?

  2. Allan Christie

    Wow! Speedy fingers!

  3. NEW POLL S.Thanet:
    Farage/UKIP 39%
    Scobie/LAB 28%
    Mackinlay/CON 27%
    Driver/GRE 3%
    Timpson/LD 2%
    Murray/FUKP 1%

  4. @ AC

    If YouGov can find SNP voters in England Survation can find Cornish Nationalists on the Isle of Wight.. There’s Mrs Trepolpen in Ventnor for a start.

    And I remember when Plaid Cymru won the City University Students’ Union presidency in 1987.

  5. @AC /OldNat

    I think that suggests that TNS’s previous poll was probably understating the SNP lead. This one looks more in line with YG.

  6. NEW POLL S.Thanet: Farage/UKIP 39% Scobie/LAB 28% Mackinlay/CON 27% Driver/GRE 3% Timpson/LD 2% Murray/FUKP 1% AP 1%

  7. OLDNAT
    Allan Christie
    Wow! Speedy fingers!
    _____

    I have to confess you gave me the lead with your last post lol

  8. @AC /CMJ

    Good news for Ukip. Comfortable lead for Farage.

  9. THANET

    LibDems look a bit high

    SCOTLAND

    Isn’t that SLAB figure higher than the YG Cross breaks average?

  10. I am really disappointed about FUKPs performance.

  11. Is that it? The Farage poll is the big news….? Its not going to make any difference in the grand scheme of things.

  12. @ RAF

    For the Referendum, all the polling firms kept adjusting their methods &/or their panels so that they wouldn’t be out of line with each other.

    To begin with, they seemed to be too No leaning; but all the firms over-corrected. At the end of the day, they were popping out polls which were getting further away from the actual result.

  13. Quite frankly, if UKIP can’t win with Nigel Farage in Thanet, they have no hope anywhere.

  14. Interesting the Thanet S poll has Labour second though!

  15. IF there was a Scottish UNS, then TNS poll (I still think Candy was right in casting doubt on their panel) produces via Anthony’s Advanced Swingometer SNP 46 : Lab 12 : LD 1

  16. I seem to remember an earlier poll which did not show Farage in the lead in his constituency, so in that sense it is interesting news.

  17. @ Mikey

    But it will be the “news” won’t it? That will be the poll the papers cover and poor Mrs Trepolpen’s efforts will be forgotten

  18. ‘Quite frankly, if UKIP can’t win with Nigel Farage in Thanet, they have no hope anywhere.’

    I agree

  19. Little Red Rock

    “Isn’t that SLAB figure higher than the YG Cross breaks average?”

    Yes, but (assuming the gables don’t throw up dodgy issues) properly weighted polls are much better than crossbreaks – though the latter can indicate possible trends.

  20. @ Little Red Rock.

    I guess so but as CatmanJeff suggests if they can’t win with Farage they might as well give up. Its not even guaranteed yet either.

  21. RAF
    @AC /CMJ
    Good news for Ukip. Comfortable lead for Farage
    _______

    I think we will see Farage in Westminster in May and with Salmond almost certain to return to Westminster the sparks will fly.

    It’s going to be one el of a election night…

  22. Two horse race in Thanet then. UKIP and Labour. :)

  23. LITTLE RED ROCK
    @ AC
    If YouGov can find SNP voters in England Survation can find Cornish Nationalists on the Isle of Wight.. There’s Mrs Trepolpen in Ventnor for a start.
    And I remember when Plaid Cymru won the City University Students’ Union presidency in 1987.
    ________

    That’s a damn good point. ;-)

  24. If Nige wins in Thanet must he resign his Euro seat?

  25. LITTLE RED ROCK.
    That was my line, but I agree with you.

  26. TNS are not first division. Let’s not get all excited. Word on the ground is that Big Jim Murphy is making ground. Lots to like about Big Jim.

  27. Little Red Rock – yes. One isn’t allowed to be an MEP and a member of a national Parliament. His place would be taken by the next UKIP candidate on the South Eastern list.

  28. @LRR & ChrisLane

    Yes I believe he would. I expect it would be the same as any MEP resigning & the next in the list takes their place.

  29. @Little Red Rock

    No, unless a law is passed banning double jobbing, to include Cameron’s original definition (members of >1 parliament).

    IIRC Ian Paisley was a member of three parliaments at once (Stormont, Westminster and Brussels).

  30. Apologies if this has already been pointed out but the UKPR rolling average tonight seems to have several dozen polls, rather than the usual 20 or so, and includes many from 2007, 2010, 2014 ?

  31. An interesting proposition for Labour – vote Conservatives (tactically) in ST.

    Is it a vote winner or loser?

  32. JASPER22
    TNS are not first division. Let’s not get all excited. Word on the ground is that Big Jim Murphy is making ground. Lots to like about Big Jim
    _______

    My aunt said he’s busier than a cat covering crap on a marble floor.

  33. Checked Ian Paisley’s wiki and he was an MP (1970 to 2010) for the whole time that he was an MEP (1979 to 2004). Has the law been changed since 2004? Paisley only retired; he wasn’t forced out.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/jan/19/northernireland.devolution

    [Yes, the law was changed since then. Actually it was changed in 2002, but came into force in 2004. For the UK there was actually an exception and it didn’t take full force until 2009, because of the unusual case of the House of Lords… unless you’d recently inherited a peerage, it wasn’t possible to actually resign or leave the House of Lords in anyway. The leave of absence provisions for the Lords were introduced in order to get round that, so that peers can if they wish take leave of the House to stand and be elected to the European Parliament – AW]

  34. @ Laszlo

    Why would Labour voters want to vote tactically when they can win the seat?

  35. Allan Christie can always be relied upon to lower the tone.

  36. I’d have thought Labour would rather have Farage in parliament than a Tory, because it’s only Tories or Labour who will be the main party in the next government (this time).

  37. Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · now
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6?%

  38. What was tonight’s YG?

  39. Bramley,
    Quite so.

  40. @Amber Star

    Look at the referendum polls they were almost exactly right. Especially YouGov. What you are describing was the momentum of the campaign which the polls picked up. And of course Yes levelled the VI, because it was seen in private polls & hence the Vow.

    But if Scottish Labour want to comfort themselves thinking ‘We never needed to promise the Vow’ fair enough

  41. NumbrCrunchrPolitics [email protected] 15s16 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun:

    CON 33 (=)
    LAB 34 (+1)
    LIB 8 (=)
    UKIP 13 (-2)
    GRN 6 (=)

    Fieldwork 25th-26th

  42. YouGov/Sun:

    CON 33 (=)
    LAB 34 (+1)
    LIB 8 (=)
    UKIP 13 (-2)
    GRN 6 (=)

  43. @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6?%

  44. Glenda Jackson’s son is not convinced. He thinks polls can be manipulated.

    Dan Ho*ges @DPJHo*ges · 2 mins 2 minutes ago
    @talktoharris1 I have commissioned polls from companies in the past (not Survation) and discussed – in terms – how to get best result

    I await Roger’s expert verdict…..

  45. PB.COM

    SNP…43 seats

    LAB…16 seats..

    TORY..0

    LIB…0….

    I really can’t see the Tories losing all of their seats north of the border.

  46. Bramley

    You have no idea how long it took to train Allan to call, it “crap”!

  47. @Jasper
    “Word on the ground is that Big Jim Murphy is making ground. Lots to like about Big Jim.”

    Sounds like a prediction by Huggy Bear.

  48. South Thanet Labour gain?

    Interesting times in old Kent.

    I lived briefly in the seat and you can see why residents might be tempted to vote for anyone promising to change the current economic malaise it suffers from.

  49. Oh well no crossover

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