YouGov London poll

I’m a little late with this, but just to flag up that yesterday’s Times had a new YouGov poll of London. Topline voting intentions there are CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 9%, GRN 6% (tabs here).

I sometimes hear a sort of London as the weathervane of the country argument, as London goes so the country goes. It doesn’t, despite a Tory mayor it’s Labour leaning compared to the country as whole, and it doesn’t necessarily swing in the same way as the rest of the country either. In 2010 while the Conservatives were seven points ahead in the country as a whole, Labour won in London by 2 points, and the Conservatives managed a smaller swing in London than elsewhere.

This poll suggests a 3 point swing from Con to Lab in London, the equivalent of a 1 point Conservative lead in national polling, so actually a little less than national polls are currently showing. It could be the Tories are doing a little better in London, or it could just be ordinary sample error – as ever, it’s just one poll and shouldn’t be overinterpreted. A three point swing in London would net Labour three or four gains from the Tories – Hendon, Brentford and Isleworth, Enfield North and, right on a knife edge, Croydon Central.


396 Responses to “YouGov London poll”

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  1. First. And all that.

    Are London polls likely to become more regular now, given elections for Assembly/Mayor in a year?

  2. IG1234 – they will probably be more of them because of the general election (ditto for Wales and Scotland), but doubt there will be lots of mayoral ones until later in the year or early next year.

  3. The one thing I’d say about 2010 was that there had been a much bigger swing against Labour in London in 2005 (partly Labour dropping more post Iraq, partly the Tories gaining more than nationally). So part of the difference was that being unwound…

  4. Certainly my impression in Oval is that Labour is doing better here than perhaps since the early 1980’s…but there are so many variables even within inner London…I am inclined to think London most particularly but the cities generally have become a little more Labour/Green/LibDem left leaning over two decades and slightly less Conservative, even in the suburbs – but that may be no more than rose tinted spectacles and too much pink gin.

  5. Still shows we’re neck and neck.

  6. @ Anthony

    Since the LD vote has dropped from 22.1% in 2010 to 8%, assuming polling accuracy, to whom do the 7 Lib Dem seats likely go?

    Further, on the surface it looks like UKIP and Green have benifited from the demise of LD, but is that really the case.

    Finally are there any seats where UKIP or Green could do very well. In other words is UKIP and Green support constituency concentrated within London?

  7. Hmm. Compared to the daily YG polls (average of 10 daily polls in brackets):

    CON 34% (32.5%)
    LAB 42% (37.8%)
    LDEM 8% (8.4%)
    UKIP 9% (12.6%)
    GRN 6% (7.7%)

    Will it be the stuff London news?

  8. @ Statgeek

    I wrote about this statistical variance earlier and assume it is all about sample size and sampling error at lower respondent numbers.

  9. London is a weathervane. The reason that the swing to the Conservatives in 2010 was less than in the rest of England was because in 2005 London had a much bigger swing to the Conservatives than England as a whole. Bexleyheath & Crayford. Putney, Wimbledon, Ilford North, Croydon Central, Hammersmith & Fulham and Enfield Southgate were won by the Conservatives off Labour in London itself. Braintree, St Albans, Hornchurch, Reading East and Welwyn Hatfield were won in the outer commuter belt. See here for more details: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/gainsandlosses_con.stm

    Fhe failure by the Conservatives in London in 2010 to make meaningful gain was an early sign of the limitations the Conservatives would have in growing their vote in 2015.

    However, a word of caution. Opinion polls for London can be unreliable because such a big proportion of the London population is disenfranchised. All of those non-U.K/non-Irish/non-Commonwealth don’t have a vote and there are large numbers of 21-25 year olds that are living away from their parents and haven’t registered to vote.

  10. What IS happening at Survation?

    Survation. [email protected] · 49s49 seconds ago
    **POLL ALERT** – We’ll have some new and interesting constituency polling here at 10pm – stay tuned…

  11. Where is this London you speak of?

    Peter

  12. This poll looks like MoE to me.

    All four of those mentioned by AW will (unless strange happens) fall to Labour in the GE, with in all probability another 4-5 seats at least also falling their way.

    As for the Tories, they will be looking to uproot Cable in Twickenham, and also make inroads in other LD parts of suburban South/South West London, such as Sutton and Cheam, Kingston and Surbiton, and Carshalton and Wallington.

  13. Survation………more confusing figures no doubt on the way…

  14. @ Little Red Rock

    Do not get me wrong, I am not arguing against the possibility of swing but I am now asking about the probability of it occurring and the extent to which it might.

    I have seen a minor party obtain a bounce after a TV leaders debate to 16% or 17% and then only attain 12.2% on election day.

    But more recently I have seen in the European UK elections a minor party be underestimated by pollsters by 1% to 2%, and then have seen the same phenomena recently in the Queensland and Hamburg state elections.

    In the former election the social democratic party made huge gains. The problems with my cross analysis is that each election used a different voting system so what I am perceiving may not happen under FPTP.

    But then I have always challenged conventional wisdom and have sometimes been proven right.

  15. Survation being trailed heavily on Twitter.

  16. @Jasper

    Survation could say it will be dry in the Atacama desert tomorrow and the local towns would sell out of umbrellas.

  17. @ Andy Shadrick

    I would prefer the largest two parties to come up with a more positive message than, “A vote for UKIP/Green etc is a wasted vote” or “Vote Nige, get Ed / Vote Green, get Dave” But I fear that that is what we are likely to see.

    Like you, I think that younger green voters may not respond well to the message, “yours is a wasted vote”. Labour may pick up a few Green votes in marginals. Not many is my guess, but in this election a few might be critical.

    Whether the 5% that AW identifies as Con to UKIP switchers will switch back is hard to say. My guess is that Con will probably pick up more UKIP votes than Labour will Green but they might not be where it matters.

    It is on a knife edge and a well/poorly received budget, a good (or bad) performance in a debate, if we have any, or an “event” such as Mrs Duffy or one of UKIP’s more outspoken candidates saying something extraordinary may make all the difference.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if it is actually the DUP who gets to decide who occupies Number 10.

  18. When is this Survation poll expected?

  19. 1 hour and 14 minutes and counting.

  20. We have had so many polls recently that are “interesting”and then not.Just ignore.

  21. RAF:
    I think the Cons will defeat Lib Dems like Vincent Cable; it looks like being a strange and exciting GE night and following day:
    SNP taking swathes of ex Labour seats.
    Lab taking about forty Tory seats
    Tories taking many LD seats in E and W.
    Lab taking many LD seats
    SNP taking Lib Dem and Con seat.

  22. @Andy

    …yes…well…I see Labour up and UKIP down, which makes me wonder about weighting in London-specific polling (either this stand-alone one, or a lack of weighting in the daily polls).

  23. Given the local government elections in Tower Hamlets and George Galloway’s previous election as an MP for Respect in Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005, is there any possibility of an upset for Labour in one of their inner city London seats?

  24. Evening all and feeling rather depressed at the ole footy. Celtic & Liverpool out of Europe…..YNWA..

    Anyway London polling…

    With the ever changing demographics/ethnic make up in London and the last census returning a result of 44.9 per cent White British for the city then I can’t see this as natural territory for the Tories anymore so therefore subsequent elections will probably show a dwindling Tory support.

    You have to be honest here, England is getting more like America where most of the large metropolitan areas tend to elect those to the left and the more middle class and white the area the more Republican/Tory it is.

  25. @ STATGEEK

    I will simply observe that the last YouGov/Evening Standard poll for London prior to the 2014 European election overestimated LD support by 2.2% and UKIP support by 4.1% and undersestimated Green by 1.9%. They were within .5% for Conservative and .3% for Labour. Poll was taken May 6-8th, and election was 22nd.

  26. RAF
    @Jasper
    Survation could say it will be dry in the Atacama desert tomorrow and the local towns would sell out of umbrellas
    ______

    Well butter my butt and call me a biscuit boy that made ole Honky Tonk smile. :-)

  27. Does anyone do a “Midlands” poll? I’ve not seen anything much like that, despite that it would seem a good place to do one considering the number of marginals.

    But, how to define “Midlands”? It’s not so easy to delineate as London, Scotland, Wales etc.

  28. OLDNAT
    What IS happening at Survation?
    Survation. [email protected] · 49s49 seconds ago
    **POLL ALERT** – We’ll have some new and interesting constituency polling here at 10pm – stay tuned
    __________

    Now that’s an interesting tweet.

  29. KeithP – it would be easy to delineate (we’d do the government regions, East Midlands plus West Midlands).

    It doesn’t happen because there isn’t really a client for it – you get London polls because of the Standard, LBC and so on. You get Scottish polls because there are Scottish newspapers (and because the dynamic there is so different even GB papers are sometimes interested). Welsh polls are relatively rare, but happen for ITV Wales and BBC Wales.

    Beyond that regional polls are very rare. In the past there have VERY occasionally been Yorkshire polls for the Yorkshire Post. Once upon a time there used to be a chap who ran a market research company in the South West who ran South West only polls, but he sadly died a couple of years back and the polls went with him.

  30. I don’t know what exactly constitutes ‘London’ in this YG poll but surely Labour’s Mansion Tax proposals will be seen as a massive negative to most Londoners?

  31. @ RAF

    Survation could say it will be dry in the Atacama desert tomorrow and the local towns would sell out of umbrellas.

    Survation did the best polling for the No/Yes referendum. Averaging their 3 September polls gave No a 6 point lead (actual 10).

  32. @Amber
    “Survation did the best polling for the No/Yes referendum. Averaging their 3 September polls gave No a 6 point lead (actual 10).”

    Accepted. However their reputation has taken a few knocks recently.

  33. Chris 40 seats from Cons to Lab would need over a 3% swing in the incremental marginals and very good.
    Reckon 25ish myself.

  34. Wasn’t it Survation who did the LD “comfort polling”? Could it just be some of those LD polls which are now being released?

  35. @Amber

    Indeed it was. But they put out a press release a couple of days ago that they did not consider them to be “Survation” polls (they just swept up and made the tea) and would not be publishing them.

  36. Crossover prediction ……. if the Cons are ahead tonight crossover has started. If not it is back to business as usual.

    This is because of the pattern, for a while Labour & Conservatives were close on average % but Labour was always in the lead. Now we see more and more Conservative leads so if Conservatives are in the lead tonight then it’s crossover time…..

  37. NorthumbrianScott
    Read this comment from Scotgoespop ..

    “East Ren is in. Got a call yesterday. In Neilston, the “labour” wing of the constituency”

    Presumably this will be the second batch of Ashcroft polling.

  38. I don’t personally believe inner city areas in this country are anything like America. There is a divide in the US that simply doesn’t exist here in Blighty.

  39. @ RAF

    Thank you – I didn’t know that Survation had ‘disowned’ the LD constituency polls.

  40. The Survation figures are eagerly anticipated by the Twitterati…

  41. Jasper

    Who’s post are you referring too? I can’t see any comment that has referred to “inner city areas” or implying “divide”, however in my own post I touched upon demographics and ethnic make up.

  42. @Jasper

    It probably doesn’t help that Survation have referred to the soon to be released data as a #pollercoaster.

  43. It’s just one poll…..it’s just one poll….look at the trend…look at the…..

    Bloody Hell! That is sensational!

    Just look at the Mebyon Kernow performance in the Isle of Wight cross breaks!

  44. Mike Smithson [email protected] · 3s3 seconds ago
    New Scottish poll coming out at 10pm

  45. LITTLE RED ROCK

    Two points…Survation. [email protected] 2h2 hours ago
    **POLL ALERT** – We’ll have some new and interesting constituency polling here at 10pm – stay tuned… #pollercoaster #ge2015

    and…….since when did Mebyon Kernow stand on the Isle of Wight? They are a Cornish nationalist party who just happen to have 6 councilors on Cornwall council.

  46. @AC

    Dodgy crossbreaks obviously :)

  47. I think that all the talk of Greens reverting to Labour and UKIP to Labour or Con is misguided. Both of these parties reach voters who have either never voted before or who gave up years ago.

    It could be argued that these are less liekly to turn out, but it seems to be a factor that very few people take into account.

  48. Anthony, the last page of that London poll is wrong, the weights do not agree to the first page and weighted totals = unweighted totals.

  49. SNP extend lead over LAB in Scotland to 16% according to new TNS poll.
    SNP 46+5
    LAB 30-1
    CON 14-2
    LD 3-1
    GRN 3-3
    UKIP 3+1

  50. SNP extend lead over LAB in Scotland to 16% according to new TNS poll.
    SNP 46+5
    LAB 30-1
    CON 14-2
    LD 3-1
    GRN 3-3
    UKIP 3+1

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