YouGov London poll

I’m a little late with this, but just to flag up that yesterday’s Times had a new YouGov poll of London. Topline voting intentions there are CON 34%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 9%, GRN 6% (tabs here).

I sometimes hear a sort of London as the weathervane of the country argument, as London goes so the country goes. It doesn’t, despite a Tory mayor it’s Labour leaning compared to the country as whole, and it doesn’t necessarily swing in the same way as the rest of the country either. In 2010 while the Conservatives were seven points ahead in the country as a whole, Labour won in London by 2 points, and the Conservatives managed a smaller swing in London than elsewhere.

This poll suggests a 3 point swing from Con to Lab in London, the equivalent of a 1 point Conservative lead in national polling, so actually a little less than national polls are currently showing. It could be the Tories are doing a little better in London, or it could just be ordinary sample error – as ever, it’s just one poll and shouldn’t be overinterpreted. A three point swing in London would net Labour three or four gains from the Tories – Hendon, Brentford and Isleworth, Enfield North and, right on a knife edge, Croydon Central.


396 Responses to “YouGov London poll”

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  1. @Amber Star

    My husband sees it as Blue & Gold!! No that’s not one of the options. Then he says smugly ‘I have very good eyesight’

  2. @Mikey

    “Kudos to Northumbrian Scot although would PC Plum really be a Green?”

    Maybe not. But half the children in the nursery are going to vote Green someday. The other half won’t turnout.

  3. @J R Tomlin

    To be honest I discounted the previous TNS for reasons I gave, plus the idea that house proud people at home with time to be interviewed might distort the sample somewhat. I will await more polls before saying anything definite apart from ‘SNP is not losing support in any substantial way’.

  4. COUPER2802

    My reaction to the original TNS poll was that it was probably an outlier. This one just raises my eyebrows. That is just a large jump. I might, however, argue with your ‘SNP is not losing support in any substantial way’ that it should be: ‘SNP is not losing support at this time.”

  5. Northumbrianscot

    I did say earlier that some of these geographic crossbreaks contained obvious nonsenses!

    However, on gender balance, these are the crossbreaks in the 2015 full polls –

    SNP M 40 F 40 : Lab M 25 F 21 – Survation Jan
    SNP M 56 F 49 : Lab M 21 F 27 – MORI Jan
    SNP M 40 F 39 : Lab M 31 F 31 – TNS Jan
    SNP M 49 F 46 : Lab M 25 F 28 – YG Jan
    SNP M 45 F 46 : Lab M 28 F 27 – Survation Feb
    SNP M 44 F 48 : Lab M 28 F 32 – TNS Feb

    If the variation is due to changes in differences in gender balance, it might only be a pollster specific factor, and not a general reflection of the population.

  6. @Couper

    “My husband sees it as Blue & Gold!! No that’s not one of the options. Then he says smugly ‘I have very good eyesight’”

    Blue & Gold. Me too!

  7. @J R Tomlin

    Yes I agree I didn’t phrase the last sentence correctly. You are more accurate. I think the trend is SNP climbing slightly and Labour falling back slightly this year, would need Unicorn’s or other statistician to prove that.

  8. AMBER STAR
    Gosh, some people here must have a LiS “panic” detector (also know as: A risible, partisan comment generator).

    But there’s no need for anyone to be partisan when Prof. C sums the TNS poll up so well with:
    The only ray of possible sunshine that Labour can bring to these findings is that the fieldwork for the poll was done over an extended three week period beginning at the end of January. Consequently, if the party has made any very recent progress it may not be fully reflected in this poll’s figures.

    See http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/02/labour-still-trail-devolution-proposals-cut-little-ice/

  9. @Norbold

    You must have very good eyesight too :-)

  10. My 2 year old sees it as blue as do I but MrsNorthumbrianScot sees it as as White and is busy telling confused wee boy he’s wrong.

  11. I ran it through Photoshop’s eye dropper tool and it’s #7A6D41 and #B7C5E9, apparently.

    50 more of my garden signs have arrived to go out all over Hallam, and just putting the finishing touches to some more literature. I did not envisage this much design work coming my way when I went to Sheffield.

  12. @Couper

    I have looked at both of those, and I can’t find any evidence of movement since November. Part of the problem is the relative rarity of Scotland-only polls, and the forced reliance on high-MoE crossbreaks from broader polls.

    I think the best description is that we have a new post-referendum stability with nothing much appearing to change.

  13. @ Barbazenzero

    I don’t ‘get’ your point. It’s the “panic” meme that’s risible. Nobody in the LiS team is in a “panic”. They have a tough job to do; & they’re getting on with doing it.

  14. For Statgeek (and any other Fife based Balamory fans)

    Rodd Christensen who played Spencer in Balamory became a born again Christian in the US and then came over as a missionary to bring the word of The Lord to the Godless Fifers and subsequently became a Stagecoach Fife bus driver.

    Hence my designation of him as a Republican.

    His daughter went to Inverkeithing High but the whole family has moved back to America as she is pursuing her dream of becoming a porn star. Apparently she’s doing very well.

  15. Not sure what dress color has to do with polls, but I thought the Wired article was interesting. ;D

    http://www.wired.com/2015/02/science-one-agrees-color-dress/

  16. For Statgeek (and any other Fife based Balamory fans)

    Rodd Christensen who played Spencer in Balamory became a born again Christian in the US and then came over as a missionary to bring the word of The Lord to the Godless Fifers and subsequently became a Stagecoach Fife bus driver.

    His daughter went to Inverkeithing High but the whole family has moved back to America as she is pursuing her dream of becoming an adult movie star.

    (Probably the first time anyone has had to reformat a comment about Balamory to avoid the Automod filter!) changed job description.

  17. @Andy Shadrack

    “How much does Scotland impact the UK wide polling result?”

    Yougov’s weighting gives Scotland 8.7% of the entire poll. Yougov don’t cover Northern Ireland though, so we really mean ‘GB’ when we say ‘UK’.

    The simple calc is to multiply 1% nationally by 11.49 to get its Scottish equivalent, but bear in mind that 3% nationally can be anywhere from 2.5% to 3.4% (27.6% – 39.0% in Scottish terms, which is a fair old gap).

  18. Regarding the dress, I’m seeing lilac and brown. (The brown is too dark to be gold but it has warm tones in it, so can’t be black).

  19. Would that the comments on here regarding Scotch polling matters were circa a tenth of all comments..

  20. Jasper

    That’s easily solved. You just post more on Irish, Welsh, Cornish and Yorkshire polling to redress the balance.

  21. Interesting article by Survation justifying why they did not use 2010 recall in their South Thanet poll.

    http://survation.com/why-survation-do-not-adjust-our-constituency-telephone-polls-based-on-how-people-voted-in-2010/

    1. Too much population movement

    2. Too many elections => false recall

  22. I like this:

    “In Clacton by-election polling by both Survation and Lord Ashcroft, 8% of respondents said they had voted UKIP in 2010. However, UKIP did not stand in Clacton in 2010.”

  23. @Jasper

    You’re right, we don’t discuss Whisky enough.

    Apparently Sean Connery is who we’d most like to drink Scotch with (22%). Well ahead of both Alex Salmond and Subo.
    http://news.stv.tv/scotland/308437-sean-connery-is-voted-as-britons-ideal-whisky-drinking-partner/

  24. @JR Tomlin / Couper / Unicorn

    Now…my MAD calcs generally run on 30-polls, but they are not time weighted. However, I also run a 25-poll weighted spreadsheet that I update occasionally, although this only records the 25 polls it is given.

    So…based on the discussions, I have gone and found the most recent 25 polls…the 25 polls preceding it and so on. Each 25-poll set has had the weighted MAD applied to it, so each is a stand-alone block of polls, with none of the polls from any block overlapping another.

    Top chart:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/2014/09/here/

  25. @STATGEEK

    Yes that was my feeling but I needed someone to do the stats.

    Interestingly we just recently had a converstation regarding graphs v statistics which I didn’t really follow. But here is an example @Unicorn says statistical nothing is happening but your graph tells a different story.

  26. @Candy

    This pic on the Beeb page:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-31659395

    White and gold for me (sample of 1 – 100% turnout :)).

    @northumbrianscot

    Balamory…of no interest whatsoever (along with 99% of all tv programs).

    I once got on the wrong train from Waverly to Kirkcaldy, and had to get off at Inverkeithing and wander about at 1am waiting for a lift…not bad. Better than Aberdeen train station. :))

  27. @Couper

    I think in general (and especially when selecting blocks which then get trimmed for outliers), it’s important to make it clear how the data is selected.

    Had I taken the most recent 15, next 15 and so on, the graphs might be completely different as ebb and flow of polls happens (and people read different narratives from them).

    My MAD quarterly history (again 30-poll unweighted) charts show the progress of the MAD data, with each each new poll pushing the oldest old and so on:

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/polling/median-absolute-deviation-mad/mad-quarterly-history/

    I might get round to doing one like that for the 25s, but it takes a while…Friday night…meh!

  28. @COUPER

    “@Norbold
    You must have very good eyesight too :-)”

    I have when I put my glasses on…..

  29. In my old job I was heavily involved with colour analysis measurement etc, and colur really is complicated.

    People can see different colours. Women tended to be better than men at detecting such things. Different lighting sources can make a massive difference too (different lighting changing the perceived colour too – metamerism).

    BTW, I clearly get blue and not a bit of white….and yes, if I am allowed to dress the kids solo, I do get into trouble at times…..

  30. @STATGEEK

    OK you have convinced me Statistics winsover graphs – there is no change

  31. @Mr Nameless

    I ran it through Photoshop’s eye dropper tool and it’s #7A6D41 and #B7C5E9, apparently.

    I assume they are RGB values in hex decimal form?

  32. Need to factor in that the Green Party is not running in Aberdeen North, Airdrie and Shotts, Argyll and Bute, Ayrshire North and Arran, Banff and Buchan, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, Cumbernaud, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East, Dumfries and Galloway, Dunbartonshire West, East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmaghow, Falkirk, Glenrothes, Gordon, Inverclyde, Kilmarnoch and Loudon, Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath. Lanark and Hamilton East, Linlithgow and Falkirk East, Livingston, Motherwell and Wishaw, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Ochil and Perthshire South, Orkney and Shetland, Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Renfrewshire East, Rutherglen and Hamilton West – 27 seats

    And that Lib Dems still do not have any candidates in Aberdeen North, Aberdeen South, Airdrie and Shotts, Banff and Buchan, Cumbernaud, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East, Dumfries and Galloway, Dunbartonshire West, Edinburgh East, Falkirk, Glenrothes, Kilmarnoch and Loudon, Lanark and Hamilton East, Linlithgow and Falkirk East, Livingston, Midlothian, Moray, Motherwell and Wishaw, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Ochil and Perthshire South, Paisley & Renfrewshire North, Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Stirling – 22 seats

  33. Sorry, hexdecimel is what I meant.

  34. We don’t get nearly enough coverage of Yorkshire First (ie none).

    I had no idea that they have selected seven candidates so far – interestingly one in the capital (London not York).

    http://www.yorkshirefirst.org.uk/election-candidates/

    Presumably, like any new party, they are unlikely to make much of an inroad at this stage, but it would be interesting to see how an English regionalist party develops.

  35. James quoted;
    “In Clacton by-election polling by both Survation and Lord Ashcroft, 8% of respondents said they had voted UKIP in 2010. However, UKIP did not stand in Clacton in 2010.”

    Does anyone know how the pollsters do constituency polling? Do they ask voters which constituency they are from? If so I expect a good many wouldn’t know the name.
    Do they stand in the middle of Clacton and interview people? If so, they would be bound to get a few from outside the constituency who had come to do shopping or whatever.
    Also, some people may hve moved into Clacton since the last GE.

    I’m just thinking that though false recall certainly exists, there are reasons why it might not be as high as people think.

  36. @Oldnat

    I have lived in Yorkshire and been politically active for decades, and not come across them.

    I’ve read their objectives and they seem non-political. They are all process and no policy.

    Their candidates are obviously bright and well educated.

  37. @OldNat
    Not in London, anyway.

  38. @ STATGEEK

    So would a drop in SGP support from 8% to 1% and rise in Scottish LD support from 2% to 10% (on a Scottish crossbreak) explain a change in the GB wide poll, such that LD could go from 7% to 8% and GP drop from 7% to 6%?

    I make it about .52%, but rounding up or down could help explain a 2% gap could it not?

  39. What was Ashcroft’s GB VI poll finding today?

  40. Remember if somone moves they could have voted UKIP in another seat in 2010.

  41. AMBER STAR
    It’s the “panic” meme that’s risible.

    Fair enough. I try hard not to rise to the bait but it isn’t always easy. I’m sure there are more than a few unionist posters you would prefer took a more measured view, but AW does a good job with the snippers when things start to get out of control.

  42. Are there any other polls due out before the end of the month other than YouGov/Sunday Times?

  43. new thread

  44. Andy Shadrack

    The Lib-Dem site shows they only have 23/59 candidates in Scotland.

    http://www.libdems.org.uk/general_election_candidates#Scotland

    The Lib Dems in Ayrshire used to have a constituency structure – then one for all constituencies, but judging by their website, it too is moribund.

    Any candidates here will just be names, so that they can pretend that they are a national party.

  45. @ OLD NAT

    I said that the SGP supporters would swing behind SNP and if you look at the two TNS polls there it is right on queue.

    I am amazed that Orkney and Shetland is still in the win collumn for LD and note the Green have declared they will not run there – but I wonder if Labour and Conservative will not run either.

    It really will be “save the furniture time” in Scotland and you may be the first area of the UK to return to a two party system with only Labour and SNP MPs.

  46. @Andy

    Margin or Error will swallow those shifts in polling anyway. I wouldn’t waste too much time worrying about them.

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