Two new polls today – the daily YouGov poll for the Sun and the monthly Survation poll for the Daily Mirror.

Survation in the Mirror have topline figures of CON 28%(-3), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 10%(+3), UKIP 19%(-4), GRN 4%(+1). Lots of sharp changes there since their previous poll, but usual caveats apply – the Tory lead in Survation’s previous poll was rather unusual in itself, today’s large Labour lead also unusual, hence the large changes from one to the other. Note also the drop in UKIP support – Survation consistently show the highest UKIP support, so while 19 is large compared to other pollsters’ figures, its a notable drop from Survation.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%. A two point Conservative lead from YouGov, the first time they’ve shown that for just over a month.

The bigger picture remains the same. The Conservatives probably haven’t moved ahead, or we’d be seeing that across most of the polls, when actually they are averaging out at a tiny Labour lead. Neither is there is big swing to Labour, or we’d be seeing that across most of the polls, when actually they all just seem to be showing normal variation around the margin of error. In terms of the Labour vs Conservative race, 2015 so far has been largely static. The only trend that may be meaningful is the drop in UKIP support.

ukipdrop

Now that Survation have published their monthly poll we can compare UKIP’s January and February scores across all the pollsters (I’ve taken an average for those companies who publish more than once a month). There does seem to be a pretty consistent fall in UKIP support, perhaps slightly obscured by the fact that the most frequent pollster, YouGov, shows one of the more modest drops and the second most frequent pollster, Populus, changed their methodology at the start of February in a way that increased UKIP support.


359 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Survation polls”

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  1. First?

  2. @Anthony

    Is there any obvious evidence yet where this lost UKIP support is going or is too early and muddled to say?

  3. UKIP have hardly had a look in this year as Labour v Tories dominate the news….also immigration stories are not as prominent as they were ..which are UKIPs lifeblood….I am guessing this will change as the election moves closer and Farage gets his airtime….and then another shift upwards in the polls for UKIP is likely.

  4. @crossbat11

    This is the billion dollar question – if UKIP fades / continues to fade will it be last in first out (good for Labour) or more balanced (good for the Tories) or I don’t want to waste my protest vote (good for the Lib Dems)

    I would say too early to tell but with more 34s and 35s for both of the major parties, it isn’t good for the Lib Dems and my gut says it will be welcomed by at Tory Central Office than at the Labour HQ

  5. Survation’s England only figures give Labour a lead – where the Tories led by more than 11% in 2010. Scotland continues to depress the UK-wide Labour vote but Labour are still on for big wins from the Tories in England on a 6% swing or more. Any swing back to Labour in Scotland would be decisive.

    What impact will today’s Green car crash have, if any, on Lib Dem-Green switchers – could they return to Labour? Are UKIP voters returning to the Tories or both main parties?

  6. @Tom Chadwick

    There is a theory about UKIP / immigration / Europe offered in the YouGov article about the increased support for IN in an EU referendum, which is that it has moved in line with economic confidence. As that has recovered, so has support for EU membership (don’t rock the boat, if you will).

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/24/eu-referendum-record-lead/

  7. Early days but I reckon we will start seeing a sharp decline in the UKIP VI and a subsequent rise in the Tory VI.

    When Farage starts getting more time on the box then he like the Sheila for the Greens will get into a mess over policy or lack of them and will flap and flop into a horrible mess like a jellyfish out off water.

    I think the new party slogan might be..

    “Isn’t it ironic that voting Green would be seen as wasteful?”

  8. Mind you the Scottish Green Party under Patrick Harvey do extremely well on debates and interviews.

  9. @AC

    It may be that Ukip are being denied the oxygen of publicity and this is benefiting the Tories. If so, Ukip should rally a bit once the starting gun has been fired.

  10. @ CB11 and @Johnpolitico

    Is there any obvious evidence yet where this lost UKIP support is going or is too early and muddled to say?

    Worth looking at @CMJ’s churn comment at 6.18am this morning.

  11. @OldNat

    Re Danus Skene

    He may or may not be one of 15 children but as he appears to be a Fifer his family size won’t do him much good in Orkney & Shetland.

    He seems to be making a political career of standing in the wrong seat though. I suspect he’ll place better than the 4th place he managed in Moray as a Liberal in 1987, losing to Margaret Ewing.

    Still you can’t call him a glory hunter, moving from Liberal to SNP then choosing to contest O&S is not the sign of a career politico.

  12. RAF
    @AC
    It may be that Ukip are being denied the oxygen of publicity and this is benefiting the Tories. If so, Ukip should rally a bit once the starting gun has been fired.
    _________

    I can’t see it. UKIP need to come up with just more than anti EU and immigration stuff. They have a narrative on both and they resonate well with a large chunk of the public but the message (PRESSMAN) and his army will put out..”Vote UKIP get EM” I’m confident will put the boot into the UKIP VI when we approach May.

  13. Northumbrianscot

    Thanks for that. I had a quick search online for details of Danus, but found little.

    Still, as a Fifer, he’ll be used to folk taking a lang spoon to sup; with him. :-)

  14. He also appears to be a Clan Chief:
    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clan_Skene

    Maybe there’s a few of his kinsmen in Shetland who owe him fealty?

  15. @ Allan,

    35% of Kippers apparently think Nigel Farage is going to be Prime Minister, so I’m not sure psephological realities are really filtering through.

    It’s also worth noting that Farage is widely thought to have beat Clegg in the EU debates, and Clegg is thought to have won the 2010 debates. Transitivity would suggest that Farage > Clegg > Cameron means Farage > Cameron.

    I’m not sure debates actually work that way, and given Clegg’s current standing he might struggle to beat Bennett, but I wouldn’t count on Farage imploding on television either. Ukippers aren’t looking for well-costed policies.

  16. @RAF

    “It may be that Ukip are being denied the oxygen of publicity and this is benefiting the Tories.”

    I’ll wager that seeing the candidates is putting one or two people off (if the UKIP candidate presentation in Scotland was anything to go by).

    It’s a funny old world. Straw almost disappears in the wake of Rifkind, and Con is up on Lab. It’s the anti-BBC effect. :))

    In truth it’s probably MoE.

  17. All the Labour voters were too busy answering the Survation poll to respond to the YouGov one. ;)

  18. Does anyone know if the 32 announced Scottish Green candidates is all we’re getting?

    Looks like there won’t be a Green in East Renfrewshire if so. We did have 1 council candidate in 2012 but I guess it’s not a natural green stronghold.

    Probably good news for the SNP in terms of uniting the Yes vote against Jim Murphy.

    At 36% the Yes vote was one of the lowest nationally but if SNP can retain 90% or so of that then they could be competitive in the seat.

    Depends if local Tories decide to support Jim to keep out the SNP or prefer to hope a falling Labour vote and low SNP ceiling could lead to a Conservative victory on a low 30s percentage.

    I still find it hard to see past a Labour hold but who knows.

  19. Some observations on the UKIP drop.

    The biggest drops are from those pollsters showing the largest UKIP house effects, except TNS

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9103/comment-page-1

    Opinium also changed their methodology at the beginning of Feb in a way they said would lower their UKIP score.

  20. SPEARMINT

    Farage is a good performer but the party lacks his type in depth and others in the party may be found wanting in any debates and Farage would tank any opponent over the EU, it’s his bread and butter

    Cleggmania never came to much after the polls closed and I think Faragebarrage will go the same way.
    ……

    “35% of Kippers apparently think Nigel Farage is going to be Prime Minister, so I’m not sure psephological realities are really filtering through”
    ______

    All I can is Fruitcakes.

  21. Hardly surprising that a full frontal assault on UKIP has slightly hit their VI. With the frequency of polling in the run-up to a vote I don’t doubt that they have dipped though.

    Speaking of poll frequency. AW, has there been much discussion within your profession about post-election polling should May produce a really wobbly Parliament, for instance a situation where even Lab + SNP or Lab + LD don’t hold a majority of seats? Usually the month after a GE is the pollsters’ equivalent of a school summer holiday, and rightly so because a) the run-up to the election is pretty intensive and b) the post-election data would usually be worthless anyway. But would that be the case if an autumn/winter election seemed more likely than not?

  22. Skene?
    I believe he was is the Scottish Labour Party (Sillars group) when briefly he worked beside me in Speyside. So he is maybe going for the set.

  23. NORTHUMBRIANSCOT

    It’s going to be a fascinating ole night in our seat. I reckon their will be a lot of tactical voting and my feeling is the SNP will poll well very well and the Tory vote will get squeezed. I too think Murphy will hold the seat but the SNP surge after the indy vote will be enough for some voters to think it will be a two horse race between the SNP and Labour.

  24. LAN CHRISTIE
    “Early days but I reckon we will start seeing a sharp decline in the UKIP VI and a subsequent rise in the Tory VI.”
    That’s you want to happen. Lab still just ahead, despite ukio dip, which I put down to them being out of the media, for now.

  25. @Spearmint

    Have you come across non-transitive dice? http://mathsgear.co.uk/products/non-transitive-grime-dice

    Lots of fun!

  26. Barney

    If he’s going for the set, then he’ll probably have an opportunity to spread his wings further after May.:-)

  27. Even more Skene
    He seems to have been a candidate for Labour, Scottish Labour Party (Sillars group), Lib Dem and SNP.

  28. At yougov must be the only really poll we can use to track trends, others are too irregular and have potty weightings/house effects.

    On ukip I can’t see them below 10%, based on theirs, BNP, and eng dems 2010 scores and a bit extra. Greens too have a core now of at least 5% from 2010 and the Lib Dems. I don’t see big 2 above 35% each, unless one implodes.

  29. JOHN J

    That’s what I want to happen?? How did you manage to come to that conclusion?

    <(((((< …………………< Big Kipper followed by small kipper.

    Big Kipper VI followed by small Kipper vote in May. It will happen.

  30. <*(((((< That's more like it. I forgot the eye.

  31. Barney
    A slight correction. Your lot are the Labour Party. Sillars set up the (now redundant) Scottish Labour Party.

    Any party can shove “Scottish” in front of their actual name on Scottish ballot papers, so the equivalent of your current usage of “Scottish Labour Party” would have to be the real Scottish Labour Party standing candidates as “Scottish Scottish Labour Party”. :-)

  32. @The Sheep

    My thanks for that link too, mathematical recreations are one my things, and I’ve not seen these.

    I see the connection with Spearmint’s post, but wouldn’t Cameron have to beat Farage for this to be Non-transitive? I’m already wondering about a possible relationship to the Condorcet paradox .Too late to read the monograph though.

    Thanks again.

  33. I can’t see UKIP benefitting from the debates. I know it seems to be the narrative generally but I think Farage is in for a mauling when the topic moves beyond their comfort zones (EU/immigration).

    They don’t really have any consistent policies outside these two subjects, as evidenced by Farage’s frankly pathetic flip-flopping over the NHS recently.

    The EU and immigration is only going to take up 1/5 at most of the debates. The rest will be on the economy, education, health, defence and the usual (important) stuff.

    I can’t see Farage coming up with anything consistent, that won’t end up alienating either the ex-Tory or ex-Labour potential voters.

    The press will rip him to pieces.

  34. Re Skene

    He certainly seems to pick the underdog each time!

  35. Jason
    “The EU and immigration is only going to take up 1/5 at most of the debates. The rest will be on the economy, education, health, defence and the usual (important) stuff.”

    Those other subjects are all affected by the first two.

  36. They may be affected by the first two, but if all Farage does is bang on about the EU and immigrants for an hour when the other parties are presenting positive plans for improvements, he’s going to come out of it looking like a broken record.

    This has been their problem on Question Time for years. Leaving the EU is *not* a magic bullet, no matter how you cut it.

  37. YouGov London poll for Times
    CON 34 (+2)
    LAB 42 (=)
    LIB 8 (+1)
    UKIP 9 (-1)
    GRN 7 (-1)

  38. @AW

    I have to say that I am sceptical that there has been a reliable drop in Ukip VI since January 1st. (Bear in mind that I have been banging on about Ukip performing below trends for the whole of this period, it is not that I am questioning that their showing has faded: It is just that I am not confident that there has been an actual drop).

    In support of my scepticism, linear regression on the Ukip VIs for the 73 polls this year (using days from Jan 1 as the independent variable) shows that the decline is not statistically reliable (p > 0.15). The outcome is the same if you restrict the regression analysis to just the YouGov polls (though here the p-value creeps up to 0.099). Equally comparing the full set of January VIs against the Feb scores in a t-test shows no significant difference (again p > 0.15).

    By compressing all of your expensively collected YouGov data into a single point on your histogram, you have done away with much of the evidence sampled over this 7-8 week period. It seems to me that if you want to subdivide the data into the different polling houses then you need to make adjustments to take account of the fact that some of the MoEs are much lower than others.

    I grant you that we are getting close to seeing a Ukip decline. But I don’t think we are quite there yet.

  39. OLDNAT

    “Cameron said the Government could be ready to give the BBC more funding to counter Russian-backed propaganda. “I think we need to do more frankly in the area of information. One of the complaints we get from the Baltic states is there is nothing to counter the deluge of Russian-paid and backed media spreading disinformation”
    _______

    God help the Baltics.

  40. Roger, Anthony

    Have a look at the Survation tables – page 6

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Feb-Mirror-tables.pdf

    And look at the regions weightings, and compare to the regions weightings for last month

    Why has the Midlands grown so large?
    160 last month, 340 this month

    Also look at the AB weightings this month vs last month
    134 last month, 244 this month. DE weightings moved from 384 last month to 306 this month.

    Also look at the 2010 did not vote
    177 last month, 130 this month

    Is it normal for the weighted values to change this much from month to month, or could this class as a change in weightings values?

    I would think that large reduction in the DE weightings could be part of the reason for the apparent UKIP drop.

    Just trying to separate movement from polling weighting changes vs movements in actual voting intention.

    Am wondering how much of the UKIP drop is due to ‘house effects’ corrections via methodology changes versus how much is real movement.

  41. Yougov Fieldwork 23-24 Feb for the Sun
    Con 35 (+2)
    Lab 33 (-)
    UKIP 14 (+1)
    Green 7 (-)
    Lib 6(-2)
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/570350106244837378

  42. Richard

    I think the headings are all mixed up. For example the ones for the North and for Wales seem transposed (or there’s been some serious population change when I wasn’t looking).

    I try to work out if it’s anything more serious though.

  43. Roger

    Survation tweeted that they have corrected the errors that people spotted. Whether they have caught them all?

  44. Survation aren’t exactly covering themselves in glory with persistent errors in their tables.

  45. Survation now seem to have put up revised tables:

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Feb-Mirror-tables.pdf

    after ‘queries’ (presumably mockery on twitter)

  46. @Roger

    I think it was the revised ones I was looking at.

    OK, clearly their revised region labels must still be wrong, but what about the big movement in AB vs DE compared to last month – is that normal?

  47. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Early days but I reckon we will start seeing a sharp decline in the UKIP VI and a subsequent rise in the Tory VI.

    When Farage starts getting more time on the box then he like the Sheila for the Greens will get into a mess over policy or lack of them and will flap and flop into a horrible mess like a jellyfish out off water.
    ————————————-

    I think the exact opposite to your theory is more likely.

    Farage appears at ease and accomplished on TV, as his demolition of Nick Clegg demonstrated, the more airtime he gets the more votes he will stack up. That has been the case so far anyway, although I won’t be upset if you are correct.

  48. Social grade should be fairly constant in percentage terms, but not here:

    SEG / Surv Jan / Surv Feb / YouGov

    AB / 14% / 23% / 28%

    C1 / 20% / 17% / 29%

    C2 / 26% / 26% /22%

    DE / 40% / 34% / 22%

    YouGov percentages taken from the targets in their latest poll. It’s possible that YouGov may be using different definitions (for example on how you classify the retired) but it still doesn’t explain the differences between the two Survations.

  49. @Roger

    Thanks

    In their Jan poll the AB’s voted 7.6% UKIP, and the DE’s 29% UKIP.

    If you re-weight Jan by class to the same weights used in Feb, UKIP headline changes from 23% to 20%

    That accounts for most of the 4% drop in UKIP from Jan to Feb.

    I looked at Comres weights and they are
    AB 27
    C1 28
    C2 22
    De 24

    So those look closer to the Yougov ones.

    I think this social class weighting could be part of the reason for Survation showing such a high UKIP house effect.

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