Two new polls today – the daily YouGov poll for the Sun and the monthly Survation poll for the Daily Mirror.

Survation in the Mirror have topline figures of CON 28%(-3), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 10%(+3), UKIP 19%(-4), GRN 4%(+1). Lots of sharp changes there since their previous poll, but usual caveats apply – the Tory lead in Survation’s previous poll was rather unusual in itself, today’s large Labour lead also unusual, hence the large changes from one to the other. Note also the drop in UKIP support – Survation consistently show the highest UKIP support, so while 19 is large compared to other pollsters’ figures, its a notable drop from Survation.

Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%. A two point Conservative lead from YouGov, the first time they’ve shown that for just over a month.

The bigger picture remains the same. The Conservatives probably haven’t moved ahead, or we’d be seeing that across most of the polls, when actually they are averaging out at a tiny Labour lead. Neither is there is big swing to Labour, or we’d be seeing that across most of the polls, when actually they all just seem to be showing normal variation around the margin of error. In terms of the Labour vs Conservative race, 2015 so far has been largely static. The only trend that may be meaningful is the drop in UKIP support.

ukipdrop

Now that Survation have published their monthly poll we can compare UKIP’s January and February scores across all the pollsters (I’ve taken an average for those companies who publish more than once a month). There does seem to be a pretty consistent fall in UKIP support, perhaps slightly obscured by the fact that the most frequent pollster, YouGov, shows one of the more modest drops and the second most frequent pollster, Populus, changed their methodology at the start of February in a way that increased UKIP support.


359 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Survation polls”

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  1. John

    Jihadi John is nowt to do with “Muslims”. Let’s treat him like the criminal he is, bring him to justice by putting him in front of a jury. That’s the British way.

  2. Apologies, just noticed an error. ED obtaianed 1.9% in 2009 not 2.6% as stated by myself in previous post.

  3. Jasper
    Just on a technical point, what would we try Jihadi John for? His murders were carried out on foreign soil, so would we have jurisdiction?
    I suppose he could be tried for treason.

  4. Thanks Anthony

  5. Pete B

    Good point. Due to no country really existing where JJ operates, maybe The International Criminal Court.

  6. AW
    Thanks

  7. @Andy Shadrack

    You asked:

    “On what basis would those currently considering voting for “other” go to Labour or Conservative?”

    I gave you half a dozen reasons, you didn’t ask for the statistical probability. If you don’t like people answering your questions perhaps you ought not to ask them.

    I stand by my statement that only a small proportion of UKIP supporters are former BNP voters. I refer you to Anthony’s excellent churn analysis that shows the BNP to UKIP churn to be 0 in 2012, 0.3% in 2013 and 0.4% in 2014. That indicates to me that former BNP supporters make up a tiny fraction (about one fortieth) of current UKIP support.

    I am prepared to accept that someone with a decade long history of voting for the BNP or English Democrats is unlikely to become a Labour or Conservative voter in the next ten weeks. But my point is that this is very few people.

    Most current UKIP supporters (and SNP supporters) have previously voted Labour, Lib Dem or Conservative (over two thirds according to AW’s churn analysis) and, since a little under half of them are not firmly committed to UKIP (Ashcroft’s poll) I contend that it is not unreasonable to theorise that some may do so again in May.

    You identification of a “strong statistical probability” that those who voted BNP/Ed in 2009 are now UKIP voters does not persuade me. And I doubt that a statistician would agree with your analysis. There are plenty roaming the cloisters of this site I am ready to be corrected.

    Finally, I am sorry if I gave you the impression that I wanted anything to happen, that was not my intention.

  8. JASPER22
    Who gets what from these returnees is the 64 dollar question

    Wow. You must be older than oldnat if you can remember NBC’s radio show from the early ’50s. I thought I was ancient in remembering CBS TV’s $64,000 Question from ’55 to ’58.

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