Monday tends to be the busiest day of the week for polling (not least because phone polls are mostly conducted across the weekend). We have four polls due today: Populus, Ashcroft, YouGov and ComRes. ComRes’s poll tonight will be in the Daily Mail, who seem to have taken over ComRes’s phone polls from the Independent, their host since 2006.

The twice-weekly poll from Populus has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6% (tabs here). This is their first poll of 2015 not to show a Labour lead.

The weekly poll from Lord Ashcroft meanwhile has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 8% (tabs here). This is his largest Labour lead of 2015 so far, and UKIP are sharply down – 11 points is the lowest UKIP have recorded in an Ashcroft poll. The online/phone poll contrast in terms of UKIP support seems to be alive and well, with the last three phone polls from MORI, ICM and Ashcroft giving UKIP scores of 9, 9 and 11 respectively, but online polls continuing to show them in the teens.

UPDATE: Here are tonight’s other two polls. ComRes in the Daily Mail have figures of CON 34%(+3), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 13%(-4), GRN 8%(+1). The two point Conservative lead is the largest ComRes have shown since 2010, and their UKIP score is the lowest since last Spring. Meanwhile YouGov in the Sun have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%.

Putting today’s four polls together we have one Labour lead, one Tory lead, and two polls showing the parties neck-and-neck – all perfectly in line with normal sample variation around the parties being pretty much neck-and-neck, probably with Labour just ahead. Note the UKIP picture though – all the regular phone polls have them at their lowest score for some time, and 13 points is equal to YouGov’s lowest score for them this year. The trend is difficult to discern given the wide variations between different pollsters, but looking at the average of the February polls so far UKIP do seem to be down slightly.


364 Responses to “Monday’s polls – UPDATED”

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  1. @ON

    If you really do stretch back far enough to remember the worlds reaction to Suez we’ll have to start calling you Very Old Nat.

    @Club of Feb ’74

    Hurray for us! But I don’t see 2015 being terribly similar. That was a snap election in the middle of a crisis. This one was planned 5 years ago and we’re all exhausted already by a campaign that was already stale at last year’s budget.

    Some similarities I’ll allow. Labour didn’t believe they would win 74 either:)

  2. @ RMJ1,

    The opposite is true in the house of commons where he often performs poorly, partly because he is over confident and thus under prepared.

    The mystery to me is why it keeps happening. I can see it happening once- Gove was an easy mark, everyone thought Osborne would be a soft target, fine.

    Why does it happen 90% of the time!? How many times can someone wipe the floor with you before you stop being over-confident? Okay, it can’t help that he has a stutter so he has to memorise his speeches and the Tories make animal noises to try to throw him off, but the bigger problem is often his starting material, as we saw on Monday. Why is he always so badly briefed?

    @ Bill Patrick,

    Lol.

  3. JASPER22
    It’s not good enough to defend Bennett’s performance by saying she had the sniffles.

    For whom?

  4. Can someone help me out here? I downloaded the pdf file from the Mirror page and it indicates that the fieldwork was done in January 2015 not February 2015. Is this an error on the page or is the pdf the January ooll and not the recent February poll? Please advise.

  5. @Brian

    Try this link

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Feb-Mirror-tables.pdf

    It says fieldwork done yesterday.

  6. Ann in Wales et al

    It is not a matter of how the questions were asked etc. There is one simple issue here as evidenced by previous interviews ; Bennet is not up to the job, not intellectually, not personallity wise and always unprepared.

    The Greens will have to get rid of here very soon or there recent polling increase will collapse.

    No wonder Cameron wanted her in the debates.! Imagine it !!

  7. After the discussion earlier, and in honour of Pressman

    Q29. When it comes to deciding which party to vote for in May’s general election, which of the following celebrities’ opinions would you trust most?

    Joey Essex 2%
    Ant and Dec 20%
    Noel Gallagher 12%
    Mylene Klass 16%
    Don’t Know 50%

  8. @ Penn,

    Trust me, Cameron didn’t insist on including her in the debates because he hoped it would hurt the Greens.

    After her latest interview he’s probably doubly resolved not to have them.

  9. When are we getting these Survation LibDem tables? Do they think we are going to forget…

  10. Penn

    More tragic than funny.

    These incidental parties- Green PC SNP UKIP – will be found out once the GE proper kicks off. ‘Twas ever thus.

  11. @ Richard,

    “None of them” needs to be an option there.

    Or “Mary Beard”.

  12. PENN
    The Greens will have to get rid of here very soon or there recent polling increase will collapse.
    No wonder Cameron wanted her in the debates.! Imagine it !!

    You’re contradicting yourself there. It’s highly unlikely that the Greens will have much impact on Con VI. Surely Cameron wanted her in the debates to act as Lab’s UKIP. If she performs badly at the debates, that will be the last thing Cameron wants.

  13. Postage Included

    “If you really do stretch back far enough to remember the worlds reaction to Suez we’ll have to start calling you Very Old Nat.”

    Not only do I remember it well, but it was my introduction to politics.

    My Dad insisted that we all watch the news broadcasts on our newly acquired TV.

    He then explained that he had been fighting against exactly that kind of behaviour during the war.

    He loathed imperialism – as his War Diary from North Africa regularly showed.

  14. @RAF, Spearmint, Richard, etc

    Your analyses are all based on the same misconception, namely that if the Grens were better led they would have more chance of a breakthrough.

    The logical error here is in forgetting that if you improve zero by 10%, 100%, 1,000,000%, whatever, you still get zero. There will not be, and never was expected to be, a breakthrough this year.

    Those with a historical memory will remember it took Labour 30 years to get a smell of government, and 50 to get an overall majority. The Greens have only recently changed from a pressure group to a proper political party. These things take time.

    The aim this time is to increase pressure on a small number of genuine target seats (of which not many, if any will actually be won). The need is to BUILD a presence; it won’t appear overnight (as the hubristic Kippers will soon find out).

    Under these circumstances, it’s local feet on the ground that matter, not the national leadership.

  15. I wonder if tonight’s Yougov will confirm the pro-Lab movement?

  16. Bill Patrick – it was Nick Ferrari. I think he’s normally a bit more bombastic with politicians. In fact he’s interviewed me in the past – and it was good fun, with good questions. He’s a good interviewer.

  17. I have a feeling that if people are going to abandon the greens they will probably go back to the Libs from whence many of them came. If they were going to vote Labour then their dalliance with the greens wouldn’t have happened. Imo of course, I have no evidence, just a hunch.

  18. @MOG

    Don’t get me wrong. Winning more than a handful of seats this time around was always going to be tough. But 10%+ was possible.

  19. Ok I’m going for a Conservative lead of 2 for tonight YouGov

  20. OLDNAT
    Not only do I remember it well, but it was my introduction to politics.
    My Dad insisted that we all watch the news broadcasts on our newly acquired TV.
    He then explained that he had been fighting against exactly that kind of behaviour during the war.

    Snap! I was 7 at the time. I still have the petrol ration coupons issued to him at the time.

  21. Spearmint,
    I agree with your post concerning the Bennett interview .Spot on.I just despair
    of Ed Balls,However the barrackng in the HOC has to stop.It is making parliament a joke.

  22. Those insisting that the Greens need a new leader are unfair on Ms Bennet. I’m not going to vote Green (although I would like some of their proposals to get proper debate), but on previous occasions, I’ve been impressed with what I’ve heard of her – for example, on any questions. Let’s not forget that it’s under her leadership, that we’ve seen the remarkable mini-surge in Green support.

    She had a bad day, that’s clear. What’s also clear, is that the major problem with her party is that policy details have not been properly worked through. If they get more supporters, perhaps they’ll find the resources to do some more serious thinking. The last thing the party needs, is to revert to the Caroline Lucas single person sideshow.

  23. @RAF

    The Liberals got 7.5% in 1970 (having scraped along the floor since the early 1930s), and 19.3% in February 1974.

    Build and you can grow. 2020 is the key election for the Greens

  24. Of course, it is very possible that after the election there will be massive political upheaval. All the jigsaw pieces will be thrown up into the air.

    May 8th will be just a beginning.

  25. @Amber

    It’s all we have in that poll and it was that poll that was released. In other words, the polling companies (all of them) should be putting a minimum level of samples on each sub-sampled area, or it’s just a case of people ignoring them. Waste of time and money.

  26. Barbazenzero

    “I still have the petrol ration coupons issued to him at the time”.

    My brother had those – but I still have bits of the original TV cabinet in the shed! (I converted it into a bookcase many years ago).

  27. Thanks for mentioning Suez…I read up on it (before my time). Interesting quote:

    “Suez destroyed the United Nations as well. By handing it over to Dag Hammarskjöld and his feckless ilk, Eisenhower turned the organization from the stout voice of international law and order into at best a meaningless charade; at worst, a Machiavellian cesspool. Instead of teaching Nasser and his fellow dictators that breaking international law does not pay, Suez taught them that every transgression will be forgotten and forgiven, especially if oil is at stake…. Suez destroyed the moral authority of the so-called world community. Fifty years later, we are all still living in the rubble.”

  28. OLDNAT
    “Not only do I remember it well, but it was my introduction to politics.”

    I was in my late teens, not able to vote as I was under 21 but I went to listen to a debate on the day the news broke which included a prospective Liberal candidate that I had previously met. He had not heard from Liberal HQ what the party’s view was so had to make up his own mind and chose to back the Governments decision to invade. It was a mistake as the Libs came out strongly against.

  29. @ Statgeek

    But it’s all you need, in that poll, to confirm that Labour’s rise, in that poll, hasn’t come at the expense of the SNP, in that poll. Which is all anybody gets from a cross-break, in any single poll. ;-)

  30. Statgeek

    I’d like to have seen my Dad have a chat with the author of that piece!

  31. @Very Old Nat

    My earliest memory of international events was the Cuban Missile Crisis, which wasn’t clearly explained to me at the time but which I understood only from playground tales, and which infected my nightmares for many years after.

    I think I’d have preferred Suez; my dad was pretty contemptuous of imperialism too.

  32. I would very much like to see some approval ratings for Nicola Sturgeon, Natalie Bennett and Leanne Wood, who probably have as much hold on political reality as Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg.

    Never met Bennett or seen her speak, but remember how nervous the Green Party Leader was when she was in TV debates in 2001 in British Columbia. She didn’t fluff her lines and some pundits said she won the debate against the three other boys, and the Party actually got a slight bounce coming out of the debates.

    I still, however, remain fixated about why the UKIP vote is going to go back to either Tory or Labour when in 2010 more people voted BNP than UKIP in some Midland, Northern and Eastern seats.

    Some of these people, and I am not apologizing for them, do not see themselves as racist but rather in competition with immigrants of colour or white, for jobs, housing and resources needed to live.

    They feel abandoned by both the Tory elite in Westminster and the Labour elite that run their local councils. Alf Garnet (Til Death do us part) or Archie Bunker (All in the Family), Reagan Democrats, or as we call them in Canada red-necks – because they work out in the sun doing physical labour.

    I find Andrew Marr and Dimbleby officious and self-serving and from the same elite that puts down the red-necks, and once watched a play in Regina by Ken Kramer that portrayed “liberals” as more racist than “conservatives” ,

    There is an assumption on this list that UKIP voters will go back to either Labour or Conservative. Why if they previously voted for the BNP in 2009?

    The hard truth is that somewhere between 64% and 66% of voters are thinking about voting Labour or Conservative, while 33% to 35% are thinking about voting for another Party because they detest Labour and Conservative. that means either labour or Conservative only have two points to grow and that makes some peoiple on this list very nervous.

    Why on earth would a UKIP voter switch to Green having previously voted BNP? Simple, Andrew Marr and others have made fun of the Green’s wacky policies just like they make fun of the red-necks anti-immigarnt ideas that are based on real issues over access to living wages, housing and transportation.

    Just the other night, for example, I read an article about how Barnet Council (Conservative) were trying to evict tenants and send them to Birmingham.

    Along comes Bennett (not in Barnet), with all her lack of professional credentials, and she speaks about decent wages, affordable housing and access to affordable transportation.

    Who would you vote for the Conservative Party that tried to evict you, the Labour party that failed to show up when you were being evicted, or the candidate of the party that did show up?

    For most voters, Party loyalty is a things of the past, and therefore it becomes about who is speaking to the issues on the top of my mind, and should I bother to vote all all.

  33. Postage Included

    As to the Cuban crisis, I remember going to bed, listening to Kennedy, then wondering if I would actually be alive in the morning.

    Many years later, I took my own teenage son to the secret Scottish Cold War HQ in Fife. Trying to explain the fears of that time, I said that the greatest fear was that we would die for experiencing sex.

    With the pitying look, that sons reserve for their fathers, he said, “Dad, every generation fears that!”

  34. @ RMJ1,

    Some of them were probably dallying with Labour in 2012, and a Lib Dem vote is a potential vote for a Tory-led coalition, which I think makes it unlikely that the ones who left the Lib Dems before 2014 will return home.

    I’m not sure where the 2014 Lib Dem defectors will end up at the election. It seems strange to me that anyone would sit through 2010-2013 and then desert Clegg now, but that clearly has happened (or did happen, if we think the Lib Dems are recovering a bit). Maybe even for Lib Dems there’s an electability threshold that a party has to cross to secure their vote and Ukip and the Greens hadn’t crossed it before the European elections?

  35. @NickP

    “I wonder if tonight’s Yougov will confirm the pro-Lab movement?”

    Why wait for YouGov?? I’m a one man pro-Labour movement all by myself!

    :-)

  36. @ Anthony

    Re: Scottish Voting Intentions in Westminster since 2014

    Just FYI, The poll dates seem to have been wrongly formatted.

  37. “My earliest memory of international events was the Cuban Missile Crisis”

    Mine, too. My mother was so concerned that WWIII was just around the corner, that she borrowed an aunt’s car and drove to my school to pick me up – saving me what would otherwise have been a 20 min walk to the station, followed by both a train ride and bus journey to get home. So the Cuban missile crisis worked to my advantage – but it was many years before I had any idea what it was all about.

    From about the same time, a specifically South African story that meant no more to me than newspaper headlines, was the “Rivonia trial” – known to most of the world, and to me later on, as the Nelson Mandela treason trial.

    Political consciousness takes time to break through – but eventually, it does.

  38. for -> before

  39. @Andy, they are there in the Survation tables

    Q14. Thinking about the past month, do you approve or disapprove of how Leanne Wood has been doing her job as leader of Plaid Cymru?

    Approve 9%
    Neither approve or disapprove 30%
    Disapprove 6%
    Who is that? 54%

    Q14. Thinking about the past month, do you approve or disapprove of how Natalie Bennett has been doing her job as leader of the Green Party?

    Approve 19%
    Neither approve or disapprove 30%
    Disapprove 13%
    Who is that? 38%

    Q14. Thinking about the past month, do you approve or disapprove of how Nicola Sturgeon has been doing her job as leader of the SNP?

    Approve 20%
    Neither approve or disapprove 28%
    Disapprove 23%
    Who is that? 29%

  40. @V. O. N.

    Lovely story.

    My son, aged about 6 or 7, once asked me, I think in all seriousness “Dad, do you talk about history so much because you’re part of it”. Not something you can plausibly deny, really.

  41. Richard

    I doubt that Nicola will be much worried about how voters in England & Wales think she is doing as leader of the SNP!

  42. Postage

    Good on the boy! :-)

  43. @Statgeek/Spearmint

    Apologies, by the way, for confusing your two names in an earlier post on this thread. It’s not the first time I’ve responded inappropriately!

    :-)

  44. Anthony Wells,

    Thanks!

  45. Countdown to YouGov.

    Tense.

  46. I’m hearing that the delay in the YouGov poll is because the Lib Dems have asked for a recount.

    Lost deposit?

  47. CON 35%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%

  48. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Tories have a two-point lead: CON 35%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%

  49. Woohoo spot on with my 2pt Con lead

  50. Tories with 2% lead.

    The Rifkind effect, perhaps?

    :-)

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