Monday tends to be the busiest day of the week for polling (not least because phone polls are mostly conducted across the weekend). We have four polls due today: Populus, Ashcroft, YouGov and ComRes. ComRes’s poll tonight will be in the Daily Mail, who seem to have taken over ComRes’s phone polls from the Independent, their host since 2006.

The twice-weekly poll from Populus has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6% (tabs here). This is their first poll of 2015 not to show a Labour lead.

The weekly poll from Lord Ashcroft meanwhile has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 8% (tabs here). This is his largest Labour lead of 2015 so far, and UKIP are sharply down – 11 points is the lowest UKIP have recorded in an Ashcroft poll. The online/phone poll contrast in terms of UKIP support seems to be alive and well, with the last three phone polls from MORI, ICM and Ashcroft giving UKIP scores of 9, 9 and 11 respectively, but online polls continuing to show them in the teens.

UPDATE: Here are tonight’s other two polls. ComRes in the Daily Mail have figures of CON 34%(+3), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 13%(-4), GRN 8%(+1). The two point Conservative lead is the largest ComRes have shown since 2010, and their UKIP score is the lowest since last Spring. Meanwhile YouGov in the Sun have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%.

Putting today’s four polls together we have one Labour lead, one Tory lead, and two polls showing the parties neck-and-neck – all perfectly in line with normal sample variation around the parties being pretty much neck-and-neck, probably with Labour just ahead. Note the UKIP picture though – all the regular phone polls have them at their lowest score for some time, and 13 points is equal to YouGov’s lowest score for them this year. The trend is difficult to discern given the wide variations between different pollsters, but looking at the average of the February polls so far UKIP do seem to be down slightly.

364 Responses to “Monday’s polls – UPDATED”

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  1. I think Ms Bennetts implosion shows how hard it can be for those the media
    are against.I did not hear the interview but presumably it was the universal
    antagonistic questioning plus endless interruptions so it is difficult to formulate
    a coherent response.

  2. Survation cross break






  3. Survation Scottish x-break:

    NB – Sample 63 unweighted 77 weighted!

  4. A strange, bizarre poll from Survation. It is not fit for purpose and should be ignored.

  5. Ann In Wales

    Sadly, it had nothing to do with the interviewer.
    It was all down to her, she was awful, a disgrace.
    Her party has no credibility following this – they must get rid of her.

  6. England

    Con 30 : Lab 34 : LD 9 : UKIP 22 : Grn 4

    Eng 0 Catalunya 2

  7. …or link to the pdf: (cheers for the original link Oldnat)

    Scottish CB:

    SNP 49.7%
    LAB 24.9%
    CON 14.1%
    LIB 4.2%

    Scotland Votes Seats:

    SNP 55
    LAB 3
    LIB 1

    Again a small sample, but it’s all we have.

  8. @ Ann in Wales. As someone who intends to vote Green I would like to say Nick Ferrari harangued Bennett. In truth he just gave her enough rope and let her do the rest. She is not up to the job. With Lucas as leader they would have so much more of a chance.

  9. Jasper,
    A little harsh surely.

  10. @OldNat

    England 0 Spain 2.

    Whatever Barcelona would like to be they are one of Spain’s representatives in the competition. They also share together with Real Madrid 50% of the Spanish First Division’s Club TV revenue.

  11. Mikey,
    Caroline Lucas is a class act.But one person doth not a party make.

  12. A view from a Green member…

    Nobody, not even the most optimistic Green, expects the party have a chance to seriously influence policy in May. The best conceivable outcome is a rainbow coalition or S&C, where one or two flagship Green policies may get through (provided they don’t clash with Labour principles).

    Under these circumstances, the fact that the leader is clearly not PM material, and the policies not fully thought through, is not a matter of great importance. Green support is based on philosophy and political orientation, not leaders and specific policies.

  13. Ann

    I honestly cringed listening to it. Unprepared, stuttering and long silences. Blimey, someone from Holyrood or the “Senedd” could have done better…

  14. RAF
    England 0 Spain 2.

    Should that not be England 0 Catalonia 2?

    Cmon the break aways!!

  15. @Ann In Wales

    I don’t know if that’s true. Where would Ukip be without Farage?

  16. @AC

    I give OldNat bonus points for using the Catalan “catalunya”.

    Unfortunately you get none ;)

  17. Funny how these “break aways” never quite – how can I put this – break way..

  18. RAF

    In fact, Visca Catalunya. :-)

  19. Indeed RAF. Besides I didn’t say that one person makes up the entire party. I merely pointed out they would have a much better chance with Lucas leader. Lucas is a bright, articulate woman. Bennett sadly is not.

  20. I think Natalie is a genuinely nice human being.

    To be a Leader of a party and succeed against the all the manure that is thrown is very hard. 99.9% of us would do far worse than Natalie.

    I really hope she does what is best for her, and if that is get ot of the limelight then I hope she does. I worry that recent events might damage her personally.

    For what it’s worth all the Greens I know like their polcies, and just because the parties Leader get trashed, won’t change their vote one iota.

    I would add that culturally, the Greens are far less reliant on it’s Leader. For many years it didn’t even have a unified single leader. There is no cult of personality around one person.

  21. @Mikey

    Caroline is a very special politician.

    If in another life she had led one of the big parties, I think she would have gone very far indeed.

  22. F G

    Accurate, sadly. The standard of a middling County Council. Abolish devolution and reduce the deficit by 40 percent.

  23. Agreed Catmanjeff. I don’t Bennett’s performance will affect their vote especially amongst younger voters.

  24. Jasper,
    I really could not say.
    Yes,of course.


    Jasper is certainly being harsh but in political terms he is possibly being realistic. If you are Ed B you can possibly get away with not giving credible answers because you display so much confidence that it unnerves the interviewer. Ms Bennett showed no such confidence and panic does not look good in a party leader. A pity from my point of view because I was hoping the greens would take a lot of lefty votes but perhaps I was being unrealistic. Would that UKIP imploded in the same fashion. (But I don’t hold my breath)

  26. @Jasper22

    Just because Natalie has had a bad time, I doubt very much those who support her party will trot back the usual suspects.

    A lack of confidence in Natalie is not linked to an increasing confidence in other leaders or parties.

    Green support is based on philosophy and political orientation, not leaders and specific policies.

    Spot on. Sky News and the BBC website are trying to make a big deal of it and going in as hard as they did over Ed M’s conference speech with Rifkind well down the list and Straw apparently forgotten.

    That will be seen by many as an establishment attempt to close ranks over the C4/Telegraph sting and certainly turn few away.

  28. Again a small sample, but it’s all we have.

    It’s not actually all we have; Survation did a Scottish poll not so very long ago.

  29. @MOG

    Our posts sort of crossed over.

  30. Natalie wasn’t well and had what sounded like a bad cold. It was a good policy but Natalie got thrown when the interviewer questioned her figures.

    They want to build 500k house which are certainly needed but when asked what it would cost she said 2.7 billion at that point the interviewer was quite incredulous and Natalie lost it and stuttered and couldn’t really answer from then on.

    But I think she wasn’t counting the income from rent – so they could build in stages by re-investing rent money. Then she said each would cost 60k which is probably fine but she wasn’t able to explain where the land would come from (already government or council land?)
    Anyway its probably a good policy hopefully someone in the Greens can explain it.

  31. RMJ1,
    Would that EdB did unnerve the interviewer.Quote the opposite I would say.

  32. AIW

    I’d much rather see Carwyn in the Cabinet as Welsh Secretary, no Assembly and the “Senedd ” converted into affordable housing.

  33. Having listened to the interview, it was certainly not an aggressive interview. It was slow, methodical, relatively polite, and appropriately old-fashioned i.e. “I want you to explain your policies and this is a chance for you to explain your policies, so please explain your policies”.

  34. Actually, I liked that interviewer so much I’d like to hear him interview a politician again. I hate the nasty Paxman style when the interviewer becomes like a schoolboy showing off. The interviewer on LBC (whoever he was) was like a stringent but understanding Oxbridge supervisor.

    “Green support is based on philosophy and political orientation, not leaders and specific policies.”

    True to a point. But if the Greens want to grow into a significant political force they need to make a parliamentary breakthrough. And that would be easier to achieve with a special leader.

  36. Bill Patrick

    I couldn’t listen to the interview. It was too much like a Norman Wisdom film.

  37. @ Ann in Wales,

    I did not hear the interview but presumably it was the universal antagonistic questioning plus endless interruptions so it is difficult to formulate a coherent response

    It really, really wasn’t. She didn’t need any help to crash and burn, she managed it all on her own.

    To be fair to her, it’s partly a Green problem rather than a Bennett-specific problem, because the party clearly hasn’t costed anything and so any question about how to pay for their policies is going to end in catastrophe for the interviewee. Lucas might have managed to parachute out of the plane a little more gracefully, but it still would have ended with a pile of flaming wreckage on the ground.

    On the other hand, Bennett is the party leader and also the very same person who had another disastrous interview with this exact problem just a few weeks ago, so the ultimate responsibility for this Green problem lies with her. Advocating for completely uncosted, extremely expensive policies makes you look like an idiot in interviews, and the Greens ought to understand this by now and stop doing it. It probably won’t hurt them much as long as their primary identity is that of a protest party, but it’s not helping them either and if they want to run councils and things it’s going to become a problem.

    (The sad irony of this is you don’t have to do real costings, you can just make up numbers. That’s what all the other parties do: “We’ll pay for this with a banker’s bonus tax/benefit cuts/oil revenues/eliminating our EU levy, which will bring in eleventy billion pounds!” But you have to come armed with some fantasy figures, you don’t just say “Er… dunno.”)

  38. ….and Sir Tom Jones and Dame Shirley Bassey at number 1 singing Islands in the Stream

  39. @ANN

    Oh I think Ed does unnerve interviewers because they are rarely well enough briefed to gainsay him. The opposite is true in the house of commons where he often performs poorly, partly because he is over confident and thus under prepared.

  40. There’s an interesting contrast between the Greens and UKIP. While UKIP lack a single coherent and harmonious constituency (there’s an inherent tension between pleasing libertarian supporters of the party and social conservatives) they have a big asset in Nigel Farage, regardless of what you might think of him. In contrast, the Greens have usually lacked an effective leader in England & Wales, but they have a very tidy slot in British politics now in a post-Coalition Britain.

  41. Oldnat,

    I was thinking more of a scene from Lucky Jim.

  42. Natalie interview

    It was like series 3 of Bergen, when she is unwell and has a car crash debate. Maybe Natalie will come back in the debates and skewer Ed M her rival, just like in Bergen. Life follows art.

  43. Spearmint,

    Good analysis.

  44. BORGEN – stop correcting me!!!!

  45. Ugh, I’m slipping into supervisor mode myself now.

  46. Couper


  47. Survation figures are surprising but not that far off the Ashcroft data – UKIP aside!

  48. I have a lot of sympathy for the Green party values, but I also expect policies that are realistic. I have been tempted to vote for them, but every time I look at the policies I just think they are completely unrealistic, and that turns me off.

    I suspect I am not alone, and if they want to break through they need to go through their policies, ditch the more radical ones, and make sure they have at least some basis in reality.

    It is still not too late, but I think this is actually a case of ‘bad policies, not realistic’ rather than 2 poor interviews. Challenge the policies internally like the last 2 policies have been challenged externally and make sure they are realistic, and can be funded. Yes, you may have a less appealing manifesto and may lose some sacred cows, but you may also get the credibility necessary to break through into the mainstream.

    Nothing wrong with admitting you got things wrong and were being too ambitious, reflecting where you wanted to be in 20years time rather than 5 years time and do a re-set. Better to do that rather than try and explain the unexplainable, as then you just lose credibility, and it is hard explain to others why you support something when everyone laughs at you and thinks you have been sucked in.

    And you need your supporters to be able to tell others to get the word out – look at those Survation tables, there is still a huge percent of the population who have no idea who Bennett is.

    My 2c for the Greens…

  49. @Couper

    I think of my tablet as miss whiplash. That way you start to enjoy it.

  50. It’s not good enough to defend Bennett’s performance by saying she had the sniffles. She needed to pull herself together. But she didn’t.

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