Monday tends to be the busiest day of the week for polling (not least because phone polls are mostly conducted across the weekend). We have four polls due today: Populus, Ashcroft, YouGov and ComRes. ComRes’s poll tonight will be in the Daily Mail, who seem to have taken over ComRes’s phone polls from the Independent, their host since 2006.

The twice-weekly poll from Populus has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6% (tabs here). This is their first poll of 2015 not to show a Labour lead.

The weekly poll from Lord Ashcroft meanwhile has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 8% (tabs here). This is his largest Labour lead of 2015 so far, and UKIP are sharply down – 11 points is the lowest UKIP have recorded in an Ashcroft poll. The online/phone poll contrast in terms of UKIP support seems to be alive and well, with the last three phone polls from MORI, ICM and Ashcroft giving UKIP scores of 9, 9 and 11 respectively, but online polls continuing to show them in the teens.

UPDATE: Here are tonight’s other two polls. ComRes in the Daily Mail have figures of CON 34%(+3), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 13%(-4), GRN 8%(+1). The two point Conservative lead is the largest ComRes have shown since 2010, and their UKIP score is the lowest since last Spring. Meanwhile YouGov in the Sun have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%.

Putting today’s four polls together we have one Labour lead, one Tory lead, and two polls showing the parties neck-and-neck – all perfectly in line with normal sample variation around the parties being pretty much neck-and-neck, probably with Labour just ahead. Note the UKIP picture though – all the regular phone polls have them at their lowest score for some time, and 13 points is equal to YouGov’s lowest score for them this year. The trend is difficult to discern given the wide variations between different pollsters, but looking at the average of the February polls so far UKIP do seem to be down slightly.


364 Responses to “Monday’s polls – UPDATED”

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  1. WB
    What a surprise that the BBC edited coverage to show Labour in a better light.

  2. Meant REF not red and earlier “Parliamentary” …

  3. Tom Mludzinski [email protected]_ComRes · 24s24 seconds ago
    New ComRes / @DailyMailUK poll, 2 point Con lead
    Con 34% (+3)
    Lab 32% (+2)
    LD 8% (NC)
    UKIP 13% (-4)
    Green 8% (+1)
    Others 6% (-1)

  4. Fizzer
    I am tempted to agree. have just received a circular e.mail from my MP, John Howell, which just sings everything they think they have done for us, without actually addressing the issue that neither party can break through 33%, includind their own, II am still tempted to put a bet on for 282 each, will be good odds!

  5. It,s still not the swing back DC needs and 66% of the population are still going to vote for another party!

  6. Welsh Borderer,
    Couldn’t agree more.Ed should have got rid of him years ago.He is quite toxic
    and useless to boot.

  7. I’ve had another look at Scotland, specifically the Lib-Dem-held seats. It looks like the others will show a similar picture the first two – only the Northern Isles seat looks safe:

    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/02/scotland-update-scottish-lib-dem-analysis.html/

  8. If UKIP are on the slide, and Ed +Ed don’t improve their appeal , there is hope for DC yet.

    Swingback is swingback provided it is there at the finishing line :-)

  9. I always think Ed B over analyses ,over calculates as many very bright people do.

    He is in a tricky position – unlike most senior politicians his own seat is a marginal and uniquely his wife wants to be leader and pm.He has ,like his mentor,carefully cultivaed a left image but he is actually supported by the labour hard right who are anti pr, anti lib dem and very tribal.

    With gb he also took the decision to let the city and its tax minimisers get on with it so he could use their tax payments to fund the nhs and education investment.

    Hes one mixed up politician -he knows Ed M didnt and doesnt want him as chancellor and would get rid if he could.Ed M will always mistrust him for ordering mad dog mcbride to put the blame on Ed M for GB bottling the 2007 non general election.Not exactly Tbgb but you get my drift.

  10. @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour and Tories tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%

  11. ouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour and Tories tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%

  12. CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%

  13. Sun Politics [email protected]_Politics · 22s22 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour and Tories tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%

  14. Smithson saying:

    ENGLAND ONLY shares from ComRes/Mail poll
    CON 36
    LAB 32
    LD 7
    UKIP 14
    GRN 9

    Taking that with the Scottish data:

    SNP 43
    LAB 24
    CON 20
    LIB 10

    I get a Con minority on Electoral Calculus…

  15. 0705
    “I always think Ed B over analyses ,over calculates as many very bright people do.”

    Are you kidding – I’m a supporter and I would not use those words to describe EB

  16. That’s a pretty rubbish set of results for UKIP. Any weighting issues that might have contributed?

  17. ComRes – E&W

    Con 35 : Lab 33 : UKIP 14 : Grn 8 : LD 7

    Sco (N=63)

    SNP 43 : Lab 24 : Con 20 : LD 10 : Grn 2

  18. YG CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%

  19. the discord between the two eds is another gift for cameron…

    cameron could well pull this out of the fire. impressive if he does.

  20. Hmmm, think I might go into the ‘fastest finger first’ game at this rate ;)

  21. @Oldnat

    I’m at the point of not caring of the sample sizes. They are all small, so they are all of equal accuracy (no matter how inaccurate). As long as the poll itself seems to be within the norms for the polls preceding it.

  22. Statgeek

    I think the sample size does affect the distribution of votes between the minor parties (ie Labour downwards! :-) )

    The stability of the SNP in crossbreaks at around 43% is, however, quite remarkable.

  23. From the ComRes data UKIP are strongest in Wales at 23%. Not sure how likely that is.

  24. OK, all the stats experts

    It does look like there has been a drop in UKIP numbers across a number of firms, and Yougov 2 days in a row now.

    But where the UKIP vote has gone does not look consistently correct, all to Labour per Ashcroft and Mori, all to Tories per Comres and ICM, mixed per Yougov. I’d believe we had real movement if that was more consistent.

    So is this a real poll move yet, or just more MOE noise?

  25. Peter Crawford,
    And not particularly impressive if he doesn’t .

  26. Does anyone have the results of tonight’s YouGov?

  27. Didn’t I say to @Notts Dave that ComRes’s phone poll would show a Tory lead!

    I may be wrong but I think ComRes has shown more Tory leads than anyone else. Unsurprising that the DM would decide to take them on.

  28. @ Richard,

    I think it is mixed, so you see some polls where the Kippers appear to go home to Lab and some where they appear to go home to Con but really it’s both. Although YouGov main party shares are still really low for Ukip at 13%. Maybe it’s all Ukip -> Green movement?

    It’s interesting that it doesn’t seem to be differentially helping the Tories, or only marginally so. Although perhaps that’s bad news for Labour under the First In, Last Out hypothesis!

  29. @ Funtypippin,

    Scroll up a bit. Old Nat just posted ’em.

  30. Four polls in one day. Breathless stuff. Two ties, one Labour lead, one Tory lead.

    That UKPR average of 33 v 32 still looks pretty steady from where I’m standing. UKIP maybe on the wane a tad, although Populus still have them on 15, but who’s benefiting from their decline is not clear. Ashcroft says Labour more than Tory, Com Res says Tory more than Labour. YouGov says both evenly. Populus says neither,

    All the fieldwork done before the Rifkind/Straw brouhaha broke, remember.

    It’s a funny old world, isn’t it?

    :-)

  31. I wonder how much the Ed vs. Ed stuff actually damages Labour, since no one believes they have their act together or trusts them on the economy anyway.

    It certainly doesn’t help, but you can’t really lose a reputation for competence you never had…

  32. This is fun from ComRes:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-j74goCcAAUcck.jpg

    Although those beliefs aren’t actually inconsistent.

  33. Ann in Wales,

    What about the performance of your man, Miliband?

  34. One possibility about who benefits from a fall in UKIP support might lie in looking at what is causing it.

    If we make a rather sweeping assumption that UKIP have gained retired middle class Tories from Cameron and low income working class from Labour then if and again this is a sweeping generalisation the Kippers exposed on TV seem to be upper or middle class then it could be Labour that benefits as the Kippers behaving badly look like Tories.

    If on the other hand it is Kippers from a Council estate talking about immigrants that has caused the damage then it might put of former Tories as it makes UKIP look like a party of Chavs.

    By trying to appeal to both Tory and Labour voters any story that identifies UKIP as more like one than the other threatens to alienate some of their new support.

    There is of course the other possibility that UKIP have been gathering the protest vote but that some have decided that the Greens are a better choice. UKIP to Green may seem strange but as Anthony often reminds us voters aren’t always clear why and what they vote for or even which party stands for what.

    If you are one of those 2 or 3% who are angry about the system and right now the lead story is about Tax Dodging Bankers not Immigration are you really going to protest by backing a Party fronted by a Tweed clad former banker?

    Peter.

  35. I’m suspicious of the Ashcroft poll so my sense is that Cons are gaining, possibly nudging ahead.

  36. @Crossbat XI

    Indeed. It’s very much as you were. As it has been for three mins or so.

    YG average:

    December 2014 – Con 32 Lab 33
    January 2015 – Con 32 Lab 33
    February 2015 (so far) Con 33 (32.56) Lab 34 (33.56).

  37. As i always say…if you want to understand UKIP look at the councillors, their activists, their donors…they are nearly all ex tories…i’d say of elected ukip officials ex tory activists and office holders, of whatever level, outnumber ex labourites 4 to 1.

    The core and brain of that party from Nigel Farage to Stewart Wheeler, Douglas Carswell, Mark Reckless, to that mad woman on the Channel 4 programme are South East Tories….

  38. GRAHAM
    “From the ComRes data UKIP are strongest in Wales at 23%. Not sure how likely that is”
    ________

    Nothing to worry about. Probably a sample error up weighting the Herefordshire retiree vote in Wales.

  39. Peter Cairns,

    I think that’s an interesting hypothesis. If UKIP’s image is turning in an anti-Carswellite direction, then that would presumably help the Tories moreso than Labour.

    One could add that UKIP moving towards the centre on public services etc. makes them less appealing for Carswell-style ex-Tories.

    A strategy I rarely hear from Tories is to attack UKIP from the (social) left!

  40. @ Peter Crawford,

    Every one of them privately educated, too. And yet they’re becoming the main opposition in much of the North.

    It shows the extent to which Cameron’s problem lies in how he presents himself and his political priorities, rather than his identity.

  41. I must say it’s been very quite without ole Rusty & Dandelion about.

    Have the pooches been put into quarantine?

  42. Oh dear! Messed up the html. Fixed now…

    Some unanswered questions from earlier on.

    @Richard

    The link to the piece covering pollster variability can be found here. It looks as if I was a bit unclear in what I was saying, but you interpreted my observations correctly in your comment posted at 7.52pm.

    @Shev – I wasn’t suggesting that Ashcroft polls are as stable as the bigger ones (without around 2000 respondents). What I was saying was that – based on the error bars in the article linked to above – it looked as if Ashcroft polls were about as stable/erratic as other polls of the same size (N roughly 1000).

    @Andy – you directed a question to me about polling corrections and allocating ‘don’t know’ responses. This is a tough matter to deal with and I don’t pretend to have any expertise on pre-publication polling data massaging. My own inclination would be to seek the opinion of @Roger Mexico who knows as much as anyone does about this side of polling methodology.

  43. @Richard

    So is this a real poll move yet, or just more MOE noise?

    Which part of what you wrote are you asking about? Whether the Ukip VI has dropped? Or something about the beneficiaries of any such shifts in support?

    On the latter the most convincing evidence I have seen comes from the ID-based churn analysis posted from time to time by @CMJ. I might have missed the most recent one, but a summary of the net changes sincd Jan 1 would make fascinating reading.

    On fading Ukip support, their figures are certainly reliably below their 2014 trends (by about 1.5-2%), and have been for every week bar one since Jan 1st. However, since the long-term trend was a steady rise in VI, this doesn’t answer the question of whether there has been a recent fall . It could just be that their support levels have topped out.

    To answer the question of whether there has been a drop in VI you would have to specify a reference point. Are you asking whether there has been a reliable drop,since Jan 1, or sincd Feb 1, or what?

    Given a more specific question I could attempt to provide an answer (as no doubt a lot of others could do equally well).

  44. @Unicorn

    Thanks. My specific question is – there is speculation that the recent channel 4 program “UKIP’s first 100 days”, aired last Monday, plus the BBC documentary “meet the UKIPpers’ aired last night plus publicity has caused a drop in UKIP support.

    We also have a number of polls showing a recent material drop in UKIP support
    – Ashcroft – down 5%
    – Comres phone – down 4%
    – Yougov – hit recent UKIP lows for this year on Sunday and Monday

    But we have some polls that do not show a drop
    – Populus
    – Opinium

    So from a statistical viewpoint, how can you measure if there has been a drop, or if this is all random sample variation?

    Or do we need to wait a week or so for the picture to become more clear as we don’t have enough data yet?

  45. @Richard

    Whether a run of data shows significant change is control chart territory.

    Regular control charts show changes of 1.5 SDs or higher, snd CUSUM charts pick up changes less than 1.5 SDs

    I will have look at lunchtime (ish) today.

  46. @Unicorn

    I will post your chart tomorrow.

    (I was busy this weekend).

  47. @Richard

    “how can you measure”

    I think that “wait” is always fair advice. See if subsequent polls carry similar data and if that data is within MoE.

  48. @CMJ

    Is there a ‘CUSUM for beginners’ tutorial somewhere? When I look at a chart that start and ends on zero, I get all flummoxed as to what I am seeing. I appreciate you’re measuring change, but I fail to extrapolate any conclusions beyond normal churn. It’s the brain…it doesn’t care for that kind of chart (it’s my fault – it does the same with algebraic formulae).

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