Monday tends to be the busiest day of the week for polling (not least because phone polls are mostly conducted across the weekend). We have four polls due today: Populus, Ashcroft, YouGov and ComRes. ComRes’s poll tonight will be in the Daily Mail, who seem to have taken over ComRes’s phone polls from the Independent, their host since 2006.

The twice-weekly poll from Populus has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6% (tabs here). This is their first poll of 2015 not to show a Labour lead.

The weekly poll from Lord Ashcroft meanwhile has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 8% (tabs here). This is his largest Labour lead of 2015 so far, and UKIP are sharply down – 11 points is the lowest UKIP have recorded in an Ashcroft poll. The online/phone poll contrast in terms of UKIP support seems to be alive and well, with the last three phone polls from MORI, ICM and Ashcroft giving UKIP scores of 9, 9 and 11 respectively, but online polls continuing to show them in the teens.

UPDATE: Here are tonight’s other two polls. ComRes in the Daily Mail have figures of CON 34%(+3), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 13%(-4), GRN 8%(+1). The two point Conservative lead is the largest ComRes have shown since 2010, and their UKIP score is the lowest since last Spring. Meanwhile YouGov in the Sun have topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%.

Putting today’s four polls together we have one Labour lead, one Tory lead, and two polls showing the parties neck-and-neck – all perfectly in line with normal sample variation around the parties being pretty much neck-and-neck, probably with Labour just ahead. Note the UKIP picture though – all the regular phone polls have them at their lowest score for some time, and 13 points is equal to YouGov’s lowest score for them this year. The trend is difficult to discern given the wide variations between different pollsters, but looking at the average of the February polls so far UKIP do seem to be down slightly.


364 Responses to “Monday’s polls – UPDATED”

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  1. Outlier-not possible for Cons to get 35%

  2. Are we going to see the cross-over in March on the UKPR Average?

  3. I missed the morning ‘fun’ but caught NB on DP with Jo Coburn.
    It was a bit horrible, with Coburn sneering and allowing NB very little time. I suppose fairly standard TV pol interviewing, but shedding no light on the policies: merely feeding the interviewer’s ego and (being generous) testing the politician under hostile fire.
    No way I’ll vote Green this time – which has little to do with their policies or leadership and everything to do with psephological realities – but as others have said, they have constructed some base camps. Whilst Lab remain determinedly centre/Blairite/rightish people will be attracted to a more radical left alternative.

  4. Tense?

    Hopefully future perfect. i.e. Labour will have taken the lead. ;-)

  5. That’s a grammar joke for tomorrow. :-)

  6. Two polls today. Tories on 28 with Survation and 35 with YouGov. Why don’t we just split the difference and say 31.5.

    Sounds familiar.

    :-)

  7. I am puzzled by all these polls.All 5 parties are all over the shop, and it looks like more than MOE, and many shouts of outlier, which cant be as regular as some would make you believe.

  8. @VON etc

    After my parents died I found a letter they had preserved from me at boarding school:
    ‘What do you think of this Cuba business? I expect it will blow over’

    And my father’s comment ‘The thoughts of a 9 year old on the greatest crisis the world has ever known’

  9. @Colin

    Very interesting…..

    If the Tories can keep this up this the Feb YouGov average may end up 33/33.

  10. @Amber
    “Tense?
    Hopefully future perfect. i.e. Labour will have taken the lead. ;-)”

    My favourite post for some time :)

  11. @Colin
    “Outlier-not possible for Cons to get 35%”

    Not possible for the Tories to get ABOVE 35%. They have had a few 35s.

  12. @Amber

    Contrasts with past imperfect: “the conservatives have been in charge for too long”

  13. @MOG, Amber

    Well if it’s grammar you want, some of the Amazonian languages have a form called a “frustrative”, meaning “I want to but can’t”.

    The fact that English doesn’t have this case is….well, frustrative!

  14. @PI

    Can we have another new tense: future buggerative. As in “I’ll be buggered if I’ll vote for any of that lot”.

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