There are only two voting intention polls in the Sunday papers – the regular weekly Opinium and YouGov polls for the Observer and Sunday Times respectively.

The Opinium/Observer poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%. This is the first time that Opinium have shown a Conservative lead since back in 2012, just before the Omnishambles budget. As ever though, it’s just one poll – taking a broad average of the polls suggests that the actual position of public opinion is a very small Labour lead, so it’s inevitable that normal sample variation will spit out some Tory leads from time to time. Doesn’t mean much unless they start getting more frequent. Tables are here

The YouGov/Sunday Times poll has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%. The one point Labour lead is very much in line with YouGov’s average. The 13 percent figure for UKIP is equal to the party’s lowest from YouGov this year, but a lowest we’ve already seen a couple of times, so again, not necessarily anything new. Tables will be on the YouGov website tomorrow.


428 Responses to “Latest Opinium and YouGov polls”

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  1. @ Fareham Grecian

    polldrums

    Perhaps one could quibble with that a bit. Granted, not a lot seems to have been happening. But as my trend analyses show, the LibDems have recently arrested (or perhaps just reduced) their long-term steady VI drop. Also. Ukip’s inexorable rise over the whole of last year has definitely been checked and perhaps reversed. I don’t think anyone believes that these changes – to date – are large enough to alter the balance of seat projections. But they are signs of a gentle breeze in the air and they could become more newsworthy if the winds continue to build up.

  2. @oldnat

    The Survation constituency polls were commissioned by the Lib Dems in their seats (except Scotland, apparently). They were first highlighted in a Guardian story on Friday which took the “we’re doing better where we’re stronger” line.

    Survation have since said they will publish (some of?) these polls.

  3. James

    Thanks.

    I hadn’t made the connection.

  4. Couper – a lot of journos seemed to leap to that conclusion on twitter, but I think the only new info here is that we know which order the three debates are happening, the dates were already known and we don’t have any confirmation that any of the parties have agreed terms yet.

    The cynic in me thinks the timing of this little nugget of info might be trying to keep momentum going after the newspaper stories at the weekend about them being dead.

  5. So, even good old Populus are joining the pollster herd now and detecting pitifully low support for both Labour and the Tories. They’ve abandoned the 35% strategy.

    Our old friends, and I suppose we better not say quite yet, partners in crime, Messrs Rifkind and Straw, won’t help either. If ever the voters needed further evidence to reinforce their growing contempt for mainstream politicians, and the parties from which they come, then Rifkind and Straw couldn’t have done a better job providing it.

    I heard Rifkind being interviewed by Humpheys on Radio 4 this morning. Somebody should have told him that if you’re in a hole then it’s quite a good idea to stop digging. Great chutzpah but, dear oh dear, painful listening.

  6. The busiest Post Office in the UK?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-31577760

    “Tesco wants to shut the Kirkcaldy superstore, which doubles as the town’s post office”

    Population of Kirkcaldy: 46,912

    :))

  7. Unicorn
    “If anything has happened recently it is the sense that Ukip is looking increasingly disorganised and amateurish. ”

    To some, that is part of the appeal. Professional politicians like Rifkind and Straw are not to be preferred to amateurs, judging from their latest shenanigans.

  8. @ James,

    You make a fair point. I can’t see anything on the horizon in Scottish politics that might trigger a reversal of the SNP’s rise, but then I didn’t foresee the rise either.

  9. @Spearmint

    Well if Twitter is anything to go by (which is not to say it is), there has been a marked rise in ‘vote SNP get Tory’ activity from Labour, and it seems to have kicked off the idea from some that Labour voters in seats where Labour is likely to come 3rd should vote anything but SNP (even Tory).

    Which puts things in perspective.

  10. ANTHONY WELLS
    The cynic in me thinks the timing of this little nugget of info might be trying to keep momentum going after the newspaper stories at the weekend about them being dead.

    The BBC seem to agree with you. Their “Politics Live – campaign countdown” page posted the timetable as “Breaking News” at 10:53 WET and by 11:27 they had already posted 2 caveats.

    See http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-31564949

  11. From Norman Smith (BBC Assistant Political Editor – 11:27):

    “There’s a humongous question mark about whether the TV debates will actually take place. Today’s news is just the running order the broadcasters would like to see happen.

    I’d say it’s looking very shaky indeed for several reasons. Chiefly the fact that David Cameron wants the debates – if they happen at all – to take place in March rather than April, because he says that otherwise they knock the wind out of the sails of the rest of the campaign.

    Another big issue is the fact that the DUP has not been included and is threatening legal action if the debates go ahead without them. “

  12. @Unicorn
    Thanks for your responses, I enjoy your detailed posts. I think you’re right about the LibDem and UKIP trends, but there seems to have been very little movement back to the Big Two, if any. In previous campaigns the ‘swingback’ a lot of people seem to be expecting had already happened by this stage, so I can only put the continuing expectation from some that it will still happen this time down to wishful thinking!

  13. OldNat

    As James said these are the (selected) Lib Dem polls that Ryan Coetzee promised to publish in that Guardian interview. I strongly suspect that that was the first that Survation had heard of the promise to publish, which explains the gap in time between the piece and Survation’s rather vague timetable.

    Presumably the interim was taken with Damian patiently explaining that it would take time to get things ready and, yes, they would like more money for it and, no, they were not going to lose their weekends just because Ryan Coetzee couldn’t be sensible in interviews. He may also have suggested that by next week everyone would have forgotten about them and would not look at them properly. (No chance :P)

  14. Rifkind has had the whip removed, pending an investigation into the “cash for access” allegations.

    Despite this, he says he will not stand down as Chair of the ISC unless the other committee members want him to.

  15. Swingback
    I agree that this GE seems very different to recent ones, but let’s not forget that there will be another budget before the election. Osborne could bribe the electorate and the Tories get in on the short-lived wave of euphoria!

  16. Roger Mexico

    Thanks.

  17. Pete B
    “Tories get in on the short-lived wave of euphoria!”

    The polling boost gained by giveaways in any budgets tend to be over after a few days.

    The budget is on March 18th so any polling boost is likely to have dissipated by election day.

  18. I bet George Osborne won’t mention pasties in the budget….

  19. @ Bramley,

    That, and the question of “Who passes this giveaway budget, when the Tories’ main electoral targets are their coalition partners?” remains unanswered.

  20. No rivalry is so vicious as that between people who basically agree.

    Leave aside the party policies and structures for a minute, and you’ll find that if you quizzed them, most Labour, Green, Plaid and SNP supporters would probably have rather similar views.

    I’m curious as to what it is that makes their antipathy towards one another so strong, beyond the suspicion that those in the other party (whichever one) aren’t really what they say they are and are trying to screw people over for nefarious purposes.

  21. I listened very carefuult to Malcom Rifkind on Radio 4 this morning.

    If his version of events is the correct one (and I have no reason to think otherwise), I think that he has done nothing more that all those other MPs who have private interests.

    I have not heard Jack Straw, so cannot comment.

    I am uneasy about MPs having private interests while serving in Parliament, but the answer is not to pillory two people, but to reform the whole system.

    My gut feeling is that nothing much will happen once these cases are investigated (probably correct if in fact they are not deviations from the norm), but the stock of MPs will fall further still in the eyes of the public.

  22. Pete B

    The issue there is how open the electorate are to a bribe. After 5 years of being told there’s no money left the electorate might view a bribe with suspicion.

  23. From the SurvationSNP poll

    To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “The more Scottish National Party MPs that are elected at the General Election in May, the stronger Scotland’s voice will be in Westminster”

    Agree / Neither:DK / Disagree

    Con VI – 41/28/31
    Lab – 46/20/29
    LD – 46/20/34
    SNP – 91/8/1

    The SNP figures are hardly surprising!

    It isn’t, of course, true – as the SNP imply – that most voters for all parties agree with the proposition, just more agree than disagree.

    Even accepting that some Unionist voters will agree with the proposition, but consider that to be a “bad thing”, the SNP will consider the numbers as confirmation of a successful narrative.

  24. @Mr Nameless

    It’s not just politics – look at religion.

    Consider the fact that far more unites Christians, Muslims and Jews than separates them. They believe in the same God, share many prophets and have very similar principles at source.

    That hasn’t stopped them bashing each other senseless for centuries over ‘differences’.

  25. Hmm, not sure I agree with that CMJ. The teachings of Christ and the teachings of the Prophet are very, very different.

    At no point to JC order the beheading of hundreds of prisoners, some of them children…

  26. *At no point did JC order

  27. @Neil A

    The old testament is full of all sorts of stuff that would look out of touch in the modern world.

    Those commitng mass beheadings are not adhering to mainstream Islam either.

  28. @CMJ,

    It depends who they behead. My point was that the Prophet personally ordered the beheading of prisoners, something that would be anathema to the (direct) teachings of JC. There is indeed a lot of awful violence in the Old Testament, and one of the central contradictions of Christianity is how to square the idea that JC was both repudiating and referring to Old Testament teaching simultaneously. But at its core, Christianity is about “what Jesus said” and Islam is about “what the Prophet said”. My point is that the attributed statements of the two are like chalk and cheese.

  29. @Oldnat

    “It isn’t, of course, true – as the SNP imply – that most voters for all parties agree with the proposition, just more agree than disagree.”

    We have a first past the post system. It looks as if the ‘agrees’ have it, the ‘agrees’ have it.

  30. @ Catmanjeff,

    I am uneasy about MPs having private interests while serving in Parliament, but the answer is not to pillory two people, but to reform the whole system.

    Labour have pledged to ban second jobs and cap outside earnings, and I can’t imagine the smaller parties are in favour of the present system. Reform could be an election away…

    @ Neil A,

    JC didn’t have any prisoners. His dad sure ordered a genocide or two back in the day, though.

  31. Neil A

    Matthew 5::17
    “Don’t misunderstand why I have come. I did not come to abolish the law of Moses or the writings of the prophets. No, I came to accomplish their purpose.”
    ?

  32. This comes from the Stating The Obvious Department:

    http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=11199

    “Political discussions on Twitter during elections are dominated by those with extreme views”

  33. I find it extraordinary that some one on unemployment payments can’t work more than 12 hours a week (paid) without having the benefit removed yet MP’s who earn quite a good salary paid for by us can potentially earn thousands on the side.

    EM at least has come out and said none of his MP’s after the next election can have two jobs but instead work for their constituents.

    As a voter myself I expect every MP from all parties to put their constituents first.

  34. @ Norbold,

    That’s not necessarily contradictory, though. I mean, the Amaleks had been dead for centuries; they’d already accomplished that bit.

  35. CMJ

    @”My gut feeling is that nothing much will happen once these cases are investigated (probably correct if in fact they are not deviations from the norm), but the stock of MPs will fall further still in the eyes of the public.”

    Having heard both of them this morning-I agree.

  36. CATMANJEFF

    “I listened very carefuult to Malcom Rifkind on Radio 4 this morning.
    If his version of events is the correct one (and I have no reason to think otherwise), I think that he has done nothing more that all those other MPs who have private interests.
    I have not heard Jack Straw, so cannot comment.

    I am uneasy about MPs having private interests while serving in Parliament, but the answer is not to pillory two people, but to reform the whole system.

    My gut feeling is that nothing much will happen once these cases are investigated (probably correct if in fact they are not deviations from the norm), but the stock of MPs will fall further still in the eyes of the public”
    _________

    Totally agree with your comment and indeed the whole system needs to be looked but we are talking about MP’s here and they only put their own vested interests first before that of the people who elected them.

  37. @Crossbat XI

    Populus (unweighted) said to be:
    Lab 35, Con 29.

    Now, pollsters have to apply some sort of weighting, but it seems a bit much for the weightings to take the results from Lab +6 to level.

  38. @RAF.

    Why?

  39. I think I just heard our PM say on BBC News that he rejected Ed Miliband’s proposals on 2nd jobs because Ed was proposing that Trade Union leaders could keep their jobs, whereas everybody else had to give theirs up! Did he really say that??? (Cameron I mean, not Miliband).

  40. @ Crossbat and RAF,

    Just for a bit of fun as Peter Snow would say, I popped today’s Populus into Ye Olde Correctly Weighed Recalled 2010 Vote Spreadsheete, and the Tories are actually down a bit at 35% in today’s poll, instead of hovering in the mid-forties like usual.

    So for a Populus poll this is probably about as accurate as it gets! ;)

  41. @Neil A

    If you have to make that much of an adjustment, I submit that there a problems with your panel. If they don’t have enough Conservative panelists that issue should have been addressed some time ago. Adjusting the results in the way they have suggests an element of a projection of the final result rather than a snapshot of those polled.

  42. Ashcroft saying his poll at 4pm will be “interesting”- aren’t they all?

  43. 2010 versus 2014 Voting results in England

    Am off to Revelstoke (four hours drive with ferry) for our first organizing meeting tonight, but observe this list does seem to go around the houses a lot.

    In the absence of appropriate polling data for England a review of 2010 local government elections in England (on the same day as the 2010 GE), as compared to the 2014 local government elections (on the same day as the European elections) shows a considerable change in voting patterns:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OaiBR-u0zX0ASDtvMGoiQQrsm609h9KQsiY2DUKV_u8/edit?pli=1#gid=0

    1. 1n 2014 Labour and Conservative ran candidates in 98.9% and 98.2% of the council seats being contested, LD in 69%, UKIP 51.1% and Green 44%.

    2. Look at the collapse of the LD vote, especially in London where they lost 67.9% of their voters.

    3. Look at the rise in UKIP support even when they only ran in half the seats and the impact that increase had on the overall level of Conservative support.

    4. The fact that Green while only running in 44% of the council seats still managed to nearly double the percentage of their support between 2010 and 2014, and beat UKIP in London.

    5. Overall Green obtained 7.1% in the European election in England, but 6.6% running for 44% of the local council seats.

    6. While voter turnout declined by 5,392,000, the number of voters supporting UKIP increased by 1,032,000 and those supporting Green by 51,900.

    7. In contrast approximately 2,308,000 fewer people showed up to vote LD, 2,272,000 fewer voted Conservative and 1,418,000 fewer voted Labour.

    8. Changes in voting patterns in some metropolitan boroughs by region around England can be found here:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11urmBUZhN4WwzQXTyAWUGa2GdJztpm89jsR2k01sSl0/edit?pli=1#gid=0

    9. Look, especially, at the changes in Dudley, Solihul, Manchester, Liverpool, Rotherham, Sheffield, and look at the switch from BNP and English Democrats to UKIP in South Yorkshire.

    10. Is it unreasonable to predict that pollsters using a 2010 only weighting method, that does not factor in 2014 results, are clearly in for a rude shock on May 8th? Swingback becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy when your modelling is all wrong and somewhere in between lies the truth I suppose.

  44. Ashcroft does my tits in with his stupid tweets.

  45. @AW

    Thank you – I was concerned.

  46. Norbold

    Lol, nah, not quite like that.

    BBC Politics Live says:

    12:16
    The prime minister says he is not completely against MPs having second jobs. On Labour’s proposals to limit the amount MPs could earn from second jobs, he says they would allow someone to be a trade union official but not “to run the family shop” or something similar.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-31564949

  47. Thanks Bramley, but how does he reach that conclusion?

  48. Blimey Norbold, you don’t expect me to be able to answer that do you ? :)

    I thought he must be feeling under the weather today seeing as he only referred to union officials instead of the usual ‘barons’…

  49. @Barbanzenzero

    To make myself absolutely clear, I do not believe that the SNP would prop up a Tory government in the UK. I believe this because I don’t think that by and large they’re bonkers (Allan Christie being an obvious exception there). It would be political suicide, and crass stupidity given we have a good recent example of how collaboration can affect a political party,

    That doesn’t alter the fact that the SNP as a party might thrive better under a Tory or LibCon government whilst not being part of that government or in any way supportive of it. The path to independence might be easier and shorter. After all, Salmond and Cameron have made a deal about a referendum before.

    That’s not the same, of course, as saying that the SNP are plotting to put the Tories into power, which neither I nor the despicable Rawsley have said. I don’t really understand why this quite obvious idea is so difficult to grasp.

  50. @CMJ

    “If his version of events is the correct one (and I have no reason to think otherwise), I think that he has done nothing more that all those other MPs who have private interests.”

    None of us have seen the actual Channel 4 footage yet, so we should reserve judgement until then I suppose, but Rifkind had no explanation when talking to Humphreys this morning, as to why he’d claimed to be self-employed and not in receipt of a salary. He claimed it was a “silly error”, or words to that effect, but he’s going to find it difficult to avoid the accusation that he was being deliberately evasive.

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