There are only two voting intention polls in the Sunday papers – the regular weekly Opinium and YouGov polls for the Observer and Sunday Times respectively.

The Opinium/Observer poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%. This is the first time that Opinium have shown a Conservative lead since back in 2012, just before the Omnishambles budget. As ever though, it’s just one poll – taking a broad average of the polls suggests that the actual position of public opinion is a very small Labour lead, so it’s inevitable that normal sample variation will spit out some Tory leads from time to time. Doesn’t mean much unless they start getting more frequent. Tables are here

The YouGov/Sunday Times poll has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%. The one point Labour lead is very much in line with YouGov’s average. The 13 percent figure for UKIP is equal to the party’s lowest from YouGov this year, but a lowest we’ve already seen a couple of times, so again, not necessarily anything new. Tables will be on the YouGov website tomorrow.


428 Responses to “Latest Opinium and YouGov polls”

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  1. @Richard

    I saw your second post – weighting because you think you have too many smaller party supporters in your sample if fine. But weighting because you think the VI is soft and might be squeezed is wrong.

  2. @Mike

    “The Conservatives outpolled Labour in 2005, I would say that means they won.They have enacted a lot of their policies, again an outcome of winning.”

    Careful. It’s a UK wide election remember, and while the Tories fractionally out-polled Labour in England, the overall election result was as follows: –

    Labour – 355 seats: 9,552,436 votes (35.2%)
    Tories – 198 seats: 8,784, 915 votes (32.4%)

    Labour’s overall majority was 64. General elections are won in terms of Parliamentary seats gained, not on the basis of votes cast for each party and, on that basis, Labour won in 2005.

    And, on that same basis and criteria, the Tories clearly didn’t win in 2010. Keith P is right to say what he did.

    I won’t go into the vagaries and iniquities of our voting system, but the rules are the rules and if you fail to obtain an overall majority of parliamentary seats, you haven’t won the election. Neither is it sensible to compare percentage shares of votes across different elections. 35% might win it one year and lose it the next, but that’s irrelevant and a bit like saying you always need three goals to win a football match. One goal does it sometimes; the outcome rests on what your opponents do.

  3. Yes: Patrick Wintour: game changer? We will see soon

  4. @Crossbat

    I think @Mike meant 2010.

  5. Patrick Wintour of the G has tweeted that a big political story will break later tonight.

    Not sure if it is UK or polling related.

    The Chuckle brothers don’t like how Ed eats a bacon sandwich?

  6. Lib Dems lead in a poll. It’s a bit of an outlier.

  7. Or maybe UKIP ahead of the SNP in the Scottish crossbreaks.

  8. Sturgeon agreed to throw tonight’s game against England in return for Devo Max?

  9. @Couper

    Yes, I agree 100%. I think polls should be more precise about what they have measured vs what they are predicting, and the assumptions they make in those predictions. Especially where those predictions could materially impact the result.

    For example those Sheffield Hallam polls are all nonsense with that many undecided voters.

    They should rather have said something like
    Lab 25
    LD 22
    Undecided 22

    (Figures made up)

    Rather than try and allocate those undecided voters.

  10. @Richard

    Definitely, similarly with the TNS Scottish poll with over 40% not giving a response (Twice as many as YouGov). Another annoying thing about TNS is the % given was for the VI question plus a squeeze question TNS didnt split out the two. So I don’t know how many people answered with a definite VI or are just leaning one way I think TNS samples are seriously skewed towards the politically apathetic.

  11. Patrick Wintour [email protected] · 2m2 minutes ago

    Straw and Rifkind in latest cash for access scandal

  12. @Oldnat

    Straw and Rifkind? Big news? Hmm…

  13. @OldNat

    Well I guess Rifkind is head of the Intelligence and Security Committee. So he may matter a bit.

    Jack Straw has now front bench or SC lead role at all.

  14. RAF

    It’s tomorrow’s Ch 4 Despatches programme.

    Two old school politicians showing that things haven’t changed.

    I can’t see it changing votes – but might reinforce decisions to vote against establishment parties .

  15. @Oldnat

    Yes. It could help the SNP and Ukip I suppose.

    I’ve heard some stories about one of those gentlemen in the past. That is all I will say.

  16. The Telegraph has it here;

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/investigations/11411007/Jack-Straw-and-Sir-Malcolm-Rifkind-in-latest-cash-for-access-scandal.html

    Potentially good for anti “Westminster Elite/Establishment” Parties;

    UKIP, SNP & Greens.

    Peter.

  17. Meet the ukippers starting BBC2.
    Free PPB or hatchet job. You decide.

  18. @OldNat

    Lol!

    Jack Straw is very linked to the Iraq war. He was Foreign Sec at the time. I hardly see how he can be linked to EM.

    Equally, despite his Select Committee role, Rifkind is not close to DC or the current government.

  19. RAF

    I don’t think that the subtleties of whether these “gentlemen” are close to the current party leaders or not will have much influence on most of those who see the story on the news.

  20. Oldnat
    Beat me to it. It’s just another brick in the wall of the sleaze narrative (as they say nowadays).

  21. Scotland are getting hammered at Cricket!

    It only started at 10.00 and after 20 minutes it’s 9-0 to England already…

    God knows what it will be in 25 minutes at half time!!!!

    Peter.

  22. @OldNat

    “I don’t think that the subtleties of whether these “gentlemen” are close to the current party leaders or not will have much influence on most of those who see the story on the news.”

    Spot on. It will provide another recruiting sergeant for UKIP and the Greens in England and for the SNP in Scotland.

    As if they needed any more recruiting sergeants.

  23. SNP tweeting more results from their additional Qs on the Survation poll.

    “POLL: New @Survation finding out on Monday. Big majority (Yes & No voters) for case that more @theSNP MPs means stronger voice for Scotland.”

    I presume they are (sensibly) releasing results of the questions that suit their narrative.

  24. Neither of these gentleman have gone down in my estimation as a result of these revelations. They couldn’t get any lower than I already rated them – Jack Straw being a pet hate of mine.

    Schadenfreude is an ugly emotion, but I don’t mind looking ugly for these two.

    Doubt it’ll mean much at all. The voters who hate the “Duopoly” have, by and large, already deserted. It might firm up their decision, and reduce reversion to their former allegiance though.

  25. Didn’t Jack Straw have something to do with a Test Match pitch being dug up?

  26. Straw has referred himself to the standards committee and has defended his actions, saying he declared his interests etc. It will depend on the detail.

    Rifkind’s position may be a touch more awkward, due to his current official role, but he hasn’t appeared to have made a statement yet and again, it will depend on the detail.

    It doesn’t look like a major vote swinger.

    On the week, a sense that Tories have had a better week, Labour less so. Lots of sniping on the left, but little sin yet of anything actually moving.

  27. @Richard

    So this is my observable dilemna with UK pollsters. Under an FPTP system in British Columbia, in 1996 the Green Party attained just a fraction under 2% support.

    In the subsequent 2001 election they attained 12.4%, due to a very unpopular NDP (Labour) government being thrown out of office and being reduced to 2 seats.

    In 2005, 2009 and 2013 the Green Party attained 9.2%, 8.2% and 8.1% support, and while the pollsters in 2009 and 2013 overestimated support for the Green Party some of them were within 2% in 2009 and 1% in 2013.

    What I observed in the UK prior to the 2014 European election was that some British pollsters were overcompensating for the Green Party polling bubble. I had not very often seen a Green Party recieve more votes than polling numbers predicted in the week before the election.

    I also think the swing from “I’d like to vote for this Party” to actually doing it has changed for SNP, UKIP and Green, more so for SNP.

    SNP is in government, so people actually now know what they are like in office. Similarly in British Columbia we have had a Green MP since 2011 and a Green MLA from 2013, and one in five British Columbians like the leader of the federal Green Party more than the leaders of the other three main federal parties.

    In Canada our pollsters periodically ask what people think about Green Party leaders and they also poll to find out what peoples second party of choice is, so you can actually track where voters might move to if they are unsure of how they will vote.

    In the UK in 2010 a Green MP was elected and by all accounts has done a pretty fair job as a Parliamentarian. The Green Party now has three MEPs and more local government councillors than in 2010.

    So I think, and I believe it will be the same for UKIP and the SNP, that more people will actaully vote Green, UKIP, SNP in this election than in 2010, because they have actually experienced having those party members as elected officials at some level to represent them.

    In British Columba, in the lead up to our federal election in October, the Green Party is now polling in the low teens and has been the second highest polling party on Vancouver Island provincially since last summer, and came within a whisker of taking a second seat in a federal by-election in Victoria, the capital.

    I am obviously not in the UK, but I think that at some point when a Party breaks out of the 1% to 2% range and then starts electing more and more people, that the swingback in the last week before an election is much less than when they first started runnng candidates.

    SNP obviously know how to run a good ground campaign, but so I suspect are Green and UKIP campaigners more out and about than in 2010. And I suspect that LD, as I have said before, will be less visible in the 2015 campaign.

  28. Emotionally very torn tonight.

    Always support Scotland, but similarly always have a soft spot for the underdog.

  29. Patrick Wintour,
    One look at his face is enough.

  30. 62-0 after 45minutes…blow the whistle Ref we need to get in for a good talking to by the manager….what disaster for Scotland!

    Peter.

  31. Andy Shadrack

    I think the problem for the English minority parties is the lack of any alternative to Westminster, other than local councils – especially as both of those levels are elected on FPTP.

    Might the Canadian long experience of having meaningful governance at both Federal and Provincial levels provide greater opportunities to break the mould of Establishment parties?

  32. @Pete B

    “Didn’t Jack Straw have something to do with a Test Match pitch being dug up?”

    I think you’ll find that was Peter Hain, a very different kettle of sausages.

    Perhaps some Peter solidarity is called for – Hain to do some digging for Cairns to help Scotland who now are losing 81 – nil

  33. Peter

    I can only hope that Aberdeen replicate that against Celtic on Saturday.

  34. “SNP is in government, so people actually now know what they are like in office. ”

    To a point. People actually have little idea what they would do on macro-economic fiscal and monetary issues. Which are the BIG practical (and, to some extent, philosophical) issues facing a Govt.

  35. PETE B
    “Didn’t Jack Straw have something to do with a Test Match pitch being dug up?”

    No, that was Peter Hain.

    Jack Straw has been suspended from the Labour Party. Swift action.

  36. Oh yes, Straw was active in student politics around the same time. I think he might have defended Hain in a debate or soemthing, but that could be another false memory.

  37. Oldnat,

    You’ll get closer to 81 fans than 81 goals……

    Peter.

  38. Moeen Ali, a good Worcester Man (as opposed to Mondeo Man) doing the business for England. 65 not out off 53 balls.

    Go Mo!

    :-)

  39. Loughton North vindicated at last!

    Back in 1973, when I was a member of the Loughton North Labour Party (Epping Forest Constituency) we interviewed Jack Straw for our PPC. We turned him down.

  40. ANDY SHADRACK

    Thanks for your in depth analysis. It is hard to see where the Tories can pick up additional seats and the UKIP factor could make it easier for Labour to pick off some weaker Tory seats in the South, however I’m just taking a broad view that the national polls will shift towards the Tories come May and they will pick up LibDem and some Labour seats.

    Not enough for a majority but enough to stay in power. I’m just thinking Labour really should be well ahead by now if they were going to win but my guess is Mr C will be PM.

  41. @Norbold

    Good for you :)

    I’m finding hard to write about JS without going into moderarion!

  42. Moderation.

  43. OLD NAT

    NDP (Labour) queering their own pitch in British Columbia between 1996 and 2001 really assisted the Green Party in their breakthrough, but in 2001 the media consortium decided to invite the Green Party into the Leaders debates, in part because the corporate media wanted to stick it to the NDP.

    But the first seat in Canada came in 2011 at a federal level, albeit in British Columbia. What assisted the Green Party federally was a decision by a Liberal Prime Minister to fund any political party that obtained 2% or more, $10 (5 Pounds equivalent) per vote.

    So between 2003 and 2004 the Canadian Green Party went from an income of $20,000 to $1 million in state funding. Now the Green Party was the only one to break out of the rat pack of minor parties between 2003 and 2004, by borrowing $500,000 and running a full slate in the 2004 federal election.

    The gamble paid off and in 2014 the Canadian Green Party raised as much in citizen donations as UKIP. The introduction of state funding, now eliminated by the Conservative government, came with a trade-off, limiting corporate, trade union and other organizational funding to $1,000 a year to a Party and candidate.

    That has now been elimated under the Conservative government, while retaining a maximum individual contribution at $1,200 a year, indexed to inflation.

    It will, in my opinion, be very difficult for a minor party to grow into a major one, and the Green Party just happened to be in the right place at the right time federally.

    So the Green Party first elected local councillors in the larger cities, then one MP federally in 2011, a British Columbian MLA in 2013 and in New Brunswick in 2014.

    The Green Party in the UK from what I can glean, at least in England, has more bench strength than the federal Green and provincial parties here in Canada.

  44. Presumably Rifkind’s actions will be lauded by his electors as showing entrepreneurial initiative?

  45. Final note on JS.

    He is standing down at the GE in any event. He decided this last year and Labour already have a candidate for the seat.

    This is how Blackburn voted last time
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/blackburn/

    Given that the Telgraph story hurts both Lab and Con, and how far behind all other parties were to the big two in 2010, Labour should still retain the seat.

  46. RAF
    @AC
    Whereas when in government he enthusuastically advocated the Iraq war, when in a key position to influence things. I’m sorry. I say good riddance.
    ________

    Mother Teresa could had been in Blair’s government and we would had still gone to war. When you’re joined at the hips with the Americans which we have been sine the end of WW2 then you do as they say.

  47. @AC

    Robin Cook resigned, why didn’t Jack Straw? I think the Telegraph story is your answer.

  48. AMBER

    “But my personal view is that Labour won’t need the SNP’s votes anyway”
    __________

    Not even if OleNat had the casting vote in East Ren on whether JM kept his seat or not?

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