There are only two voting intention polls in the Sunday papers – the regular weekly Opinium and YouGov polls for the Observer and Sunday Times respectively.

The Opinium/Observer poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%. This is the first time that Opinium have shown a Conservative lead since back in 2012, just before the Omnishambles budget. As ever though, it’s just one poll – taking a broad average of the polls suggests that the actual position of public opinion is a very small Labour lead, so it’s inevitable that normal sample variation will spit out some Tory leads from time to time. Doesn’t mean much unless they start getting more frequent. Tables are here

The YouGov/Sunday Times poll has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%. The one point Labour lead is very much in line with YouGov’s average. The 13 percent figure for UKIP is equal to the party’s lowest from YouGov this year, but a lowest we’ve already seen a couple of times, so again, not necessarily anything new. Tables will be on the YouGov website tomorrow.


428 Responses to “Latest Opinium and YouGov polls”

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  1. teetering…

  2. FIRST

  3. These polls can’t be right, can they? A Labour lead, yet the Tories have cleared up the mess they inherited and fixed the economy, Dave’s such a nice chap and all that, Ball’s has fiddled his gardener and the Greeks are doomed (as is the Ukranian ceasefire).

    Am I getting the hang of this polling malarkey now?

    :-)

  4. CB11

    “Am I getting the hang of this polling malarkey now?”

    Sorry. You also have to mention football.

    Sunday Herald tweeting about a Scottish poll tomorrow (though they haven’t mentioned VI) AND they cover Aberdeen’s glorious victory over St Mirren.

  5. The polls continue their slow but steady shift to the Tories. And already we see Mr Cameron preparing for a Tory minority government by rubbishing the idea that Labour should work with the SNP to form a majority government in Westminster. So it’s quite clear that when the Tories win more seats than Labour they plan to stay in office by making it impossible for Labour to do a deal with “the Left” (SNP, SDLP, PC, Grn).
    The LibDems will sit quietly by licking their wounds and electing a new leader while Mr Cameron carries on in office (as he’s entitled to do constitutionally) – backed by 10 DUP & 4 UKIP MPs.

  6. SWEBB

    It’s certainly an interesting concept that “the Left” parties would decide that they couldn’t do a deal because that nice Mr Cameron had rubbished the idea.

  7. Oldnat

    Mr Cameron’s friends in the media will make sure that such an arrangement would be viewed as totally unacceptable by English voters.

  8. Cameron is entitled to carry on in that scenario.

    His problem is that the other parties would also be entitled to table a motion of no confidence in his Government.

  9. @OldNat FPT

    Will be one of the more interesting events if the campaign seeing David Coburn’s nomination papers for Gordon.

    He gave an address in Kensington for the Euros but then claimed he had been living in Edinburgh for “several months”.

    Then he admitted to Channel 4 News that he hadn’t voted in the referendum as he wasn’t registered to vote in Scotland.

    Know anyone with a flat to rent in Inverurie? Get in touch with DC today ;-)

  10. @SWEBB

    Pretty clear precedent in 1892. Tory government won most seats in the election but did not have an overall majority. Liberals and Irish nationalists (the IPP) had a majority between them. PM Salisbury tried to stay in office. Liberals called a motion of no confidence, government was defeated and replaced by a Liberal government with IPP support.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1892_vote_of_no_confidence_against_the_government_of_the_Marquess_of_Salisbury

  11. Northumbrianscot

    Coburn has fled to stand in Falkirk.

    The UKIP candidate in Gordon is a young lady who was tongue-tied when interviewed – even after her minder told her “Words – Use your words”.

  12. Is SWEBB our old friend PRESSMAN?

  13. James

    While technically true, the Tories would have a field day if Labour combined with the Scots, Welsh & NI nationalists to vote down a Conservative government that won more seats than Labour in England.
    Besides, with DUP & UKIP support (and LDs abstaining) it is quite possible Cameron could outvote Lab + the Celtic fringe nationalists.
    The Tories are already preparing the script – about the SNP holding the UK to ransom and “spineless unprincipled” Labour getting into bed with a party that wants to smash the union.

  14. It would be a curious for an avowedly “unionist” party to argue that duly elected MPs for constituencies in the union should not have an equal say in the governance of the country.

  15. 1) Interesting note about 1892 – but I think Miliband will have performed so poorly that he’ll probably have to go or stumble on wounded – no hope of being able to convince English voters to back a Lab/SNP government (which would also need LDs anyway) – plus look how things turned out in Ireland not long after 1892 – a lesson from history?

    2) I believe I’ve been on this site much longer than Pressman

    3) I’m a Labour supporter who voted for Ed M to be leader – and would very much welcome a Lab / Left government.

  16. James

    Totally agree but that’s exactly what they’re doing – see Cameron’s speech in Scotland.

  17. @SWebb

    There has to be a Motion of the Confidence of the House within 14 days of the election.

    I can see David Cameron wanting to hang on as PM.
    I can see a deal with DUP on flegs/cash.
    I can see UKIP supporting him provisionally on condition a Brexit referendum is called ASAP.
    I can see demoralised Lib Dems abstaining.
    I can even see Clegg deciding to stick to the devil he knows and signing up for more coalition.

    However it seems extremely unlikely that any of Labour, Green, SNP, PC, SDLP and probably Sylvia Hermon would fail to vote against him in a confidence motion.

    Winning most seats isn’t enough for him to hang on.

    At the very least he needs more potential votes in a confidence motion than there are MPs from those 5 parties.

    Otherwise whatever he says in speeches or the press says about the savages from the barren northlands he won’t be staying on as PM.

  18. Lab still has a very small lead – probably of around 1%. A poll showing a Tory lead is just a case of MOE.

    Key question is what effect the next major political event i.e. the budget will have on the polls.

    All finely poised.

  19. @OldNat

    Interesting. Falkirk must be closer to his “Flat in Edinburgh”…

  20. Northumbrianscot

    I can only hope you’re right – but even if you are that surely only leads to a second election – in which Cameron can say – give me a majority so I can save the UK, deliver an EU referendum and put Mr Miliband out of his misery?

  21. Sorry for repeating a question – but who keeps lost deposits? Local government?

  22. So if Cameron hangs on to lead a minority Government or with help, either way he is PM and his MPs dominate the Cabinet. As things stand he would be doing so on about 35% x turnout of 70% = 25% of those registered to vote.

    We could also see the Greens get a similar absolute number of votes to the LDs nationally, yet they get 1 to 3 seats, the LDs get about 25 – 30.

    Surely first past the post is dead in the water ?

  23. @Swebb

    It leads to a second confidence motion on Ed Miliband’s attempt to form a government.

    He would presumably win one if Cameron had lost one.

    The only circumstance where the arithmetic wouldn’t work would be if one party (Lib Dems?) abstained in one confidence motion but voted against in the other.

    This isn’t likely to happen though. They’d be an exhausted rump of a party even less keen on another imminent election than anyone else.

    The point is there is no hiding place for any of the parties. There has to be a vote in the Commons. They will each have to decide which side they are backing.

    There are 2 parties who could join either coalition – Lib Dem and DUP. If the result is close they effectively get to choose.

    For SNP, PC and Green the choice is effectively vote for Labour or Abstain. Abstention here would be a dangerous tactic that they are unlikely to do.

    SDLP effectively take the Labour whip so will support Lab whatever the circumstances.

    Sylvia Hermon and Naomi Long (if re-elected which looks unlikely) are harder to call and could go either way but are probably more likely in the Labour column.

  24. Let’s say the seats are as follows:

    Con 292
    Lab 268
    LD 33
    SNP 31
    DUP/UUP 10
    UKIP 4
    SDLP 3
    PC 2
    Grn 1
    Ind 1

    Then Mr Cameron has 306 votes with DUP/UUP+UKIP.
    Lab with SNP+SDLP+PC+Grn = 305 votes

    Mr Cameron can scrape home – if LDs are still on board with him he’s comfortably ahead. And it remains to be seen that Lab would chose to vote against a Cameron led government in that situation as they would be accused of destabilising the UK by bringing down the government & conspiring with nationalists – that’s one of the reasons Brown didn’t do a deal with SNP/PC in 2010 when they could have formed a majority rainbow coalition. Lab might actually want to avoid a repeat election at that stage anyway.

  25. I suspect that the only person likely to use terminology such as “conspiring with nationalists” in this context would be – a nationalist.! :-)

  26. SWebb

    You appear to have forgotten the Sinn Fein seats in your calculations.

  27. Why is it acceptable for a Conservative + DUP government but not a Labour + SNP one?

    One side will have to votes in a confidence motion & if Labour + SNP + PC + Green + SDLP is greater than Cons + UKIP + DUP with Lib Dems on the sidelines then Ed will have no choice but to be PM & because of the FTPA soldier on for five years.

  28. swebb appears to think the conservatives will only be down 15 seats from there 2010 tally of 307 as oliver hardy once said in reference to stan laurel oh Gabriel blow your horn

  29. BRAMLEY
    You appear to have forgotten the Sinn Fein seats in your calculations.

    Yes, and possibly the only interesting bit of R4’s Any Questions this week was the refusal of the SF lady to confirm they will remain abstentionist.

  30. Graham

    (FPT)

    I meant that Cons led in the TNS crossbreak – and as AW has said TNS also has an apparent methodological problem which benefits Labour. OldNat and several others have also pointed out that Opinium’s recent methodology changes are likely to benefit Cons and as well as understating the level of SNP support clearly visible in Scotland-only polls.

    Along came YG with a Labour one ponter. Nothing much has changed.

    OldNat and other Scottish posters :

    Nicola Sturgeon made a very positive impression with me on Q Time. I could see her as DPM in a Lab-SNP Coalition. But could her own supporters accept that ?

  31. @SWEBB

    If Labour & Left have the seats but Labour does not vote against a Tory government in a confidence motion because they wouldn’t do a deal with the SNP, they would be finished in Scotland and very likely it would be the end of the union.

    If Scotland sends 30+ MPs to Westminster that would mean that the SNP have won the Scottish election with an outright majority of seats. If then the unionist parties conspire to keep the Scottish representatives from having any power, it would give lie to the Better Together’ ‘partnership of equals’ pitch. In those circumstances I think the SNP would be justified in putting a second referendum into their 2016 manifesto.

  32. The DUP have said they’ll consider supporting Labour; they’ve also said they no longer see themselves as ‘naturally’ allied with the Tories. And is it likely that the Shinners are going to come out of ‘self-imposed exile’ to support the Tories or abstain in a confidence vote?

  33. @ Couper 2802

    If Scotland sends 30+ MPs to Westminster…

    Scotland “sends” 59 MPs to Westminster.

  34. @OldNat

    “Sorry for repeating a question – but who keeps lost deposits? Local government?”

    The Lost Depositary Box in Switzerland.

  35. @Welsh Borderer

    I think SNP should avoid coalition mainly because of collective responsibility a C&S arrangement would suit better IMO. Another slight problem with Nicola being DPM is she won’t be an MP, she isn’t standing for Westminster.

    If I was in charge of the SNP the only thing that would tempt me into coalition would be getting put in charge of the constitution that is the department that will oversee the transfer of more powers to Scotland.

  36. @ Welsh Borderer

    Nicola Sturgeon made a very positive impression with me on Q Time. I could see her as DPM in a Lab-SNP Coalition. But could her own supporters accept that ?

    I think the DPM is usually an MP. Does anybody know of a past DPM who wasn’t an MP?

  37. @OldNat

    Her Majesty. See Part F – Returning Officer Guidance, part 2.10 (forfeited deposits).

  38. @ AmbivalentSupporter
    “Lab still has a very small lead – probably of around 1%. A poll showing a Tory lead is just a case of MOE. ”
    If Labour and Tory VIs are actually equal, or within 1% of each other, and the poll figures depended solely on MoE of random samples with party MoEs about +/-3%, then they ought to show leads of more than 1% for the parties in turn much more often than they do.
    That means that the leads shown are limited by poll companies’ weighting techniques. Let’s hope they have them right.

  39. Can’t really see the point of UKIP supporting DC just because they might get a “brexit referendum”, because Cons+UKIP = 296, Lab+LD+SNP = 332. He will be promising something he is highly unlikely to be able to deliver with the above electoral arithmetic. I can’t see any of that latter group abstaining or voting for such a referendum, and it will be difficult to justify trying to exclude the SNP from such a vote after so much effort was expended trying to keep Scotland in the Union, at least as far as EU membership is concerned.

  40. @ Couper 2802

    If I was in charge of the SNP the only thing that would tempt me into coalition would be getting put in charge of the constitution that is the department that will oversee the transfer of more powers to Scotland.

    I’m thinking Labour wouldn’t want to “tempt” the SNP into a coalition. C&S would be a much better option for Labour than a coalition.

  41. For Labour to form a government they have to:

    1. Have more seats than the Conservatives, so they can be asked by the Queen to form a government

    2. SNP probably have to have more seats than LD for LD to consider not continuiing in the coalition.

    But there is a wildcard in that LD have said they will not serve in a government that relies on UKIP for a majority, which I presume means C&S as well

    So the Conservatives have to be able to reach majority with LD and DUP, without UKIP.

    So LD have an out by which to switch to Labour even if the Conservatives have more seats than Labour because they do not wish to give UKIP governmental power.

    They have not said they would a oppose Labour if SNP gave Labour C&S.

    SNP, PC and Green have said they will not support a Conservative administration and Green have said they are prepared to give Labour C&S.

    Sinn Fein have moved if they have said they would consider not abstaining.

    Everyone is playing their cards close to their chest, but the Conservatives run the risk of alienating themselves in Scotland and Wales if they vociferously oppose SNP and Plaid not being allowed to offer C&S.

    Th Conservatives, especially if Labour has more seats than them, could end up in an election being accused of making the country ungovernable and destabilizing the democratic will.

  42. Sounds like the Queen gets a nice little slush fund every time there’s an election. She must love the Monster raving looney party by now.

  43. AMBER STAR
    And is it likely that the Shinners are going to come out of ‘self-imposed exile’ to support the Tories or abstain in a confidence vote?

    Clearly not, but the exile is not “self-imposed” but on conscience grounds because of the oath/affirmation of allegiance.

    I don’t defend their other behaviour but I could not declare allegiance to any monarchy. Could you?

  44. @Andy Shamrock

    forming a government has nothing to do with who has most seats. The sitting PM gets first go and if they can’t win a confidence vote then the leader of the (next) largest party is asked to try.

  45. ANDY SHADRACK
    Have more seats than the Conservatives, so they can be asked by the Queen to form a government

    If Con have most seats they get first go at trying to cobble together a majority in a confidence vote but if they fail then Lab get their turn to try. Brenda doesn’t have any meaningful options there.

  46. AMBER STAR
    I’m thinking Labour wouldn’t want to “tempt” the SNP into a coalition. C&S would be a much better option for Labour than a coalition.

    Of course, but a full constitutional convention [rather than just the proposed HoL one] might be a condition of the C&S.

  47. @Andy Shadrack
    ‘For Labour to form a government they have to:

    1. Have more seats than the Conservatives, so they can be asked by the Queen to form a government ‘

    That does not follow. After a general election the Queen does not invite anyone to form a government until the existing PM resigns. If the Tories remained the largest party but were defeated on the Queens Speech Cameron would resign and Milliband would be invited to form a government – doubtless with the support or acquiescence of the SNP, Plaid, SDLP, Green, Lady Hermon. There is no constitutional requirement that ONLY the leader of the largest party can form an administration – though,of course, it will normally be the case because the largest party in the past has usually had a majority in the House of Commons.

  48. ANDY SHADRACK
    Sinn Fein have moved if they have said they would consider not abstaining.

    That’s more than I said. Ms Michelle Gildernew refused to confirm that abstentionism would continue when questioned repeatedly by
    Dimbleby minor.

    Listen or download from http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b052mjzl and judge for yourself.

  49. @Alphonso (FPT – RE: Omission of policies)

    It might be the choices at the start of the process that decide what you do or don’t see, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt.

    @Swebb

    LD 33
    SNP 31

    Doubt it.

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