There are only two voting intention polls in the Sunday papers – the regular weekly Opinium and YouGov polls for the Observer and Sunday Times respectively.

The Opinium/Observer poll has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%. This is the first time that Opinium have shown a Conservative lead since back in 2012, just before the Omnishambles budget. As ever though, it’s just one poll – taking a broad average of the polls suggests that the actual position of public opinion is a very small Labour lead, so it’s inevitable that normal sample variation will spit out some Tory leads from time to time. Doesn’t mean much unless they start getting more frequent. Tables are here

The YouGov/Sunday Times poll has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%. The one point Labour lead is very much in line with YouGov’s average. The 13 percent figure for UKIP is equal to the party’s lowest from YouGov this year, but a lowest we’ve already seen a couple of times, so again, not necessarily anything new. Tables will be on the YouGov website tomorrow.

428 Responses to “Latest Opinium and YouGov polls”

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  1. @peter crawford

    Just for the sake of argument, what if Cameron offered the SNP total Devo Max, to the point of effective self-government, Barnett for a further 5 years and offered to re-locate Trident to Wales…

    The price? Confidence & Supply for 5 years..

    OK, I am just being silly really, it is very hard politically to visualise a Con/SNP deal of any kind. Though equally it may not automatically be to the SNP’s advantage to do a deal with anyone, including Labour. If I was NS I would be inclined to avoid becoming the Lib Dems Mark 2 and stick to issue-by-issue voting, avoiding both C&S and a formal coalition. The exception might be a ‘pan-centre-left’ coalition of Lab/LD/SNP/PC etc should there be enough on offer for them worth taking up.

  2. I guess the point PostageIncluded (and if we’re being charitable Andrew Rawnsley) are making is that SNP might not be devastated politically to see a weak Conservative / Lib Dem administration with UKIP support.

    I don’t think for a minute SNP would support tacitly or otherwise such an administration but if the numbers fell something like this that might not matter:

    Con 295
    Lib 20
    DUP 9

    Lab 269
    SNP 40
    PC 3
    Green 1
    SDLP 3

    UKIP 3
    Hermon 1
    Speaker 1

    Sinn Fein 5

    Then SNP would vote against a Con government but we might end up with one anyway, albeit a very weak one which had an extremely small mandate in Scotland.

    This sort of result might boost the demands for independence while not damaging the SNP.

    I suspect that actually the SNP would prefer to be in a position to deal with Labour and actually devolve more powers and prove what they can actually do with access to some levers of power in Westminster but a weak Tory/LibDem govt with 3 Scottish MPs might be good for them as well.

    To get a result like that though there will need to be significant swingback for the Tories in England.

    Even then the Lib Dems might prefer to work with Labour or even split with MPs backing different sides.

    The SNP’s main rivals in Scotland are the Labour Party…the best thing for the labour party in scotland is for the SNP to be seen to back the tories in westminster.

    It’s not as if we haven’t seen this movie before. The perception that the snp “let the tories in” may be false but it did real damage to the snp for years. you could still hear the “tartan tory” tag for the SNP in the 1990s and beyond.

  4. Grauniad reporting that the STV debate (ITV franchise doesn’t run in most of Scotland) is planned to be a leader debate on 7 April between actual party leaders – Sturgeon, Miliband, Cameron, Clegg.

  5. Tom Mludzinski [email protected]_ComRes
    Exciting news: new polling partnership for ComRes and Daily Mail, carrying on our telephone polling dating back to 2006

    There’s something appropriate about Comedy Results pairing up with the Mail but I can’t quite put my finger on it…..

  6. Accuracy of projection model databases

    Following the publication of the four Ashcroft constituency polls last week I posted a comment using these findings to assess the accuracy of the projections then being made by Electionforecast (EF), May2015 and by Electoral Calculus (EC). Using Euclidean Distance calculations as a measure of predictive accuracy I concluded that the May2015 projections for these four seats were very poor, and that EF was much more accurate than EF.

    Today, I checked again to see how well the new information has been incorporated into the model databases. Unexpectedly, May 2015 do not as yet seem to have modified their treatment of the polled seats. (Their current projections are just as inaccurate as they were last week.) Before long one would expect to see these seats moved to the ‘Ashcroft Seats’ columns where the recorded VIs should be closed to last week’s published figures. In due course, this model can be expected to become more ‘accurate’ in handling these seats.

    In line with past checks, the EF model has been updated to incorporate the new polling data. The mean Euclidean error reduced from 5.9 last week to 3.9 today for SVI and from 7.3 to 3.3 for CVI. In contrast – and again in line with past checks – the EC model has shown no improvement over this interval. In fact their Euclidean errors are slightly higher today: 13.0 compared with 12.9 last week for SVI and 12.2 compared with 12.0 for CVI.

    This quick analysis sharpens the picture that has emerged over the last few months. The EF model is more accurate than its competitors in predicting Ashcroft polls and is very quickly updated to incorporate the new information garnished by these polls. The EC model and May2015 are less accurate in predicting constituency polls, but May2015 is normally adjusted quite rapidly to take account of this information (and edit which hasn’t been completed so far). The EC model doesn’t seem to benefit directly from the widespread availability of constituency polling data.

  7. Not a great moment for main parties to find their elder statesmen looking like a couple of New Statesmen B’Stard’s. Not great % for either of big parties either in latests polling since at beginning of Feb it looked as if they were both edging up a little. It is hard to put a cigarette paper between last Autumn’s numbers and today’s.

    Still there will be terraces of partisan supporters chanting ‘victory’ on all sides. That brings to mind the great A sharp of Cavaradossi in Act II of Tosca. It seems a good opera to consider in the light of this election – a tragedy of false hopes and falser lies leading to the death of all three principals….


    “I do not believe that the SNP would prop up a Tory government in the UK. I believe this because I don’t think that by and large they’re bonkers (Allan Christie being an obvious exception there). It would be political suicide, and crass stupidity given we have a good recent example of how collaboration can affect a political part”

    I know I’m bonkers but I have never said that I wish to see the SNP prop up a Tory government or indeed a Labour one. Both scenario’s would be complete bonkers for the SNP because they would have to agree to some sort of austerity cuts which both the main UK parties want to introduce….

    However I did say the best outcome for the SNP would be for a Tory minority administration (in the event it was mathematically impossible for Labour SNP etc) to form an alternative arrangement because I believe Cameron would devolve a hell of a lot of power to Edinburgh if it meant less Scottish influence at Westminster. You lot get Devo almost Max and I get EVEL.

    That would not happen under a minority Labour.

  9. @RAF,

    Surely the point of weighting is that it’s rigid and scientific. Different pollsters will do it differently and to different criteria, but so long as their methodology is consistent then I don’t see a problem. The whole point of weighting is to make the result meaningful.

    If a pollster were to say “Hmm, the raw results give Labour a 6 point lead. Our weighting system would alter that to a draw. That seems like a really big adjustment, maybe we should just reduce the lead to 3 points instead, you know, so it doesn’t look like we’re trying to help the Tories” then I’d worry.

  10. The only reason any party would risk the opprobrium of supporting a Conservative minority government is that they believe it is necessary for the good governance of the United Kingdom.

    I’d submit that tactically speaking the SNP aren’t really interested in the good governance of the UK. A poorly functioning UK government simply strengthens their argument for independence.

  11. Ashcroft National Poll, 20-22 Feb: CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 8%.

  12. Latest Ashcroft poll (20 – 22 Feb):
    LAB – 36% (+5)
    CON – 32% (+2)
    UKIP – 11% (-5)
    GRN – 8% (-)
    LDEM – 7% (-2)

  13. Ashcroft (Eng and Sco)

    Con – 32% : 25%
    Lab – 38% : 19%
    LD – 6% : 10%
    SNP – *** : 43%
    UKIP – 13% : 1%
    Grn – 8% : 1%

    Scots sample only 51 so results best described as mince. :-)

  14. it’s as if ashcroft and populus have swapped round. the lib dems being down two points is concerning to lib dems surely….

    the good lord’s polls have been all over the shop this year, esp. regarding labour ‘s vi, where we have had both 28% and 36% only this year.

    The tory range is narrower, though

  15. Lets be perfectly even handed here.

    As with ICM showing a 6% Con boost, I see no logical reason to explain why Lab should have a 5% boost in this poll.

    Ashcroft’s numbers seem a little like Mrs A – a bit wild at times.

  16. Miliband’s quote about trade union officials shows just how difficult negotiations with the Labour Party over a possible coalition are going to be.

  17. A 4 point lab lead on Ashcroft gives me an LP member no satisfaction just as the next which could be 4% the other way would disappoint me?

    They too inconsistent to tell us much other than the long term trend I guess.

  18. Wolf
    “Miliband’s quote about trade union officials”

    What did he say ? Link ?

  19. On paper, this Ashcroft poll looks a bit barmy, doesn’t it? Labour soar by 5 and Tories up by 2. Ukip semi-meltdown; down 5.

    Yet the clear beneficiaries of the UKIP slide are….

    ….the Labour Party.

    I’m with Jim Jam on this. Large pinches of salt to be taken here, I think.

  20. Any theories as to why Ashcroft’s national poll is quite so erratic?

  21. I’d love to be able to credit the noble lord’s polls as his constituency polls are potentially so interesting.

    Unfortunately I have difficulty accepting that Labour’s VI has increased by 5% in a week when it’s hard to imagine a reason for it to have increased at all.

    Even allowing for a generous MOE there seems something wrong here. Does he use a different company (with a different methodology) every week or something?

  22. What I take from this and other recent polls is that, in spite of continuing good macro-economic news, there is no evidence for any effect on Con VI. I find this very surprising. It may yet come, but if so why not already?

  23. Not sure how UKIP lost a third of its support in a week either.

    We’re a contrary lot aren’t we?

    If YouGov shows a one point Labour lead we say it’s boring.

    If any pollster says anything else we dismiss it as wrong.

  24. Ashcrofts polls have always seemed quite volatile. He had this to say last time

    I think the main message is don’t look at one poll, look at the trend.

  25. New thread

    “I’m curious as to what it is that makes their antipathy towards one another so strong, ”

    Lebensraum, mein leibchen. Too many ferrets in the same trousers.

    Yes, he did. It was ye olde chuck in some reference to union funding gambit though. Union sponsorship is really employment and representation of your sponsoring uniion’s interests. ” In their pockets””, like.

  27. The polls with all their vagaries still suggest that overall Lab and Con are pretty much neck and neck with the Lib Dems still in the doldrums and UKIP struggling to come close to their success in the Euro elections last May.

    That’s not the same, of course, as saying that the SNP are plotting to put the Tories into power, which neither I nor the despicable Rawsley have said. I don’t really understand why this quite obvious idea is so difficult to grasp.

    Agreed, and I’m sorry if you thought I was shooting the messenger. That was certainly not my intention.

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