YouGov December Poll

YouGov’s December poll has the Conservative lead down marginally at 4 points, the full topline figures with changes from last month’s are CON 37%(nc), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 17%(+1). The changes from last month are insignificant in themselves, but over the longer term there seems to be a slight weakening in the Conservative lead in YouGov’s polls, down from the regular leads of around 7 points in the summer (this is in contrast to ICM, who are now reporting larger leads than they did earlier in the year).

On the “forced choice” question – asking all respondents to chose whether they would prefer a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Gordon Brown – Cameron’s lead is up to 13%. This is a somewhat artifical question of course, in real life people can and do vote for parties other than the main two, but provides a useful pointer as to which direction tactical voting might work in come the next general election. Amongst current Liberal Democrat voters 39% would chose a Cameron government while 31% would prefer a Brown government.

Despite Tony Blair’s interview with the police conducting the ‘loans for honours’ inquiry, the proportion of people thinking that Labour are “very sleazy and disreputable” has actually declined somewhat since it peaked after Lord Levy’s arrest in July 2006. Back then, with Lord Levy’s arrest all over the news, 69% of people thought that Labour were very sleazy and disreputable, now the figure has fallen to 58%. This is despite the fact that 64% of people thought that Labour probably did indicate in some way to potential donors that they might expect to get an honour in return.

YouGov also asked whether the government was right to halt the SFO’s investigation into British firms’ bribery in Saudi Arabia – 28% thought it was right to stop the investigation, 38% thought it was wrong to do so. 34% of people didn’t know.

MORI’s monthly poll for December is also up on their website, the topline voting intention figures are CON 37%(+2), LAB 36%(+3), LDEM 18%(-2).


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