Monday polls

It’s Monday, so we have the usual rush of polls – the daily YouGov, twice-weekly Populus, weekly Ashcroft and monthly ICM. I’ll update this post as they come in, and do a round up at the end of the day.

Populus have topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%. Tables are here.

ICM for the Guardian have figures of CON 36%(+6), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 10%(-1), UKIP 9%(-2), GRN 7%(-2). The six point jump for the Conservatives looks particularly sharp but usual caveats apply. While it tends to be the polls that show unusual results or big changes that get all the attention, they are actually the ones we should be most dubious about. If there has been a genuine surge in Conservative support, then we’ll see it across all the pollsters, and other polls so far this month have shown things pretty stable.

The weekly Ashcroft poll has topline figures of CON 30%(-4), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 16%(+2), GRN 8%(+2) (full details here). A one point Labour lead, and changes in the opposite direction to those in the ICM poll – I think we can be fairly confident that what we are seeing with these two is just random noise, the back and forth of normal sample error.

UPDATE: The last of today’s four polls, YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 32%, LD 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%. After a couple of three point leads at the tail end of last week, it’s back to neck-and-neck from YouGov. Putting all four polls together I think it’s pretty much business as usual. One neck-and-neck, one Tory lead, two Labour leads. There is nothing here that’s incompatible with the steady picture we’ve had for the last six weeks: an extremely close race between Labour and Conservative, with Labour holding onto a tiny lead.


552 Responses to “Monday polls”

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  1. LASZLO
    Damn! Of course!
    Piper was a reference the subterfuge to which he resorted to block the drains with the new potatoes, to deny access to the ablutions….the devils

  2. You’ll have to excuse me again but looking at the ICM poll, this weighting for turnout seems a bit age discriminatory.

    Someone who was between 14 and 17 at the last GE who says they intend to vote this time is weighted .5 if they say they will vote for sure this time, because they did not vote in 2010.

    Duh, anyone between 14 to 17 last time, is now between 18 to 21 this time and thus only eligible to vote for the first time in 2015.

  3. I seem to have lost a posting. Perhaps Anthony has captured it. It was quite harmless to

    JOHN PILGRIM

    “Spell check doesn’t like potato names”
    Actually it is Maris Piper, named I believe after Robin Maris the Cambridge Keynesian….”

    My cousin spelt his name Robin MaRRis with
    two Rs! The common potato has just one.

    He was an advocate for Britain’s adoption of the Euro and his views on the present Greek crisis would have been interesting.

  4. Spearmint

    Must have been Smithson who was the social media abuser that was being discussed on Scotland Tonight! :-)

  5. @Amber

    It was apparently in this book

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/108441/alex-salmond-part-downfall-alan-cochrane/

    Good book to read to understand the quality of political journalism today

    “Cochrane too is not afraid of admitting the appearance of duff or misleading stories which happen to fit a desired editorial line. Writing about one “mischievous” story which might immently turn out to be untrue due to a story on TV, Cochrane’s response (happily published in his own book) is one of “who cares? Telegraph [his newspaper] readers don’t watch rubbish on STV!”.”

    “Nor, despite his strictures about the misdeeds of colleagues exposed by the Leveson Inquiry, is he averse to admitting he lives in circles where breaking rules is considered unexceptional, as when he says “it’s a pity we can’t fiddle an opinion poll nowadays”

    “He even drops an article at Alistair Darling’s request not in return for a better story (a standard deal, unsavory but at least one which at leaves gives readers a better story in the end) but simply because it could harm the electoral outcome Cochrane personally prefers.”

  6. @ Andy Shadrack,

    If they were really committed to voting they would have got themselves a false ID for 2010.

  7. Good evening all from East Renfrewshire

    Not much to say on tonight’s YG poll but I did think the Tories would sneak a wee lead.

    Anyway moving on…I wonder if the Anglican strop will have an impact on the VI later in the weeks to come?

  8. AMBER STAR
    @ Couper 2802

    “Which Story did Alistair Darling allegedly ask to have pulled from the Telegraph? I’ll be speaking with him later this week and I’d like to ask him whether the allegation is true”
    ________

    See you Wimin.

  9. @AC

    I can imagine @Amber saying:

    Please Darling tell me, I need to know. Is it really true?”

  10. @ Richard,

    it’s a pity we can’t fiddle an opinion poll nowadays

    Wow. What a charmer.

    Also… the paper has a circulation of ~500,000, among people who for the most part are probably going to vote Conservative anyway. That’s not no influence- it could be the Guardian– but if you start fiddling your polling figures isn’t there a serious risk of going all Unskewed Polls and ending up very surprised on election night?

    And think how stupid you’d feel if you published a poll claiming the Tories were streets ahead and all your readers felt they could safely switch their votes to Ukip.

  11. TARK
    Well said.
    Having been strongly involved in the EU TACIS and PHARE prgrammes which were intended to lay the path for post-Soviet accession of bankrupt E.European states, I believe the poor quality of the Commission’s administration and preparation of that and of structural fund support to the poorer southern European countries and to poorer and remote regions of member states is where reform is most needed.

  12. OLDNAT
    Spearmint
    Must have been Smithson who was the social media abuser that was being discussed on Scotland Tonight! :-)
    __________

    I watched part of that discussion and I’m sure there on my TV I was watching the past and the future of Scottish politics. What a contrast.

  13. @ RAF

    Strange though it may seem, he likes people to call him Alistair, rather than Darling. I can’t imagine why. ;-)

  14. Smithson didn’t say “Scots losers”. He said ” Scots losses” (referring to Labour’s likely losses to the SNP. Unfortunately he spelt losses “lossrs”.

  15. @ RAF

    Spearmint was making a joke about MS’s typo, I think.

  16. @ RAF,

    Hence the wry “tongue sticky-outy smiley” at the end of my post…

  17. I can imagine Amber giving Darling a telling on polling.

    “Shut up Darling, I’m talking…Now polldrums is a rather clever word…”

  18. @Amber
    Yes, I know. But for a second I thought he’d actually said that!

  19. TONY CORNWALL
    Thanks. I stand corrected. I discussed research on Kenyan post-Independence agrarian development policy – as you will gather, way back.

  20. @AC

    I think your comment went too far.

  21. # with him…

  22. @Spearmint

    Unfortunately, your nuance was lost on me. I promise to read your comments properly next time.

  23. Alan Cochrane probably had the story dropped because he, himself, didn’t like it. I’m still going to ask Alistair about it though.

  24. @Tark

    A fine post. I take a fairly binary view of the Greek situation. A fledgling government, democratically elected and with a clear mandate or a collection of mighty financial institutions (the Troika) determined to force more austerity down the throats of a people who can stomach and tolerate deprivation no more? I’m with the Greek people and their new Government, heart and soul. The vast pro-Government demonstrations on the streets of Athens are a potent display of the people’s support. Yes, PRO-government. Extraordinary and moving.

    Another slightly eccentric poll tonight. UKIP down 1, Labour up 2, Tories up 1. No Labour/Tory correlation, still, and no obvious beneficiary emerging from the odd UKIP blip. That said, what UKIP blip? They’ve just scored 16 and 15 in two consecutive YouGovs As for the ICM poll yesterday, it looks barmier as each subsequent new poll appears. So barmy that it borders on voodoo!

    Some little interesting political titbits today. The Bishops letter and Tim Montgomerie’s new website. We’re all Socialists now, it would appear!

    Oborne flouncing out of the Telegraph too, criticising their lack o coverage of the HSBC scandal Barclay brothers editorial influence? Free independent press and all that.

  25. @ RAF,

    I’m not sure they’re deserving of that much concentration! Sorry for accidentally misleading you, though.

  26. @Spearmint

    And think how stupid you’d feel if you published a poll claiming the Tories were streets ahead and all your readers felt they could safely switch their votes to Ukip.
    _________________________________________

    Well effectively that IS what they are doing when they put all the outlier polls showing Tories in the lead in all their headlines and ignore all the others.

    We had lots of posts the other night where people were surprised that people they spoke to all thought the Tories were well in the lead in the polls, and all the polls where people are asked to predict the outcome assume a clear Tory win. I blame the media!

    Perhaps Anthony should ask people who they think are ahead in the polls and for those who get it wrong, if that would change their vote, and if so how.

  27. A quick internet search reveals no consensus on the origins of the name Maris Piper, a spud which seems to have displaced the King Edward as the most popular UK variety — everyone agrees named after Edward VII.
    .
    On the allotment today — a prolonged dry spell here in Manchester has allowed the blissful enjoyment of pre-March digging — I was advised to use a solution of Jeyes Fluid to get rid of Couch Grass — it really is a scourge. Up here it’s pronounced to rhyme with slouch, tho in the South it rhymes with pooch? if the UKPR dog lobby will allow such irreverence.

  28. There has been rather a lot about the need for fiscal transfers to enable a common currency. The SNP were demanding (sic) a common currency but no one mentioned that this should involve fiscal transfers.
    If Scotland had become independent did anyone think it would be justified for a Scottish government to say” the oil price has gone down we need help”, or for a Scottish leader, lets call him A Salmond to say “I’ve held an election and the Scottish electorate are massively in favour of fiscal transfer from the UK to Scotland so you must recognise the mandate”?
    It occurred to me in an earlier discussion on devo-max and some international comparisons were mentioned that fiscal transfer issues should come in to it.
    For example, my old favourite of Switzerland cropped up with mention of the minimum viable size of a devolved unit. Inner and Outer Appenzell were mentioned. But I don’t think many contributers realised that devo-max exists in Switzerland precisely because fiscal transfers are negligible with all that infers. The Appenzels are much poorer than the Swiss average. So much poorer that freedom of movement in and out of the areas is very limited which means, for example, that property values are completely different. I went there some years ago and a Swiss friend told me that idyllic mountain chalets with farm are sold for tiny sums because only other Appenzeller peasants can bid. About 30 years ago I spoke to a teacher from Chaux de Fonds in the watchmaking region which had a disasterous time with the advent of digital watches and was only given a tiny bit of help from federal sources resulting in very low wages for both private and public employees in the area. I checked today and even now Chaux de Fonds has twice the Swiss average unemployment and four times or more what the most prosperous areas such as say Luzern.
    We are used to a very centralised state and take that as a norm.

  29. @ Laszlo

    Thank you. I thought AC’s comment went too far but then I wondered whether I was over-reacting. I appreciate having an ‘ally’. :-)

  30. LASZLO
    @AC
    I think your comment went too far
    __

    AMBER I apologies for my last comment. Although it was meant to be a joke but in the context of things it was probably inappropriate.

  31. And I’m sorry now for mentioning it; I didn’t realise I’d cause a fuss. Lots of Edinburgh Labour people speak to Alistair regularly, especially during campaigns.

  32. @ Allan

    Accepted; and Anthony might be good enough to take it out when he sees it.

  33. @Amber

    It’s my fault. I made a crass comment. Sorry about that.

    Has Labour selected a candidate for AD’s seat?

  34. AMBER

    :-)

  35. Oh and another thing..
    There is less chance of Switzerland adopting the Euro than hell freezing over. To any Swiss of my aquaintance the country is the army, the currency and an indissoluble union and nothing else. Everything else is your canton.

  36. @Amber Star

    It is in Alan Cochrane’s book I don’t think he specified the story-so ask Cochrane. However it has never been denied by Darling that he did this but Cochrane’s point was that journalism didn’t matter.

    The quote: ‘I should do what Darling asks, He is in charge. it’s not good journalism but what the hell does journalism matter this is much more important’

  37. @ RAF

    Yours was mild enough to be almost amusing. :-)

    Local councillor Rickie Henderson won the selection. I’d have liked one of the women candidates to win but Rickie is a really good candidate & deserved to win.

  38. @ Couper 2802

    Okay, so Cochrane doesn’t say what Alistair Darling actually said; nor does he say what the story was about. What do you expect Alistair to do? Give Cochrane a ton of free publicity for his book by getting into a public argument over nebulous drivel like that? Jeez.

  39. Tark

    Well said.

  40. Amber

    That seems to lack repricocity.

    Cochrane gave Alastair tons of free publicity. :-)

  41. @Amber Star

    You are missing the point ‘this is not about you ‘ Darling or the Labour party.

    It’s about the lack if journalism principles in the Telegraph and no doubt elsewhere. There are few journalists that can be trusted and most of the press is political propaganda. Thank goodness for social media and the internet.

  42. The Lib Dems are apparently keen on a deal with the SNP. They want to join their progressive left block of SNP, Plaid and Greens.

    So puts to bed the idea that SNP seats will rob Milbank of keys to Number 10 in fact as the Lib Dems seem to like the SNP, the SNP will make LibDem support for Labour + progressive left more likely.

  43. Just catching up but do I hear that the Tory Party At Prayer is being criticised by the Tory Party for being too left wing?

  44. Just watching the documentary on Westminster.

    What an incredibly archaic, ineptly run shambles of a Parliament.

  45. Re the Telegraph

    It has an article by Martin Baxter, the founder of Electoral Calculus.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11415768/Campaign-Calculus-SNP-surge-means-time-is-running-out-for-Ed-Miliband.html

    I thought it was likely to be outdated rot when I read Although it will be a multiparty election, we can distil it down to a single dimension of Con/Lab swing.

    Unfortunately, it gets progressively more ill-informed as it goes on.

  46. Couper

    If you are referring to Cable’s comments, “keen” may not be the right word., and “progressive” only in the sense of how they labelled themselves in 1960s Scottish local elections. :-)

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/vince-cable-lib-dems-would-enter-rainbow-coalition-with-labour-and-the-sn.118662887

  47. @Amber

    If you are still interested you can get the whole sorry story from google

    https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=Q-KdBQAAQBAJ&q=I+should+do+what+Darling+asks#v=snippet&q=I%20should%20do%20what%20Darling%20asks&f=false

    If you press on page you can see the whole context. Cochrane wants to write a story hammering Downing street about an interview Philip Hammond gave to the Herald on 15 April 2014. He asks for comment from someone called Dunlop, and gets a call from Darling asking him to drop the story. He decided to drop it, changes his mind, and sends the finished story to Darling. Darling again asks him to drop it and speak to Dunlop. He drops it, but sends it to someone called Mundell who assures him that his concerns have been taken on board and there will be changes to the campaign.

  48. @Old Nat

    I know but I like the idea that all the politicians that are left of centre coming together against Austerity, Trident and so on – that would include many in the UK Labour party including two of their losing leadership candidates.

    Of course this all depends on how rUK votes and I am not completely confident that the Cons will lose although at the moment the rainbow Left coalition that Cable seems happy with seems likely. Maybe a formal Lab\Lib coalition with C&S from SNP

  49. @Richaed

    Mundell is the only Conservative MP left in Scotland.

    Better Together in action.

  50. @OLDNAT et al

    Alas it is time for me to return to focus on my day job, but I have enjoyed reading all of your posts and making some of my own.

    I am an organizer for a candidate in the upcoming federal election in Kootenay-Columbia:

    http://www.elections.ca/res/cir/maps2/mapprov.asp?map=59015&lang=e

    Population 107,000
    Area 80,00 square kilometres
    Incorporated communties 14, largest 18,000

    Some of the most beautiful scenery ever created by nature.

    I have been involved in electoral politics ever since Winston Churchill signed me up as honorary constituency association member in 1963, but have never voted Conservative.

    I have voted Liberal once, NDP (Labour), spoilt my ballot (I always vote) and since 1993 Green. I have run four times as a Green, twice federally and twice provincially, and six times as independant for local goverment.

    In 2005 I won by fifteen votes and was re-elected for my third term with 63% of the vote, retiring in December 2014 after mentoring a thirty plus single parent woman to replace me.

    Politics is my passion and I have enjoyed your sometimes insightful coments and robust converstaions, and have a soft spot in my heart for the country I was born in.

    As an English Celt I despair at what the English have done to the planet and all things that live upon it. Returning to the UK in 2012 I was taken aback to see nearly 50% of the stores in Tewkesbury high street up for sale or lease.

    The rise of UKIP is an anthema to everything that I believe in, but as Marx so aptly pointed out in the Eigtheenth Brumaire, when economies fail reaction sets in.

    Apologies, I have said more than enough but I enjoyed the visit and hope that you all sort out the political direction my birth home takes.

    Nationalism, by the way, is just another form of political expression, but I have always feared it because I grew up in the aftermath of the shadow of National Socialism.

    Adieu-Bon Chance

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