The regular YouGov/Sun poll tonight has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7% – YouGov continue to show the two main parties extremely close, normally within a point of each other.

Earlier on today we also had a new poll of student voters by Youthsight here. Unlike the voodoo student poll that got some pickup last month, Youthsight polls do seem to be kosher – they are recruited through UCAS, validated by addresses and weighted by type of university, gender and year of study. Topline figures for voting intention amongst students are CON 23%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 2%, GRN 28% – so the Greens in a strong second place behind Labour. The poll also asked if students were actually registered to vote – 78% said they were (thought most said they were registered or would vote at home, rather than university), 22% said there were not or did not know.

157 Responses to “YouGov/Sun CON 32, LAB 33, LD 7, UKIP 15, GRN 7”

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  1. @Rosieandaisie:

    I agree with your last post above but not the one before.

    I don’t agree that “we are ALL perfectly able to connect to other polls.”

    Without naming names, not only are some contributors above completely overstating the importance of this one poll, bizarrely they have a tetchy “I told you so” tone as if it proves some partisan point.

  2. Absolutely, I think the distinction GuyMonde makes is a straightforward one. ISAs were set up by the UK government to encourage savings, it’s perfectly legitimate to use them.

    Transferring money abroad for a lower tax rate is clearly fiddling the system whether it’s legal or not.

  3. I used to ponder when will Conservative VI start rising as polling day looms.

    It’s getting later and later, and I am beginning to think that this uplift may not occur at all. The increase required for the Conservatives to get a significant lead looks harder and harder to achieve.

    Will people get a late uplift in personal incomes, and Dave will ride into Downing Street on this new found economic upturn. Doubtful.

    Will voters say ‘The PM is right, if we vote as we say we will now, Mr Miliband will win. I’ve just realised how much I don’t think he’s up to being PM!’. Ed’s strengths and especially weaknesses have be plastered far and wide for ages, and it just isn’t driving enough people away from Labour (from a Conservative point of view).

    If the Conservatives turn this around it will rightly be hailed as a stunning achievement.

    Lynton Crosby has the fight of his professional career ahead of him.

  4. ETIENNE & Guy Monde

    Sorry but you are both wrong, the situation as I put it is quite clear. Tax avoidence using HMRC approved schemes be they ISA’s or Trusts are perfectly legal, sensible and I’ll add moral just to reinforce my view.

  5. rolla 6

    Ta very much – I shall pass that on to the girls.

  6. JP

    ” not only are some contributors above completely overstating the importance of this one poll, bizarrely they have a tetchy “I told you so” tone as if it proves some partisan point.”

    The buggers.

    Oh… when I said ALL of us were “capable” I think that is true.

    It’s just that a few here, and elsewhere, are so against one party of another that don’t exercise those capabilities.

    The irritating corollary of that is that the same people also take any thoughtful analysis, suggesting that – for example, in my case – if I see no evidence that Cameron will be able to continue as PM then, by definition, I must be motivated by bias.

    I am not: it’s simply what the evidence tells is at the moment – all the rest is froth. If the evidence changes then so will my own view.

  7. @ Alec

    I tend to agree with you – Ed Balls needs to recognise that the world (and electorate) has changed. Doubtless the bashing that comes from the old New Labour guard, the CBI, the media and the less-than-desired-for opinion polls all play a part in his strategy but IMO he has made the wrong judgement call in tacking right.

    ‘We also should impose sanctions on tax havens who don’t comply with our requests for openess – just as we imposed sanctions on Iraq. Close them down, simple, straightforward, and no mucking about.’

    I totally agree stop mucking about and close them down, and given that the UK has a level of legal responsibility for a majority of the main players, the UK government has many levers at its disposal.

    I seem to remember a radio 4 programme with Peter Day, that suggested that 90% of global money transfers were just about shifting or manipulating to minimise or avoid tax obligations.

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