Two of our regular Monday polls are out:

  • The weekly Lord Ashcroft poll has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. Full tabs are here.
  • The twice weekly Populus poll has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 4%. Full tabs are here.

Later on tonight we have the regular daily YouGov poll for the Sun – I’ll update then.

UPDATE: The YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%. Three polls today, two with Conservative leads, one with a Labour lead. It looks as though were are still in a position of having the parties almost neck-and-neck with each other.


260 Responses to “Latest Populus and Ashcroft polls”

1 4 5 6
  1. @Oldnat (RE: Pointillism)

    https://twitter.com/StatgeekUK/status/565213080930775041

    A Saltire of red and yellow crosses above a sea of blue, showing how the Lion Rampant is still alive and well and roaring in Scotland.

    …or it could just be crossover. :))

  2. What a strange set of seats for the Tories to have given up on – judging by the Scottish ones.

    Lab held
    Central Ayrshire
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Dundee West
    East Lothian
    East Renfrewshire
    Inverclyde
    Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
    Paisley and Renfrewshire South
    Aberdeen North
    Aberdeen South
    Edinburgh South

    LD held
    Argyll and Bute
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Gordon
    North East Fife
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
    Edinburgh West

    SNP held
    Angus
    Perth and North Perthshire

    bit.ly/1zrUBQh

  3. Statgeek

    :-)

  4. Just noticed some of the people who attended the great ball last night.Prominent was Peter Stringfellow plus wife.We happened to be behind them in the Easy Jet Queue back from Greece last year.He was old and sad,
    the 40 years younger wife had a little baby.But whatever I suppose.

  5. I know I am talking about another country but in 1988 the Progressive Conservatives, Canada’s oldest party, took 63 of a possible 89 seats in Quebec with 52.7% of the vote, but in 1993 they took 1 seat out a possible 75 when they obtained only 13.5% support.

    Across Canada as a whole the PC’s took 169 seats and 42.9% of the vote in 1988, but were reduced to 16% support and just 2 seats in1993. While living in Canada since 1970 I have seen several parties support implode.

    FPTP is a ruthless electoral system as it is quite literally a seat by seat survival exercise, but once the polls/support goes below a certain figure the Party concerned just evaporates electorally.

    The LDs, in my humble opinion, are at the point of political evaporation in terms of keeping seats. At 4% or less in Scotland and similar results in the European election in Wales, holding any seat will be extremely difficult.

    Only the polls in England are now showing them above 6% in some regions some of the time. Consequently suggestions that LDs will hold between 16 to 27 seats seem ludicrous to me.

    In this election the LD vote is going to be targetted by everyone concerned as they scramble to find the votes to either stay alive, UKIP or Green, or to gain the edge over the other, Labour or Conservative.

    In the 2000 election the only reason the leader of the Progressive Conservatives held his seat was because campaign workers from the Liberal and NDP (Labour) parties folded their tents and went and worked for him instead.

    I simply ask this, is there a LD MP in the UK who is so popular that campaign workers from labour and Conservative would go and work for him to prevent SNP or UKIP from winning the seat.

    That is how bad it gets when you are trying to save the party’s furniture.

  6. A in W

    “But whatever I suppose.”

    You should be a philosopher Ann.

  7. Oldnat`s list @ 7.45 pm is unbelievable as far as West Aberdeenshire & Kinc is concerned.

    I live in the constituency and of all the parties the Tories are making the most noise, with most supporting letters in our local newspapers and most leaflets through the door.

    In contrast the SNP seem dead, with just one leaflet since their big effort before the referendum. Only our SNP MSP has made any attempt at arguing against the devo proposals in the local press

  8. @Jamie,

    Fairy Snuff, but it is just possible you can’t have your fundamental rights and get the super-rich to pay their taxes. Sometimes there are choices to be made…

  9. David Welch

    Not “my” list!

    Internal Tory document (presumably from London HQ) that Channel 4 got hold of.

  10. not 12.

    It’s worth noting that Lord Ashcroft’s by-election polls have been broadly in line with other pollsters, and the eventual But his weekly national opinion poll has seen very wide swings, particularly in the Labour vote share.

    And, in fact, there is no such thing as “The Ashcroft Poll”. Lord Ashcroft is not a pollster. He buys in polling from other companies, and then publishes the results. He says he uses several companies, but declines to name which ones. They are, he says, all members of the British Polling Council. But according to the New Statesman, his polls have now been dropped from Sky’s regular election poll of polls, because he personally is not a member.

    Quote; Daily Telegraph

1 4 5 6