Latest Scottish Polls

There was a new TNS System Three poll in the Sunday Herald yesterday. The constituency vote, with changes from TNS’s last monthly poll, breaks down as CON 11%(-1), LAB 35%(-3), LDEM 14%(nc), SNP 32%(+2), GRN 3%, SSP 4% (though the Greens do not put up candidates at the constituency level, so come the actual election these voters will obviously have to go elsewhere or not vote). Regional support stands at CON 11%(+2), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 15%(-2), SNP 30%(-3), GRN 5%(nc), SSP 4%(nc).

There doesn’t seem to be any consistent trend since the TNS poll last month – at the constituency level the figures are better for the SNP, at the regional level the figures are better for Labour. In both votes Labour and the SNP are very close to one another.

System Three continue to paint a somewhat better picture for Labour than to the other pollsters – at the constituency level System Three tend to put Labour around the mid-30s and the SNP nearer 30%; ICM and YouGov tend to do the opposite. In the regional vote System Three have put Labour at 30 or above in their last two polls, while ICM and YouGov have put them in the mid-to-high 20s. The difference between the polling companies is very likely down to ICM and YouGov using political weighting in their samples.

On a separate note, a fortnight ago The Herald reported a leaked internal Labour party poll by Populus that put the Labour party 8 points behind the SNP on both the constituency and the regional vote. No other details were given about when it was done, what adjustments were done to take account of turnout and so on. Populus are, of course, members of the BPC and, as such, I said a week or two ago that I would try and get them to disclose the full tables. The Labour party have stated that the figures were genuinely leaked without their approval and, since only the lead was disclosed and no actual figures were, Populus had decided that it probably doesn’t fall under the aegis of the disclosure rules.


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