ICM correction

The ICM poll published in the News of the World was actually their unadjusted figures. Once ICM’s spiral of silence adjustment is taken into account the correct figures are CON 39%, LAB 31%, LDEM 20%.

Now the full figures are up on the ICM website we can compare them to ICM/News of the World poll back in February, which asked many of the same questions about Gordon Brown and David Cameron. While there have been lots of surveys asking these sort of questions on which politician would be better at this or that, there haven’t been many with comparable questions like this.

Overall perceptions of David Cameron seem to have improved and perceptions of Gordon Brown have fallen, relative to one another. In February Brown recorded a 7 point lead as the more in touch of the two men, now Cameron leads by 10 points. In February Brown had a 11 point lead on trust, now Cameron has a 5 point lead. In February Cameron had a 5 point lead on the man most likely to stop and help, he now has an 11 point lead. In February Brown had a 1 point lead as the man most likely to have a good idea, now Cameron leads by 12 points.

The ironic thing is that, despite this, Brown led Cameron in the Best Prime Minister question.

UPDATE: Looking more closely at the two polls, it looks as though Cameron may not have had a big boost after all. These questions were conducted as part of a voting intention poll, and were therefore weighted by past vote. The figures from February were not, and it doesn’t look as if they were weighted by past vote. At least part of the difference between the figures is therefore probably just down to the different weighting.


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