The Times tomorrow has a new YouGov poll of Scotland – full figures aren’t up yet (the tables will be on the YouGov website tomorrow as usual), but the Times front page has the topline Westminster voting intentions of LAB 27% (no change since YouGov’s last Scottish poll in December) and SNP 48%(up one since December). As with the Survation and Ipsos MORI polls last month there is no obvious sign of the post-referendum surge in SNP support falling away at all.

I’ll update tomorrow with the full voting intention figures and tables.

UPDATE: Full figures are CON 15%, LAB 27%, LDEM 4%, SNP 48%, UKIP 4%. Tabs are here.

310 Responses to “YouGov/Times Scottish poll has SNP 21 points ahead”

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  1. Paul 340-49 is wrong of course but I am sure you just messing?

    15×15 = 225 + 64 (16×4) would be my method for awkward squares.

    Your analysis ONLY works if Lab + SNP + PC + Greens + SDLP were prepared to bring down a Con+Others Govt in a confidence vote.
    Now, I’ve been rather busy these last few weeks, so I may have missed a form pledge from the SNP to do just that in those circumstances.

    I am not an SNP member but have seen the FM say that the SNP would not support a Westminster Con led government.

    She could keep that commitment by abstention, of course. But having also said on live TV that she would prefer a Lab government I find it hard to believe her MPs would ever abstain in a confidence vote. I have not seen it written by a reliable source, however.

    Supporting Lab or not on anything else would clearly require some quid pro quo.

  3. R&D
    I know this site is barren territory for pedants, but may I point out that if you have to do a calculation then you do not know your times tables, as the whole point is that tables are memorised. :-)

    On a subject that relates to the polls, can anyone explain why the ‘bedroom tax’ seems to be such a vote-loser for the Cons? It seems to me that for every family who are allowed to keep a house with a spare bedroom, there is another who are living in overcrowded conditions. We have the bizzarre spectacle of Lab championing the slightly better-off against those who are poorer!
    I’m not a supporter of either of those parties, I’m just curious as to how this ‘narrative’ happened. Is it just clever campaigning by Lab versus unenthusiastic suppport by Con?

  4. New thread.

  5. PETE B

    The reason the bedroom tax is so unpopular is that there are not enough smaller properties, & as a result elderly & the disabled etc end up having to either pay more or be homeless.

  6. While we are correcting arithmetical errors (in my case changing the range but not the divisor duh)

    Mean of last 20 YG Scottish crossbreaks SNP 42% : Lab 27% : Con 18% : LD 5% : UKIP 5% : Grn 3%

  7. A NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO McJock thread the noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

    [At last……………….]

  8. @ Pete B,

    The trouble is that the policy wasn’t well thought-through.

    There aren’t enough one-bedroom flats for people to move into, so a lot of the Bedroom Taxed are essentially being fined for a situation that’s not their fault and is impossible for them to change. In some areas there are so many larger homes that the council can’t fill them (because tenants would be penalised for taking housing with a spare bedroom), so the taxpayer winds up the paying higher private rental rates to move people into smaller flats in the private sector and then losing revenue on the council housing that’s standing empty.

    Plus, a lot of the people affected are disabled, so you end up in the absurd position of forcing people to move from adapted homes to new homes where the disability adaptations will have to be installed again at public expense. This is self-evidently daft, expensive and inefficient.

    Calling a “tax” helped, probably, but the fundamental problem is that the policy is poorly designed even if you agree with the principle of it.

  9. I agree about the bedroom tax – fair enough to fine people IF they can move into a smaller house but if there are no smaller houses to move into what are they to do?

    It just seems a vicious, poorly thought out idea…

  10. Ashcroft’s methodology ;shoveling all the don’t knows on to how he presumes they voted last time doesn’t seem to me to be an attempt at accuracy.

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