Monday’s Populus poll has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% (tabs here). Populus have made two changes to their methodology for this poll, detailled here. The first is to start including UKIP in the main prompt for their voting intention questions, something which the majority of pollsters are now doing and which Populus says makes little difference to their results. The second is to adjust their party ID weighting targets, increasing the target weights for those who say they identify with UKIP, the SNP and the Greens and decreasing the proportion of the sample who say they do not identify with any party. I’ve previously commented on how Populus’s weighting scheme seems to be responsible for the comparative low level of Green support they report, this change will likely increase Populus’s reported Green and UKIP support a little.

The weekly poll from Lord Ashcroft meanwhile has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 9%. Tabs are here. Note that the long awaited Scottish constituency polls from Lord Ashcroft are due to come out on Wednesday morning.

Today’s daily YouGov poll is still to come, and should be out around 10.30ish as usual.

UPDATE: The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. After a couple of Conservative leads at the start of last week we’ve now had polls over the last few days that are mainly small Labour leads. It looks suspiciously as if nothing has changed at all over the first month of 2015, and we are still in the same pattern of the polls showing the parties pretty much neck-and-neck, with Labour a smidgen ahead.


79 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft and Populus polls”

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  1. “Scottish constituency polls”

    Wash your mouth out, Anthony! There’s no Saltire on the header.

  2. The only significant difference between these two latest polls is the Greens polling well at Labour’s expense in Ashcroft’s poll. No sign of any Tory surge. Osborne’s budget may well be their last stand.

  3. Lord Ashcroft tweet

    “On a uniform swing that should give the SNP …..ah hold on though….is that an appropriate measure…well it’s a guide so that therefore s”

  4. Surprised that nobody has commented on the TNS BMRB poll mentioned in the last thread which to the uninitiated looks sensational (including no mention from AW).

    Lab in an ELEVEN point lead?!?!

    Or is the view here simply that TNS are complete rubbish? Or have I completely missed something?

    @ Pups
    Thanks for the tip about Spiral. Hadn’t seen it previously but now challenging Inspector Montalbano in my top cops hot hundred.

  5. Guymonde

    A number of us mentioned the TNS poll on the last thread. Mostly in derogatory terms.

  6. @GuyMonde

    The Daily Mail are leading tomorrow with the TNS poll ;)

    TNS polls have been wrong for some time. This may have something to do with their severe downweighting of SNP and Ukippers in particular. Someone discussed this on the previous thread.

  7. @Guy

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9103

    (See TNS, then take into account the poll’s MoE)

  8. @ Mikey

    “Osborne’s budget may well be their last stand.”

    Ah but which last stand is the interesting question. I’m going for Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid myself: comes out all guns blazing and is quickly mown down by opposing fire.

  9. I was trying to find the tables for the Ascroft poll and came across this.

    “Mr Miliband? The hapless but by no means unlikeable Deputy Dawg, or possibly Elmer Fudd, in perennial but fruitless pursuit of the Prime Ministerial wabbit”
    ____

    Crickey who pulled the wabbit oot the hat?

  10. @ Statgeek,

    So, only a five point Labour lead, then. :)

    Seriously though, I think we have to accept that a pollster whose results fluctuate between level-pegging and an eleven point lead from one week to the next is having some difficulties.

  11. What budget is this, anyway? My understanding was the Government weren’t passing one this year because the Lib Dems wouldn’t agree to it- and certainly the Lib Dems, defending against the Tories in most of their constituencies, have no incentive either in practice or in principle to allow Osborne to pass a giveaway budget.

    So who is voting this thing through and in what parliamentary time is it being debated?

  12. @ Anarchists Unite….George Osborne is no Robert Redford that’s for sure!

  13. I thought a budget was due on March 19th? Am I wrong on this?

  14. guy

    Good – only prob is that, ideally, it is best to have seen all the previous series to really understand the back-story of the characters – and those who have gone also – and why they act and interact as they do.

    Still works as a stand alone though.

    On polls, me and Battso said keep an eye on Tory VI. At the moment it is as static as something that is not moving even a teeny weeny weeny tiny teeny weeny eversolittle bit.

    Stilll, swingback and crossover yet to occur I spose.

  15. Talking about government’s not passing budgets. How did John Majors government pass a budget in 1997 just before the election when it was by then a minority government( How was there no motions of no confidence anyway at that point. Did the UUP help keep it still going)

  16. @ Pups,

    On polls, me and Battso said keep an eye on Tory VI. At the moment it is as static as something that is not moving even a teeny weeny weeny tiny teeny weeny eversolittle bit.

    They’re up a bit this week, actually. Both the big two are, probably because Ukip and the Greens are falling slightly.

    Only time will tell whether it’s signal or noise, but there is movement.

  17. AC -apparently call me dave is dick dastardly and that makes georgie muttley -I can see the resemblance.

    Farage as cruella deville ?

  18. Well, Brown had his own budget in July 1997.

  19. The budget is on 18th March.

  20. Good Evening All. Very cold here.

    In March 1970 I think Roy Jenkins helped Labour to lose the GE for Labour by refusing Harold Wilson’s request for a nice budget.

  21. missis minty

    I was just referring to the two 31s today.

    There are always OPs to suit all tastes.

    By the way, can you do your 11 times table?

  22. @ Pups,

    Up through 11.

    11×12 is a tricky one though.

  23. 07052015
    AC -apparently call me dave is dick dastardly and that makes georgie muttley -I can see the resemblance.

    ______

    Aye quite a pair the both of them.

  24. OLDNAT
    “Scottish constituency polls”
    Wash your mouth out, Anthony! There’s no Saltire on the header
    ________

    Now now OLDNAT with all the Scottish polling coming on Wednesday I’m expecting UKPR to be dressed in tartan.

  25. missis minty

    Have you ever thought of applying to be prime minister?

  26. My son has known the 11 x sandwich since he was about 6 or 7.

    Make aritmatic fun or catchy and young kids will learn.

  27. jj

    What’s “aritmatic” and why is it fun?

  28. OLDNAT

    Long overdue :-)

  29. Like arithmatic Paul only less dry.

    Polling forms like Polulus use aritmatic when deciding what weightings to use I believe!

  30. The Screaming Eagle (PB) tweet

    “New YouGov/Times poll on Scotland has SNP 48%, Lab 27%, no other figures yet.”

    Not another North British poll! When do we hear about what Berkshire thinks?

  31. Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 4s 4 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by two: CON 33, LAB 35, LD 7, UKIP 14, GRN

  32. Night All; Lib Dem figure too high, I think.

    SNP still set for landslide if polls are to be believed.

  33. Ooops missed out the Greens…6%

  34. swingback starting quite soon now.

  35. further evidence of a modest swingback to the big 2 (UK).

    Ouch I can feel the squeeze from here.

  36. Tonight’s YouGov Westminster VI poll, CON 33, LAB 35, LD 7, UKIP 14, GRN 6

    (Cos Allan didn’t copy the Green %)

    Boring old 5% left over.

  37. hah – so there are signs of swingback then – but its going to both labour and tories.

  38. “chrislane1945

    Night All; Lib Dem figure too high, I think.”

    Always leave yer audience chortling and asking for more when it’s bedtime ay?

  39. Scotland aside, some reassurance for lab in this latest series of polls. Two 35’s from YG is unusual, surely?

    Intriguing Tory policy delivery today on the education announcement.It was heavily trailed as Cameron protecting the schools budget, but the announcement was actually of shrinking pupil budgets, dressed up as something positive. It was completely demolished by a simple question from that well known Tory sympathizer, Nick R of the BBC.

    I’m rather scratching my head trying to work out what the point of the play was. The supposedly headline announcement hasn’t made the online versions of the DT or DM, it got a pretty poor show on the BBC news, and the Guardian has interpreted it as a ’10 cut in schools budgets’.
    For a positive announcement, it looks to me like the media presentation has misfired.

    I suspect that this election is going to be typified by this kind of political acrobatics, as there is so little to deal with. I am a bit surprised by today’s big play though, as I was expecting something substantial, given the preliminaries.

  40. Stop being pedantic OLDNAT ;-)

    The Screeching Eagle tweet looks rather interesting.

  41. First visible bit of the Times/YG poll of the far North looks interesting – for those who like that kind of thing.

    Apparently some female leader has a +42 approval rating, while her male rival is at -10.

    Obvious nonsense.

  42. Regarding detectives.
    We have just watched young Moltanbano,which is splendid apart from the fact
    that he seems to be about a foot taller than his older self.I have also discovered a very interesting detective whose field of operations is Brighton,
    latest book is called Want you dead.Unputdownable if you like detective
    thrillers .As for the polls,labour seems to be steadying a little.I thought that last
    week we might have seen crossover,but now not so sure.

  43. Ann,

    My unprofessional view is that we we will see improving polls for one of the big 2 followed by a reaction the week after as the squeeze ‘question’ has more impact.

    A bad headline or policy shambles for one of them might see a short fall in VI for a few days but those ABT/ABLab tendancies will see a recovery a week or so later, a fortnight at most.

    Can only work to a point of course but I am confident of my 35%+ for bothTory and Lab.

  44. “It looks suspiciously as if nothing has changed at all over the first month of 2015”

    But in the second month of 2015 it may have, because the two polls published in Feb both have the highest Lab share of the year. No-one has yet mentioned the o word.

  45. Looking at YG in isolation, I’m not so sure AW is correct in suggesting there has been no real change in January. Lab seems to have been on a rising path for most of the month, by the look of it.

  46. OldNat

    The Scottish cross break is 48-27.

  47. @Phil – I know we get a bit overexcited on here, but what’s orgasm got to do with polls?

  48. @OldNat

    Ah I just looked upthread.

  49. Phil

    I am still quietly confident in my prediction that the ABT majority will re-group accordingly over the next three months.

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