Monday’s Populus poll has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% (tabs here). Populus have made two changes to their methodology for this poll, detailled here. The first is to start including UKIP in the main prompt for their voting intention questions, something which the majority of pollsters are now doing and which Populus says makes little difference to their results. The second is to adjust their party ID weighting targets, increasing the target weights for those who say they identify with UKIP, the SNP and the Greens and decreasing the proportion of the sample who say they do not identify with any party. I’ve previously commented on how Populus’s weighting scheme seems to be responsible for the comparative low level of Green support they report, this change will likely increase Populus’s reported Green and UKIP support a little.

The weekly poll from Lord Ashcroft meanwhile has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 9%. Tabs are here. Note that the long awaited Scottish constituency polls from Lord Ashcroft are due to come out on Wednesday morning.

Today’s daily YouGov poll is still to come, and should be out around 10.30ish as usual.

UPDATE: The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. After a couple of Conservative leads at the start of last week we’ve now had polls over the last few days that are mainly small Labour leads. It looks suspiciously as if nothing has changed at all over the first month of 2015, and we are still in the same pattern of the polls showing the parties pretty much neck-and-neck, with Labour a smidgen ahead.


79 Responses to “Latest Ashcroft and Populus polls”

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  1. The small two parties are being squeezed a bit, being under funded will also be a disadvantage with a wee little election due soon.

  2. Guymonde

    Surprised that nobody has commented on the TNS BMRB poll mentioned in the last thread which to the uninitiated looks sensational (including no mention from AW).

    Lab in an ELEVEN point lead?!?!

    Or is the view here simply that TNS are complete rubbish? Or have I completely missed something?

    The TNS poll is a real oddity. Unlike other recent stuff we’ve had from them, it’s a telephone poll. This which explains in part the very high number of DKs and refusals which are always higher with those – partly because the people who join online panels are by definition more likely to have an opinion about everything. I also suspect those polled by telephone are more likely to say DK to try to finish the conversation or because they haven’t enough time to think; online you have as long as you want or can just stop if you get bored.

    So the VI figures are only based on a sample of 518 and of course the female part of the sample is smaller again[1]. To be fair the poll wasn’t really done to produce a VI result and despite the press release being headed “Latest polling from TNS on UK voter intention”:

    http://tns-bmrb.co.uk/news/latest-polling-from-tns-uk-voter-intention

    it doesn’t actually tell you what it is and you have to go in the data sample for all adults and work the percentages out yourself, as OldNat did. For the record these are:

    Con 28%

    Lab 39%

    Lib Dem 4%

    UKIP 14%

    Green 8%

    SNP 6%

    PC *

    Other 1%

    It’s worth pointing out that TNS actually ask Still thinking about the next UK general election, which party, if any, will you vote for in your own constituency?, maybe (as there was a hint in the Survation poll) this helps Labour a little.

    TNS use a different and more generous LTV measure than most other pollsters, which may also have boosted Labour and the recalled voting pattern (post-weighting) looks very Labour-friendly as well among those who gave a voting intention: Con 37%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 5%, SNP 6%).

    [1] Only 232. As usual there are slightly more women in the original sample, but they are more likely to say they don’t know how they will vote. The same questions were asked of both men and women and analysed in the same way for the whole sample and for just the women in it.

  3. RAF

    That would be interesting, if the crossbreak figures were identical to the full poll. Though if that were the case, I’d suspect coincidence rather than brilliant polling :-)

  4. I remember Python’s Silly and Sensible parties: I am sure that many will regard the Tories as the latter – “you won’t like this medicine but it’s jolly good for” sort of thing – but less sure that it will do them any good.

  5. It is extraordinary how Labour can poll 35% in GB and yet be 21% behind in Scotland. If we take into account Ukip are probably costing them around 3% and the SNP about 2%, 35% is a good score.

  6. RAF

    Just saw your additional post.

  7. You people behave…. no Scottish comments till Wednesday.

    Peter.

  8. Labour’s 35% strategy seems to be working so far ;-)

  9. LDs looking a bit high at 4% on TNS.

    LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    [I am hoping some of CL 45’s magic rubs off on me – but it could be the way he tells ‘um I suppose.]

  10. Anthony Wells (fpt)

    […] can we go back to limiting Scottish discussion to Scottish threads. There should be a couple in the next couple of days.

    I presume from that, that we will be getting not just Ashcroft, but the rather delayed YouGov Scottish polling. Will it be weighted by referendum result as well this time or am I going to have to spend tomorrow annoying Nats with the revised figures again?

  11. @OldNat

    It’s one of those days. I didn’t realise MS’s tweet referred to a full Scotland poll. Still Labour close to 30% again. The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

  12. @Ann in Wales

    Peter James’ detective books are very enjoyable & even more so for those of us that live locally to him so have the added advantage of picturing the exact location he describes.

  13. So…what exciting electoral marginals can we chat about from England & Wales?

  14. statty

    There are some really tight ones in County Durham.

  15. @Statgeek

    We could talk Hampstead and Kilburn….again!

    There are quite a few in London.

  16. And tanks rumbling across Clegg’s lawn…

  17. This site is continually advertising the idea of an extra runway at Heathrow.

    I wonder why they think that I would be any help in their endeavours?

    I don’t even know anyone from Heathrow.

  18. R&D

    I think Statgeek was talking about constituencies. I don’t think we want any stereotyping of those in County Durham as being stingy with their cash

  19. Are YouGov the new Populus? It’s all very confusing. Populus come up with one of their lowest aggregate Labour and Tory scores (65%) on the same day that YouGov come up with one of their highest (68%). Then, just to stir and muddy the waters still further, Ashcroft pops up with 62%. What to believe, hey? Colin’s fog swirls ever thicker.

    If my Goveian arithmetic is correct, I think that’s six Labour leads and one tie out of the last seven polls and it would appear that the gentle drift to the Tories we saw developing last week has abated somewhat and Labour are stabilising. That’s mildly interesting because the Tories have swung some pretty big punches of late and the press have started to make much of Miliband’s weakness and alleged Labour splits. On Marr’s show on Sunday, the consensus was that Miliband had endured a dreadful few days but he doesn’t appear to have been punished for it thus far. The polls, rather heroically, continue to confound conventional wisdom.

    There appears to be a pattern emerging too, and one that first manifested itself some time ago. The Tories just can’t seem to get any sustained momentum going. Some progress and then it stalls. Labour come into sight, and then pull away again. Signs of a Tory rally, then it falters.

    I wonder if the first sign of a Tory surge generates an equal and opposite reaction amongst the ABT section of the electorate? I’m increasingly becoming attracted to this argument that the electorate have had it with this coalition but have no idea what or who to replace it with.

    If the polls are talking, in their garbled and confused way, I think that’s what they’re saying to us.

  20. RosieandDaisy,

    “There are some really tight ones in County Durham.”

    Ooooh Matron!!!

    Peter.

  21. BatMeister

    ” I’m increasingly becoming attracted to this argument that the electorate have had it with this coalition but have no idea what or who to replace it with.”

    Well, you just need to add “yet” to that and allow some time for the electorate to see the whites of the enemies’ eyes whilst at the same time quietly thinking:

    “Oh – I’ve just remembered what first past the post entails.”

  22. mr n

    “tanks on the lawn”

    That seems to be going a but far: isn’t it illegal anyway?

    For what is it a metaphor??

  23. @Peter Cairns (SNP)

    I thought the really tight ones were all in Scotland.

    Boom boom!

    (joke borrowed from Basil Brush’s compendium of japes. I got to know old Basil from my Hunt Saboteur days. Nice old fox, he was.)

  24. Daisie has been quiet all day with her times-tables.

    She has just wuffed that, with the 11 times table, you just have to remember that – up until nine times eleven – the second number is ferzackerley the same as the first.

    After that she gets a bit vague.

    Still – she’s oany TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO !!!!!!!

  25. The indy question was asked by YouGov – of course we have to wait for new thread to discuss but It’s 53 Yes 47 No

  26. New Scottish thread. Bugger!

  27. CB,

    I wonder if the first sign of a Tory surge generates an equal and opposite reaction amongst the ABT section of the electorate?

    Is not that what I said upthread but also that if the Lab have an uptick some of the ABLab section of he Electorate reacts?

  28. Perhaps more interestingly than the vagaries of opinion polls is that the betting statistics are slowly swinging to a Tory majority although a hung parliament is still the expected result, The reference to Ed Miliband’s bad few days seems a bit understated. His latest debacle over University Student fees surely rules him out as a credible Prime Minister and also shows how desparate Labour are to find a winning formula.

  29. ‘ It looks suspiciously as if nothing has changed at all ‘

    a bit like the ad nauseum articles written on ukpollingreport for the last 5 years,

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