Monday’s Populus poll has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% (tabs here). Populus have made two changes to their methodology for this poll, detailled here. The first is to start including UKIP in the main prompt for their voting intention questions, something which the majority of pollsters are now doing and which Populus says makes little difference to their results. The second is to adjust their party ID weighting targets, increasing the target weights for those who say they identify with UKIP, the SNP and the Greens and decreasing the proportion of the sample who say they do not identify with any party. I’ve previously commented on how Populus’s weighting scheme seems to be responsible for the comparative low level of Green support they report, this change will likely increase Populus’s reported Green and UKIP support a little.
The weekly poll from Lord Ashcroft meanwhile has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 9%. Tabs are here. Note that the long awaited Scottish constituency polls from Lord Ashcroft are due to come out on Wednesday morning.
Today’s daily YouGov poll is still to come, and should be out around 10.30ish as usual.
UPDATE: The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. After a couple of Conservative leads at the start of last week we’ve now had polls over the last few days that are mainly small Labour leads. It looks suspiciously as if nothing has changed at all over the first month of 2015, and we are still in the same pattern of the polls showing the parties pretty much neck-and-neck, with Labour a smidgen ahead.