Two polls in the Sunday papers – the fortnightly Opinium for the Observer and the weekly YouGov for the Sunday Times.

YouGov have topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%. It’s the first Labour lead YouGov have shown for a week. It’s probably just normal sample variation, but is a reminder that despite a week of polls that had more Conservative leads than Labour ones, the polls are still really neck-and-neck. Tabs here.

Opinium meanwhile have topline figures of CON 32%(+4), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 5%(-2), UKIP 18%(-2), GRN 6%(nc), the two main parties moving into the same tight lead we’re seeing across most polls. The five percent score for the Lib Dems is equals their lowest since the post-merger period around 1990. Tabs are here.


376 Responses to “Latest Opinium and YouGov polls”

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  1. Fraser

    The issue with claiming Labour will be hurt in England by agreements with Scottish parties is that ultimately those voting Labour are unlikely to be turned off by Labour getting something’s in return.

    Its one of these things the right especially jump up and down about but in the end I think it has little effect on VI, certainly not a negative one (could hit Labour in Scotland paradoxically).

    The danger to Labour is actually mainly an indirect one. The intention behind bigging up this ‘threat’ is to encourage UKIP voters to vote Conservative instead, to prevent this horrible attack by alien invaders who want to destroy all the poor, put-upon English hold dear.

    There is a danger is that it will also scare off potential Conservative supporters either because it is nonsense or because of the quasi-racist tone of it all. This is why it is mostly being conducted by the Press rather than the Tories themselves.

  2. COUPER2802

    I assume that is a poll of Scottish voters?

    If so why are national party leaders included , rather than the Scottish leaders ?

    Wouldn’t you expect the anti-Westminster attitude to heavily influence comparisons of the listed leaders with Sturgeon ?

  3. @Colin

    Sturgeon is leading a party that is part of the national parliament.

  4. colin

    It’s actually “Anti the Westminster-Elite”.

    Please use full titles.

  5. STATGEEk

    Yes-but I wasn’t talking about the consitutional niceties.

    I was asking about the validity of Scottish responses to a comparison of those particular people, given the attitudes to “Westminster” based politicians , which we are told , exist in Scotland

  6. The detailed Populus figures are:

    Con 31% (-3)

    Lab 34% (-1)

    Lib Dem 8% (-2)

    SNP 5% (+2)

    PC *% (-)

    UKIP 14% (-)

    Green 5% (+1)

    Other 1% (+1)

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_02-02-2015_BPC.pdf

    As OldNat has noted[1] there is still a considerable disconnect in the weightings. If you look at the ‘core’ vote weighting for which “political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with”:

    SNP 74 -> 65 (4% – 3%)

    Plaid Cymru 4 -> 2 (* – *)

    Green 98 -> 60 (5% – 3%)

    UKIP 255 -> 122 (13% – 6%)

    BNP 9 -> 7 (* – *)

    Another party 18 -> 9 (1% – *)

    None 237 -> 408 (12% – 20%)

    The downgrading of UKIP still looks fairly outrageous – though as being outraged is UKIP’s defenders main mode of operation, they ought to be happy. But without such weighting UKIP VI would be 20% – high by even Opinium standards. Populus clearly have the common problem with online samples of too many UKIP supporters compared to telephone polls.

    One thing that doesn’t seem to have changed is the way that Populus’s weighting distorts the recalled 2010 vote. Their adjusted figures still show too few Labour and too many Conservative voters, though the upgrading of the Lib Dem vote has been reduced a bit.

    [1] As he usually has been noting something even more extreme twice a week for months. I suspect Populus think of him as OldNag. Which is a good thing because it may have been one of the things that finally got them to ameliorate their ridiculous weighting system that kept on trying to pretend it was still 2010.

  7. @ Alec & @ Pete B

    Secondly, with possibly more direct impacts on VI, Gordon Brown is this morning unveiling ‘proposals’ for higher benefits and pensions in Scotland under a Labour UK government.

    This turns out to be a plan to grant powers for Scotland to top up pensions or create new benefits, rather than actual changes in payment levels.

    I’ve just come out of that meeting (which was also attended by lots of MSM reporters). Labour’s policy is to allow the Scottish Parliament to allocate more to social security by either:
    Prioritising their existing budget to allocate more money to social security & less to other things; &/or
    Using Holyrood’s powers to vary the tax rate(s) to pay for additional social security.

  8. CROSSBAT

    “Possibly, but don’t underestimate either the huge export market China now offers to Western economies. For example, JLR now sell more cars in China than they do in either the UK or the US, and the rapid expansion of that company has been largely due to the explosion of demand for their products in China. Roll in Mercedes, BMW and VW too, and you can see how the growing Chinese car market has helped to offset the shrinking mainland European markets for car manufacturers and component suppliers. Many other western industries are benefiting similarly”
    ____

    Can’t disagree with the above but what I meant by China’s soft power damaging the West was more to do with China’s competitiveness by investing billions in Africa and even Latin America and they don’t have as much red tape as we do in the West.

    Much of the Wests adventures in Africa and beyond is dictated by foreign policy and geopolitics where China on the other hand will deal with any government and aint too bothered about the geopolitical chessboard.

  9. @Colin

    No its a UK poll I am using the Scottish Crossbreak
    The UK results are

    Cameron 13%
    Miliband 11%
    Farage 10%
    Clegg 6%
    Sturgeon 6%
    Bennet 4%
    Woods (too small)

  10. As a proportion surely Sturgeon would be on 60%?

  11. OLDNAT

    You are right that it is different.

    Neither the Lib Dems nor the SNP have any realistic chance of being a majority at Westminster. However, the Lib Dems are supporting a government in a state that the bulk of their supporters believe should continue to exist in its current boundaries. The SNP would be supporting a government that the bulk of their supporters think should not exist in its current boundaries.

    Therefore, the potential problems for the SNP are even worse.

    Based on your past arguments, you would probably argue that the SNP supporters are 100% behind not pursuing independence right now, and they would all be happy with that. Well, call me a cynical Sassenach if you want, but I wouldn’t believe you.

  12. ASHY GOES 31% EACH

    FOR THE 2 GIANTS OF UK POLITICS

  13. Colin @ Couper

    It was a poll to understand UK voting intention -which is why the eejits only polled GB!

    Tables available here

    http://tns-bmrb.co.uk/news/latest-polling-from-tns-uk-voter-intention

    GB VI for those LTV (excl NV/DK/Ref)

    Lab 39% : Con 28% : UKIP 14% : Grn 8% : LD 4% : Oth 6%

    Wee Scots sample SNP 45% : Lab 25% : Con 13% : UKIP 13% : Grn 2% : LD 3% : Oth 0%

  14. COUPER 2802

    So Sturgeon trounces a load of Westminster politicians in a Scottish crossbreak , and comes second last to them across UK.

    Is either result at all informative ?

  15. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    The geo-political bit comes later on in the process. Give it another 10-20 years.

  16. Lurker

    I think Roger Mexico’s representation of me is more accurate than yours – and much funnier. :-)

  17. ole nat

    “Wee Scots sample SNP 45% : Lab 25% : Con 13% : UKIP 13% : Grn 2% : LD 3% : Oth 0%”

    Wottabowt the Big Scots?

  18. R&D

    :-)

    It was for Women’s Hour. Perhaps the thought of big Highlanders in kilts was considered to be too distracting.

    Modern women ain’t soppy like Violet Elizabeth Bott.

  19. Ashcroft National Poll: Con 31%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 8%, UKIP 15%, Green 9%

  20. Oldnat

    I wasn’t trying to be funny.

  21. Ashcroft National Poll (England):

    Con 34%, Lab 30%, UKIP 17%, Green 10%, Lib Dem 8%

  22. Lurker

    I know! :-)

  23. Seriously folks, let’s not do the “Could this be bad for party X?” comments. If people want that sort of thing, they can find plenty of it online and in the press.

  24. Bill Patrick

    Agreed

  25. @Colin

    Yes.

    Vote Labour for a Labour government at Westminster.

    In 2010 Gordon Brown was prime minister so it worked. But with Ed Miliband’s rating so low in various polls I don’t think Labour’s key message will work, hence the latest Gordon Brown secret weapon, Vow+ initiative. I use Nicola Sturgeon for comparison so we can’t just say ‘all politicians are disliked’

  26. I have a real phony war feeling right now, because I do think that the Tories lost the last election in the debates, and I expect something similar to happen due to the debates this time. Quite what that will be is unknowable, but at an overall Westminster level, it seems reasonable to expect voters’ reactions to Farage and Bennett to be crucial.

    Does anyone know what their approval ratings like as a % of those who have heard of them?

  27. But with Ed Miliband’s rating so low in various polls I don’t think Labour’s key message will work, hence the latest Gordon Brown secret weapon, Vow+ initiative. I use Nicola Sturgeon for comparison so we can’t just say ‘all politicians are disliked’

    clearly Miliband’s appeal in Scotland is so limited that Brown will be a key part of Labour’s campaign there.

    Miliband could single-handedly wreck labour. A world in which labour lose 20 seats to the SNP, were it to happen, would be one in which the Labour party will find it very difficult to gain a uk majority.

    If the right got its act together, we could have centre right governments for a long time, after a disastrous lab/snp govt.

  28. OLDNAT

    It is telling that in two posts you have not engaged with the argument I was making.

    :-) ;-)

  29. Am I reading the TNS poll correctly – 31% don’t know with only 3 months to go.

    Seems there is still a lot to play for or is it the usual problem of women not being able to make up their minds -:)

  30. Peter Bell

    Yes. plus 4% wouldn’t vote and 9% refused to answer.

    To give Candy her due, her observations on the TNS panel seem to have merit.

  31. the new ashcroft poll is out it is as follows-

    Con – 31%
    Lab – 31%
    Ukip – 15%
    Libdem – 8%
    Green- 9%

  32. On the referendum bounce for the SNP it is worthy of note that Parti Québécois who lost the referendum in 1980 (40.44% – 59.56%) went onto win the following 1981 election with 49.26% of the vote.

    Even around the 1995 indy ref the party still polled in the mid 40’s so some food for thought.

  33. “Seems there is still a lot to play for or is it the usual problem of women not being able to make up their minds -:)”

    # Everydaysexism.

  34. @Lurker

    Without wanting to speak for OldNat I think the point is that Yes voting SNP supporters can be simultaneously in favour of Scottish Independence, while not supporting an immediate change in boundaries of the UK.

    This being a polling site we can even look at what polls tell us on this subject:
    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/when-if-ever-do-you-think-there-should-be-another-referendum-on-scottish-indep-1#table

    Only around 13% of people believe their should be another referendum “Immediately” with a further 22% wanting one in the next 5 years or so.

    Depending on how we count the 26% “Never” the median date the public want another referendum is around 10 years away.

    I certainly don’t think there will be any electoral pushback for the SNP in not including a referendum pledge for either 2015 or 2016.

    I suspect there will be a very interesting debate within the SNP about whether a referendum question should be included in their 2020/2021 Holyrood manifesto.

  35. Latest Election Forecast prediction: Lab 285, Con 283, SNP 35, LD 24, DUP 8, UKIP 2

  36. Amber,

    “I’ve just come out of that meeting (which was also attended by lots of MSM reporters). Labour’s policy is to allow the Scottish Parliament to allocate more to social security by either:
    Prioritising their existing budget to allocate more money to social security & less to other things; &/or
    Using Holyrood’s powers to vary the tax rate(s) to pay for additional social security.”

    So basically nothing new at all, just hot air!

    Peter.

  37. Northumbrianscot

    I agree that it is possible to hold that position, but my point is that there is a potential split in the SNP after the election. 35% of SNP “Yes” voters would want another referendum before a 2020 election.

    It is the deviation from the mean that is the problem for the SNP.

    Of course, this is only a problem if the SNP hold the balance of power after May.

  38. Going back to the Rose report I was interested in his Scottish seat predictions (notwithstanding his confusion over the Greens).

    He predicts 3 seats held by Lib Dems, with no Conservative gains.

    I assume therefore his LD holds are Orkney & Shetland, Ross Skye & Lochaber and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk.

    He doesn’t seem to offer a particular rationale for his choice of 39 SNP seats and 16 LiS or specify which seats he thinks LiS will survive in.

  39. Northumbrianscot

    While not wishing to traduce the Professor’s reputation, it is always possible that a confidential report commissioned by an investment trust for its clients might be inadvertently biased towards what they would like to hear.

    After seeing your earlier comments, I read it again as I would any historical document, and such an interpretation would be plausible, if potentially wholly inaccurate.

  40. @Allan

    6.0% ought to be 69% in Scotland. The 8.7% of the UK (GB?) translates to 11.49% for every 1% nationally.

  41. AW – so I was called by populus on behalf of Ashcroft. I still cannot understand why I was only asked about Labour policies that would make me less likely to vote Labour.

  42. Lurker,

    “Therefore, the potential problems for the SNP are even worse.”

    Can’t see the logic of that.

    For those who vote SNP up until Independence, whenever that might be if at all, the choice is;

    To live under a government you don’t like that is in the view of most London centric to the detriment of Scotland

    Or

    To live under a government that you are part of and which counters that London outlook to Scotlands benefit.

    I can’t see many at all short of a few wod painted nutters on the fringe (a sort of Nigel MacFarrage) who wouldn’t prefer the latter.

    Peter.

  43. Peter Cairns

    The hardliners would probably wonder why there was no referendum in return. If they gave one, the “No” SNP voters would disappear. This is on top of anti-Labour tribalism.

    I don’t doubt that you and Oldnat would support a compromise, but please don’t pretend that it would not be a big problem for the SNP leadership.

  44. Chatterclass – Easy. Ashcroft asked those same questions last year. Back then he did labour one week, conservatives the next. I expect well be seeing a re-run of the reasons people arent voting tory next week.

  45. @Lurker

    I’m really not seeing a groundswell of demand for an immediate referendum repeat. Most Yes supporters are going to be pragmatic to the extent of not wanting another immediate defeat so they won’t want another referendum until Scots opinion is in favour of having one.

    As I’ve said polling evidence shows at least a 5 year wait before even a majority of Yes voters want another one and more like 10 years before you get a majority in favour of holding it again.

    The fight will be over the SNP manifesto for Holyrood in 2021. My guess would be the leadership wanting to wait another 4-5 years (2025 or so) but some grass roots members pushing for a repeat vote in more like 2022 or so.

    Either way the SNP leadership won’t get any criticism for not pushing a vote at Westminster as all agree Holyrood has the mandate. Don’t be surprised to see SNP demanding for Holyrood the right to call a referendum in future be added to the Smith powers. Imagine that and Trident will be the SNP “Red Lines”.

  46. I don’t think the Ashcroft phone polls have a lot of credibility.

    Even if the Tories are 4% ahead in England (34-30), that would be a Lab swing in England of 4.5% approximately. (2010 England vote shares were 39.6 Con, 32 Lab).

  47. And as for the TNS poll… Oh dear!

  48. Scrub my England only stats from 2010. Multitasking!

    2010 – Tories 39.6 Lab 28.2 in England. Now Con 34 Lab 30. That’s a swing of 3.7%.

  49. FFS -im on a train so cant prune the thread properly, but guven it seems to impossible for any discussion of scottish politics not to devolve into partisan squabbling within about two comments can we go back to limiting Scottish discussion to Scottish threads. There should be a couple in the next couple of days.

  50. RAF

    On 8 May it’s going to be interesting to see whether the idea of UNS and, therefor, swing keeps any validity, or whether it will be just be relegated to a historical footnote about how conformist people were back in the 20th century.

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