Two polls in the Sunday papers – the fortnightly Opinium for the Observer and the weekly YouGov for the Sunday Times.

YouGov have topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%. It’s the first Labour lead YouGov have shown for a week. It’s probably just normal sample variation, but is a reminder that despite a week of polls that had more Conservative leads than Labour ones, the polls are still really neck-and-neck. Tabs here.

Opinium meanwhile have topline figures of CON 32%(+4), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 5%(-2), UKIP 18%(-2), GRN 6%(nc), the two main parties moving into the same tight lead we’re seeing across most polls. The five percent score for the Lib Dems is equals their lowest since the post-merger period around 1990. Tabs are here.


376 Responses to “Latest Opinium and YouGov polls”

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  1. Ignoring the outlier, it looks good for the Tories.

  2. First- ish.

  3. LD looks too high.

  4. This Opinium poll looks more in line with other pollsters than the last one, which showed ukip only 8pts behind the Tories.

  5. Yougov CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

    “It’s the first Labour lead YouGov have shown for a week. It’s probably just normal sample variation”
    _____

    Yeah I was thinking that too.

  6. Absolute whopper of a cross break though North of the border.

    Ok that’s me done for now. Got the small matter of my team playing NewCo today.

    Mon the hoops!!

    And just to add, great result for my other team..The Reds…YNWA

  7. Ignoring the outlier, it looks good for the Tories.

    which outlier…AW just said the latest yougov was within moe, so it’s not an outlier.

    we will have to wait a week, but think the greens may be dipping a bit…they were on double figures in two polls about two weeks ago.

    ukip remain quite solid. still think it’s labour’s to lose, but they are so weak that they could easy mess the whole thing up.

  8. Looking at the YouGov tabs, it seems the move was entirely among 2010 non- (or “other”) voters… So something to bear in mind besides the usual “anything that looks interesting” caveat…

  9. Yep, Greens seem to be down a little on last week. Not sure why, although they’ve been pretty well silent since the Bennett interview. I’m not sure what will raise their profile back up apart from, unfortunately for them, if one of their candidates does or says something stupid or they announce a dodgy-sounding policy. The press will love that.

  10. Okay, thanks. I got a message about robots! Very strange…

  11. @Amber Star

    I got this message: “Some results may have been removed under data protection law in Europe. Learn more”.

  12. An outlier is a form of sample variation, especially with yougovs fixed panels.
    How many are on that panel? Can people influence it? ie Greens get all their members to join, to distort the figures?

  13. @Mr Nameless

    “I’m not sure what will raise their profile back up apart from, unfortunately for them, if one of their candidates does or says something stupid or they announce a dodgy-sounding policy. The press will love that.”

    How to sustain their profile must be a conundrum for Cameron now. He succeeded in boosting it with the shenanigans over the TV debates, but that’s moved on at least in terms of the focus on the Greens.

    The right wing press won’t generally have a go at the Greens. If you’re under instructions to talk up the Greens’ prospects it doesn’t make sense to simultaneously rubbish them.

  14. Amber Star @ LizH

    That’s a standard message.

    For example, Google “Lesley Brennan Labour” (Stewart Hosie’s opponent) and you’ll get exactly the same.

  15. @Allan Christie

    “Yeah I was thinking that too.”

    “Absolute whopper of a cross break though North of the border.”

    In consecutive posts you choose to dismiss as unreliable the main properly weighted poll yet are perfectly happy to focus enthusiastically on a tiny crossbreak within it?

  16. ALLAN CHRISTIE
    AMBER

    If you have the same ISP, it’s likely them under threat.

    Are other Google searches normal for you?

  17. Phil Haines,

    No the right wing press won’t – but there is a fairly sizeable Labour-supporting press contingent at the Graun, Indy, New Statesman, Huffpost, etc. Let’s be honest, they’re probably more widely read among potential Greens than the Mail or Express.

  18. @ Barbarzenzero

    Are other Google searches normal for you?

    Yes, they are. It was just that one which was weird.

  19. I got an odd message on my TV – “Receiver has not been in action for some time”.

    Bloody nonsense.

    Murray and Djokovic have both been brilliant at receiving serves.

  20. AMBER STAR
    Yes, they are. It was just that one which was weird.

    OK. You might check your online security plug-in is current and/or that your network is secure.

    Avast and some other anti-virus providers include those in their free versions if you don’t already have them.

  21. @Amber

    I discovered Clarkston Community Council refuse to let her take minutes on an iPad. Doesn’t surprise me. Clarkston is a bit stuck in the 19th Century.

    Also her mother is a councillor in Carnoustie and she works as head of HR for South Lanarkshire College.

    Best of all she seems to have attracted the dislike of the East Renfrewshire Neighbourhood Watch website which appears to be run by eccentric, progress hating, 19th century, Tories.

    So she can’t be all bad if ERNHW dislike her!

  22. @ Barbazenzero

    Thanks; my security is up-to-date & I did a scan which said there had been no issues with my computer – but I’ll do some more checks to be on the safe side.

  23. It seems to be fine now when I google her. I’m guessing the security stuff I did just now must have fixed the issue.

  24. And my thanks to everybody who replied. :-)

  25. @Amber, LizH

    I don’t think the message quoted is in any way abnormal.
    I believe it comes up on every Google search for an individual following recent cases about people being able to disgoogle content they don’t like.
    I get it if I Google myself!

  26. @ON

    You are right – that is a standard message which I had not noticed before.

  27. @Hoof Hearted – “Ignoring the outlier, it looks good for the Tories.”

    I highlighted one of your posts last night (the one where you talked about momentum being with Cons, immediately before the YG result came through) and while you took me gently to task on that occasion, I wasn’t actually commenting directly on what you had posted. It was actually a general comment on how we all are confounded by polls at some time or another.

    This morning, I’m going to be less charitable to you.

    Your first post on this thread is just plain wrong. We have the last three polls, from three different companies, none of them obviously an outlier (unless the large movement to Con in Opinium is, but it is almost certainly a return to normal after their previous odd poll) and all three show Labour ahead, by an average 1.7%.

    So on this evidence alone, that’s pretty much the death knell for Tory chances, and in no circumstances could be said to be ‘looking good’ for them.

    Of course, having said that, we should take more than the last three polls and add in Labour’s problems in Scotland, and then perhaps the situation won’t look at clear cut.

    That’s fine, and a perfectly rational bit of subjective analysis.

    We could then get even more subjective and make various assumptions about what will happen in the next 13 weeks, which is also fine, if that’s what we want to do.

    What we can’t do is to deny that the most recent polls, taken at face value alone, do not look good for the Tories. That doesn’t mean that the next three polls won’t be, but I do think blatantly incorrect statement like yours should be qualified.

  28. Charts updated folks. I concur with others from the previous thread regarding Con and SNP in Scotland creeping up. See the Calendar months for Con, and the 6-poll averages for SNP. The latter is an incomplete data point, so it’s more a case of ‘wait and see’.

    In other news…Leadership ratings are all over the place as usual, but all three are down in Scotland (as usual). Would love to have Farage, Bennett/Harvie, Wood and Sturgeon in there too for comparison. I’m of the opinion that it’s a ‘plague on all the main houses’, rather than all the houses.

    If you’re familiar with my opposition ‘MAD’ lead chart (the MAD of the leads of 65 polls…13 weeks…3 months)…the last time the lead was above 1% (Lab lead) was the 24th of November. Having said that, the lowest (for Lab) has been 0.7% on the 10th of October.

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/polling/approval-ratings/party-lead/

    If we look at the 12-month trends, there’s an almost crossover with Con / Lab in the UK, definite crossover with Green / Lib Dem (Midlands and North leading the way), while Lib, UKIP and Green in Scotland all fall to below 5%.

  29. @Anthony

    I’d be grateful if you could enlighten me as to what set the auto-mod on my post. I can’t see a single thing that would do it. If we don’t know what does it, how can we self-moderate? :))

  30. Alec – I think modest rises for the big 2 (UK parties) is the trend for the story of the last week or so.

    Some of the 2010 LD vote (a third perhaps so 8% in total) could be said to be a NOTA that was surprised to find that the LDs turned out to be One of the Above.

    In this sense Con+Lab+ 15% for that LD vote that is not a NOTA vote means about 80% for the 3 main Westminster parties.

    I think there is every chance of Con+Lab+LD reaching 80% again in 2015 and if it falls just short it could be Lab losing 1-2% of its’ total GB vote to the SNP.

  31. @Alec
    You can cut it anyway you choose Alec and be pedantic about a posters choice of words, but things ARE looking “better” for the Conservative party. The You Gov poll is almost certainly a high end variation as AW points out, but then he is not in the business of pushing one party in front of another, to suit his own politics.

  32. Jim Jam

    ” a NOTA that was surprised to find that the LDs turned out to be One of the Above.”

    Brilliant! :-)

  33. Two continually striking things for me from all these polls. Firstly, the almost total lack of correlation between the Tory and Labour VI ratings and, secondly, the persistently and stubbornly high UKIP score, despite continuing predictions of their imminent demise. Here we are, some 90 odd days away from polling day, and we see them on 15% and 18%. Extraordinary, and I still maintain they will create utter havoc on May 5th, queering the pitch in all sorts of marginal constituencies. They’re highly motivated, numerous in terms of feet on the ground, well organised and tapping into voter disillusionment with mainstream politics better than anyone else. I’m sorry if this upsets some people’s devotion to electoral orthodoxy, but they’re really not going to go away any time soon. 10 to 12% VI for me in May, possibly a tad higher if the unedifying campaigning we’ve already seen from the two major parties continues.

    Then there’s this strange and mysterious case of the pendulum that didn’t swing in the night. Tories and Labour up together, then down together, then sticking together, but absolutely no sign of the migration from Labour straight over to the Tories that will need to happen for the Tories to win.

    It seems to me that a score draw stalemate from here on in for Labour more or less sees them home in May. It’s for the Tories to make the game changing move from here, not the opposition. They have to hole the Labour boat below the water line and hope that the fleeing passengers jump into their lifeboats, not anyone else’s.

    Especially when they’ve still got their own passengers eyeing UKIP lifeboats too!

    :-)

  34. MrNameless (fpt)

    What this amounts to is a solid prediction on my part: the swing towards the Greens will be lower in their existing areas of strength than it will be in areas where they’ve previously done badly.

    Well logically that’s what you’d expect. Ashcroft can give us an insight here because he has polled Brighton Pavilion twice, 11-20 November[1] and previously 5-12 Jun (Nov / Jun / Diff)

    Con 20% / 18% / +2

    Lab 28% / 34% / -6

    Lib Dem 4% / 5% / -1

    UKIP 8% / 10% / -2

    Green 39% / 33% / +6

    Other 1% / 2% / -1

    If you compare these with the contemporary Ashcroft national polls[2]

    Con 29 / 28% / +1

    Lab 31% / 34% / -3

    Lib Dem 8% / 8% / +0

    UKIP 17% / 17% / +0

    Green 7% / 7% / +0

    Other 8% / 7% / +1

    there isn’t a lot of movement (the first poll was just after the Euros and shows how a lot of Green surge was regaining from a summer dip).

    There may be local factors in Brighton that caused the boost, but it looks if anything that the change is strongest where there is already a big Green vote – the opposite of what you’d expect. Presumably this is partly due to them being the obvious local destination for dissatisfied national voters and partly about plausibility and no wasting your vote.

    [1] The Ashcroft website now has a section called Constituency Polls with pretty bar charts of the CVI. However it labels them with the month of publication not sampling and, even worse, fails to provide a link to the tables. My constituency figures are from the tables before final readjustment (which I’m dubious about anyway) because I want to see what people felt at the time.

    [2] Taking an average of 4 around the time to mitigate Ashcroft’s noted volatility

  35. Roly

    It is true that things are looking better for the Tories, but they are also looking better for Labour. As Jim Jam says, the trend is for a rise in vi for both the two main parties.

    There, that’s pretty non-partisan. :)

  36. @HH

    Again the Tories show they cannot get to 35 on YG. A couple of 34s and back down to their normal level of 32.

  37. @R&D

    “What evidence there is though does NOT demonstrate a Tory revival.”

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/blogs/thepoliticswire/1064/Predicting-the-Mayoral-Election-an-alternative-approach.aspx

    Chelsea or Man City…or will Man Utd launch a surprise come-back?

  38. Actually, this is the link, although the main table is in both:

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/ca/357/Political-Football.aspx

  39. I think Tories overhype the good news, as is seen in the betting markets. Smithson as usual is on the money when he says tory -inclined pundits respond more buoyantly to good news than labour pundits.

    Having said all that, there doesn’t seem to be enough momentum, swingback if you call it, behind the tories to put them in commanding position. I am an anti-labour voter, but i think they still have the best hand.

    I wouldn’t underestimate Miliband’s lack of skills as a communicator and a “front man”. I think he has been fundamentally miscast in his role, and i still think he could really scr*w things for labour….so the numbers are slightly in labour’s favour, but any uncertainty lies against them in my view.

    It’s finally balanced. We also need a clearer picture from Scotland. The key figure to look for in the Ashcroft polls is the average swing from labour to SNP, anything under 10% will mean the SNP capacity to win seats of labour has been overhyped. anything over 20% and labour have a serious problem. I’d be amazed if the figure was higher than 20%.

  40. Am I right in saying there is a lot of local election on 7th May? I think they could be a factor in marginals.
    The big two parties have been in decline for decades. Uncertain times, just look at Greece.

  41. I find posters who call other peoples opinions “soppy” rather unpleasant, especially when there is no justification in the comment. There are other sites for those sorts of comments as AW often says

    People disagree on what the polling we see every day means in terms of the coming election , I am sure that is one of the reasons for this website, and it is one of the reasons why it is interesting on the whole.

    Lets keep the site clear of abuse.

  42. ToH – I thought an l was missing and paul meant sloppy?

  43. RAF

    Are you saying she had a chequered history? Do tell.

  44. @John

    Not at all. I was referencing Liz H’s post about the message she received from her search engine and explaining the so called “right to be forgotten”. I wasn’t saying or implying anything else.

  45. RAF

    As Guymonde pointed out above, googling your own name can produce that message.

    Probably a mistake to imply (even accidentally) that there might be some kind of doubt about someone’s past on the basis of that message appearing.

  46. “LD looks too high.”

    Given that LD’s tend to be youngish and high earners and thus most likely at work rather than pontificating on websites vs Ukippers who tend to be mostly retired and thus have all day to answer opinion polls and comment relentlessly on the internet I suspect, even allowing for weighting, that the LDs are generally under represented in these polls and UKIP over represented.

    Populus are the only one I’ve seen weighting factors for and iirc they consider 44% of the population to be retired, which is at odds with what the ONS says.

  47. @AW

    Please delete my comments on the “right to be forgotten” issue as they may be misconstrued.

  48. I liked the way Opinium did the issues questions, with cross breaks for ALL of the parties.

    This was interesting

    You mentioned that you would vote [party] in a general election. Which of the following, if any, would you say is the main reason why you intend to vote for this party

    Conservative – 49% economy
    Labour – 37% health, 17% economy
    LD – 26% economy, 17% leadership, 11% health
    SNP – 31% leadership, 24% economy, 23% other
    UKIP – 71% immigration, 8% foreign policy
    Green – 60% environment, 13% other

    So as I thought, the UKIP vote is a lot more to do with immigration than Europe, BUT I was wrong on the Green vote – I had thought it had more to do with Inequality, but it seems it IS the environment driving those voters.

    We can now also get an understanding at last about what the issues are for voters of minor parties

    What would you say are the most important issues facing you and your family?

    SNP – health/NHS 52%, Economy 43%, Inequality 38%
    Green – NHS – 55%, Inequality 37%, Economy/Low pay 34%

    So perhaps that contradicts the earlier question, but environment was not an option there.

    We can also see for the undecided voters their main issues impacting them are:

    NHS 58%
    Economy 49%
    Low pay 34%
    Education 18%
    Housing 16%
    Immigration 15%

    Notice how low immigration is on that list.

    Worryingly for Labour those undecided voters answered as follows to the question
    Which party do you trust the most to look after the NHS?

    None of the above 66%
    Labour 17%
    Conservative 11%

    So it seems this election is going to be about the economy and the NHS. But you can see from the first question, the Tories don’t have the monopoly on the economy, many Labour voters are choosing Labour because they think they have better answers on the economy. And Labour has not convinced people on the NHS either.

    And those SNP/Green/ PC voters seem to be driven by Leadership, environment, NHS and inequality. So if Labour wants to get some of those voters they need to do better on those issues.

  49. @RAF

    “Please delete my comments on the “right to be forgotten” issue as they may be misconstrued.”

    For balance you ought to also post on the ‘left to be forgotten’. :-p

  50. With labour at each other’s throats and fighting like ferrets in a sack, I would say that things are definitely on the up for the Tories. The public don’t like party’s at war with themselves. I agree that the polls have yet to fully confirm this but at this stage in the game, I would rather be in Dave’s shoes, than Ed’s and the indication from recent polls is that permanent crossover is imminent.

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