Two polls in the Sunday papers – the fortnightly Opinium for the Observer and the weekly YouGov for the Sunday Times.

YouGov have topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%. It’s the first Labour lead YouGov have shown for a week. It’s probably just normal sample variation, but is a reminder that despite a week of polls that had more Conservative leads than Labour ones, the polls are still really neck-and-neck. Tabs here.

Opinium meanwhile have topline figures of CON 32%(+4), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 5%(-2), UKIP 18%(-2), GRN 6%(nc), the two main parties moving into the same tight lead we’re seeing across most polls. The five percent score for the Lib Dems is equals their lowest since the post-merger period around 1990. Tabs are here.


376 Responses to “Latest Opinium and YouGov polls”

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  1. AW

    Can we also remove the other partisan comments by banning any discussion of the 2015 GE?

    I’m happy just to post jokes.

  2. A Brit, a Brit and a Brit walked into a pub ……..

  3. Anthony,

    Spoil Sport!

    Peter.

  4. @Anthony Wells

    Just bar all Scots

  5. @ Anthony

    FFS -im on a train so cant prune the thread properly
    ———
    We’d noticed… Peter Cairns’s silly insult (5:22pm) re my factual response to points raised by Alec & Pete B still requires pruning!

  6. RAF
    Not quite understanding what point you are making. Tories 4 points in front of Labour in England. In 2010 they were 11 points in front of Labour. This means that if nothing changes over the next 14 weeks, Labour will gain 45 seats at Tory expense.
    Therefore, George Osborn had better spend his £3billion windfall wisely at the budget. I am sure he will.

  7. Those SKY things with Mili/Cam/Cleggers & the Green Lady were good.

    Good to see young people criticising childish political knockabout.

    !

  8. @OldNat

    Rumours of the imminent death of GB UNS have long been greatly exaggerated. For example, i’ve yet to find anyone who says that it Labour finish top of the GB UNS pops they will fail to be in Government.

  9. Colin

    “Good to see young people criticising childish political knockabout.”

    You can’t seriously be describing Anthony as a “young person”!

  10. RAF

    “GB UNS”?

    It would be somewhat inappropriate to suggest that such a thing still existed, as it largely did last century.

    As for that part of GB that Anthony wishes to limit discussion to, I’m not suggesting that UNS is dead – just that we won’t find out if there are remaining life signs until 8 May.

  11. At the risk of incurring Anthony’s wrath (last post on Scotland for now, Promise)

    @Amber Interesting to hear GBs views. You know I have a lot of time for him and he’ll be missed. Cllr Selbie is a lovely bloke but not quite a political heavyweight yet (Michael Marra may also be a lovely bloke but I’ve never met him).

  12. Northumbrianscot

    As I understand it, neither gentleman on the 9 January shortlist is guaranteed to replace the former British PM as the candidate in his current British constituency. Apparently, the selection will be made by the British party executive in the UK capital.

  13. Spearmint

    Your argument for a Federal structure is perfectly sensible.

    In the USA, for example, there is a Federal minimum wage -which is the minimum throughout the Union. Individual states can and do, vary that, but an individual state like California isn’t the basis for the standard across the Union

    A Federal UK Government establishing minimum standards would be fine, with the individual polities like Wales having full fiscal autonomy to vary taxation to alter that.

  14. Sorry, my post above should say £30 billion wind fall for George Osborn. Should be some good giveaways with that.

  15. I note that GB Labour now says it has the largest membership in the UK at 194,269.

    That’s around 10 times the size of the 3rd largest party, so that number of activists should be able to crush them quite easily.

  16. Old Nat,

    A Brit, a Brit and a Brit walked into a pub…..

    They must have been too deep in argument to see where they were going…

    :-)

  17. If the Greece situation sparks another financial crisis, who do posters think will benefit? My gut feeling is that the Conservatives will get quite a boost. Anyone have a view?

  18. Is that 30bill on top of the already 7.5 bill unfunded tax cuts?at a time when the deficit is 95 bill ish

    A difficult political sell to say the least -would be seen as desperation methinks.

  19. Maybe both anti EU parties with benefit.

  20. “A Brit, a Brit and a Brit walked into a pub ……..”

    There’s a 45% chance that the last Brit was a Nat.

    :-p

  21. So back to Professor Rose.

    I’m interested in his Lib Dem predictions.

    He has an aggressive model that shows Lib Dems falling back 44 from 59 to 13.

    These gains are shared
    +26 Conservative
    +10 Labour
    +8 SNP

    As I mentioned earlier he predicts 3 Lib Dem holds in Scotland (I presume O&S, R,S&L and B,R&S) for a net loss of 10 (and no Scottish Conservative gains) so he must be assuming 2 Scottish Lib Dem seats fall to Labour (presumably East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West).

    He also predicts no change for Plaid Cymru so presumably he thinks Ceredigion is a Lib Dem hold. To have those levels of Lib Dem losses he must be assuming Cardiff Central falls to Labour and Brecon & Radnorshire to the Conservatives.

    So in England we are left with a prediction of:
    9 Lib Dem holds
    25 Conservative Gains
    9 Labour Gains

    9 Labour gains is basically all the English Lib Dem seats where Labour was in second place except one of Bristol West / Bermondsey & Southwark.

    25 Con gains would see Lib Dems losing everything up to and including seats like Eastbourne, Eastleigh, Cheltenham, Kingston & Surbiton and Lewes.

    All this assumes he doesn’t predict Labour coming from 3rd place anywhere although that’s a reasonable probability in Cambridge and an outside possibility in Hazel Grove, Leeds North West and perhaps even Sheffield Hallam if our Mr N has his way.

    The rump English Lib Dems would basically be Tim Farron, Nick Clegg, Vince Cable and Greg Mulholland.

    Now this may well come to pass but it’s a very aggressive prediction and contradicts Constituency polling in at least:
    Bermondsey & Old Southwark
    Birmingham Yardley
    Brecon & Radnorshire
    Colchester
    Eastleigh
    Hazel Grove

    Professor Rose must have some serious doubts about Ashcroft Constituency polling (although he does appear to endorse it for his UKIP predictions.

    If the Lib Dem vote behaves even slightly more like the Constituency Polling suggests there would be a net loss of around 10-15 from his Conservative prediction of 293 to around 280 and an increase in Lib Dems from 13 to 25 or so.

    These revised figures are very close to what other models are suggesting.

    So the difference of Rose’s prediction from others is a more aggressive loss of English Lib Dem seats to the Conservatives than most other models / Constituency polling suggests.

  22. @Roland

    I’m sure there will be some giveaways in the Budget, but it’s so close the the election that I think most people who are going to vote would already have decided on their vote by that time.

  23. New thread.

  24. The LibDems might be highly critical of any attempt at a giveaway Budget – that would be likely to damage Osborne’s credibility quite a bit.

  25. Surprised that nobody has commented on this TNS BMRB poll which to the uninitiated looks sensational.

    Lab in an ELEVEN point lead?!?!

    Or is the view here simply that TNS are complete rubbish?

    @ Pups
    Thanks for the tip about Spiral. Hadn’t seen it previously but now challenging Inspector Montalbano in my top cops hot hundred.

  26. Talking of complete rubbish .. and avoiding Scotland … just for fun I did the % crossbreak from Ashcroft for Wales. Shockingly low sample of course. Still :

    lab 40%
    con 17%
    libdem 13%
    pc 13%
    ukip 7%
    green 7%
    other 3%

    I won’t even try to suggest what UNS would mean for seats gained by Labour …more than just the two Cardiff seats I think. I did hear from a normally fair fruit on on the grapevine that Labour estimate they are gaining votes disprortionately here in the Welsh marginals.

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