As well as the regular GB poll, YouGov have released new Welsh and London polls this week.

The London polling for the Evening Standard is here and has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. Despite its Conservative mayor London tends to be more Labour than the country as a whole – at the last election the Labour party were two points ahead of the Tories in London, compared to the seven point Tory lead across Great Britain. This means a ten point Labour lead in London is a four point swing from Con to Labour, the equivalent of a one point Labour lead in a GB poll. In other words, the swing to Labour in London is pretty much the same as in Britain as a whole.

The Welsh polling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University is here and has topline figures of CON 23%, LAB 37%, LDEM 6%, PC 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%. Compared to the general election result this is Labour up 1, the Conservatives down 3 – a swing of 2 points (so actually a smaller swing to Labour than in Britain as a whole). Roger Scully of Cardiff University’s analysis of the poll is here.


419 Responses to “YouGov London and Welsh polling”

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  1. I’m looking to fill the gap in my Yougov polling data and am missing the following:

    Does anyone have the May 7th 2010 to November 1st 2011 data?

    All party and regional data for the same period (London, RoS, M&W, North, Scotland).

    All the unweighted sample data for those periods if possible. If not, no bother. This is just on the off chance.

    Only the YG data is needed, but if mixed with other polls, will happily take that and do the separating required.

    Here’s an example of my data format to date (1st to 4th Nov 2011):

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/data.png

    So I need Con, Lab, Lib Green and UKIP (SNP in Scotland too). I did look online at wiki, but that particular source is not filled yet (or I looked in the wrong place).

  2. KEITHP
    I feel that the next government will be very weak, bordering on helplessness compared to one with a single-party majority, even including the current one.

    It need not be if they follow the SNP’s 2007-2011 model. They tried a consensual approach and succeeded as a minority government for a full 4-year term, gaining popularity in doing so and were rewarded with an overall majority in a semi-proportional system in 2011.

    The problem for Lab and Con is that they seem to learnt no lessons from that success and often achieve consensus between themselves only on topics the public don’t want. Time for some speed learning?

  3. The BBC interactive poll tracker is back on line: if you look at a the period from Novemeber 14 onward it is interesting to note how relatively stable VI appears to be, there are blips that reflect particular events but there is a Fluctuation in tory VI between 31 and 33 per cent, a similar fluctuation in Labour VI between 32 and 34 per cent, a decrease in LD VI from 9 to 8%, Fluctuation in Green VI between 5 and 6%, More volatility between UKIP and others but only marginally so, given the saturation of policitcal coverage in 2014 (perhaps focused on Scotland up to September) including (virtually) daily reports on immigration and the NHS on national TV might it be right to say that none of the political parties, nor even the senior politicians that make them visible to the public have anything to say which will shift a significant number of voters.
    If that proposition is right is there any possibility of anything other than coalition after coalition unless “cometh the hour cometh the man (or woman)”

  4. If the gap between the parties had been rounded – rather than the party shares themselves – this week’s YouGov results would have been shown as
    Tues – Con +2%
    Weds -Con +1%
    Thurs – Lab +1%

  5. @WB

    ‘If that proposition is right is there any possibility of anything other than coalition after coalition unless “cometh the hour cometh the man (or woman)”’

    Yes – we might have minority governments.

  6. Murray through to the final!

  7. OLDNAT
    Murray through to the final!

    Yes, but puts me in a quandary tonight….

    I’ll be rooting for Stan the Man [as his fellow Vaudois call him] but suspect Djokovic would be Murray’s preferred opponent.

  8. [email protected]

    “I find STV more even-handed than the BBC.”

    “If it wasn’t for AW’s encyclical I would be minded to invoke Mandy Rice-Davies.”

    Jolly good job you didn’t then Guy.

    …………………………………………………………………………………

    Re earlier comments on the smaller parties being squeezed by May that has been my expectation all along.

    The GE will be won [I am stating the obvious] seat by seat with voting having a localised variation on a national mean.

    The main groups are not really PRO anyone – they are anti either Tory or Labour.

    My own view, based on polling, is that the ABT block is larger than the ABL block. This will also mean quite a few Lib Dems survive, against the odds, because they have the potential to fit into both camps.

    Apart from Clegg of course – who I have to say is probably the most rounded of all three main leaders. I don’t think it will do him much good though.

    It could easily end up with the main VI a fairly even share of 70% and Labour winning a fair majority of seats compared to the Tories because of localised factors.

  9. Murphy affecting Labour prospects in London?

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jim-murphys-mansion-tax-boast-will-hurt-labour-in-london-poll-finds-10007945.html

    (but probably not by much, I’d guess).

  10. Phil Haines,

    “The Government is potentially highly vulnerable to this”

    I think that as a general rule, if this is the only way we can keep something on topic, we shouldn’t talk about it.

  11. @STATGEEK

    I tried believing in cognitive dissonance, but I was never comfortable with it.

    Genius :)

  12. Just tried the advance swingometer on here using the latest figures. Gives 299 Lab, 274 Tory, 17 LD and 60 others: food for thought?

  13. Am I allowed to use the phrase ‘car crash’ when talking about Guido’s comment section?

  14. Merlin has long been regarded as a serious setback for the Tories, as it’s creaky and crashy. Labour have Contact Creator, which is okay, and I’m told the Lib Dems have the best one out there.

    A lot of discussion here is focused on the polling and air war, but little is expended on discussion of the ground war in constituency-level detail. The ability for parties to manage data, ensure their electoral register is up to date and record voting intention, as well as have enough members to canvass and leaflet, is just as important.

  15. The question of how YouGov’s London polling has worked before is an interesting one. I thought I’d look at how they performed in 2010 (there’s now a useful London tracker):

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3o7lqdu0io/YG-Trackers-London-141124.pdf

    the only London poll taken in the election period (f/w 11-18 Apr) gave:

    Con 39% (36)

    Lab 33% (30)

    Lib Dem 22% (25)

    Others 6%[1] (9)

    Figures in brackets are average of the 7 GB YouGovs taken in the fieldwork period. To confuse matter Cleggmania hit in the middle of this period so there may be some distortion if the the London sampling was not evenly spread though it. The previous poll at the end of Feb was Con 39, Lab 35, LD 17, Oth 11.

    The actual London result (ex Wiki) in May was:

    Con 35% (37)

    Lab 37% (30)

    Lib Dem 22% (24)

    Others 7% (9)

    This might suggest that YouGov was much poorer at estimating London with a 6 point Con lead instead of a 2 point Lab one. As opposed to GB which, three weeks before polling, they got pretty spot-on. But something else might be going on here.

    The next YouGov London poll after the election wasn’t for over a year (f/w 7-9 Jun 2011) was:

    Con 32% (37)

    Lab 51% (42)

    Lib Dem 8% (9)

    Other 8% (12)

    (GB figures in brackets average of two almost identical polls)

    So the ‘redder’ picture we saw in the result, then appears in the polling. This may be due to political factors particular to London that continued after the election or it could be due to better Labour organisation in the capital (certainly a very high percentage of their members are there).

    Or there may be technical reasons. The pre-election polling figures seem based on this weekly regional summary (I can’t find any individual tables):

    ht tps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/today_uk_import/YG-Archives-Pol-PoliticsHomeRegional-100425.pdf

    Now I would assume that the data from each region in the table was re-weighted to the appropriate targets and so should be as accurate as a ‘proper’ poll over the same period. But I wonder if the London region was also weighted for ethnicity, as the 2011 one certainly was:

    ht tps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/today_uk_import/yg-archives-pol-yougov-londonvimayor-210611.pdf

    in which case the inaccuracy of the 2010 polls may be more to do with inadequate weighting and it certainly shows the importance of the ethnic adjustment that Richard has been been advocating.

    [1] This is the (joint) lowest Others score in London and may indicate how the smaller Parties got squeezed in 2010. Whether the same thing will happen again is a different issue.

  16. “Just tried the advance swingometer on here using the latest figures. Gives 299 Lab, 274 Tory, 17 LD and 60 others: food for thought?”

    Not really.

    “Am I allowed to use the phrase ‘car crash’ when talking about Guido’s comment section?”

    Alexei Sayle used to say that the trendy term “workshop” should only be used in the context of light engineering.

    Similarly you should try to limit the use of the trendy “car crash” epithet to real crashes involving actual cars.

    Shakespeare managed to be very original with his use of the English language – and that was bleedin’ ages ago.

    Just sayin’ ……………………..

    [LOL etc etc etc]

  17. 07052015

    Pressman rebuked ?

    Not really. Just the Sun pretending to its readers that it’s independently fighting for their views rather than slavishly following a political agenda dictated by its owner. Somehow I doubt the attacks on Miliband will stop whatever he promises.

    Though I was amused by the sudden conversion of the paper to the belief that too many people were being locked up for non-violent crimes (say for example hacking a phone or bribing a police officer). In the past they’ve been very enthusiastic about the use of prison, what could have changed that opinion do you think?

  18. For those of you who hate spurious accuracy, turn away now

    Below is the time-weighted average of the last 5 YouGov polls (covering a week), using the raw numbers rather than the rounded numbers as inputs …

    Con 32.9% Lab 32.8% LibDem 6.4% UKIP 15.0% Green 7.1% Other 5.8%

    Lead 0.1% Con

    Level pegging I’d say …

  19. Mrnameless

    Merlin has long been regarded as a serious setback for the Tories, as it’s creaky and crashy.

    Indeed. But if you’re main problem is having enough donations over £500 that there’s too many to cope with manually, then I suspect that’s a situation that most political parties could live with.

    More worrying for you should be the number of Conservative Associations that have converted to a new system. I think there may a certain complacency about the ‘ground war’ because Labour feels it has more (unpaid for) boots on the ground. But targeted mailshots and phone calls may be more effective than traditional methods of canvassing and leaflet drops and may not be as obvious to the competition.

    One little thing may give a bit of hope though. The Survation poll earlier in the week showed a one point Con lead. However Survation did a bit of an Ashcroft and, as well as asking If there was a General Election taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for?, then said The general election is on 7 May 2015. Thinking specifically about your own constituency and the parties and candidates likely to be in contention, how do you think you will vote on 7 May?:

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Daily-Mirror-General-Election-Poll-I.pdf

    This evened things up, putting Labour slightly ahead. So there may be a slight local advantage for Labour, though not much. Certainly there’s no evidence of an incumbency bonus for the Conservatives coming through nationally.

    There were some interesting details. Unlike with Ashcroft, there was no real drop in undecideds by asking a second question. (I suspect this may be a difference between online and phone polls). So these undecideds seem genuine rather than protesting.

    There wasn’t much movement between Parties either. Lab, Con and UKIP all retained about 94% of their voters. This again suggests that hopes of UKIP voters ‘coming to their senses’ and all voting Tory are optimistic. Indeed what movement there was went to Labour indicating these more recent converts might be more lightly attached. The Greens also seem fairly solid, though the low rating they get from Survation may confuse this.

  20. @OldNat

    “Murphy affecting Labour prospects in London?”

    Actually, no. It’s more like “Evening Standard reporting attempting to affect Labour prospects in London”.

    Look at the wording of their poll. “The Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy says homeowners in London and the South East will largely fund 1,000 nurses in Scotland through the “mansion tax” under his party’s plans. Does his comment make you more or less favourable towards Labour or would it make no difference?”

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/m6ukqdufou/EveningStandard_Mansion_Tax_London_150121_Website.pdf

    Firstly, the generality of “homeowners in London…” implies that it’s all or a large number of homeowners in London, rather than just a few in £2m+ properties. Secondly, there’s no mention that the same tax will fund extra nurses in London as well. And thirdly, the reference to Murphy specifically clearly sets it up as an us v the Scots issue, with predictable results.

    If you wanted a true test of London opinion on the mansion tax, that stated both its impact and benefits to Londoners in a neutral way, you would word it something like this.

    “Labour says that owners of homes worth £2m, which are mainly in London and the South East, will largely fund their plans for XX,000 extra NHS staff throughout the UK including London by paying the “mansion tax” the party plans to introduce. Does this policy make you more or less favourable towards Labour or would it make no difference?”

    (And if you really wanted to do justice to the policy, you would also make reference to the specific exemptions for asset rich, income poor people from its provisions).

    As it is, we have another example of a newspaper hostile to Labour designing a poll to generate the headline it desires to print.

  21. @Phil Haines

    That is all very well but Murphy gave them the ammunition – for tbh near zero political benefit in Scotland. It was hardly reported and has now been largely forgotten. Of course the money is coming to Scotland regardless of who the Scottish government is (assuming Labour get in and implement the mansion tax) so I am sure the SNP might find better ways of spending it for more political impact.

  22. @TOC

    I have been saying for ages that the NHS polling questions do not justify Labour’s focus on the NHS.

  23. Statgeek

    I’m looking to fill the gap in my Yougov polling data and am missing the following:

    Does anyone have the May 7th 2010 to November 1st 2011 data?

    They should be available on a day-to-day basis on the Archive[1] eg:

    https://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/?year=2010&category=politics&month=6&page=3

    but I don’t know if anyone else has extracted them at a regional level (that’s what you do ;) ). The ‘daily’ poll didn’t start till late June – you can check the headline figures against the daily VI tracker. You also need to careful when copying UKIP and Green figures as they change position in the tables depending on value.

    [1] Certainly there were some there when I was checking that London data, usually with ‘voting intention’ in the description. I seem to remember the odd one going missing, but there may be a link from this blog from around the time.

  24. Phil Haines

    “As it is, we have another example of a newspaper hostile to Labour designing a poll to generate the headline it desires to print.”

    Yep. It’s called politics. All parties (and well-heeled supporters) commission polls to test out campaign lines. Where they seem to work, they often publish the results.

    For the mansion tax, I’m interested in the mechanics of how it will be applied over four administrations each responsible for property taxes – and one of which doesn’t use council tax.

    How will it work?

  25. Some (but probably few because it is about Scotland) might find this interesting.

    I was looking at past Scottish Westminster votes and I found this table;

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Scotland#The_House_of_Commons

    What I found interesting was that if you look at the 79 result which many see as the SNP being demolished because they brought down a Labour Government, it turns out the Tories gained as much as Labour.

    True the SNP dropped from 30% to 17%, a huge hit, but Labour only picked up half of that with the Tories the other main beneficiary.

    As I’ve periodically pointed out in the past FPTP means that although people write off the Tories in Scotland, more Pandas etc., they still regularly get a quarter of the vote and how they vote especially tactically can make quite a difference.

    It will be interesting to see if Lord Ashcrofts polling next week shows signs of Tory anti Labour tactical voting and how the press and Party’s might react to that.

    I could certainly see Labour point to it to reinforce the vote SNP get Tory line aiming it at traditional Labour voters.

    Peter.

  26. Phil

    Yes I saw that and thought it was fairly shoddy. It was as near to an example of what Anthony calls push polling[1] as we normally see. However many Londoners will be well aware of the details of the Mansion Tax and most of the response seems to have been purely partisan. The ES didn’t release till a week after the fieldwork, presumably to keep the topic on the boil.

    That doesn’t stop Murphy’s grandstanding (especially the “I’ll raise you 1,000 nurses” aspect) being tactless in two different places however. But I suppose he feels that whatever he does that goes wrong will be blamed on Miliband, while any thing not completely disastrous for Labour in Scotland will be credited to him.

    [1] That is something intended to actually alter the opinion of the respondent rather than just get the desired response from them.

  27. I’ve seen a fair bit of discussion on the fact that in May the combined Lab/Con vote might be below 70% and indeed could drop below two thirds, but what about Scotland?

    Any predictions for the combined Lab/Con vote shares North & South of the border ( and which party gets what!)

    Peter.

  28. @OldNat

    With over 3 months to go to polling day, I’m sure that Labour is perfectly capable itself of getting across what exactly it is proposing in terms of explaining the impact of the mansion tax on London and debunking the various myths. I just refuse to take polls (and the headlines they are intended to generate) seriously when they are so clearly designed to mislead. A snap response to a misleadingly worded question counts for nothing. I think your “probably not by much I guess” was the correct interpretation.

  29. Phil Haines

    But what about explaining how the mansion tax will operate outside London – especially in the devolved nations.

    If it is a UK tax, it has to be equitably applied.

  30. I’ve just had a thought about the TV Leaders Debates. Now the broadcasters seem to be extending invitations to ever growing numbers, seven at the last count and still rising if the DUP get asked, what about Myleene Klass? Couldn’t she represent the Mansion Taxpayers Support Group?

    I bet she’d give old Miliband a pasting again and Cameron would be pleased.
    :-)

  31. @ROSIEANDDAISIE

    ‘The GE will be won [I am stating the obvious] seat by seat with voting having a localised variation on a national mean.
    The main groups are not really PRO anyone – they are anti either Tory or Labour.
    My own view, based on polling, is that the ABT block is larger than the ABL block. This will also mean quite a few Lib Dems survive, against the odds, because they have the potential to fit into both camps.’

    That certainly fits the case in my LD-Con marginal constituency. Lord Ashcroft’s polling showed that in Lewes, Norman Baker takes tactical Labour votes which bump him up from several % points behind the Tory candidate to being comfortably ahead … IIRC from about 27% to 35%.

  32. I know we are psephologists (whatever they are) here and don’t go for anecdotal evidence, but I have been quite surprised recently by the number of people around the constituency who have told me that they voted UKIP in the by-election but intend to vote Conservative in the General Election on the grounds that this time they will be voting for a government.

    I am beginning to revise my opinion that Carswell is a dead cert to retain Clacton for UKIP. I still think it is the most likely outcome, but it could be more interesting than I thought at one time.

    This could also be a factor in other seats UKIP are hoping to win.

  33. oldnat

    “Phil Haines

    But what about explaining how the mansion tax will operate outside London – especially in the devolved nations.

    If it is a UK tax, it has to be equitably applied.

    I am unclear why you keep asking Phil this question: it hardly fits the purpose of the site and I doubt if Phil is the acknowledged expert in the field.

    If you really care ask Ed Balls.

  34. @Norbold

    Interesting anecdotes from Clacton, but I’m guessing the people you are talking to would be responding as decided Tory voters if they were asked by opinion pollsters. In other words, they are already factored into the Tory VI of 32-33% and are, in fact, classic by-election one-off protest voters. The key for the Tories, as it is for Labour with the Greens and SNP, is how many of those still saying that they would vote UKIP (or Green and SNP) if there was a general election tomorrow, turn turtle change their minds nearing polling day.

    That’s the $64,000 question that, if people were being honest, rather than wishfully-thinking speculative, is almost impossible to answer.

  35. OHNPOLITICO

    Lead 0.1% Con
    Level pegging I’d say …
    _____

    No no a lead is a lead is a lead. That 0.1% lead can mean the difference between life and death on here…well you get that impression!! ;-)

  36. BatMeister

    A jolly good idea. I would also like to volunteer Rosie and Daisie for inclusion in what, at present, is not a sufficiently widely based panel – I have noted [with incredulity] that pups are not, as yet, represented.

    They both have some very interesting opinions on absolutely everything, which I would be happy to voice on their behalf.**

    So that’s another three chairs please.

    [**I think it would be right for them to do their own one minute introductions, although stopping the little buggers woofing, once they’ve started, is almost as difficult as getting a politician to shut up.]

  37. @Crossbat11

    We do have some ideas though. We can look at the certainty to vote question and also the ‘How likely are you to change your vote?’ questions. Both of which SNP score at the high end, so possibly SNP can be hopeful of their vote sticking. Interestingly , from memory, the party whose voters are less sure that they will not change their mind is the LibDems, which considering how low their VI is seems counter-intuitive.

  38. Unite have just bunged Labour £1.5 million. Watch Cameron weaponize that.

  39. @Roger

    Cheers for that.

    “that’s what you do”

    …it looks a little like it, doesn’t it…sigh.

  40. @Statgeek
    Take a look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2011
    – click on ‘show’ – for every YG poll I think there is a link to the tables, after some heroic efforts excavating them (and correcting erroneous UKIP shares) towards the end of last year.

    Meanwhile, where is Ashcroft’s Scotland bundle? Normal release for his polls is 4pm. Normal day for constituency polls Thursday, he’s been trailing it, but 4pm Thu comes and goes…

  41. Ben Foley

    Ashcroft not releasing them till next week.

  42. Ah ha!!

    Cheers Ben. That’s the idea. :))

  43. @Couper2802

    “””
    Interestingly , from memory, the party whose voters are less sure that they will not change their mind is the LibDems, which considering how low their VI is seems counter-intuitive.
    “””

    Seems straightforward — most of those who’d be willing to change their mind have already done so!

  44. This is an amusing “defence”, by Gary Cahill on Diego Costa who is accused of stamping on an opponent:

    “……….. He’s a handful for a defender. One of his attributes, as well as his skills and scoring fantastic goals, is that he puts his boot in.”

  45. COUPER2802

    It isn’t having the effect I anticipated given their polling lead on the matter.

    Looking like a damp squib at present. I think the Con defence-Wales + weaponise is pretty effective.

  46. Is the Brian Cox defection significant in Scotland?

  47. COLIN

    “Is the Brian Cox defection significant in Scotland?”

    Not much, I suspect, though it should solidify the shift of some ex-Lab Yes voters to SNP – if only in Dundee.

  48. @Roland

    Hedge fund Manager Michael Hintze ‘bunged’ the Conservative party £1,503,500 last year.

    Could that be weaponised too?

    Is that type of donation more to your taste?

    ;-)

    The Unite donation is as legal and valid as Mr Hintze’s.

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