As well as the regular GB poll, YouGov have released new Welsh and London polls this week.

The London polling for the Evening Standard is here and has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. Despite its Conservative mayor London tends to be more Labour than the country as a whole – at the last election the Labour party were two points ahead of the Tories in London, compared to the seven point Tory lead across Great Britain. This means a ten point Labour lead in London is a four point swing from Con to Labour, the equivalent of a one point Labour lead in a GB poll. In other words, the swing to Labour in London is pretty much the same as in Britain as a whole.

The Welsh polling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University is here and has topline figures of CON 23%, LAB 37%, LDEM 6%, PC 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%. Compared to the general election result this is Labour up 1, the Conservatives down 3 – a swing of 2 points (so actually a smaller swing to Labour than in Britain as a whole). Roger Scully of Cardiff University’s analysis of the poll is here.


419 Responses to “YouGov London and Welsh polling”

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  1. CB11

    ” a quest that they pursue more nobly and credibly than any other news organisation I know”

    I find STV more even-handed than the BBC.

    Suggesting that any media output is more noble than others sounds a tad exaggerated – unless you are referring to the hopes of their senior executives that they will be granted nobility!

  2. In true one party systems you end up with an internalisation of opposition, with competing factions in competition with each other.

  3. OLDNAT
    Purley-on-Thames (West Berkshire) result:
    CON – 68.1% (+1.0)
    LAB – 12.5% (-8.7)
    UKIP – 11.9% (+11.9)
    LDEM – 7.6% (-4.1)
    ______

    Oh little ole Purley on the river!! just the other side of Reading fae my neck of the woods.
    ……
    MRNAMELESS
    West Berkshire is not known for its strong Labour heritage.
    ______

    Absolutely correct. In fact excluding London the entire South East has only around 3 or 4 Labour seats.

  4. @Bill P

    I’ll spell it out then. The Government is potentially highly vulnerable to this, because their case for protecting services to the over 65s rests on focusing on the NHS budget and nothing else. However the link between NHS’s problems and the rapid running down of social care budgets in England over this parliament is being widely made now, not just by Burnham et al. So as the focus on services to the over 65s is widened, that claim of protecting overall health budgets clearly doesn’t hold up when care costs are included. It thus has the potential to undermine hitherto fairly robust support for the Government from the age group which polling tells us is most inclined to vote. And the health service is now just about equal top of the list of public concerns, polling tells us, rather than a peripheral issue of little relevance to the outcome of the real poll.

    Is that OK now?

    I say potential, because if statistics showing that spending was broadly stable in the first six years and then fell dramatically in the last four are presented in terms of an overall fall over the last ten, I get the impression that some punches are being pulled that diminish the impact.

  5. I recall the 1970 election when a guy changed his name to Edward John Robert Lambert Heath and stood against Ted Heath as an Independent Conservative. Some people were nervous because at the previous election in 1966 Heath’s majority had been cut to just over 2,000. In the end it did not matter much – the new Edward Heath polled over 900 but Ted’s majority jumped to over 8,000.

  6. Bill Patrick

    Agreed. The governing parties in the devolved nations certainly haven’t lost support while they administered the UK’s budget cuts.

    England’s different choice of domestic governance always makes the political outcomes fascinating.

  7. @ Old Nat,

    Other parties exist in Manchester and could “offer a different competent vision for the future”, yet Labour controls all but one of the 96 seats on the council, which belongs to an ex-Labour councillor who is now an independent. Are you seriously contending that Manchester has a viable multi-party system?

    @ Chris in Cardiff,

    Plaid have moved left as well, once Welsh Labour took up the cause of Welsh language provision a bit and it stopped being their USP. I can’t see Wood going in for a coalition with the Tories or Ukip at this point.

    @ Lurker,

    In true one party systems you end up with an internalisation of opposition, with competing factions in competition with each other.

    *looks at Blair and Brown*

    Hmm.

  8. Can we NOT start another tiresome BBC bias discussion – it’s one of those subjects that long experience on here suggests is completely incompatible with non-partisan discussion.

  9. Interesting take on the election from Ashcroft.

    “But he warned that with the rise of the smaller parties, it was mathematically possible for a party to have an overall majority at the election with a national share of the vote in the 20s”
    ___

    This would only happen if UKIP and the Greens polled well into the teens. It would also probably undermine the legitimacy of a government who won 28% or less of the popular vote yet managed to win most seats.

  10. @R&D

    “Double swingback with triple crossover and a pirouette.”

    5.9

  11. # win a majority of seats.

  12. @ OldNat

    “LordAshcroft says that the SNP surge “is real” – Sky News”

    It is odd that he thought it worth making this statement and even more surprising that Sky considered it newsworthy enough to broadcast. Perhaps there are still people who doubt that anything significant has happened in Scotland. Given that for several weeks the SNP VI has not shifted statistically from 42% it is hardly a spoiler to say that the effect is real.

    That said, I don’t doubt for a moment that Ashcroft’s next batch of constituency polls will be one of the biggest psephological events we witness in this cycle. While there is plausible deniability in patterns extracted from crossbreaks there will be shockwaves when it become apparent that big names are headed for defeat.

    More parochially I anticipate that the modellers are likely to be wrong footed by the findings. In particular, I suspect that the heavy reliance on CVI measures by Electionforecast [1] and May2015 is causing their models to overstate LibDem resilience in Scotland. Thinking about ‘your own constituency’ may give the LibDems a boost in England. But in Scotland it is likely to bring to mind the fact that it is the SNP that has all the chances to sweep away the sitting MPs. So I think that LD supporters should expect to suffer a grim few days next week. In contrast, the bad news for Labour has already been factored into the various projections. Labour don’t enjoy much of a CVI boost, so in this case I expect to see a higher level of accuracy in the constituency projections.

    [1] the focus on CVI has been made rather more explicit in notes that seem to have been added to their site over the last few days. For a while, I have been pondering why their Nowcast Tory VI never seems to rise above 30% (even this week) and the LD figures stick stubbornly to about 10%. This now seems a little clearer.

  13. OLDNAT & STATGEEK

    Do you think we could be seeing a repeat of this sort of analysis again in May?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWs7MEnf2Lw

  14. @RAF

    “Sometimes people do both simultaneously which is a kind of cognitive dissonance”

    I tried believing in cognitive dissonance, but I was never comfortable with it.

    @Unicorn

    I wonder if Ashcroft’s constituency polls will address any existing UNS issues. I hear he’s doing Gordon (very influenced by Salmond and/or the media). Where else? If it’s Murphy’s seat, then that’s hardly run of the mill either.

    Perhaps the problem is that there isn’t a run of the mill seat at present. Every seat that shifts or doesn’t seat will be a benchmark for the winning and losing party. We’re looking to draw a new line of normalcy and no one has a clue where it is yet (and whether or not it will stick around for a second election). All good fun though.

  15. @Allan

    No idea. Current polling says there will be a collection of strops, but maybe less, as so many are retiring from front-line politics.

    Anything is possible, including Scottish Labour pulling a rabbit out of a hat (they’ve done it in the past).

    I’ll try not to predict too much, given that there’s still 14 weeks to go. 14 weeks is a long, long time in polling.

  16. STATGEEK

    “Anything is possible, including Scottish Labour pulling a rabbit out of a hat (they’ve done it in the past).

    I’ll try not to predict too much, given that there’s still 14 weeks to go. 14 weeks is a long, long time in polling”
    _____

    14 weeks is a long time and a lot of wabbits could be pulled out.

  17. Isn’t Purley on Thames in the Reading West constituency? (number 94 on the Labour battleground).

    Labour did very well in Reading in the local elections in 2014 and also in the EU elections, I believe it was one of the few places in the South where they actually did well outside of London.

    Looks like the anti Tory vote here moved from Labour to UKIP. Hmmm….

  18. ok, turnout was dismal so perhaps best not read too much into that one by election

    A Person [email protected] · 1h1 hour ago
    @ReadingLabour so 74% of #Purley could not be bothered to vote :-(

    Reading Labour Party
    [email protected] @rdgresident V cold day, by-election on Wednesday which confused people and some polling stations changed.

  19. @Oldnat

    “I find STV more even-handed than the BBC.”

    If it wasn’t for AW’s encyclical I would be minded to invoke Mandy Rice-Davies.

  20. Ed has a top plan to deal with his Scottish problem. Home Rule 100 days into the next government! They should get a commission together or something.

    I liked Ed at the start of this parliament but its clear he’s going into the election with a losing strategy on very tight polls.

  21. This week’s YG data is looking like the Conservatives have gained 1.7 % and Labour 0.8 % this week vs last week

    The Lib Dems are down 0.9%, UKIP have lost 0.2% and the Greens 1.0 %,

    (BTW the Green vote from 2010 Lab looks the same this week as all of 2015. The loses of 0.5% and 0.4% come from Others and LD respectively.)

    Are we seeing a squeeze on smaller parties for the election?

    How much more can ben squeezed?

    That is the election winning question,,,,,

  22. Does anyone know when Ashcroft will publish his Scottish polls?

  23. Thinking ahead…

    Assuming that there is a hung Parliament, resulting in another election either in the Autumn or in early 2016, who do people think will be leading the parties then?

    Obviously this depends significantly on the nature of the government formed in May, but I’d be interested in your thoughts.

  24. Today’s YG Scottish crossbreak

    SNP 40% : Lab 28% : Con 23% : LD 3% : UKIP 2% : Grn 2%

    Mean of last 19 YG Scottish crossbreaks

    SNP 42% : Lab 28% : Con 18% : LD 5% : UKIP 5% : Grn 3%

    I wonder if, after 3 years of continual politicking over a decision that was really important, Scots voters have developed an immunity to politicians.

  25. Allan Christie @ STATGEEK

    “14 weeks is a long time and a lot of wabbits could be pulled out.”

    And to start a hare running, I’d keep an eye on the Tory wabbit in Scotland – 3 scores of +20 during the last week?

  26. CMJ – imo plenty will be squeezed a steps as a cons nudge up leads to ABTs moving to Labour (in most cases) and then a further Con nudge up from ABLabs and so on.

    Nothing dramatic but just a gentle steady increase.

    Whether now or in a few weeks – not sure; and of course there will be counter trend movements caused by specific events but Lab and Cons higher than now is highly probablle and certainly my expectation.

    70%+ for Lab + Cons with both probably over 35% imo.

    Sorry to repeat but haven’t done so this year I think.

  27. @Old Nat

    I wonder if East Renfewshire might be vulnerable to Cons, if SNP take a lot of the Labour vote. Maybe that is why the switcheroo didn’t happen with Murphy needing his personal vote to keep the seat Labour.

    Hopefully it is a constituency Ashcroft has polled.

  28. @ Couper

    Most of his constituency batches have been published on Thursdays. I suspect he tries to time the release to attract the maximum amount of weekend commentary. Taken together the polls in any one batch are normally based on research spread over a couple of weeks and so the information is not so time-sensitive as for a national poll. Because of this he can choose the release time for his own purposes. (That said, there was also a Wednesday release late last year.)

  29. Unicorn

    “I suspect that the heavy reliance on CVI measures by Electionforecast and May2015 is causing their models to overstate LibDem resilience in Scotland.”

    Interesting. Thanks.

    Given that most of the genuine Home Rulers in the LD seem to have moved to the SNP, and the left-leaning ones to SNP/Lab, it would seem plausible that (outside O&S and Ross etc) the remaining LDs now prefer their Coalition partners.

  30. @ Statgeek

    “I wonder if Ashcroft’s constituency polls will address any existing UNS issues.”

    Whether that is a prior intention or not, the data provide a rare opportunity to look at these matters. I plan to look again to see how the various vote-reallocation algorithms are faring. I fear that it won’t be a very informative sample. Everything will be swamped by the SNP tsunami making it difficult to detect other patterns in the data.

  31. Just asking ?

    Weighted samples

    Yesterday Labour 9 spots ahead of tories = tory 33 lab 33
    Day before Tories 9 ahead = tory 34 lab 33

    As its so close why publish to the first decimal point .I understand MOE.

  32. Politics as it should be

    pic.twitter.com/6Esi6vUeyH

  33. @OLDNAT

    The Yougov Scottish crossbreaks of late have been interesting *caveats apply*, compared to 2010 the recent figures are of course extremely good for the SNP (low 40s)but they are also comparatively good for the Scottish Conservatives (high teens to low 20s). Still poor for Labour but absolutely dire for the Lib Dems.

    2015 in Scotland looks set to be far worse in terms of vote share for the LDs than 1997 was in Scotland for the Tories, who I think will be very encouraged if they are indeed around the 18-23% region right now. Can’t see Labour overtaking SNP before May 7th, but Labour can (and in my view will) close the gap to some degree (e.g. Lab low 30s SNP mid-high 30s on polling day perhaps??).

  34. That should have read why not publish to the first decimal point.

  35. OLDNAT

    “And to start a hare running, I’d keep an eye on the Tory wabbit in Scotland – 3 scores of +20 during the last week?”
    ________

    I think JM better keep an aye on them Tory wabbits.

  36. LEFTY

    Interesting speech by Carney in Dublin-i imagined you smiling :-)

  37. Or better still. and eye lol

  38. Roll A Hard Six

    Naturally things can change over the next 14 weeks – but there are no signs of much changing so far this year.

    I’d expect to see some green shoots of recovery, before predicting that the red roses will burst into bloom. :-)

  39. COUPER2802
    @Old Nat
    I wonder if East Renfewshire might be vulnerable to Cons, if SNP take a lot of the Labour vote. Maybe that is why the switcheroo didn’t happen with Murphy needing his personal vote to keep the seat Labour.
    Hopefully it is a constituency Ashcroft has polled
    ______

    There could be a lot of tactical voting in East Ren and some voters might switch their vote to who is best to unseat JM. Depending on the data it’s something I might consider personally.

    switcheroo didgeridoo a scalp is a scalp.

  40. In your last sentence you state “swing to Labour in London is pretty much the same as in Britain as a whole”
    I thought this rather odd because opinions polls nationwide are showing a 1% lead but in London its 10% lead..

  41. Ken Smith

    The Labour vote was higher in London than the rest of England last time, so a similar swing makes for a higher lead.

    I don’t have the exact numbers to hand.

  42. 07052015

    That should have read why not publish to the first decimal point

    Because Anthony will point at you and laugh.

    You may look at them, making allowances for margin of error, but the innumerate (otherwise known as political journalists) won’t, and will make even more pointless fuss about even more meaningless movements. However even on Ashcroft’s mega-polls of 10,000 the MoE is still +/-1 point (at 50%).

    To some extent it is a matter of convention though. For example all the polls in the recent Greek election:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Greek_legislative_election,_2015

    (you may need to click on “[show]” to make them appear)

    were quoted to the first decimal place, presumably because of the importance of which Party comes first and which clear the 3% barrier. But even at 3% in a 1,000 sample MoE is +/-1 and this is shown in the variations even within the same pollster[1].

    [1] Of which for some reason, there are very many – more than in the UK.Presumably this is what happens when you have high political interest and lots of unemployed graduates.

  43. I don’t normally mention Holyrood issues on here, nut this caught my eye.

    https://commonspace.scot/articles/157/labour-snp-coalition-emerges-on-land-reform-plans

    Land Reform was started by LiS, continued by SNP, and Sarah Boyack (sadly not LiS leader) has indicated co-operation with the Government to drive it forward. Add in the Green/Independent Group and that is a massive majority for radical reform.

    Consensual politics doesn’t have to be boring!

  44. I appear to accidentally be in Labour’s “101 reasons to vote Labour” PPB that’s being shared online. Staring at the ceiling.

  45. “nut” -> “but” ! :-)

  46. Speak of the devil…the rabbit is unveiled:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-31029492

    Is a rabbit though, or just the dead carcass of a rat, dressed up to look like a fluffy bunny?

  47. STATGEEK

    That wabbit has bolted fae the hat once too often. Too little too late and no amount of jiggery-pokery will fool voters into believing Labour are offering real home rule.

    Another wabbit has come out today though…

    “Nicola Sturgeon has said she is not overly keen on being part of a formal coalition with Ed Miliband following the general election. However the SNP leader indicated would be willing to prop up a Labour minority government on a “case by case” basis”
    ___
    Much more sensible approach.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/01/28/nicola-sturgeon-snp-labour-coalition_n_6562738.html?icid=maing-grid7%7Cukt1%7Cdl1%7Csec3_lnk4%26pLid%3D325578

  48. At constituency level, how many potential Green voters are aware, or have been made aware, that a green candidate is not at standing in their constituency? If they were made aware of this, how would that change their voting Intention?

    it seems that with Greens polling as they are, there is potentially a couple of thousand votes going begging which I would normally expect to go to Lib Dems or Labour under normal circumstances

    obviously, this election is far from normal circumstances…

    Have these votes been factored Into constituency polling?

    Is there a list anywhere of seats where greens are not currently planning to stand a candidate?

  49. Yes, I’ve been thinking that SNP would not rush to help anyone very much if they hold the Balance of Power (BOP?) They are likely to be the 3rd biggest party with the two largest parties under 300 seats, even considering if the Conservatives get say 35% and Labour only 30% (which I feel is unlikely). After all, they don’t want what happened to the LD’s to happen to them. So C&S it is then? This is going to be a very interesting parliament.

    As for the 2nd election in say 2016 – not sure that’s going to make a big difference to the situation – depends who is in the hot seat. I feel that the next government will be very weak, bordering on helplessness compared to one with a single-party majority, even including the current one. So whatever goodies they might wish to offer the electorate in the runup to this notional 2016 election might not be possible to get through parliament.

  50. I think the Tories will be quietly pleased with the latest Public Satisfaction survey on the NHS. Satisfaction has risen sharply to 65% from 60 in 2013, despite recent problems reported with A & E. This coupled with Cameron’s small lead on who is most likely to put most money into the NHS seems to indicate its somewhat less of an issue for them

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