As well as the regular GB poll, YouGov have released new Welsh and London polls this week.

The London polling for the Evening Standard is here and has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. Despite its Conservative mayor London tends to be more Labour than the country as a whole – at the last election the Labour party were two points ahead of the Tories in London, compared to the seven point Tory lead across Great Britain. This means a ten point Labour lead in London is a four point swing from Con to Labour, the equivalent of a one point Labour lead in a GB poll. In other words, the swing to Labour in London is pretty much the same as in Britain as a whole.

The Welsh polling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University is here and has topline figures of CON 23%, LAB 37%, LDEM 6%, PC 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%. Compared to the general election result this is Labour up 1, the Conservatives down 3 – a swing of 2 points (so actually a smaller swing to Labour than in Britain as a whole). Roger Scully of Cardiff University’s analysis of the poll is here.


419 Responses to “YouGov London and Welsh polling”

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  1. Couper

    The BA was more factual?

    Did the MSc work with imaginary numbers?

  2. @Oldnat
    Lol!

    @Couper
    In the same or different subjects. I know Economics can be read as an Arts or Science course.

  3. Lefty

    It would be a pretty crap Maths course (or one derivative of Maths) that didn’t deal with imaginary numbers.

  4. OLDNAT
    It’s all semantics, but viewing economists as scientists seems a little bizarre to me.

    Halfway between arts and science, I think.

    Leher doesn’t have an equivalent to this ditty – http://youtu.be/mB97Qe2D4V0 – which I suspect he would have done had he agreed with you.

  5. If Nick Clegg canvasses like that everywhere, no wonder he’s on 31%. Canvassing should go as follows:

    – Got any local or national concerns.
    – Who will you be voting for this time?
    – Who did you vote for in 2010?
    – What do you think of Nick Clegg? (Maybe only for Hallam canvassers)

    Not “*Creepy smile* Can I have a moment of your time?”

  6. Ashcroft’s teasing is very tiresome, but we can comfort ourselves with the excitement of tonight’s YouGov poll. Will the Tory crossover finally cross the Howard Line of three-poll legitimacy?

    @ Hal,

    1. The fracturing of the LibDem support into many directions, none of which are effective in increasing minor party representation outside of Scotland, and

    2. An increase in SNP representation.

    It does not add up to the end of two-party politics.

    If the SNP do as well as their current polling suggests, it will be the end of two-party politics in Scotland! It’s headed the same way as Wales (to bring us back to the thread topic).

  7. Barbazenzero

    I always love your Tom Lehrer links! Always apposite.

  8. Spearmint

    “If the SNP do as well as their current polling suggests, it will be the end of two-party politics in Scotland!”

    We haven’t had two-party politics in Scotland for a long time. The AMS system allowed the legitimate Tory voice to be represented long after their own choice of voting system would have consigned them to oblivion.

    Even in the Westminster aspect, the Tories aren’t polling that far behind their LiS partners.

  9. “Tsipras hasn’t wasted any time:-
    The planned sale of the state’s 67% stake in the main port of Piraeus halted.
    The sale of shares in the Greek Power Utility stopped”

    just cos lending people more money than they can ever repay and then taking their stuff looks like loan sharking doesn’t mean it is.

  10. @ Old Nat,

    I’d suggest a party with one MP and 15 MEPs is not really wielding significant influence. I know they’re in coalitions on some councils, but even so.

    A situation in which there’s no realistic prospect of the governing party being kicked out in an election is effectively a one party state, and that’s true in Cardiff and now in Holyrood. It’s impossible to imagine a Welsh or Scottish government that isn’t comprised primarily of Labour or the SNP- at worst they’d be reduced to minority government or coalition, but the other parties can’t form a coalition together to replace them even if they have a majority between them, so Labour and the SNP are a permanent fixture.

    While Scotland’s Westminster representation comes primarily from another party it can still be considered a two party-state, but if that changes I don’t think it is anymore.

  11. Still getting predictions of Conservatives about 2% ahead on election day and virtual parity on seats, low 280’s. If you are one of the two main parties and you don’t like the SNP, and/or they don’t like you, there’s not much else on offer to get you to 326.

    This looks like the government is going to be extremely weak: It’ll make the 74-79 government seem like a Thatcher landslide in comparison.

    As for Greece: I’d be surprised if Mrs Merkel gives them very much. What a mess the EZ has got itself into.

  12. Spearmint

    “A situation in which there’s no realistic prospect of the governing party being kicked out in an election is effectively a one party state”

    Polling suggests that the present Scottish government will be re-elected in 2016. What will happen in 2020 is unknowable.

    You may want to describe the UK in 1983 as a “one party state”, but any such assertion would be demonstrably daft.

    Democracies regularly change governments that have previously been popular – except in real “one party states” where they don’t have that opportunity.

    Repeating the haverings of Anas Sarwar doesn’t make them real.

  13. Shouldn’t we have tomorrow’s YG by now?

  14. Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · now
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour and Tories tied: CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%

  15. Starting to look like level pegging to me … Anyone think Labour still ahead?

  16. Allan Christie

    You answered my prayer!

  17. Blimey. Two consecutive YouGov polls with Tory leads and now a tie.

    If Labour lead tomorrow will this signify crossover and a swing back to the main opposition party?

    Tory momentum stalled.

    For now.

    Until the next poll.

    Delivers new verdicts.

    Hmmmm.

    :-)

  18. Double swingback with triple crossover and a pirouette.

  19. @ Old Nat,

    I’m charmed by your optimism about the future prospects of Scottish Labour, but I’m not sure I share it.

    You may want to describe the UK in 1983 as a “one party state”, but any such assertion would be demonstrably daft.

    I think “no effective opposition for more than a decade” more or less qualifies. Obviously it’s a time-limited phenomenon, either by democracy or revolution, but it is true that in 1983 the Government could do whatever it wanted with no immediate electoral consequences- and did. (The UK 1997-2006 would also qualify, IMO.)

    Were there other parties? Of course. Did they have any hope of winning? No, which meant the government was free to ignore them and the concerns of their voters. The Lib Dems had parliamentary representation, but Tony Blair wasn’t paying any more attention to their qualms about civil liberties than he was to Ukip concerns about the EU (back when Ukip was still an irrelevant fringe party).

  20. Anybody got the latest poll from Greece? Has Alexis Tsipras crashed and burned yet?

    Early signs not good, I’m told. Troika not happy.

    It will end in tears.

  21. Aw, so close to the Howard Line and yet so far.

  22. I’ve got the latest from Greece. AT talked to ECB but AM not impressed. QE in EU likely to cause FH to FO.

    FFS what’s going on?

    :-)

  23. batty

    Sad tom se anti-Chelski campaign continuing with a bit of innocent ruff-and-tumble and stamping on yer opponents as they have a lie down now, apparently, not allowed.

    Shocking decision.

    I hope Mourinho doesn’t pack up and go.

    Then we’d be sorry.

  24. “sad tom se” is forrun for sad to see for anyone wot can oany read English.

  25. Spearmint
    Voters keeping the same party in power for consecutive elections, because the opposition politicians are really rubbish is a “one-party state”? What an odd assertion!

    I doubt that LiS will recover enough to ever form an effective opposition – though they may turf out Murphy et al and create a real Scottish Labour Party – who knows?

    Alternatively, we might get other Scottish parties offering real opposition, or the Brit Nats in Con/lab/LD/UKIP coalescing into a single force.

  26. Has MOE disappeared now or is it just not fashionable to mention it any more.

  27. Ann

    MOE is still around. In fact Labour are well ahead on it.

  28. ANN

    No its still there-this could really be a Con lead .

    ….or a Labour one .

  29. ……couldn’t be a LD one though .

  30. A new candidate declared in Sheffield Hallam. Mr Steve Clegg is standing for the English Democrats. That’s kind of him.

  31. @Ann In Wales

    People see what they want to see. Or panic and presume the worst from data that shows nothing is actually changing. . Sometimes people do both simultaneously which is a kind of cognitive dissonance

  32. Well that is okay then,I guess.

  33. @RosieandDaisie

    I thought it was absolutely shocking the way that those two Liverpool players assaulted Diego Costa’s foot with their shins, not once but twice. How the referee allowed them to stay on the field was beyond me.

    It reminded me a little of how that Italian defender’s shoulder launched that disgraceful and unprovoked assault on Luis Suarez’s teeth in the Italy v Uruguay World Cup game. Luis’s gnashers have never quite recovered.

  34. @Mr Nameless

    Is he a literal Democrat ;)

  35. @ Old Nat,

    Voters keeping the same party in power for consecutive elections, because the opposition politicians are really rubbish is a “one-party state”?

    It’s when the opposition are rubbish (or politically unpalatable) enough that they’re politically irrelevant.

    For instance, Cameron might win survive the next election, but the UK isn’t currently a one party state because the Tories are repositioning themselves in response to pressure from other parties. That wasn’t true of either Thatcher’s Tories or the first decade of New Labour.

  36. It must be deliberate. It could well swing the result.

  37. @Mr Nameless

    “A new candidate declared in Sheffield Hallam. Mr Steve Clegg is standing for the English Democrats. That’s kind of him.”

    That reminds me of when a candidate changed his name by deed poll to Roy Jenkins when he stood against the real Roy Jenkins in, I think, the Glasgow Hillhead by-election. Didn’t do him much good, if I remember rightly. The real Roy won through.

    Not sure about the real Mr Clegg in May, though.

  38. Yes, the Richard Huggett case is quite famous. He did the same thing in Winchester in 1997. It’s now illegal, though.

  39. battso

    ” Luis’s gnashers have never quite recovered.”

    Nor his form.

  40. @Mr Nameless

    Your post, and my recollection of the Glasgow Hillhead by-election got me digging into the archives. My memory was right; A Roy Harold Jenkins stood for the Social Democrat Party and got 292 votes (0.9%). However, in the context of the Hallam election battle, here’s an interesting bit that I didn’t remember from that Glasgow Hillhead by-election:-

    Source: Wikipedia

    “The SDP took “Roy Harold Jenkins” to court, claiming that his attempt to confuse voters constituted a corrupt practice under the Representation of the People Act. They failed to convince the court.[9] However, the SDP was permitted to draw attention to the position of their candidate on the ballot paper,[10] and did so in a wide variety of ways.[9] Among these was placing volunteers near polling stations on the day of the election, wearing sandwich boards reading “The real Roy Jenkins is number 5″. One of these volunteers was Charles Kennedy, who in 1999[11] became leader of the Liberal Democrats.[12]”

    Reeling back the years to the days when politics was genuinely interesting!

  41. Curious BBC headline. Yes, care spend on the elderly has been cut by a fifth in the decade since 2003-4. But looking at the graph, it’s also true that it’s been cut by a fifth in the last four years, with little change prior to then.

    Is there some sensitivity about the use of 2009-10 as a reference point, such that references to cuts dating exclusively from then have to be avoided?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-31015807

  42. Phil Haines,

    You forgot to include the link that revealed how your post is relevant to polling.

  43. Spearmint

    It’s certainly an interesting concept that a country where the opposition politicians are free to offer a different competent vision for the future, but don’t, is a “one-party state”.

    Accurate descriptive language does actually matter, and you aren’t using it.

  44. Purley-on-Thames (West Berkshire) result:
    CON – 68.1% (+1.0)
    LAB – 12.5% (-8.7)
    UKIP – 11.9% (+11.9)
    LDEM – 7.6% (-4.1)

    Local by-elections are hardly indicative of national swing! However, such changes doubtless also feed into the GB polls, and will make no difference whatsoever in marginal seats.

    Hence my doubts as to whether GB polls are actually worth anything at all.

  45. Oldnat,

    I strongly suspect that the Conservatives were probably the only party to put any effort into Purley-on-Thames. West Berkshire is not known for its strong Labour heritage.

  46. @Phil Haines

    “Is there some sensitivity about the use of 2009-10 as a reference point, such that references to cuts dating exclusively from then have to be avoided?”

    I fear there may be. The BBC, especially with their charter renewal due in 2016, will be very sensitive to accusations of partiality in the run up to , and during, this year’s election campaign.

    The danger is that they will over-compensate and their honest quest for impartiality, a quest that they pursue more nobly and credibly than any other news organisation I know, will tip them into excessive deference to the governing party.

  47. Mr N

    If safe Tory West Berkshire is anything like the safe Labour seats in Scotland in the past, I doubt that any party made much effort!

    My point was that most of those responding to pollsters haven’t paid much attention to earnest party activists either.

    If some Tories or Labour in such a place decided to vote UKIP then a “hill of beans” would be an exaggerated metaphor.

  48. @Spearmint your analysis for Wales the one party state is actually becoming truer as Labour get weaker; in 2007 we almost got “the Rainbow Coalition” LD-CON-PC before the “one Wales” Lab/PC coalition came along; God knows how it would have worked ideologically but they were seriously debating it. However with the prospect of UKIP having between 5 and 8 AMs next time round that’s gone as a prospect as the numbers simply won’t add up

  49. Oldnat,

    I do find it interesting to see (principal) governing parties holding up fairly well in the UK (especially in Scotland) during an age of austerity. One would expect it to be a poisoned chalice, yet even the Tories may yet get close to their 2010 vote share in May.

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