As well as the regular GB poll, YouGov have released new Welsh and London polls this week.

The London polling for the Evening Standard is here and has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. Despite its Conservative mayor London tends to be more Labour than the country as a whole – at the last election the Labour party were two points ahead of the Tories in London, compared to the seven point Tory lead across Great Britain. This means a ten point Labour lead in London is a four point swing from Con to Labour, the equivalent of a one point Labour lead in a GB poll. In other words, the swing to Labour in London is pretty much the same as in Britain as a whole.

The Welsh polling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University is here and has topline figures of CON 23%, LAB 37%, LDEM 6%, PC 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%. Compared to the general election result this is Labour up 1, the Conservatives down 3 – a swing of 2 points (so actually a smaller swing to Labour than in Britain as a whole). Roger Scully of Cardiff University’s analysis of the poll is here.


419 Responses to “YouGov London and Welsh polling”

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  1. If Labour get info power with the SNP, it could be electoral suicide. Just like the LD’S bringing Tories into power. How many English and Welsh voters will thank Labour for bringing the SNP into power?

  2. @ Barney Crockett

    Oh yes, I remember him. A sharp guy, rooted in the Dutch version of Marxism (via many transmissions).

    Once I retire I’ll make a proper English translation of Hegel (I don’t know who will read it, but anyway…), especially the “spiritual animal world” which is pretty (and deliberately) incomprehensible in Geman, but the English translations are just words thrown after each other. I think it is his interpretation of Adam Smith by Hegel, but it has to wait 13 more years.

    He actually called it the “Trick of the Spirit”, which he borrows from Vico (a Napolitean), who called it the “Trick of History”. I prefer trick to cunning. It’s actually very appealing: at some point the source of your success will turn against you at some point and becomes your downfall.

  3. LordAshcroft says that the SNP surge “is real” – Sky News

    Well, I’m relieved to hear that.

  4. HOOF HEARTED

    It’s a good point but one, the SNP are already in power and two, if it’s such a poisoned chalice for Labour to deal with the SNP then NS needn’t worry about EM phoning her in the event of a hung Parliament with Labour as the largest party begging for support.

    You could chuck in a 3rd yin. EM refuses to deal with the SNP and the Tories get back in…not sure how that would go down in Scotland?

    Anyhow best outcome is for minority government and then whoever is in power will be made to work in the interest of all the country.

  5. How can some people edit the content of relatively long pieces on a tablet and I can’t ….

  6. Saw a PEB with Clegg today! How did he hit the highs of 25% in the polls? The LD’s are a busted flush. I have spoke to people that are angry that the LD’s put the Tories into power.

  7. It’s a shame the site doesn’t have a comments policy so that we could be spared reading through multiple posts of various people’s “point of view.”

    Personally I’m not that interested and I’m sure there are forums set up precisely so that people can be swayed/bored/intrigued by such stuff.

  8. @Hoof Hearted

    Firstly, it’s highly unlikely that there will be a formal coalition.

    Secondly, the experience of SNP influence might be a beneficial one.

    So it is difficult to see why England and Wales would necessarily be upset. Presumably you think NI will be just fine about it?

  9. AC, “The SNP are already in power”.

    Not in westminster they aren’t. And what terms will they demand?

  10. OLDNAT
    LordAshcroft says that the SNP surge “is real” – Sky News

    “Well, I’m relieved to hear that”
    ____

    Now now that comment might be contrived as partisan, however I’m also relieved! :-)

  11. NEILA

    He is certainly playing hardball-but that is what he was elected to do I suppose.

    There is a significant date before the 7bn euro Troika tranche-its 4th Feb when ECB review emergency liquidity support for Greek Banks.

    There has already been a significant flight of deposits(1) from Greek Banks. -whose share prices have bombed in the last two days.

    (1) Deposits have declined by between €7bn-€8bn since December from a private-sector deposit base of around €164bn according to Moody’s. -FT report.

  12. @Peter Crawford

    “…..someone pays for crucial information, and it’s bad!?”

    Of course not, and that’s miles away from my point. I am suggesting that the value of the Ashcroft polling information could be enhanced by considering who has decided to commission, analyse, and publish it. In the USA, poll companies are routinely identified with either an (R) or (D) because people are sceptical about whether they should take findings at face value without considering their political alignment. On that established basis, here it would be Lord Ashcroft Polls (C).
    .

  13. Hoof Hearted

    “Saw a PEB with Clegg today!”

    Amazingly, I saw exactly the same people answering the door to Willie Rennie! I wonder if he was tailing Clegg round England. :-)

  14. @ Colin
    Syriza kept on emphasising it’s commitment (aligence really) to NATO – I think it’s one of their cards.

    (It also made impossible the coalition with KKE – which would have been silly as I said earlier).

  15. Colin

    […] I was agreeing with Roger Mexico’s opinion on the matter

    No you weren’t – I didn’t say anything of the sort. If Miliband does get elected, he’ll still be surrounded by the same gibbering Spads and the advisers from PWC et al wanting to put his strings. And all the backstabbers will be demanding their ermine so they can vote against his attempt to reform them away. Fantasies of union barons and secret messages from Moscow are clearly harking back to your distant youth. :D

    As to the Greek government’s refusal to deal with the Troika, instead insisting on going directly to other EU members, that seems to me fairly cunning. It prevents individual countries hiding their responsibility behind the international bodies and also plays up distrust domestically in those places with those bodies.

  16. HOOF HEARTED
    AC, “The SNP are already in power”.

    “Not in westminster they aren’t. And what terms will they demand?”
    ____

    If I knew what terms the SNP (if there are any) will demand then i should not be sitting at home being an anorak but instead be in Bute House.

    I did write my preference would be for minority government and that way all parties have to work together.

  17. Given Ashcroft looks likely to show high SNP numbers, in line with other recent polls, I was wondering how much this by itself has dragged Labour’s national VI down. The Green surge has obviously had an impact but do we have any idea how much the Labour collapse in Scotland has taken off its national number?

  18. Having to read endless sniping regarding other peoples comments makes me feel slightly nauseous.

    It’s a car crash tactic.

    Just saying.

    Wuff wuff

  19. ROGER

    This is what you wrote :-

    “As for the Left stabbing him in the back, well they haven’t so far, despite provocation. If they do it will after the election,”

    I agree.

    I don’t think the Union influence is a fantasy is it ? -unless the Ed Miliband leadership itself is a fantasy.

    And I see no reason why it will diminish when Ed has the levers of spending power.

    Moscow ……..????-who is fantasising now :-)

    I understand Mr T’s reason for trying to avoid the people who actually contracted with Greece for its bailout. It is obvious.

    I’,m just struggling with the concept of refusing to acknowledge the exisence of your mortgage provider , when you can’t make your repayments on time.

  20. @ Colin

    Who is the lender to Greece? It’s a tricky question. Even if Greece is bankrupt, I believe it has enogh money to pay for lawyers who would take apart the no-recourse responsibility of investment banks and the EU (underwriters – it has been tested in the US in the subprime mortgage).

  21. @Oldnat

    Polling is statistics and probability both of which fall within any academic classification of a science.

  22. Laszlo

    I believe the answer to your question-in respect of extant Greek sovereign Debt is :-

    Eurozone countries 60%
    IMF 10%
    ECB 6%
    Greek Banks 3%
    Bank of Greece 1%
    Foreign Banks 1%
    Other Bonds 19% *

    * I’m not sure what this actually means-unless it is Greek bonds packaged inside the bonds of other issuers.

  23. HOOF HEARTED
    Labour proped up by SNP, is a knightmare for 50 million. If Labour do it they will die
    ____

    The current UK population is 64.1 million so that would give the SNP 22% support across the UK.

    I like it.

  24. @NFR

    Probably at least 2%. The SNP were on about 20% in 2010. They’re now somewhere between 40-45%. That a GB VI difference of around 2%.

  25. So people are happy with a series of turn about Governments , Labour with the majority of it’s seats in the North and Tory with most of it’s seats in the South, but a Government including a party that had all it’s seats in the North wouldn’t be acceptable.

    Peter.

  26. “I find it striking that Tsipras is telling the organizations which are due to hand over 7bn Euros in bailout money next month that they have no place in Greece”

    They are handing over your money to bail out the banks who will give them a directorship when they retire.

    Tsipras can say what he likes because it has no connection to the decision process.

  27. If you share a currency, you have to share fiscal policy. If the Germans want to maintain the Euro, which has greatly benefited them, they have to transfer funds to Greece without austerity. If they would rather not, Germany needs to leave the Euro. It is not just the Greeks who want to have their cake and to eat it.

  28. @ Colin

    I should have been clearer.

    There is at least on public issuance of Greek bonds whose details are not public.

    Underwriters use the lemon clauses for getting out of their responsibilities of converting loan debt to bond and one type of bond to another. In 2005 it was challenged at a U.S. district court and a certain Lehman Bros ended up with paying.

    The restructuring of Greek debt almost certainly involved interesting clauses.

    While the IMF routinely prescribes privatisation as precondition of support, it’s against its own rules. This is why all the recommendations are made to be an offer of the recipient government formally.

    It will be a political, geopolitical decision. However, the stakes are high. If Greece is successful to any extent, Spain will follow.

  29. “Labour proped up by SNP, is a knightmare for 50 million.”

    I’d vote for that. I loved Knightmare growing up: one of the best ideas for kids’ TV shows ever.

  30. RAF

    If Social Subjects are a “science”, then so is Mathematics and its sub-groups.

    It’s all semantics, but viewing economists as scientists seems a little bizarre to me.

  31. @ OldNat

    On that criterion all science (including natural science) would fail. Their’a no value free science. Lancelot Hogben was right about that one.

  32. @Rosieand Daisie

    “Personally I’m not that interested and I’m sure there are forums set up precisely so that people can be swayed/bored/intrigued by such stuff.”

    You mean you don’t want to hear “101 reasons why the new Greek Government is doomed” played out by the usual suspects on here, desperate for the Syriza led administration to fail? I know it’s comically predictable stuff, but surely you want to be enlightened by such objective and dispassionate commentary. I mean, bless the poor diddums, they’re only just recovering from the Socialists victory in France two and a half years ago.

    Some grapes can be very sour and the taste can linger for a very long time.

    :-)

  33. @LURKER

    I agree that “It is not just the Greeks who want their cake and eat it” and the rest of your comments about Germany wanting single currency but not single fiscal policy. This has been the fallacy behind the whole Euro project and Germany should leave the Euro (but won’t because it is too good for them).

  34. @Peter Cairns

    I think it’s the constitutional issue that unsettles some in England and in my view a misreading of it. The theory goes that the SNP is a Scotland-only party and that the UK government has to take a holistic view of the interests of the UK when negotiating with the SNP about a greater transfer of powers to Scotland, which it cannot properly do if in some sort of alliance with the SNP.

    The misread is that the compromises made in this scenario would be different to those made in any other scenario, with Labour or the Tories allying with any other UK party.

  35. It is not where the SNP seats are which makes them a toxic partner for Labour. It is the indisputable fact their raison d’etre is the break up of the UK, the country in question. [] Then the SNP would have to become a left party like plaid or sinn fein which could more easily work as a partner.
    I think Ed Balls has ruled out a coalition.

  36. @Bill Patrick

    I loved Knightmare too (as a Dungeons & Dragons geek it was the best show ever). My kids watch it still on Challenge I think.

    Happy memories :-)

  37. Lurker.

    If you share a common monetary policy, with an inflation target “close to but below 2%); and if you require a major part of the monetary union to undergo internal devaluation (ie screwing down costs and wages and effectively going into deflation); and if you then do not inflate your own economy to offset this and raise the inflation rate of the entire union, then I’d argue that you’ve lost the right to make moral judgements about other countries not playing by the rules.

    In the late 90s and early 00s, when German inflation was below target, the periphery countries played their role by allowing higher inflation and effectively giving the depressed German economy a market. Over the past 5 years, Germany has utterly failed to return the favour. It is an absolute disgrace and one that I’d be shouting across the table in words of one syllable if I were Tsipras.

  38. Pah!

    It was nothing next to The Adventure Game. :))

  39. @LAZSLO

    How good to read Lancelot Hogben’s name again. I still have dusty volumes of his Science fo the Citizen and Mathamatics for ? (Cannot rember name and currently abroad) given to me in 1950s. I shall dust them off again.u

  40. @Statgeek

    That game at the end with the Salamander King.

  41. If rUK did want SNP in government then they shouldn’t have campaigned so hard to keep Scotland and the SNP in the Union. It is the price of winning.

  42. @ Tony Cornwall

    mathematics for the millions.

    He also wrote a social programme in 1939 or so that is an interesting reading (I can’t remember the title, and it’s in the attic room and it’s very cold there).

    I used the mathematics for the millions with a 14 years old to maths, because he had no idea of numbers and needed a good mark for the University. He became a statistician…

  43. On the Ed left or right issue, the SNP could be a big help to him. I reckon Ed has more in common with Sturgeon than Murphy. Paradoxically SNP could push the Labour government to the left and so make them more popular in Scotland and Scotland happier in the Union.

  44. Seen as we on on a Saltire thread (with a sprinking of Greece) I am reminded that I heard a Wales poll was cooming out and possible one in London as well.

    Anyone heard anything?

  45. @OldNat
    “RAF
    If Social Subjects are a “science”, then so is Mathematics and its sub-groups.
    It’s all semantics, but viewing economists as scientists seems a little bizarre to me.”

    I have a simple rule of thumb for these matters. If studied at university is the degree course a BA/MA or a BSc./MSc. Of course there are those of us who studied law and got an LL.B. That’s an exception!

  46. @Jim Jam

    There have been a fair few London posts. Fewer Wales ones.

  47. CB11

    No, to be fair I do find it riveting stuff, reading about union “barons” and Greece and Iraq and……… so on.

  48. RAF

    There are also those dissidents who got an MBChB. Bastards thing they can tell us what is good for us!

  49. I have a BA and a MSc – Science is harder but I think the BA was more factual than the MSc

  50. Couper2802

    At least you don’t have a DD!

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