As well as the regular GB poll, YouGov have released new Welsh and London polls this week.

The London polling for the Evening Standard is here and has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. Despite its Conservative mayor London tends to be more Labour than the country as a whole – at the last election the Labour party were two points ahead of the Tories in London, compared to the seven point Tory lead across Great Britain. This means a ten point Labour lead in London is a four point swing from Con to Labour, the equivalent of a one point Labour lead in a GB poll. In other words, the swing to Labour in London is pretty much the same as in Britain as a whole.

The Welsh polling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University is here and has topline figures of CON 23%, LAB 37%, LDEM 6%, PC 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%. Compared to the general election result this is Labour up 1, the Conservatives down 3 – a swing of 2 points (so actually a smaller swing to Labour than in Britain as a whole). Roger Scully of Cardiff University’s analysis of the poll is here.


419 Responses to “YouGov London and Welsh polling”

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  1. As a returned poster,wanted to be first. love to the pups!

  2. “Labour up 1, the Conservatives down 3 – a swing of 2 points (so actually a smaller swing to Labour than in Britain as a whole)”

    More importantly, less than England as a whole – not much point in comparing with Scotland.

  3. Luvly, luvly luvly !! A Welsh poll.

  4. Rosie & Daisie
    Sorry,hope pups are well
    No significant change here,Lab will take seats in London from Con, Con will take seats from LD elsewhere and it will balance out to be 3/5ths of not a lot!
    Still heading for stalemate,I think.

  5. Hmm, great to have regional polling but it tells us… precisely nothing.

    Except that the media can’t report for toffee. Every headline I’ve read about London is about how much better Labour are doing there than elsewhere…

  6. Two Laboury polls.

    :-)

  7. Thank you for the Welsh poll. Makes a change from all things Scotch.

  8. @jasper
    You have to say ‘Scots’ or they get upset.
    Alternatively, aim for the drinks cabinet and I will join you for a ‘Scotch’.

  9. @Neil A

    The swing to Labour in London may be the same as in the UK as a whole but the difference between a 2% lead in 2010, and a 10% lead now, given the number of seats in London could have wider implications.

    The ES reported yesterday that Labour on this swing could pick up 8 seats and the Tories 2 (from the LDs). But that’s a conservative estimate for Labour in my view. There are a number of Tory seats that could fall on a slightly higher swing and I think we’ll see a differential turnout, with the marginals turnout being higher than in heartlands. In the Euros, Labour did better in London that the polls predicted for this very reason.

  10. Cynrychiolaf un o’r etholaethau prydferthaf

  11. I am surprised how high the UKIP VI is in Wales. Where have those come from?

    Returning to the last thread – when I left my local UKIP committee last summer because I feared a vote for Ukip was a vote for Lab, my colleagues on the committee thought I was mad to think Lab could win at the GE. They confused EM’s unpopularity with the Lab Party’s popularity. As a follower of UKPR it was clear to me that Lab were ahead of Con but this was not the perception of my colleagues. I still believe there will be a move back from UKIP to Con but probably not as great as I had expected.

  12. @Neil A

    You know what I mean about marginals – where there was a contest – I know technically there are no marginals per set in a List election.

  13. Given the massive upweighting of minority ethnic (hate that word!) voters, I wonder how accurate that London poll is – even if it is more likely to be better than one that didn’t bother weighting for that.

  14. david in oxford

    “@jasper
    You have to say ‘Scots’ or they get upset.”

    En el otro mano I think they feel most at ease with themselves when upset.

    Hello from the girls by the way.

  15. In most EU countries, left and left of center parties are stronger in the capital than in the rest of the country. The difference is huge in Berlin, Vienna, Amsterdam, Copenhagen and Riga, but it also exists, to a lesser extent, in Paris, Athens, Lisbon, Budapest, Stockholm, Brussels, Dublin and Rome.

  16. UKIP are showing 22% in Cardiff and South Wales Central, second place behind Labour on 38% while the Tories are 3rd on 18%.

    Not sure how concentrated UKIP are in the area but they could sneak Cardiff North from the Tories….surly not!!

    Chwerthin yn uchel (lol)

  17. Dai in Oxford

    I say what I like and I like what I say.

  18. @RAF.

    Yes, all of that is true, but surely that is also built into any UNS calculation of seat changes.

    The reason for the big difference in seats on a relatively small change in lead is just that there are unusual numbers of marginals in the capital.

  19. DAVID IN OXFORD
    @jasper
    You have to say ‘Scots’ or they get upset.
    Alternatively, aim for the drinks cabinet and I will join you for a ‘Scotch
    _____

    I refer to my best mate as Scotch egg and he never complains. Coming to think of it I’ve never heard any Scots complain about being called Scotch although the political correct tourist guide might say otherwise.

  20. TONY CORNWALL
    “I am surprised how high the UKIP VI is in Wales. Where have those come from?”
    _____

    Probably retired economic migrants from Herefordshire. ;-)

  21. When I lived in North Wales they were pretty hostile to immigrants. Especially if they were from England. Or, worst of all, South Wales…

  22. Allan Christie

    It might make sense in Welsh polling, to weight for country of birth. That became a significant guide to accuracy here last year.

  23. AC

    “Probably retired economic migrants from Herefordshire”

    ???? much laughter!

  24. OLDNAT

    I agree. Last census shows 25% of the population in Wales were born outside of Wales although it does vary remarkably from area to area….,Powys over 45% non Welsh born and as low as 6% in some of the valley areas.

  25. I have never been to Cardiff but I gather Cardiff North Is a rather upmarket Tory/Labour marginal and not an area in which UKIP will successful enough to win. The description on here says it’s an upmarket area. All the seats UKIP stand a chance of winning are run-down white working class area’s especially those near the coast. That doesn’t seem to fit the bill for Cardiff North at all.

  26. Phil Haines (fpt but it’s about as Welsh as you can get)

    If the Greens are taking significant former LD votes in Ceredigion that would otherwise have transferred to Plaid, then that could mean that the LDs hold off the Plaid challenge there

    It seems unlikely that Mark Williams would lose Ceredigion with its long Liberal tradition. He increased his majority every election since he stood in the 2000 by-election and had 50% of the vote last time. We haven’t had an Ashcroft poll from there because it is so safe. Admittedly the one ultra-safe Lib Dem seat polled was Hallam which showed Clegg losing[1], but I think we can all agree there are somewhat special circumstances there.

    Admittedly there is the complication that it is a universities’ seat (I reckon there’s 9,000 plus students from the Census, maybe 15%), but even without IVR problems[2], many of the students won’t be Welsh and perhaps unlikely to choose PC even if they have deserted the Lib Dems.

    I mention that not least because a few years back, when Plaid won Ceredigion, their candidate stood under a joint Plaid/Green ticket.

    One of my favourite political questions is Who was the first MP to be elected as a Green?.

    [1] After adjusting the figures so they were calculated in the same way that other Ashcroft polls were: Lab 31%, Lib Dem 30%. I know it suits Sheffield Labour and their barcharts to maintain a “We’re just behind” narrative, but I hope at least Mr N had the decency to tell Mr Coppard the good news.

    [2] There was an increase in electorate of around 10% between 2005 and 2010. There were only minor boundary changes, so better registration of students looks like one possible source.

  27. Also, look folks! ^^^^^^^ Anthony’s finally got a dragon-y Welsh header icon!!!

  28. In the Welsh poll, unlike Lab/LD/Plaid supporters, who are confident of getting a high standard of care in NHS Wales, right-wingers are pessimists.

    56% of Con and 60% of UKIP lack such confidence.

    Yet, when asked whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with their actual NHS Wales experience, 67% of Con and 68% of Kippers were satisfied.

    The triumph of media coverage among the ignorant perhaps?

  29. Roger Mexico
    Cardigan was also held by Labour for 8 years – 1966 – Feb 1974 – when Elystan Morgan was the MP. I imagine Labour’s collapse there mirrors the growth of cultural nationalism also seen in Merionethshire and Caernarvonshire.

  30. “Labour not denying shadow cabinet members have held talks with Sinn Fein about a post-election deal following @GaryGibbonBlog’s top scoop”
    ______

    It’s going to be a funny ole election.

  31. “Chris,

    ” it has the smell of 1983? ……is that anything like Teen Spirit?

    Peter.”

    That would be the 1992 election.

  32. @Neil A – I think this London poll is definitely better for Labour, as they start from a higher base. The swing in London in 2010 was only 2.5%, less than half the national average. If Labour are still seeing an equal swing from 2010 in London as in the UK polls, then I would suggest that this shows Cons are failing to make up any ground in relative terms in the capital.

  33. @Alec,

    But do you regard the 2010 London result as some sort of freak statistical blip that should be expected to revert to the mean. Or was it simply the “new reality” of the City of Immigrants, in which case, with demographics continuing to move in Labour’s direction, perhaps we should expect London VI to continue to move towards them in a disproportionate way – which the poll doesn’t show.

  34. “Not sure how concentrated UKIP are in the area but they could sneak Cardiff North from the Tories….surly not!!”

    Hello from Cardiff North — we’re a prosperous, cosmopolitan constituency that’s Tory-Labour marginal for economic not cultural reasons.

    Oldnat,

    I’d be careful about that 25%, a lot of people are Welsh through and through but in the east are born in a hospital in England. The reason that our voting patterns are closer to a northern English region like the North East than Scotland, isn’t because of them English settlers, but because Wales isn’t Scotland

  35. Roger Mexico,

    Honestly, I prefer 31-28 simply because I suspect it’s more likely to be right. There is absolutely no point counting a single chicken in Hallam, and if Ashcroft has chosen to weight it differently he probably has his reasons – he stands to gain little from bigging up Clegg.

    I’ve spent much of this weekend in three marginal seats – Norwich North, Norwich South and Great Yarmouth – for the unhappy occasion of a funeral. But it has given me some thoughts on the region, which I will elaborate on while I’m on the four hour train journey back to Sheffield tomorrow.

    The Graun is running an article casting some doubt on the Greens’ citizens income. After this and the terrorism policy, they need to be careful that a narrative does not develop.

  36. ” Wales isn’t Scotland”

    Are you sure? Where’s Scotland then?

  37. DW

    Hello from Cardiff North — we’re a prosperous, cosmopolitan constituency that’s Tory-Labour marginal for economic not cultural reasons”
    _____

    Hello from Giffnock in East Renfreshire. Thanks for clearing that up.

  38. I’m shocked at the UKIP VI in south Wales central being so high – like several other posters I’d expect their vote to be higher in coastal and border areas but we shall see.

    The analysis of Cardiff North given here is right and confirmed by Ashcroft polling; UKIP won’t be contenders here and everyone locally expects a Labour win.

    Ceredigion is going to be very odd.

    Mark Williams has, as Roger Mexico said got a big lead but based strongly on a student vote which is likely to significantly reduce. PC after selecting a rather stuffy local lecturer last time with ) English student appeal have now selected the (Birmingham born) writer Mike Parker who will also be very green friendly; however as a non local candidate and non (native) Welsh language speaker he may lose traditional PC votes to UKIP’s Gethin James who is a Welsh speaker……it’s all going to get very confusing. Ceredigion might be one to watch for the lowest % achieved by a winning candidate – although I think the smart money will still be on Mark Williams

  39. Sun Politics [email protected]_Politics 24s24 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Tories still ahead by one: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%

  40. DW

    Agreed that Wales isn’t Scotland, and country of birth may be of less relevance than here, for the reasons you suggest.

    Still, it seems likely that weighting on some form of identity might be appropriate – at least it might be worth testing.

    Perhaps those who identify as “Welsh” or “English”? (both can perfectly reasonably also see themselves as “British”)

  41. @Neil A – but my argument is that London is moving disproportionately to Labour – it’s just a question of which timescale you use.

    London has swung to Labour by 1.5% since 2005, whereas the UK as a whole has swung 1% to Cons over the same time. In fact, the swing to Con in England only since 2005 is greater, at 1.6%, so the swing to Labour in London really is quite a hefty and significant divergence – especially in a region with 11% of the total seats.

  42. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Tories still ahead by one: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%

  43. FUNTYPIPPIN

    Oh you bugger… I went to sleep tonight. ;-)

  44. Allan Christie

    I told you I’d be quicker tonight ;)

  45. so three polls in two days with the Tories on 34 … Could they be edging out of their 31-33 range … Time and the polls will tell, but if they are then that is the real story rather than them being level / 1 point ahead of Labour

  46. FUNTYPIPPIN

    You sure did.

  47. @Alec,

    But from 2010-2015, London’s VI seems to be about average for the UK, suggesting that during a period of continuing immigration and globalisation, along with sky-high birth rates in London’s minority communities, the momentum of 2005-2010 has been (at least temporarily) lost.

    Perhaps it’s the Boris factor. Perhaps (more likely) it’s that this London poll is understating Labour’s real support. But if you were looking at the swings in the immediate aftermath of 2010’s GE I think you’d probably expect Labour’s swing in London over the next five years to be amongst the highest in the UK.

  48. “The Graun is running an article casting some doubt on the Greens’ citizens income. After this and the terrorism policy, they need to be careful that a narrative does not develop.”

    To some derision from @Colin, I noted a few days ago my sense that many of those currently telling pollsters they were Green wouldn’t be best pleased by many of their policies. Cue talk of ‘the wrong kind of voters’.

    I perhaps hadn’t expressed myself very clearly, but @Mrnameless’ comment above helped me to understand what I was trying to articulate.

    My central point really compares UKIP and the Greens. If you take UKIPs central policy platform (or at least, the platform they are perceived to have) and present the key elements to those people saying they support them, I’d guess that most of them would be happy signing up to leaving the EU and reducing immigration.

    For Green, laying out quite a number of central Green policies to their erstwhile supporters wouldn’t, I think, have such a positive effect. A proportion – I’m not clear quite how many – may well find them too radical or different.

    This doesn’t necessarily mean that UKIP supporters won’t drift away, but I’m guessing that their core messaging chimes better with their current followers than the Greens.

  49. Neil A

    “along with sky-high birth rates in London’s minority communities”

    How far is the voting age going to be reduced? :-)

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