As well as the regular GB poll, YouGov have released new Welsh and London polls this week.

The London polling for the Evening Standard is here and has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. Despite its Conservative mayor London tends to be more Labour than the country as a whole – at the last election the Labour party were two points ahead of the Tories in London, compared to the seven point Tory lead across Great Britain. This means a ten point Labour lead in London is a four point swing from Con to Labour, the equivalent of a one point Labour lead in a GB poll. In other words, the swing to Labour in London is pretty much the same as in Britain as a whole.

The Welsh polling for ITV Wales and Cardiff University is here and has topline figures of CON 23%, LAB 37%, LDEM 6%, PC 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%. Compared to the general election result this is Labour up 1, the Conservatives down 3 – a swing of 2 points (so actually a smaller swing to Labour than in Britain as a whole). Roger Scully of Cardiff University’s analysis of the poll is here.


419 Responses to “YouGov London and Welsh polling”

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  1. Interpret this how you will, but the candidate selection for Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath seems to have been taken out of the hands of the local parties.

    Back at the beginning of January, they had short-listed two candidates – a local councillor and a former campaign organiser.

    Now, it seems, one member of the Scottish Executive Committee will join 5/6 members of the GB NEC in London to select the candidate.

  2. @Alisdair

    It’s the other way round a significant % of the remaining LD VI are not sure they will end up voting LD

  3. OLDNAT

    Thanks.

  4. @OldNat

    It’s the ES up to their old tricks.

    Every poll in London on the Mansion Tax shows that it is popular here.

  5. @Couper2802

    Ah, must have misread your previous comment. That is odd!

  6. RAF

    Political parties and their supporters using tricks during an election?

    I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling</strike trickery is going on in here! :-)

  7. I haven’t got the hang of that strike HTML! :-)

  8. Peter Kellner is speaking in Belfast tonight and I’m wondering if these numbers are tonight’s YouGov figures?

    https://twitter.com/ncpoliticsuk/status/560880320858583040

    They don’t correspond to any recent YouGov poll, or any YouGov average I can think of…

  9. New thread

  10. @Oldnat / Colin

    Seeing the Cox defection was a slight surprise in that I didn’t know he was Labour while he was part of Yes Scotland.

    Will it mean much? It might make the odd Labour waverer more towards SNP, but I’m not that sure there are any waverers now.

  11. @Oldnat (RE: Kirkcaldy)

    Are you referring to the Labour candidates, or all parties?

    @All

    I see the media are opting for the headline and the colourful infographics, rather than the trends:

    http://metro.co.uk/2015/01/27/map-this-is-what-scotland-might-look-like-after-the-general-election-5037563/

  12. Statgeek

    The Metro is the sister paper to the ES.

  13. Ah. That explains things. Keeping the London folk terrified. :))

  14. Old Nat,
    Andy Murray through to the final.No one can doubt that Murray is a very good
    tennis player indeed.Unfortunately I find it very difficult to enjoy the performance of a graceless bad tempered man,who swears constantly on court ,as does his girlfriend ,delights in the faults of his opponents and is as
    graceless in victory as in defeat.Sorry,but I watch a lot of tennis and I would never pay to watch Murray play.

  15. @ Ann in Wales
    If Les Dawson had been Les McDawson from Blair Athol, the Scots would have rated him the greatest concert pianist ever born. Just as Lulu was another Maria Callas. Their inferiority complex is deeply embarrassing, in the way they over egg support for Scots performers or sports men/women. None the less, right now the Scottish National party are great in my book.

  16. @AiW

    At least he’s better than nice but dim Tim Henman, a man who beige to a new level (and he actually wins things…)

    The fact he gets upset means he cares doesn’t it?

  17. @Roland

    Erm, yes….we’re always claiming that this time we’ll win the world cup.

  18. @AW

    A few questions

    1. When you say YouGov weights to actual 2010 ID. Do you mean that you have a record of how the person Id’d in 2010? In which case how do you weigh young people.

    2. Are the polls really a snapshot? Because some techniques I.e reallocation of don’t knows, squeeze questions would seem to be trying to predict the GE

    3 On weighting to 2010 ID – wouldn’t this miss real movements of party identity & the more movement there has been the more the movement will be missed.

  19. @Roland

    Arrogance is a national characteristic of the English and that is why they are almost universally dislike by other nations whereas nearly everyone loves the Scots & Irish.

    @AiW

    Bash Murray night is it. I thought this was a politics forum. Murray supported Scots independence btw

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