We have a bumper crop of opinion polls today – as well as the regular twice-weekly Populus poll, weekly Ashcroft poll there is the first of a series of monthly Survation polls for the Mirror. Still to come tonight is the daily YouGov poll and a ComRes telephone phone for the Indy, both due at 10pm-ish.

The three have been published so far are:

Populus – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% (tabs)
Ashcroft – CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 9% (tabs)
Survation/Mirror – CON 31%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 23%, GRN 3% (tabs)

All three polls have Labour and the Conservatives within one point of each other – Populus with Labour one ahead, Survation with the Tories one ahead, Ashcroft with them equal. There is more difference between the reported levels of support for the Greens and UKIP – Survation traditionally give UKIP their highest levels of support and have them up on 23% (this is clearly not just because of prompting, given ComRes, YouGov and Ashcroft also now include UKIP in their main prompt), in contrast Populus have UKIP on 13%. Green support is up at 9% in Ashcroft’s poll, but only at 3% in Survation’s. Unlike ComRes’s online polls (harsh turnout filtering) and Populus’s polls (disadvantageous weighting) there is nothing particularly unusual about Survation’s methods that would explain the low Green vote.

I will update later with the ComRes and YouGov polls.

UPDATE: The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent is out and has topline figures of CON 31%(+2), LAB 30%(-2), LDEM 8%(-4), UKIP 17%(+1), GRN 7%(+2) (tabs). It’s the first time that ComRes have shown a Tory lead in their telephone polls since 2011, and a fourth poll today to show the two main parties within a single point of each other. YouGov is still to come…

UPDATE2: The last of today’s five GB polls, YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%. That’s five polls today, all showing Labour and the Conservatives within 1 point of each other. As we hit the hundred days to go mark we have the closest possible race in terms of vote share, if not necessarily in seats.


297 Responses to “Monday polling round-up”

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  1. Couper

    Quite right. if we’re all ‘better together’ then of course the SNP will have a say in what happens. The only way to avoid that is to have a quick referendum in England and kick Scotland out of the UK………

  2. Uh oh it was the Tories night in the polls but the thread is descending into a tartan tantrum and what’s the kangaroo waffling on about?

    Poor ole Colin will be reading all this and saying…”FFS”

    Good night peeps.

  3. @ Swebb,

    Even if Lab + SNP had more seats than ConLDDUP, Lab would shy away from collapsing the UK govt based on SNP votes.

    That would force Labour and the SNP/Plaid/Green block to either vote for or abstain on a Tory budget. I can’t see that happening- if any of them did it, the other leftwing parties would use it to crucify them. It’s a sort of reverse prisoners’ dilemma where everyone gets a mediocre payoff if they all stand together but anyone who defects gets screwed.

    Plus, as soon as they collapsed Cameron’s government Miliband would get a crack at forming one of his own. If I were Miliband I would very much like to form a minority government and dare the SNP to vote me out. The optics of the scenario where Miliband forms the government first with SNP support are not great in England, but the scenario where Cameron”s government falls apart and then Labour + the SNP swoop in to pick up the pieces isn’t half bad. And absolute worst case scenario, the SNP bring down the government, there’s a dissolution of Parliament and a second election which the Tories win, and Labour can point out to Scotland whose cunning plan just put the Tories back in power.

  4. @Skippy

    If you don’t like social media fair enough. But to say you have been driven off it is a bit unbelievable as you can just use the block button. Both sides have their idiots and believe me Unionist have (more than) their fair share.

    The Yes campaign groups and parties do dominate social media in Scotland. But mostly they are sharing information that is not exposed via the normal channels. So it does make pro-independence people very well informed of the arguments. This will be vital come the GE as people informing others at work or home can combat the establishment bias in the TV and press.

  5. Peter Crawford – 10.59

    Once it appears that the Tories stand a real chance of winning the GE, then UKIP might face melt-down. During the campaign DC will be forced to make some strong comments, or make promises, about the UK’s relationship with the EU in order to bring back some of the Kippers – and will probably succeed. He won’t lose any voters to his left because Tory voters prefer an anti=EU stance to having a Labour government. IMO

  6. Surely the reference to social media was about Labour supporters sick of bad leadership,

    this is the heart of labour’s problem. The syriza win has also galvanised the diane abbotts, jeremy corbyn and john macdonells of this world.

    Mili has failed to inspire the left while being utterly unattractive to the centre.

    I still think he will limp home, but labour had a great opportunity to dominate british politics for 10 years but have spectacularly blown it.

    If the SNP do well, with 20+ seats, a labour majority seems very difficult in the future. I did think the 2010-15 parliament would kill the tory party, but I think it’s the labour party who has most to fear.

    It shows how poor leadership can really damage a party. DC has been quite bad for the tories, but EdM has arguably been worse for labour.

    the growth of these minor parties, ukip, snp, greens shows the stark vacuum of talent, conviction and sheer appeal among the liblabcon establishment.

  7. @ Cooper2802

    I’m OK with SNP in the UK government, but I would advise Labour not to be in such a coalition. Once the current devolution goes through the current arrangements between Scotland and rUK will be unsustainable politically in the rUK (I include Wales, but I don’t know enough about NI). Which essentially means that one of the unionist parties will have to take on the SNP from a government position. The Conservatives have the least to lose there, which can put Labour in an extremely delicate position (siding with the Conservatives again). But if there is a Labour government, then they would have to do it simply because of the rUK, if necessary against LiS.

  8. And Allan ought to have hung on a few more minutes, for this was undoubtedly a night for the Tories. He, at least, may have sweet dreams this evening.

  9. @Barney

    It is Labour people that are angry with Labour. The recent votes on Austerity and Trident and also todays abstention on fracking.

    SNP politicians put up with more than their fair share of threats. But quite honestly I don’t see anything that bad maybe I just follow the right people mainly MSP/MPs, Journalists and Campaigners.

    The ‘Cybernat’ label is a demonising label used against anyone that supports independence but as we all know the 1.6 million that voted for independence are a good natured bunch who believe in hope. You only have to read the story in the Record that Old Nat posted to see the other side of the story which is very violent unionists.

  10. Laszlo

    Aye – just look at how devolution has killed off the SNP threat!

  11. John B

    I think UKIP will certainly get 10% plus and the tories are extremely unlikely to get a majority…i just think 3 months is too short a time to turn it round.

    Having said that, I think labour’s slow melt down in the last year (they were averaging 38% even as late as last March) has been the key polling development in the last 12 months….

    mili’s conference speech, and before that the bacon sarnie incident, have convinced a large section of the public, rightly or wrongly, that the guy simply doesn’t cut it as a national leader.

    I know it’s intensely superficial, but he just hasn’t “sealed the deal”. What coule be fatal for labour, is enough people in Britain simply don’t vote labour because of mili. all the polls suggest that mili is much more disliked than brand labour. If the tories relentlessly attack him, he could be toast.

  12. YouGov Wales poll
    Lab 37% (+1) Con 23% (-) UKIP 16% (-2) Plaid Cymru 10% (-1) Greens 8% (+1) LD 6% (+1)

  13. What is still interesting about these polls though, is that what they continue to show is a drop in the Labour vote. The Conservative vote has still hardly moved. I’m not trying to pretend that the way the polls are going is good for Labour, because, of course, it’s not, but unless the Conservatives can actually increase their vote, they’re not going to win, and so far they’ve shown little sign of doing that.

  14. The lines are being drawn pro-Austerity or anti-Austerity. The election in Greece boosts the anti-Austerity side. But Labour is on the side of the Cons regarding this question, so if voters are choosing the best Austerity Party, they probably are not going to choose Labour. The SNP, PC and Greens have very cleverly formed an anti-Austerity alliance and with the Greek result might just have caught the public mood.

  15. If the Cons are the largest party,i cannot see any other party going in a coalition with them apart from maybe the DUP & that would be a disaster for the N I peace proses.

  16. Wales in UKPR Advanced Swingometer on that poll

    Little seat change – Lab take 2 from LD.

  17. @Couper 2802

    Lab abstain on a moratorium on fracking after the Tories did a sharp U-turn and agreed to a Labour motion to impose stringent conditions on the licensing of fracking areas, making it next to impossible to frack in any urban area, national park or area if outstanding natural beauty.

    So it seems as if fracking is headed for the Tory suburbs…. !

  18. What is still interesting about these polls though, is that what they continue to show is a drop in the Labour vote. The Conservative vote has still hardly moved. I’m not trying to pretend that the way the polls are going is good for Labour, because, of course, it’s not, but unless the Conservatives can actually increase their vote, they’re not going to win, and so far they’ve shown little sign of doing that.

    If the labour vote continues to fall, norbold, the tories can be the largest party without “actually increasing their vote”.

    I think the tories can get to 34%, and i can see labour getting below 30%. with the snp taking 15 labour seats, you can easily see the tories being the largest party, though at 285 seats they don’t have a natural coalition partner.

  19. More on osmosis and Labour strategy (and Scotland)

    As it seems that politically Labour cannot argue against the SNP (probably the shadow of the referendum, the arguments, and the dislike of Labour head office are the main reasons), if they really want to somehow get back, as so many wish or demand, instead of writing down this coming election and/or sticking to current methods, they could have to go personal (you know a la Richelieu).

    To be able to do so, they would have to check all their candidates as if they were from Special Branch, and deselecting anyone with the smallest spot on their background (of course, you have to make some concessions otherwise all your candidates are under 12 months old) and then ignoring all politics, just go after personalities and personal lives with irony, sarcasm, carefully avoiding any righteousness.

    Do Labour supporters really want this? If yes, do it. If not, why do you complain about EM and what great policies are available to beat SNP (is there any?)?

  20. @Norbold

    Depends how much further Labour drops.

    That said, excluding phone polls (which always show Labour lower) Lab’s fall has stabilised at 32-33%.

  21. @ Peter Crawford,

    I don’t think the sudden rise in Green support is down to Natalie Bennett’s fantastic leadership or presentational abilities.

    Labour certainly have problems of which Miliband is one, but the broader issue is that they’re still seen as an incumbent party in an era of profound political alienation (“liblabcon establishment”, as you say). They were in government for thirteen years and the people at the top of the party now were in the last government- they are still, inevitably, the Labour Party that was voted out in 2010, and they can’t not be, because there hasn’t been enough time or personnel turnover to change that. There was no one standing in 2010 except Diane Abbott who wouldn’t have faced that problem (Diane Abbott would have other, vastly bigger problems).

    Neoliberal centrism is really unpopular at the moment, hence the collapse of the Liberal Democrats and Cameron’s lurch to the right. A centrist Labour leader like Blair would be completely screwed in this climate- too pro-immigration for Essex Man, too neoliberal for the Left. I agree the failure to rally and inspire the Left is a problem and a failure of Miliband’s leadership, but I suspect being associated with a party of government would taint anyone in the eyes of the Left. Dennis Skinner had Scots shouting that he was a class traitor when he went up to campaign in the referendum.

    As soon as the European elections happened and people remembered the Greens existed, Labour had a problem. (And actually, even before that with Ukip, Labour had a problem.)

  22. @Laszlo

    The best argument to vote Labour in Scotland is polling like this showing the possibility of the Tories being the largest party. NS has been very clear that Scots want a Lab minority government with the SNP offering confidence and supply, but that depends on Lab winning enough seats in rUK.

  23. Peter Crawford

    “with the snp taking 15 labour seats”

    All we have to go on are the polls. LiS need to make a dramatic recovery for SNP gains to be that low and, lacking evidence, only faith would suggest that.

    With Ashcroft’s constituency polling due soon, it make sense to wait for some indications of how far Scottish UNS is out, before seeking divine guidance. :-)

  24. Peter
    ” you can easily see the tories being the largest party, though at 285 seats they don’t have a natural coalition partner.”

    Yes, that’s sort of what I was getting at. Even if they do get most seats, I don’t think they will get enough to form a majority and then what?

  25. @ Cooper2802

    I mentioned this afternoon that the Syriza prefect of Attica introduced the biggest austerity package in the last two years. But I know about perceptions.

    There hasn’t been real austerity in England – mainly because of the large increases of living standards Up to 2007. If you exclude the cost of borrowing paid for debts from that period (and increased interest rates on unsecured debt for less than five star credit rating) you would find relatively marginal reductions in standards of living.

    If the question is who should pay for it and how and how it could be managed in the future – well none of the parties in the UK came up with an “anti-austerity” policy package.

  26. @ RAF

    I understand the logic, but why would the voters trust?

    Also if they get devmax why should they care (as long as the financial arrangements remain intact).

  27. Rather than a bottom, I see 32 % as Labour’s ceiling, at least under Miliband’s leadership. The Tories on the other hand still have room to increase their vote share if they can get back some of voters they lost to UKIP (5 % out of UKIP’s current 15 % would be enough for a Tory majority and is a feasible target IMHO).

  28. RAF

    “The best argument to vote Labour in Scotland is polling like this showing the possibility of the Tories being the largest party ”

    Might just be that trotting out that old argument just doesn’t work anymore.

    In 2010 Scots swung TO Labour to keep the Tories out – and look what happened.

    Things have moved on since then. Currently, more see the SNP as more likely to protect Scottish interests than LiS if England puts in the Tories, and prefer the SNP to maintain Lab if they don’t.

    If nothing protects us against the Tories in Westminster, maybe constitutional change could.

    In other words, the discussion is differently framed here than the discussion about us from elsewhere.

  29. Lazlo

    No one is offering Scotland “Devo max”.

  30. ‘Rather than a bottom, I see 32 % as Labour’s ceiling, at least under Miliband’s leadership. ‘

    Not true until a few months ago!

  31. OLDNAT: maybe not “Devo Max”, but Scotland already has a special status within the UK and is being offered an even more special status. Surprisingly, the rest of UK appears to agree to that without any major opposition.

  32. Very poor polls for the LibDems today -some LibDems switching to Tories? Though no obvious reason!

  33. There’s nobody on the left for EM to gain in the next 101 days – those who are left by guiding principles (somebody put it like this a few topics ago) will probably not vote against Labour in marginals. There is a high probability of picking up enough votes in places with high congregation of discontented working class. So, the real prize remains the LibDem territory (maybe bordering Conservatives). It’s very tricky because of the contradictory policy requirements.

    The only way is local “interpretation” of national slogans. I don’t know if Labour is doing it, because in my constituency Labour will run home with probably 65%, so no campaigning is expected (even in 2010 the question was: will you vote for us? Yes.Thanks then we won’t bother you.)

  34. Natalie Bennets’s carcrash with Andrew Neil on Daily Politics yesterday should give Labour hope of recouping it losses to the Greens.

  35. @Laszlo

    You think the Tories would give Scotland DevoMax without first stripping away Scottish MP’s voting rights as part of EVEL?

    Also, I think there are many in Scotland who do care about left of centre people and causes in the rest of the UK. It’s difficult to believe so passionately committed to a publically funded NHS, progressive economics, and social welfare while standing aside while the Tories impose their will to the contrary on the rest of the UK.

  36. M Bruno

    “maybe not “Devo Max”, but Scotland already has a special status within the UK and is being offered an even more special status.”

    Well, we have had “special status” (ie not being part of England) due to the Acts of Union.

    Relationships evolve, but it helps to use accurate descriptors.

  37. Before the pro tories on here get too excited it is a 1 point lead only and a 100 days to go….. I think it will be during the 4 week election campaign and how well milliband does in the debates that could still swing it either way….

  38. @ OldNat

    I bet it will be offered in the new Parliament.

  39. @ RAF

    Yes I think the Tories will offer it, and yes with constitutional changes. They will probably put it in their manifesto. Scotland became a competition not only for SNP and Labour, but for Labour and Conservatives.

  40. LASZLO
    I bet it will be offered in the new Parliament.

    If, by “it” you mean FFA, it would raise the intriguing new prospect of an “inverse Greenland” situation whereby when a referendum heralds UK exit from the EU, Scotland could negotiate to stay in!

  41. Lazlo

    “I bet it will be offered in the new Parliament.”

    I’ll be very happy if it is, but I suspect anyone suggesting that possibility actually doesn’t understand what the term “Devo Max” means.

  42. Blimey – I’m starting to miss the Iraq war debates already.

  43. @ RAF

    I don’t know how much one can rely on shared guiding principles. These exist (some of my family – the right one, not immigrant like me – live in Scotland), but people also have values that contradict this solidarity. I think it is context dependent which one would win. The surge in the SNP VI suggest the latter to me.

  44. @Darryl,

    Quite. One day of a tiny Tory lead (which would still deliver a Miliband premiership if repeating at the GE) does not exactly hand the game to the Tories. Experience on UKPR tends to be that after the mirage of movement in one direction, a couple of polls later everything’s gone in some other direction.

    I still don’t think there is much chance of Cameron staying PM. I expect the Tories to edge the national vote slightly, but to be a few seats behind Labour. I expect the next government to be a Miliband led Labour-LD one with either a small majority or acting as a minority with support to some degree from some of the small parties.

    Having said that, the overall direction of travel has been pretty bad for Labour, and if it wasn’t for the idiosyncracies of the FPTP system, they’d be in trouble. It is certainly not the easy win that was predicted a couple of years ago. There are shades of what happened in the last parliament, with the opposition rising to great heights mid-term and then weakly limping over the line when the actual counting starts.

    Of course, the economic environment is actually fairly positive for the incoming government (although international events could once again scupper that). That is a bit of a turn up for the books, really, and may well provide a filip for Miliband in office.

  45. OLDNAT
    I’ll be very happy if it is, but I suspect anyone suggesting that possibility actually doesn’t understand what the term “Devo Max” (FFA) means.

    Play fair. I suspect even Capn. Darling had to look up what it meant afterwards when he agreed with Ms Bird on live TV that the “vow” included it.

  46. R&D

    Just wait till the Ashcroft Scottish constituency polling comes out next week. :-)

  47. @ OldNat

    I know what DevMax means. As I said I’m quite convinced that it will be done coupled with constitutional changes.

  48. this has been a bad set of polling results for labour no doubt. they must be praying they won’t sink even lower.

    Mili has been quiet of late, I think he probably feels very nervous and is in a bit of a fright.

    These are bad numbers for labour 100 days out. the scottish situation is a nightmare. If the SNP make the gains the polls and crossbreaks are suggesting, there is very little chance of a labour majority in the near future.

  49. @Neil A

    “I still don’t think there is much chance of Cameron staying PM. I expect the Tories to edge the national vote slightly, but to be a few seats behind Labour. I expect the next government to be a Miliband led Labour-LD one with either a small majority or acting as a minority with support to some degree from some of the small parties.

    Having said that, the overall direction of travel has been pretty bad for Labour, and if it wasn’t for the idiosyncracies of the FPTP system, they’d be in trouble. It is certainly not the easy win that was predicted a couple of years ago. There are shades of what happened in the last parliament, with the opposition rising to great heights mid-term and then weakly limping over the line when the actual counting starts”

    I agree with all of this, except I think a scenario where the tories get the most seats, at say 285 or so, with labour losing 30 to the SNP could, i stress could, happen.

    the polls consistently show the snp with very large leads over labour north of the border.

    I don’t think Cameron can be PM with 285 seats, without the lib dems’ backing, and I don’t see Charlie Kennedy, John Pugh, Tim Farron et al. meekly agreeing to another LD/Con coalition. I think your judgement is sound that cammie is unlikely to be PM in 6 months.

  50. Lazlo

    If Westminster is going to give us Devo Max anyway, it was a bit of a waste of time their campaigning so hard against the Indy-Lite proposals in the referendum.

    Still, rationality hasn’t been their strong point so far, and their draft clauses for further devolution have started unravelling already, so anything is possible.

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