We have a bumper crop of opinion polls today – as well as the regular twice-weekly Populus poll, weekly Ashcroft poll there is the first of a series of monthly Survation polls for the Mirror. Still to come tonight is the daily YouGov poll and a ComRes telephone phone for the Indy, both due at 10pm-ish.

The three have been published so far are:

Populus – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% (tabs)
Ashcroft – CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 9% (tabs)
Survation/Mirror – CON 31%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 23%, GRN 3% (tabs)

All three polls have Labour and the Conservatives within one point of each other – Populus with Labour one ahead, Survation with the Tories one ahead, Ashcroft with them equal. There is more difference between the reported levels of support for the Greens and UKIP – Survation traditionally give UKIP their highest levels of support and have them up on 23% (this is clearly not just because of prompting, given ComRes, YouGov and Ashcroft also now include UKIP in their main prompt), in contrast Populus have UKIP on 13%. Green support is up at 9% in Ashcroft’s poll, but only at 3% in Survation’s. Unlike ComRes’s online polls (harsh turnout filtering) and Populus’s polls (disadvantageous weighting) there is nothing particularly unusual about Survation’s methods that would explain the low Green vote.

I will update later with the ComRes and YouGov polls.

UPDATE: The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent is out and has topline figures of CON 31%(+2), LAB 30%(-2), LDEM 8%(-4), UKIP 17%(+1), GRN 7%(+2) (tabs). It’s the first time that ComRes have shown a Tory lead in their telephone polls since 2011, and a fourth poll today to show the two main parties within a single point of each other. YouGov is still to come…

UPDATE2: The last of today’s five GB polls, YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%. That’s five polls today, all showing Labour and the Conservatives within 1 point of each other. As we hit the hundred days to go mark we have the closest possible race in terms of vote share, if not necessarily in seats.


297 Responses to “Monday polling round-up”

1 2 3 4 6
  1. Laszlo

    Meaning EVEL?

  2. @MrNameless

    A prediction I assume?

  3. @ John B

    Either that or if it is not agreed, redrawing constituencies.

  4. MrNameless

    Ha Ha!

  5. JOHN B

    I’m guessing two in Fife, Hamilton and Glasgow North.

  6. @Laszlo

    And why do we need to re-draw the Scottish constituencies? Surely all that is needed is that the salaries of the Scottish MPs are reduced in proportion to the work they will no longer be doing……

  7. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Tories lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%

  8. YouGov
    Con 25 (-7)
    Lab 5 (-27)
    LD 2 (-7)
    UKIP 10 (=)
    Syriza 50 (+50)

  9. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Tories lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%

  10. As a Labour Party member I’m growing more and more despondent as the GE approaches. The reality is Lab has ran out of time to turn things around in Scotland (it never had much time) and is now falling behind the Tories nationally on an increasingly frequent basis. I think Lab is set to make net gains of maybe 15-20 seats – meaning the Coalition can carry on with DUP support. The Tories look set to reverse most of their losses to Lab through gains from LDs. There’s a growing sense of inevitability.

  11. Sun Politics [email protected]_Politics 2m2 minutes ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Tories lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%

  12. Crickey….it’s 3-1 to the Tories tonight on the ole polls.

  13. 3-1 lead for the Tories today.

    Still very tight, but a long time since the Tories have led in a majority of the polls on any one day or weekend.

  14. John B

    Ta

  15. Next UKPolling Ave update may well be parity between Cons and Lab.

  16. 3-1

  17. @Allan C

    You beat me on the comment, I beat you on the poll.

    :-)

  18. AC

    It’s difficult once you start to name individual constituencies. My guess is there are around 40 Labour MPs in Scotland looking at the figures and desperately saying “Surely it won’t apply to my seat!”

    I agree, however, that Fife will remain a Labour stronghold. After all, Fife has only been part of Scotland since the bridges were built, and so voting SNP would seem rather strange!

  19. CROSSBAT

    Aye I make it a draw lol :-)

  20. Allan/Crossbat

    I never stood a chance!

  21. @Swebb

    You don’t need to worry about Scotland the SNP will support a Labour Gov’t through probably C&S. What Labour need to do is prevent a Tory majority in rUK.

  22. This will cheer Tories and dishearten Labour, without doubt. Even though everything is desperately tight, since Christmas the signs of Labour easing ahead have been squashed, and there are now signs of Tories nudging past the magical 32% mark.

    My strong suspicion is that the Tories have played an absolute economic blinder by arranging the collapse of the global oil price. There was not feel good factor until fuel rices started to fall, and with petrol likely to be under £1/litre soon, lady luck has handled Cameron a real bonus.

  23. @Funtypippin/Allan C

    I’m the King of the Copy and Paste!

  24. JOHN B

    When I put the cross break figures into the Scotland votes website the map highlighted the 4 Labour seats but doesn’t tell you what seats they are. The chart only tells you the seats that have changed so you could probably work them out. I’m just guessing from the map.

    But I do agree with your comment though and when the Scottish constituency polling comes out then it should give us a clearer picture of what is happening in individual seats.

  25. Do I detect hints of ‘swing back’?

    The can of worms is open ladies and gentlemen. Do please mind the wriggle.

  26. @ COUPER2802

    I’m not convinced about the SNP C&S arrangement- I was keen on it until recently. It is clear that SNP may take a broadly abstentionist approach in the event of a LibLab govt – but if Tories have more seats than Lab, that’s the end of the story – LDs will stay in coalition with Tories and backed by DUP, neither Lab nor the SNP will be able to do a thing about it. Even if Lab + SNP had more seats than ConLDDUP, Lab would shy away from collapsing the UK govt based on SNP votes.

  27. FUNTYPIPPIN……

    “I never stood a chance!”
    __

    It was a bit of a two horse race. ;-)
    ___

    CROSSBAT

    Yeah you were like a lightning bolt tonight. :-)

  28. ALLAN

    Tomorrow night I’ll be quicker on the draw, mark my words.

  29. Couper

    I’d expected the National to carry this story, but was surprised that the Record have chosen it as their splash.

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/spat-on-assaulted–arrested-5048284

    Is this Lab supporting paper carrying the “patriotic party” message too far?

  30. @Swebb – “Even if Lab + SNP had more seats than ConLDDUP, Lab would shy away from collapsing the UK govt based on SNP votes.”

    Why? If this scenario was possible, firstly there wouldn’t be a Con/LD/DUP government anyway – Labour would be in power.

    But if the smaller group did for some reason form a government, the minute Labour felt the polls backed them, they would vote them down and go to the polls.

  31. 8.59, previous thread, in conversation with R&D, before the latest polls were issued, I wrote:

    On the other hand, if it becomes clear over the next three months that the economic upturn, such as it is, is leading to an increase in Tory VIs south of the A57 then Labour in Scotland may collapse even further as Scots give up all hope of ever seeing a government in Westminster which represents them.

    Now it’s 3-1 this evening to the Tories.

    Swebb (10.32) may be right. And if he is, then Labour have nothing to fight with in its battle in Scotland. Their only hope is the promise that DC can be defeated. Without that they have nothing to say. And things are looking grim.

    Not that they’ve said anything so far to Scotland in any case. It’s all been about the NHS in England.

    Now is not the time to start this discussion, but it occurs to me that EM is the first Labour leader since Michael Foot to have little or no knowledge about Scotland. Back then, of course, it didn’t matter; but by God it matters now!

    Gordon Brown, Tony Blair, John Smith — all Scots or with strong Scottish connections; Kinnock’s father (or grandfather?) was a Scot; but EM consistently fails to give any impression of knowing – or caring – anything about life north of the border. Either he will have to change radically in the next few days or the game is up IMO.

    Just a thought…..

  32. @Allan C

    “Yeah you were like a lightning bolt tonight. :-)”

    It has been said of me before, but not in relation to copying and pasting!

    :-)

  33. FUNTYPIPPIN

    ALLAN
    “Tomorrow night I’ll be quicker on the draw, mark my words”
    ___

    Hmm we will see we will see. ;-)

  34. @Statgeek

    Tories in these polls: 34,32,31,31,34

    Lab: 35, 32, 30, 30, 33

    Average (mean): Tories 32.4 Lab 32.

  35. I care only marginally who gets in power as long as UKIP is not part of a coalition, but I really don’t understand this Labour downheartedness.

    Do you think lead comes from some osmosis? I think the leaders are perfectly right that such a tight race risky strategies (like going after the SNP hard, and if necessary unjustly) are not justified – we are talking about an establishment party after all. It’s much simpler to believe in the shy Scottish Labour voter (it may exist – part of my family would be there).

    If differential campaigning works, then it will bring in a Labour government. However Labour will have too keep distance from SNP if it wants to win one more election in this century.

  36. CROSSBAT

    HA lol ;-)

  37. Lazlo

    “the shy Scottish Labour voter (it may exist ”

    I prefer “him/her” to “it” – though the shy Labour voter could be transgender.

  38. “Labour will have to keep distance from SNP if they want to win one more election in this century”
    Correct Laszlo

  39. SWEBB
    @ COUPER2802
    I’m not convinced about the SNP C&S arrangement- I was keen on it until recently. It is clear that SNP may take a broadly abstentionist approach in the event of a LibLab govt – but if Tories have more seats than Lab, that’s the end of the story – LDs will stay in coalition with Tories and backed by DUP, neither Lab nor the SNP will be able to do a thing about it. Even if Lab + SNP had more seats than ConLDDUP, Lab would shy away from collapsing the UK govt based on SNP votes
    ______

    I still think if it’s a hung parliament and the Lib/Dems are depleted then the largest party should run as a minority government and haggle their way through parliament.

    That way every party will probably get something out of the pot.

  40. @OldNat

    The picture is fantastic. I doubt the Record could resist.

    I am at a total loss to understand LiS strategy at the moment. The big media anti-fracking push, then abstaining with Murphy playing keepie-uppy at Pitroddrie instead of voting. Why the obsession with football? It makes no sense.

    As for social media people are just getting angrier and angrier with Labour.

  41. Laszlo

    Agreed – but I guessed right on 55-45, and my gut feeling is that Labour still have not begun the fight back in Scotland; on the other hand as I mentioned in the last thread, Labour start with a 25 seat lead and can afford to go into the election at level pegging or even slightly behind the Tories and still come out as the largest party.

    The difference between 2015 and elections in previous decades is that the largest party may have only 32 or 33% support – and that is not a workable situation for the lifetime of a parliament. Three or four by-election defeats would bring down such a government.

  42. chatting to mates at various levels in the party, the tories seem quietly confident…i think their position in england vis a vis ukip is too weak to retain the number of seats required to be in government, but the blues definitely think a) the economy and b) Miliband is their best card right now.

    EdM, as many have said, is a palpable drag on the labour ticket and it is obvious labour have passed their last chance to change him.

    This election was an eminently winnable one for labour. Indeed only last summer, the odds on a labour majority were touching 5/2 as late as september 2014, so this idea that 2015 was intrinsically hard for labour to win didn’t seem obvious even only 7 months ago.

    Longer term, if the SNP take a large number of seats, say 15 plus from labour in 2015, it becomes very difficult for labour to win a majority in uk elections. any reconciliation of the tories and ukip in england will threaten labour considerably.

    Mili could end up destroying, among many other factors, the labour party.

  43. @ Alec
    It all hangs on whether SNP is prepared to vote on most UK legislation or only matters directly impacting Scotland. If SNP is only going to do the latter then even when LabSNP > ConLDDUP it doesn’t follow that you’ll get a Lab govt. As ConLDDUP could outvote Lab on its own on most matters (as SNP would abstain).
    Then, say Lab were to find itself ahead in the polls in 2017, it would have to rely on SNP to defeat the government in a confidence motion – something the Tory press would use to beat Labour with forever and a day.

  44. Wonder if the Cons can manage to keep their lead for more than a single day this week.

  45. “social media people getting angrier and angrier with Labour”
    No change here. There was another call for me to be killed on Facebook last week and I am sure it is much more so for J Murphy etc.
    The nature of the cyber-nats is to drive others from the internet. The signs have been pretty clear on here for some time…or am I mistaken

  46. Cybernats drove me from Social media. They are very very vicious and send all sorts of threats about IP addresses and ruining your life via “doxxing”. Scary stuff.

  47. @Barney Crockett
    @Lazlo

    I am not sure I understand your point.

    Unless you are suggesting that the SNP should not be part of a UK government which seems a strange stance as Labour is the party that campaigned to keep Scotland and the SNP in the union.

  48. swebb

    “even when LabSNP > ConLDDUP it doesn’t follow that you’ll get a Lab govt.”

    I think you are confusing governing with legislating. If a Lab govt couldn’t pass some legislating affecting England only, why would that mean that they couldn’t govern?

  49. @SWEBB

    If Lab + SNP + PC +Greens + SDLP > than Con + UKIP + DUP.

    With the LIbDems possibly deciding which grouping to back.
    Fascinating.

  50. BC
    Surely the reference to social media was about Labour supporters sick of bad leadership, not about SNP and other non-Labour folk having their say. Or are Labourites the only ones allowed to express their views?

1 2 3 4 6