We have a bumper crop of opinion polls today – as well as the regular twice-weekly Populus poll, weekly Ashcroft poll there is the first of a series of monthly Survation polls for the Mirror. Still to come tonight is the daily YouGov poll and a ComRes telephone phone for the Indy, both due at 10pm-ish.

The three have been published so far are:

Populus – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% (tabs)
Ashcroft – CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 9% (tabs)
Survation/Mirror – CON 31%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 23%, GRN 3% (tabs)

All three polls have Labour and the Conservatives within one point of each other – Populus with Labour one ahead, Survation with the Tories one ahead, Ashcroft with them equal. There is more difference between the reported levels of support for the Greens and UKIP – Survation traditionally give UKIP their highest levels of support and have them up on 23% (this is clearly not just because of prompting, given ComRes, YouGov and Ashcroft also now include UKIP in their main prompt), in contrast Populus have UKIP on 13%. Green support is up at 9% in Ashcroft’s poll, but only at 3% in Survation’s. Unlike ComRes’s online polls (harsh turnout filtering) and Populus’s polls (disadvantageous weighting) there is nothing particularly unusual about Survation’s methods that would explain the low Green vote.

I will update later with the ComRes and YouGov polls.

UPDATE: The monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Independent is out and has topline figures of CON 31%(+2), LAB 30%(-2), LDEM 8%(-4), UKIP 17%(+1), GRN 7%(+2) (tabs). It’s the first time that ComRes have shown a Tory lead in their telephone polls since 2011, and a fourth poll today to show the two main parties within a single point of each other. YouGov is still to come…

UPDATE2: The last of today’s five GB polls, YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%. That’s five polls today, all showing Labour and the Conservatives within 1 point of each other. As we hit the hundred days to go mark we have the closest possible race in terms of vote share, if not necessarily in seats.


297 Responses to “Monday polling round-up”

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  1. Didn’t Survation show a very low Green score last time too? Weird.

  2. Survation Scotland Crossbreak
    GE May 7th how do you think you will vote in May?

    Labour: 22.7
    Cons: 12.7
    LibDems 7.2
    UKIP 5.8
    SNP 51.6

    LibDems are most unsure of their vote ‘Others’ most sure.

  3. In the Survation tables they have this question

    “Q5. In the last General Election 65% of people voted, while 35% of people did not vote. Thinking back to the General Election in May 2010, can you remember whether or not you voted in that specific election?Note: please answer honestly?”

    First time I remember seeing “Note: please answer honestly?”

  4. COUPER

    You beat me to it, however I’ll do the seats.

    SNP…57 up 51

    LAB…1 down 40

    CON..0 down 1

    LIB…1 down 10.

    The biggest shock is the Tories losing all of their Scottish seats.

  5. Again on the Survation tables – we have a new crossbreak for ‘other’ (that would be green/snp/pc mostly) and ‘undecided’. An excellent innovation!

    And immigration is NOT their main issue!

    For undecided it is cost of living and NHS. And for other the NHS is the runaway leading issue.

    Hooray, maybe we can start talking about something else.

  6. Populus – CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% (tabs)
    Ashcroft – CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 9% (tabs)
    Survation/Mirror – CON 31%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 23%, GRN 3% (tabs)
    ______

    I think what the polls are saying is that it’s neck and neck. What will Yougov bring us tonight?

  7. Being a prophet of doom but things are not looking good for Labour. Neck and neck with 102 days to go. They surely need to be further ahead to win?

    And Pressman hasn’t yet unleashed the anti-Miliband press campaign.

  8. @Couper
    Depends on how you look at it.The polls have not changed a great deal since the party conferences in the Autumn. Also the last month – the official campaign period – has tended to favour the Opposition in the past. On that basis, one could argue that the Tories only have two months left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.

  9. @Couper 2802
    “Being a prophet of doom but things are not looking good for Labour. Neck and neck with 102 days to go. They surely need to be further ahead to win?”

    It’s actually the Tories that need to be ahead to end up with more seats than Labour.

    The only poll showing Labour behind has Ukip at 23%. Not very likely is it?

  10. @David

    I think Survation who already stand very close to the polling precipice with their regular over-estimation of Ukip, may need to make some adjustments as their panel appears not to be representative of the UK electorate.

    Populus also need to make adjustments for their continual overestimation of Labour.

  11. This debt cancellation malarkey may catch on, you know. I’ve just served notice on both NatWest and The Woolwich Building Society that I will no longer be repaying my vast and unsustainable loans with them, mainly because I no longer have the stomach to carry on single-handedly bearing the yoke of austerity. I now wish to bloat my state and live, parasitically, off the back of hard-working families who play by the rules and do the right thing. Unlike them, I rarely play by the rules and hardly ever do the right thing. A career in Banking and Accountancy obviously awaits me.

    In one bound, I’m free. Syriza and Alexis Tsipras, I salute you. Where you go, I follow!

    :-)

  12. RAF & GRAHAM

    Stop posturing, it’s doom & gloom from where I’m sitting.

    Like Couper says…PRESSMAN hasn’t even unleashed the forces of darkness and yet it’s still neck and neck.

    Not that I approve of PRESSMANS tactics of course!!

  13. COUPER2802

    I tend towards your view, since the gap between the Tories and Labour has narrowed considerably since 2013. Is this swingback?
    I also think that Tory Governments tend to do better than Labour oppositions during campaigns, with the Feb 74 GE an exception.

  14. CB11

    LOL :-))

  15. @Crossbat 11

    What was the quote….if you owe the Bank £1,000 that’s your problem; if you owe the Bank £1M it’s the Bank’s problem.

    Greece will eventually agree a deal over their debts but it’s likely to be a much better one than last time.

  16. Survation looks pretty bizarre. What could they possibly be doing to inflate Ukip but deflate the Greens??

    @ Chris Lane,

    Since the Tories are static and it’s Labour that have fallen, it seems more like swingaway to me. Still bad news for the Red Team, of course.

    Although England is the battleground that matters, since I fear Sturgeon will crush poor Allan’s dreams and fail to prop up a Tory government. And every terrible poll for Labour in Scotland means they’re doing comparatively well in England.

  17. Chrislane,

    There were also swings against incumbent Tory Governments in the election campaigns of 1959 – 1964 -1987. 1983 saw no real swing either way – though trhis was because of a swing from Labour to the Al;liance in the second half of that campaign. The Tory vote did,however, fall several points in the 1983 campaign.

    AC
    I suggest you check these facts for yourself if you are disinclined to accept my word for it!

  18. @AC
    This is a hope election. People want to feel better.

    Doom and gloom will fail.

  19. GRAHAM.
    Thanks again

    David Cowling has the old definition of Swing, on the BBC website: The national swing quoted for any general election represents the change in the share of the total votes cast between the first – and second – placed parties nationally, compared with their shares in the previous general election.

  20. @Spearmint

    Survation looks pretty bizarre. What could they possibly be doing to inflate Ukip but deflate the Greens??
    __________________________________________

    Maybe this has something to do with it?

    Q16. Please choose who you think this person is? Natalie Bennett
    – Don’t know 85%

    For all our comments about what the impact of what she said over the weekend would be, it seems most people have no clue who she is.

  21. @Richard

    Most of Survation’s panel perhaps.

  22. The London GE poll breakdown…

    Lab 42
    Con 32
    Ukip 10
    Green 8
    LD 7

  23. To briefly return to Greece, ITV News pointed out that ANEL who are now the junior partner to Syriza are in the European Parliament ECR grouping started by David Cameron.

    Perhaps we should be seeing some more solidarity with their European allies.

  24. Has anyone else fed the results of the Survation poll into Electoral Calculus? It calculates UKIP would win ten seats at the GE. Fair enough. All in Scotland.

  25. @CROSSBAT11

    Considering that Greece is following the example of Germany in cancelling debt, since since I believe it was only 60 years ago that half of the German debt was cancelled, it seems to be that Greece is following an excellent example. I seem to recall part of that cancelled German debt was to Greece.

    You might talk to the Germans for advice on how you also can successfully achieve that result.

  26. @Richard

    “Q17. Please choose who you think this personis” Nicola Sturgoen

    39.4% (Scotland 95.5%)

    While Bennett and Wood both score more than 90% in Scotland for “Don’t Know”.

    So Scots tend to know their own? I wonder if Patrick Harvie would have scored higher than Natalie Bennett.

  27. @ Richard

    “Maybe this has something to do with it?

    Q16. Please choose who you think this person is? Natalie Bennett
    – Don’t know 85%”

    Doesn’t explain why specifically Survation would have them so much lower.

  28. JRT
    Germany did not cancel its debt, the creditors did. That is Greece’s problem at the moment. Mr Junker for example says any reduction in debt is not on the horizon.
    I remember A Scargill assuring the miners’ executive that he had the best possible socialist lawyers to defend the union and being told by gnarled M McGahey that it was socialist judges he needed.

  29. Latest ComRes poll
    CON – 31% (+2)
    LAB – 30% (-2)
    UKIP – 17% (+1)
    LDEM – 8% (-4)
    GRN – 7% (+2)

  30. Something else I found interesting:

    “Q10. What is the most important issue for you/issue most likely to influence your vote?”

    The cost of living:

    London 19.7%
    Midlands 17.2%
    North 21.2%
    South 17.1%
    England 18.8%
    Scotland 34.1%
    Wales 39.0%

    Will Scotland and/or Wales end up with worse cost of living issues, based on England’s lack of worry on this point? Note that the highest in England is the North, so it would seem that the cost of living is an issue to the poorest, so it would suggest that Wales and Scotland are having more CoL problems than England.

  31. @ Richard,

    For all our comments about what the impact of what she said over the weekend would be, it seems most people have no clue who she is.

    Given Sunday’s performance that has to be an asset, surely?

    @ Statgeek,

    She’s the First Minister! It would be pretty sad if Scots didn’t know who Sturgeon was.

    Whereas Bennett and Wood are the leaders of minor parties in other nations. And you outperformed the English with Wood, even so.

  32. Mike Smithson tweet

    ComRes Indy phone poll ENGLAND only
    CON 33
    LAB 29
    LD 9
    UKIP 20
    GRN 8

  33. SPEARMINT

    “Although England is the battleground that matters, since I fear Sturgeon will crush poor Allan’s dreams and fail to prop up a Tory government. And every terrible poll for Labour in Scotland means they’re doing comparatively well in England”
    ____
    Now now I’ve never suggested the SNP should prop up a Tory gov but just think it would be a bad day if the Tories were the largest party but the SNP propped up a Labour party who came in second.
    ______

    GRAHAM
    “AC
    I suggest you check these facts for yourself if you are disinclined to accept my word for it!”
    ___
    I look at all the main KPI and not just the VI and the Tories lead on most fronts. That’s where I believe (not hope) the election will be won.

  34. RAF
    @AC
    This is a hope election. People want to feel better.
    Doom and gloom will fail
    ____

    I hope you’re right.

  35. I think for the Cons to be the largest party they will need to be at least 5% ahead as Labour tend to better in the marginals.

  36. Statgeek

    You know fine well Patrick would have scored far higher!
    On the previous thread I wrote (8.55 p.m.):

    Survation Table 45
    Interesting, IMO, that only a quarter of Scots would consider voting tactically – by far the lowest figure in GB.
    Also, Table 42, Natalie Bennet only represents the Green Party in E&W. Had the question been about Patrick Harvey (co-Convener in Scotland), then the figures in Scotland would have been dramatically different. Why ask questions about things which don’t concern the ‘region’ in which you are asking the question? On the other hand, I suppose I was surprised at how few people south of the border recognised Nicola Sturgeon. I will need to be consistent on this!
    And are Tables 47 and 48 referring to the NHS in England, or throughout the UK?

    I wasn’t aware that an other thread had started……

  37. ComRes overall:

    Con: 31 (+2)
    Lab: 30 (-2)
    LD: 8 (-4)
    Ukip: 17 (+1)
    Green: 7 (+2)

    So now we just need a 1 point Labour lead from YouGov to achieve perfect level pegging!

  38. Chrisbristol

    Cons need to be ahead anyway because they mucked up the chance to redraw the boundaries. Labour start the GE with a 25 seat advantage.

  39. 4 polls today… 2 to the Tories 1 to labour and a draw. 2-1 on aggregate.
    Will it be 3-1? will it be 2-2 or another draw leaving us at 2-1 when Yougov come out?

  40. John B

    “Labour start the GE with a 25 seat advantage.”

    Is that a calculation for Eng, E&W, or GB? – and when was it made?

    If the latter, has the change in Scotland changed it?

  41. How long before YouGov declares?

    (I’m trying out the GE vocab, just to give it a dry run. Only 101 days to go….. ……)

  42. ComRes Scotland crossbreak
    Con 14%
    Lab 26%
    LD 5%
    Ukip 1%
    Green 4%
    SNP 50%

    I will leave Allan to provide the seat counts.

  43. COUPER

    “I will leave Allan to provide the seat counts”
    _____

    Much appreciated :-)

    SNP..54..up 48

    LAB..4..down 37

    CON..0 down 1

    LIB..1 down 11

  44. ComRes

    I trust DC to make sure the NHS has enough money -36
    I trust EM to make sure the NHS has enough money -37 …ouch

  45. YG predictions anyone?

  46. Old Nat

    That was the calculation made when the boundary re-distribution failed to take place in 2013 (?). It applies almost entirely to England and is quite independent of what has been going on in Scotland. I seem to remember a discussion on the topic last autumn.

    Basically, the population tends to drop over time in urban seats and increase in sub-urban and semi-rural seats. Labour tend to build up an in-built advantage as time goes by, as their seats tend to be the ones which lose population.

    Remember in 1974 when Newcastle Central had 20,000 electors and High Wycombe 108,000? That was an extreme example, and caused a major redistribution before the 1979 election. That redistribution involved some shenanigans in Cardiff as Jim Callaghan redrew the boundaries of his constituency to keep out a well-off Tory area.

  47. Con 40
    Lab 25
    Lib 6
    UKIP 12
    Grn 11

  48. In a way 2015 will be an interesting election, because it will probably be the last GE with the current arrangements for Scotland.

  49. AC

    Labour 4? And which will they be?

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