The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times survey is up here and has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%.

Most of the rest of the survey dealt with attitudes towards the Chilcot Inquiry and Iraq. Asked in hindsight whether Britain and the US were right to take military action against Iraq support has now dwindled to 25% (down from 27% two years ago, 30% in 2007 and a peak of 66% back in April 2003, the day after the fall of Baghdad). 63% of people now think that the invasion of Iraq increased the risk of terrorist attack against Britain and 54% think it has made the world a less safe place.

Asked about Tony Blair’s role, 48% of people think Tony Blair deliberately misled the public (down 4 points from 2010), 32% think he genuinely thought Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction (unchanged from 2010) – as the years pass, the proportion of people saying don’t know is gradually sneaking up. In a slightly more nuanced question, 29% of people say Blair was essentially correct to warn of the dangers of the Saddam regime, 16% that he misled Parliament but did not intend to do so, 13% that he deliberately misled Parliament, but we should now move on, 24% that he deliberately misled Parliament and should be prosecuted.

Turning to the question of the Chilcot inquiry, 50% of people think the inquiry is worthwhile, 35% of people think it is not. Despite this broad support, only 19% think it will make a genuine effort to get to the bottom of Britain’s involvement in Iraq, 53% think it will be a whitewash. Two-thirds of people think the length of time it has taken to publish the report is unreasonable.


346 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 32, LAB 32, LDEM 7, UKIP 15, GRN 7”

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  1. That Ashcroft is the first poll to show Greens 3% ahead of LDs

    (for the pedants, perhaps ‘just’ the first in 25 years, as if it makes any difference)

  2. Oldnat

    National debt was high at the peak of Empire. By the end of WW2 it was around 250%. Of course, the clever Scots were amongst those who worked out how to do it.

  3. Ben Foley

    The enormous Scottish crossbreak of 46 souls shows SGP 6% ahead of LDs.

    I won’t start celebrating yet.

  4. Lurker

    There may have been a point to the last part of your post. If so, it seems to lack aspects such as relevance.

  5. @Oldnat

    “Anyone know how the parties voted in HoC on fracking?”

    The SNP are saying that Scottish Labour have abstained.

  6. Statkeek

    MP’s voting on suspending fracking until more environmental research had been completed.
    Our MP’s voted 52 forthe motion, 302 against.

  7. Here’s Krugman’s take on the Greek situation:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/26/opinion/paul-krugman-ending-greeces-nightmare.html

    Public spending in Greece is now 20% lower than it was in 2010, which is incredible, but hasn’t helped because the economy contracted even faster.

    He thinks debt write-offs will only provide minor relief and that the only thing that will work is leaving the Euro. But notes that the Greek public isn’t ready for that.

    It’s quite a gloomy conclusion. Tsipras will need mega political skills to persuade them to accept Grexit and it’s likely that he won’t attempt it till a couple of years down the line at which point his political capital will already be diminished through natural atrophy. If only they would just grasp the nettle now and get it over with.

  8. Statgeek

    Yes. Had a look on Twitter and seems that Lab are proclaiming huge victory because Tories accepted an amendment to have developers write some guarantees into proposals, and SNP proclaiming that SLAB abstained on the LD moratorium vote.

    This is going to be a VERY long 100 days!

  9. Anthony

    A Welsh poll tonight? Time to fly the dragon on the thread header.

  10. @TOH

    354 MPs voted? What happened to the other 296?

  11. Statgeek

    Well Murphy was playing keepie-uppie at Pittodrie.

  12. Those MPs who didn’t vote were in the ‘cowards’ lobby.

  13. CMJ

    You forget that sometimes MPs are working away from Westminster – thus the ‘pairing’ scheme.

  14. Old Nat

    Still 102 days to go, I’m afraid. You were too optimistic!

  15. John B

    In that case we need to be told which Tory Murphy was paired with – and what football strip they were wearing! :-)

  16. John B

    “Still 102 days to go, I’m afraid”

    Bugger!

  17. 101 days now actually

  18. Survation Con 31 Lab 30 UKIP 23 LD 7 Grn 3 SNP 5

    UKIP figure makes it a bit odd! Also Greens very low.

  19. Survation poll now out

    England crossbreak

    Lab 33% ; Con 31% ; UKIP 24% : LD 7 ; Grn 4%

  20. Candy

    Anyone who so much as considers thinking that Tsipras is being economically irresponsible should have those 2010 Troika projections that Krugman quotes shoved in their face, and have all the heavenly hosts sing at them in harmony, “Explain! If YOU want to be taken seriously, EXPLAIN!”

    It is quite bewildering how macro-economic ideas that have been utterly destroyed by empirical evidence over the past 7 years keep being peddled as if TINA. The economic media (and, barring Syriza, the political Left) have simply left their posts and refused to ask the simplest and most obvious questions. It’s a failing that 22nd century economic historians will tear their hair over.

  21. The UKIP figure isn’t odd, it’s very normal for Survation to have them that high.

  22. ON/Graham.

    So the combined Wales/Scotland crossbreaks have the Tories several points ahead of Labour?

  23. @John B

    “You forget that sometimes MPs are working away from Westminster – thus the ‘pairing’ scheme.”

    That’s not democracy. That’s a party excuse for not turning up. If you like you and I can pair off and opt not to pay our taxes to balance two of the MPs not attending. :))

  24. ON

    Murphy will probably have a long-standing pairing arrangement with a Tory. Provided neither partner loses his seat, such ‘pairings’ can go on for many years, allowing committee work, foreign ‘fact finding’ trips and even family holidays to be taken, secure in the knowledge that your side’s voting strength relative to ‘the enemy’ is not reduced.
    However, despite a search through various web-sites I have failed to find out who JM’s ‘pair’ is.

  25. ON

    You e read the wrong figures for the England crossbreaks. The actual ones are
    Con 34
    Lab 30
    LD 7
    UKIP 25
    Green 4

  26. Statgeek

    There is much more to an MP’s job than sitting meekly on the green benches and rising to vote when called upon to do so! Committee work, constituency work, media interviews – all of these are quite legitimate uses of time for an MP. And therefore it helps if an MP can be sure that a member of the opposing side will also be involved in similar work at the same time, thus avoiding a change to the parties’ relative voting strength.

    Of course, if an opposition really wants to make life thoroughly miserable for the government, it can pull out of pairing arrangements. That’s what happened, I think, to Labour in the last months of its 1974-79 government, when Labour MPs were brought in from hospital on stretchers, because the whips didn’t know who was going to turn up to vote against the government. At a simply humanitarian level, pairing makes sense!

  27. Graham

    Yes, 101. I was counting May 7, which ought to be counted as Day 0, perhaps.
    Any bets yet on when a government will be formed after May 7?

  28. England crossbreak appears to be Con 33.8 – Lab 30.3

  29. Survation cross breaks in Scotland don’t make pleasant reading for Labour. Only if all the undecideds votes for Labour would they reach the SNP level.
    As I have said before, however, the large number of undecideds indicates how any Scots are playing their cards close to their chests. This might be good for Labour, or course, but might equally be positive for the Tories or the LDs (or even UKIP, I suppose!). And the SNP may well pick up some of those who are, as yet, uncommitted.

  30. ‘how many Scots’ in third line.

    apologies

    In terms of seats, Survation table 8 put into Scotland Votes Westminster indicates Labour on 1, LDs on 1 and SNP on 57.

    Someone on this site is thinking in terms of a downwards curve for the SNP, with them returning to around 10%……. or something like that…… but no sign of that happening yet. On the other hand, there are still 101 days to go!

  31. JB

    One thing about Sots VI which seems obvious to me is that, given the situation, SNP VI is currently at a peak. [It’s hard to imagine “shy” SNP leaners.]

    The big question therefore is how many, if any, undecideds go, in the end, for Labour.

    the follow-up is will some who now say SNP actually stay with that decision.

    On those two answer much will depend.

  32. Survation Table 45

    Interesting, IMO, that only a quarter of Scots would consider voting tactically – by far the lowest figure in GB.

    Also, Table 42, Natalie Bennet only represents the Green Party in E&W. Had the question been about Patrick Harvey (co-Convener in Scotland), then the figures in Scotland would have been dramatically different. Why ask questions about things which don’t concern the ‘region’ in which you are asking the question? On the other hand, I suppose I was surprised at how few people south of the border recognised Nicola Sturgeon. I will need to be consistent on this!

    And are Tables 47 and 48 referring to the NHS in England, or throughout the UK?

  33. R&D

    Indeed! SNP can hardly expect to gain any more support than already seems to be indicated. And surely for Labour the only way is up.

    On the other hand, if it becomes clear over the next three months that the economic upturn, such as it is, is leading to an increase in Tory VIs south of the A57 then Labour in Scotland may collapse even further as Scots give up all hope of ever seeing a government in Westminster which represents them.

  34. Lefty

    Ta for the correct England crossbreaks. (Too many tables!)

    When pollsters ask questions like “Which of the following party leaders would you most trust to pay you back if you lent them a tenner”, I wish they would include the option of appropriate answers like “None of the #######s”.

  35. ON

    Aye. Not the easiest set of data to read.

    Interestingly, when the question was “who would you vote for in your own constituency?” there’s a1% swing from Con to Lab in the UK figures.

    I’ve not seen this sort of difference before. Does anyone know if it’s common for there to be a Con Lab swing with questions like this?

  36. Lefty

    In Scotland the same question produced negative results for Labour. But you are right to notice the effect produced by reminding people that they are not voting in a vacuum but have to decide between real people. My guess is that Labour MPs are, on the whole, better known to their constituents than their Tory counterparts.
    Two reasons: firstly, at present, most Labour MPs have been around longer (cf 1997 – 2001 when more Tories had been around longer); secondly, a much less likely possibility is that Labour MPs are more often in their local papers doing things to help – Tory voting areas are, by definition, less likely to have problems….

    No, I’m not convinced by that either!

  37. Lefty – The obvious answer is that EM is only standing in Doncaster N and is therefore not the local Labour MP…….. Thus Labour figures go up when the local situation is in the spotlight…..

  38. I wonder what kind of people they are at the Daily Mirror, when they ask questions like “Which of the following party leaders would you most like to invite to your house for dinner?”

    I suspect that having dinner parties is more common at party HQ than among the general populace.

  39. The tenner question is ludicrous it is so hypothetical.

    Additionally the obvious answer to me would seem to be “all of them.”

    Why do we insist on being so silly and negative about all aspects of politics? I am no fan of David Cameron but would be amazed if he wasn’t in politics because he genuinely feels his ideas are better for the UK than others.

    It’s very natural for some of us to disagree but everybody seems to delight in accusing all politicians of being completely untrustworthy in every respect.

  40. This tweet is a spoof!

    “Latest YouGov poll is very interesting:
    CON 26 (-5) LAB 13 (-20) UKIP 8 (-6) LD 6 (-3) GRN 6 (-2), SYRIZA 41 (+41)”

  41. ole nat

    I was leaning Pizza earlier on: what has happened to them?

  42. R&D

    You have to have mezze now.

  43. Old Nat

    Re: Dinner

    Of course, they may have meant the meal many of us have a around 1 p,m!

  44. John B

    Could be – though I doubt that the question setters mix in our lowly circles. :-)

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