A quick update on the latest voting intention polls. This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8% (tabs) – more typical figures than YouGov’s Tuesday poll.

There is also a new TNS poll with topline figures of CON 31%(+3), LAB 31%(-4), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 16%(-2), GRN 7%(+2) (tabs). Up until now TNS have tended to release their polls incredibly slowly, often a week or more after their fieldwork was finished, rendering them out of date by the time we see them. Fieldwork for this one however finished on Monday so it’s more timely than usual. The last couple of TNS polls showed Labour leads of 7 points, significantly and consistently larger than any other company. Today’s looks more like other polls. (UPDATE – thanks to those in the comments section who missed something obvious in the TNS tabs that I overlooked! TNS have always weighted by 2010 recalled vote, but they are now weighting by 2010 recalled vote AND 2014 European vote – whether or not this is responsible for their figures coming into line with other companies’s is unclear.)

Finally Ipsos MORI put out their latest Scottish poll yesterday. Westminster voting intentions in Scotland were CON 12%(+2), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 4%(-2), SNP 52%(nc), GRN 4%(-2). We’ve now had three Scottish polls conducted in 2015. The first one from Panelbase showed the SNP dropping four points and raised some speculation about whether their huge post-referendum surge was fading away again. The second from Survation also had the SNP down, but only by two points and this one from MORI has the level of SNP support holding steady. (On top of that, when tables for the Panelbase poll appeared it turned out that the voting intention question wasn’t asked first, it was asked after a question about whether or not falling oil prices damaged the economic case for Scottish independence, so the SNP fall in that first poll may be a question ordering effect rather than a genuine change)


419 Responses to “Latest YouGov, TNS and MORI polling”

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  1. In Panelbase, the VI Q was actually 3rd, not 2nd.

  2. Whereas my comment was 1st.

  3. Desperately in need of some Scottish constituency polling

  4. (Re-post)

    A quick analysis of Yougov’s unweighted samples, comparing 2014 to 2015. Pay special attention to London & Scotland.

    http://www.statgeek.co.uk/2014/09/here/

    It might be me, but I don’t quite see the worth of making a small sample smaller. Cost perhaps?

  5. Statgeek

    I agree. Surely the more complex or idiosyncratic the situation, the more it pays to have a greater sample size? And especially so when the results from that idiosyncratic situation my well have a profound effect on the overall result.

    I would have thought that Scotland, because of its rather peculiar (in the correct sense of the term) political life in the UK context deserves a bit more, rather than a bit less attention. IMO any Scottish sample of less than 500 is not worth weighting (for!)

  6. ‘may well’,

    Sorry

  7. The Electoral Calculus seat predictions for Scotland, based on UNS and the Ipsos Mori poll, are SNP 55, Lab 4, Others 0. Such are result would be as dramatic as that for Ireland in 1918, where SF won all but 4 of the seats (2 of which were for Trinity College, Dublin) in the 26 counties of Ireland that seceded from the UK within 4 years. The likelihood of it occurring increases the nearer it gets to May 2015 without any shift in the polls. Despite the referendum result in Sept 2014, it does not augur well for even the medium-term future of the UK as a single state.

  8. Anthony

    It would be helpful if the UNS seat prediction shown on this site for the GE result now treated Scotland, as well as NI, as a separate country for the purposes of the electoral prediction. A loss in Scotland of 37 seats for Lab, against 1 for Con, based on this Scottish poll result, would mean that Con and Lab would be neck-and-neck in terms of seats, rather than Lab being nearly 40 seats ahead.

  9. Daodao

    You may be correct, If so, my guess, FWIW, is that only a major transfer of powers away from Westminster will save the Union. A federal structure, with even foreign policy and immigration dealt with on an equal basis between the four nations, may be the only solution.

    However, I don’t think that the Union is at present in danger, because the SNP has made it quite clear that it does not wish to force the issue during the coming Westminster parliament, even were it to hold 50 Scottish seats.

    What I find more worrying is the London media’s inability to understand what is going on. Nick Robinson, for example, started his report from Glasgow yesterday by saying “Despite the SNP losing the referendum, they still wish to interfere in English matters”, or words to that effect. But that misses the point. The SNP is adapting to the new situation, in which the majority of Scots and the vast majority of UK want Scotland to be an actively participating part of the UK. He therefore ought to have said “Because the SNP lost, it feels bound to interfere in English matters”.

    The words ‘despite’ and ‘because’ would be in bold if I knew how to do that on this system!

    If the English don’t want the Scots to interfere they must either abolish the Barnet Formula, so that votes on English matters do not effect the Scottish budget, or they must arrange another referendum toute de suite, this time including themselves in the vote!

  10. AW

    Thanks again for the work you do in helping us through the thick fog of political life. But why is my first post still in moderation? Did I say something I ought not to have done?

  11. With the SNP ready to vote on English laws, the question of EVEL will raise its head again.

    I can’t help but think both the Tories and UKIP will use this and raise the spectre of a LAB / SNP coalition over the next few weeks.

    it coud be the rise of the SNP in Scotland has te effect of a right of centre “English” backlash.

  12. Jay

    No doubt that possibility was part of Nicola’s calculations in saying what she did.

  13. Lord Grade in the HoL making what seems to be a reasonably balanced speech on the debates issue is reported by the BBC at http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30926370 with the headline Debates could go ahead without PM says Grade. Not exactly misleading but somewhat lopsided when the key bit of his speech is in the middle of the report:

    Speaking in the House of Lords, Lord Grade – a former chairman of the BBC and ITV – said he understood Mr Cameron’s position and it was up to the other party leaders to explain “in democratic fashion” why the Greens should be excluded.

    “If they drop their principled objections we can get on and the public can have the debates they expect to have,” he said.

    Odd that the headline wasn’t more like: Miliband, Clegg & Farage must justify excluding the Greens from debates says Grade

    Or perhaps not [self-censored]

  14. Quick question for those in the know:

    Under the ‘new’ fixed term parliaments act.. could a minority government call an election whenever they wanted? Or would they have to serve a full 5 year term?

  15. DAVID IN FRANCE

    There has to be a vote supporting it. Not sure offhand of %age required, but that’s irrelevant as a new bill could be passed to replace it with a 1 vote majorities in both houses.

  16. The fixed term Parliament will remain until such time as a majority in the house of commons vote for it to be abolished. However section 2 provides for earl elections, if there is a two thirds majority on a motion “that there shall be an early parliamentary general election.” or a simple majority is sufficient for for there to be an election on a no confidence motion, however there is a 14 day cooling off period whereby after a vote of no confidence the HoC can vote on a motion that it does have confidence (this must make the power of the whips immense)

  17. addendum when I wrote a majority in HoC I meant to add House of Lords this relates to abolishing the Act, however as acan be seen there are mechanisms under which the HoC has complete control of the election date, hence my comment on whips

  18. “There is also a new TNS poll with topline figures of CON 31%(+3), LAB 31%(-4), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 16%(-2), GRN 7%(+2)”

    And it’s not out of date!!

    Now…..On the face of it this is an excellent poll for the Tories and a car crash of a poll for Labour. It could also go down in the carbuncle awards for Labour.

    UKIP down Tories up….Greens up Labour down…Lib/Dems up Labour down.

    Can anyone else spot the trend?

    Alec?

  19. FTPT
    Not wanting to drag up the previous thread but thanks to NORTHUMBRIANSCOT for his info on East Ren. Quite interesting.
    OLDNAT
    Also read your posts on East Ren. Interesting!

  20. Well if we are going to be as obsessed today with East Ren and JM as the Scottish media is with JM continually[1], I suppose I’d might as well put in my bit.

    NorthumbrianScot has explained how Newton Mearns is Scotland’s Barnet. But the Jewish community is still small by UK standards and even in East Ren is outnumbered by the 3,000 plus Muslims. So Murphy bigging himself up as the hammer of the infidel might not not be to his electoral advantage, even if the locals approved, and being seen as pro-Israeli not a complete advantage.

    He may however be better served by the economic make-up of his constituency, but even in the most affluent quintile the SNP are well ahead (SNP 44%, Con 27%, Lab 19%), though the gap isn’t quite as disastrous as among the least affluent (SNP 67%, Lab 27%) which may put even the weigh-the-vote Labour citadels at risk, as Number Cruncher points out.

    The initial -4 approval for Murphy must be a disappointment for him. After all his predecessor Lamont managed a rating of +6 (40-34) when the question was asked in August and with a similar level of DKs (27):

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scotland-opinion-monitor-august-2014-tables.pdf#page=59

    So 34-38 (DK 28) isn’t good and it’s also not necessarily going to improve due to initial uncertainty over a new leader either because of Murphy being already well-known. The only good thing is that most of the animosity comes from SNP supporters (16-56 = -40). Labour[2] (70-10 = +60) and even Conservatives are in favour (48-29 = +19), so there may be ability to squeeze the Tory vote. Party leaders usually have a boost in their own constituency in an election campaign as well, so even on these figures Murphy could be last man standing on the mainland. But then Conservatives might feel that hanging on to their own 30% might give them a better chance of winning the seat.

    The astonishing personal rating for that other well-known newbie, Nicola Sturgeon, is what stands out though. She has been the most popular Scottish politician for a while, but +49 is the something unknown (plus anything is pretty rare). If leadership ratings are as important as we keep on being told (they’re not), the other Parties might as well not bother handing in their nomination papers. Even Labour voters support her by +11 and the Tories only failed to do so by one person.

    [1] Wings recently had an amusing selection of published photos appearing to show Murphy with a halo. I suspect it was mainly due to trying to produce an image that didn’t scare small children (so exactly the opposite treatment to that accorded his UK party leader) by photographing him from below. But the end result was rather messianic.

    [2] On paper he scores better with his own supporters than Lamont (61-21 = +40) but it’s not strictly comparable as her ratings were based on 2011 Holyrood rather than 2015 Westminster and so a different and bigger (31% v 25%) pool to fish in.

    Of course there always the problem that with MORI’s question format “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way [X] is doing [their] job as leader of the [Y] Party?” will get get opponents responding “Yes – because they’re a disaster”, but this is probably rare except among political clever clogs such as ourselves.

  21. “Finally Ipsos MORI put out their latest Scottish poll yesterday. Westminster voting intentions in Scotland were CON 12%(+2), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 4%(-2), SNP 52%(nc), GRN 4%(-2).

    “(On top of that, when tables for the Panelbase poll appeared it turned out that the voting intention question wasn’t asked first, it was asked after a question about whether or not falling oil prices damaged the economic case for Scottish independence, so the SNP fall in that first poll may be a question ordering effect rather than a genuine change)”
    _______

    Another fantastic poll for the SNP and their VI in this poll is actually higher than the latest Holyrood poll which had them on 50%. Astonishing!!

    Also the biased questioning regarding oil prices and then VI in the panelbase poll is obvious and rather subjective in nature.

    I said at the time if people were asked a question regarding the state of the economy when Labour left power and in the case of the Tories, austerity and cuts then both would probably had seen a drop in VI

  22. @Allan Christie

    Sorry to ‘cold water’ your understandable excitement, but I think the only trend in the latest TNS poll is reversion to the mean. None of the topline figures are outside the ‘new’ norm.

  23. STV/Ipsos-MORI have released the Holyrood VI as well.

    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/news/307452-stv-ipsos-mori-poll-puts-snp-far-ahead-of-labour-in-holyrood-vote/

    Constituency – SNP 53% : Lab 24% : Con 11% : LD 5% : Oth 10%

    List – SNP 48% : Lab 22% : Con 11% : Grn 10% : LD 5% : Oth 5%

    Scotland Votes [1] translates that to

    SNP 73 (+4) : Lab 29 (+8) : Con 11 (-4) : Grn 11 (+9) : LD 4 (-1) : Oth 1

    [1] They say they are working on including UKIP in their projection – though I can’t see how they can realistically do that until after seeing the distribution of the UKIP vote this May

  24. “Lab 29 (+8)” should, of course, have read “Lab 29 (-8)”

  25. Statgeek

    It might be me, but I don’t quite see the worth of making a small sample smaller. Cost perhaps?

    No just getting things in proportion. YouGov were getting too many people responding in London and Scotland, which meant too few being included from the other regions. They have changed their procedures so as to alter this and to deal with internal discrepancies in those two regions: too many Tories in Scotland; too few of some ethnic minorities in London.

    Especially as London and Scotland are two of the regions that have their own dedicated polls (despite the Daily Boris refusing to publish the former), there seems little necessity to up their contribution to the daily YouGovs. The main purpose of the polling is the look at the GB-wide figures, so a proper balance across that area means less weighting required and a more accurate picture.

  26. CIDERMAN

    What do you regard as the ‘new’ norm percentagewise?

  27. ROGER MEXICO

    You’re right regarding the Jewish community in East Ren being smaller than that of the Muslim community but his support for Israel does go down well with many supporters in the more Tory’ish areas.

    I live in the constituency and in my area several homes had posters showing support for Israel and their attacks on Gaza.

    Tories are more pro Israel than Labour and it’s in areas like Barrhead JM will lose support. I even think your post show’s his support in the less well off areas are dire although I’m not putting that down to what I’m saying.

    Also many affluent Labour supporters will probably vote tactically to keep the SNP out but it also appears now that there are more working class Labour voters than Red Tories in East Ren.
    …………
    “The astonishing personal rating for that other well-known newbie, Nicola Sturgeon, is what stands out though. She has been the most popular Scottish politician for a while, but +49 is the something unknown (plus anything is pretty rare). ”
    …..

    Just in case anyone missed that part I posted it again. ;-)
    ..

    “. If leadership ratings are as important as we keep on being told (they’re not), the other Parties might as well not bother handing in their nomination papers”

    I disagree with this in the context of the UK election where both Labour and the Tories are neck and neck and it will probably come down to those who are undecided and choosing between EM and DC and on this account DC is more popular and trusted and I think people will vote accordingly on this if nothing else persuades them.

  28. CIDERMAN
    @Allan Christie

    “Sorry to ‘cold water’ your understandable excitement, but I think the only trend in the latest TNS poll is reversion to the mean. None of the topline figures are outside the ‘new’ norm”
    ____

    I’m on about the TNS poll which as you can see from their last poll bucks the mean which is not the norm.

    The only poll that counts is the most recent one.

  29. OLDNAT

    ““Lab 29 (+8)” should, of course, have read “Lab 29 (-8)”
    ______

    Presumably Labour’s lost seats will be their FPTP seats and they will gain on the list as they did in 2011……..or will they?

    Labour’s 22% showing on the lists is obvously going to be a lot weaker in some areas, ie the North East and we could be saying ta ta to the likes of Richard Baker.

    Also with the SNP polling so high on the list I reckon Labour will win less seats then what is being suggested in this poll.

  30. OLDNAT

    Thanks for the STV link. There’s another STV report at http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/news/307347-stv-poll-snp-at-52-as-murphy-fails-to-make-general-election-impact/

    That has the original Westminster VI but also has 2 video clips. The 2nd, 13m long and worth watching, has the Ipsos MORI guy with his take on the poll vs electoral calculus.

  31. @Barbrazenzero

    Of course (as far as I can tell) Farage, Clegg and Miliband aren’t excluding the Greens from the debate at all. Miliband, at least – I haven’t checked for the others, has said he will debate anyone…

    It would be odd if someone who has said they will take part, and who doesn’t actually have any say on who is invited, were required to defend something they don’t support.

  32. Times political correspondent tweet

    “Gerry Adams rules out Sinn Fein ending their abstention in Westminster – no possible confidence & supply deal with a Labour gvt in that case”

    Assuming it’s right, that’s another bit of fun speculation down the drain.

  33. The Sheep

    “who doesn’t actually have any say on who is invited”

    If the political parties just have to do what the broadcasters say, then maybe we should elevate the latter to the “First Estate” instead of their languishing in Fourth.

  34. I think TNS changed their weighting to also weight to the EU election results

    “Base: Voters in the 2015 General Election (a Likely Voter Model based on stated likelihood to turnout and the British Election Study has been applied) – weighted by past vote in 2010 General Election and 2014 European Election”

    They didn’t have that comment last month?

  35. AMBER

    Not looking good for your boss in Edinburgh.

    “LABOUR activists in a crucial battleground constituency have been forced to cancel their annual Burns Supper due to a lack of interest.
    Deputy Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale, local MP Sheila Gilmore and a shadow minister from Westminster were among the speakers lined up for the Edinburgh Eastern fundraising event on Saturday”

    “But after poor ticket sales, the local party executive decided to cancel the supper, promising refunds to those who had booked.

    Former Edinburgh East Labour party chairman Paul Nolan said the event had been a popular fixture in the diary for many years and usually attracted up to 150 people.

    But he said he understood fewer than 50 tickets had been sold and admitted the situation was embarrassing.

    He said: “It is worrying that we can’t get members to come to a fundraising Burns Supper two or three months before an election.

    “If we can’t get the activists motivated, it’s going to be even harder to get ordinary voters to turn out on polling day.”

    “Although once one of safest Labour seats in the Capital, it recorded the biggest Yes vote in Edinburgh in the independence referendum – 47 per cent – and has been represented at Holyrood by the SNP’s Kenny MacAskill since 2007”
    _____

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/labour-burns-supper-axed-due-to-lack-of-interest-1-3668811#.VMBKaflWBt5.twitter

  36. THESHEEP
    Of course (as far as I can tell) Farage, Clegg and Miliband aren’t excluding the Greens from the debate at all. Miliband, at least – I haven’t checked for the others, has said he will debate anyone…

    I must have missed that being reported, but if that is the case, shouldn’t the three of them write another open letter to Cameron [cc OfCom] supporting his stance?

  37. Yes, looks like TNS have changed their weighting. This was the note attached to the Dec poll

    “TNS Omnibus interviewed a representative sample of 1,180 adults in Great Britain between 11 and 15 December 2014. All interviews were conducted as online self-completion. The data is weighted to match population totals for age, sex, social grade, working status, presence of children, 2010 voting patterns and region.”

    Now that says
    “TNS Omnibus interviewed a representative sample of 1,188 adults in Great Britain between 15th and 19th January 2015. All interviews were conducted as online self-completion. The data was weighted to match population totals for age, sex, social grade, working status, presence of children, 2010 voting patterns and region. The voting intention figures were also weighted by 2014 voting patterns and a Likely Voter Model based on the British Election Study was applied. The TNS Omnibus uses the Lightspeed Research access panel as its sample source.”

    this bit is new
    “The voting intention figures were also weighted by 2014 voting patterns and a Likely Voter Model based on the British Election Study was applied. The TNS Omnibus uses the Lightspeed Research access panel as its sample source”

  38. More from the STV/MORI poll – on Smith Commission

    Affecting votes in a putative further referendum?

    55% “makes no difference”
    27% more likely to vote Yes
    12% more likely they would vote No.

    On the reasonable assumption that most of the 27% are existing Yessers and the 12% existing Naws, this seems to be a bit of a non-event, despite the hype on both sides.

  39. Leon Brittan has died.

  40. Richard Candy was right, aftervall!

    “TNS Omnibus uses the Lightspeed Research access panel as its sample source.”

    Looks like Candy was right after all!

  41. New debate proposals (HT NC & TSE)

    http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2015-01-22/bbc-and-itv-bid-for-seven-way-leaders-debates

    “The Green Party, the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru will be invited to join Ukip at two televised leaders’ debates, under new proposals put forward by the broadcasters.

    Radio Times has learned BBC and ITV will offer to hold identical debates featuring seven political parties under the revised plans, which were being put to politicians this afternoon. But the joint debate organised by Channel 4 and Sky News will still be a straight head-to-head between David Cameron and Ed Miliband.”

  42. “There is also a new TNS poll with topline figures of CON 31%(+3), LAB 31%(-4), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 16%(-2), GRN 7%(+2)”
    ——————————————————————————
    “The last couple of TNS polls showed Labour leads of 7 points, significantly and consistently larger than any other company. Today’s looks more like other polls. ”

    ——————————————————————————-
    “And it’s not out of date!!

    On the face of it this is an excellent poll for the Tories and a car crash of a poll for Labour. It could also go down in the carbuncle awards for Labour.

    UKIP down Tories up….Greens up Labour down…Lib/Dems up Labour down.

    Can anyone else spot the trend?”

    ——————————————————————————

    Spot the expert………………

  43. OLDNAT

    Thanks for the debates link. But if the BBC & ITV debates are identical how will the broadcasters ensure they all keep to the agreed script? And won’t the public be bored watching identical debates twice anyway?

  44. R&D – see Richard and others comments and my update above. The change may very well just be due to the weighting change.

  45. “R&D – see Richard and others comments and my update above. The change may very well just be due to the weighting change.”

    Thanks Anthony: no need to polish the “carbuncle” awards just yet then…………

  46. @JOHN DEWAR
    Yes, another Thursday 4pm goes by, and nothing from Ashcroft. What’s happening? Is he getting the pollsters to do more and more constituencies until he gets something that he can use to generate headlines that he likes? i would have thought he would have been happy enough with what the polls are likely to show about SNP support, myself, but why is it taking him so long?

  47. Barbazenzero

    Well, they might be bored with just one. :-)

    A sensible strategy would be to deal with different topics in each.

    England, of course, is being short changed – again.

    They need a debate of their own (which others can always see by tuning into an English regional broadcast) on their own local issues – the ones that the rest of us will discuss before the 2016 elections.

  48. @Reggieside

    “Another general election within a year would seem a likely scenario.”

    Does that mean that we would have yearly GE because I don’t understand why people would vote differently in a second GE. They know now that if they did not vote for one of the major parties we could end up with a minority government.

  49. All Cameron’s Christmases have come at once. He hoped to get the Greens in the debates but have ended up with 3 left of centre parties in two debates

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