A new Communicate Research poll in Tuesday’s Independent puts Labour 2 points ahead of the Conservatives. The topline figures with changes from Communicate’s poll last month are CON 34%(-4), LAB 36%(+4), LDEM 17%(+3). Since April MORI are the only other pollster to have reported a Labour lead in a voting intention poll.

Obviously the poll suggests a movement in support towards Labour from the Conservatives. The Lib Dems are also up noticably, although their 14% level of support in Communicate’s last poll did seem unusually low. The increase in Labour support echoes ICM’s poll last week, although that too might well have been a similar return to normalcy after an anomolously low level of Labour support in the previous poll. The next week should see the monthly polls from both YouGov and Populus, so we should hopefully get a fair idea of any uniform trends that are happening.

Like MORI Communicate do not weight by past vote, only standard demographics. It is highly likely that this produces figures that are more favour to the Labour party. The other two phone pollsters, ICM and Populus, both weight according to past vote and this weighting invariably favours the Conservative party. It also appears to dampen down volatility from month to month.

Since Communicate haven’t been polling regularly since before the last election they don’t have a recent track record to judge by (thought hopefully this poll indicates that Communicate are now producing regular monthly polls for the Independent), but I would expect that the lack of political weighting will tend to produce figures that are somewhat more Labour than Populus and ICM, and somewhat more volatile.


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