We’ve had two new voting intention polls today, and both continue the trend of increasing Green party support. I briefly mentioned the monthly ICM poll for the Guardian earlier on today, which had the Green party up four points to 9%, the highest they have ever registered in an ICM/Guardian poll. Just out is the daily YouGov poll for the Sun which has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 10%.

The ten point score for the Greens is the first time they’ve broken into double figures with YouGov, and in this case it’s pushed Labour down to 30%, the lowest YouGov have shown them at this Parliament. In terms of the Labour position it’s obviously just one poll and all the usual caveats apply, but for the Greens this is clearly part of a broader trend that is being picked up across many different polls. For all the ponderings about what the effect of having the Green party included in the debates might have been, it looks as if they may be getting a pretty good boost from the arguments around their exclusion from the debates. How sticky that support is remains to be seen.


160 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, GRN 10”

1 2 3 4
  1. Two and three halves party politics?

  2. I wonder if DC’s plan was to breath life into Green VI-or is it serendipity.?

  3. I wonder how long it will be before Greens overtake the LDs in the poll of polls.

  4. @Neil A

    “Two and three halves party politics?”

    I love it. Though I’m wondering at what point we just call it 5 halves.

    Could some seats be won with will be one with 28% of the vote?

  5. @Colin

    I think it was DC’s Plan B.

    Fotunately for Lab the Tories are stuck on 32 and the Green surge is unlikely to stick if it is seen as costing Lab a crack at government. We shall see.

  6. I wonder if DC’s plan was to breath life into Green VI-or is it serendipity.

    Of course it’s part of the tory plan. they realise that ukip isn’t going away and that their right wing is lost to ukip, that’s why the tory VI has been incredibly stable at 32% for more than 18 months now.

    The only hope for the tories, and it’s a reasonably long shot, is for an equal splintering of the left…the green surge is helping this.

    Labour have a leader who is perceived as weak. That’s simply the truth. Miliband has had very poor ratings in the last few months. The tories will seek to exploit that weakness and will be happy to showcase anyone and any party who will splinter the left wing vote, a large portion of which is no longer inspired by labour. it’s very simple.

    not sure whether ultimately it will work, but it’s worth a try.

  7. As a Green, I don’t expect this surge to stick. When it comes to poll day, with the ‘Vote Green, get Tory’ argument and the hopelessness of a Green MP in most seats, people will vote tactically. The best a Green can realistically hope for from this surge is to force Labour to the left.

  8. RAF,
    I hope that your scond thought is right.It would just be too sad and ironic if a
    concern for green things gave us another five years of those who wish to get
    rid of the green stuff.

  9. Some pundits have been saying that the Conservatives have realised their best chance is in persuading the electorate that there is no difference between the main parties propelling exactly what might be under way. It was clear reading the comments on a Guardian article mentioned earlier that many people think they can vote for a coalition rather than a party which is not possible. Either voters will start to realise this or not.

  10. “The ten point score for the Greens is the first time they’ve broken into double figures with YouGov, and in this case it’s pushed Labour down to 30%, the lowest YouGov have shown them at this Parliament”
    _______

    It’s grim reading for Labour. They are losing the left in spectacular fashion and although the Greens may not pick up many seats it would appear they will offset the UKIP vote lost by the Tories and thwart Labour gains at the Tories expense.

  11. ANN IN WALES

    Instead of blaming green voters, why don’t labour supporters actually engage in what the French call auto-critique…If I were a labour supporter, i would want to ask, why is labour only scoring low 30s after 5 years of a tory led government, after the rise of ukip and the collapse of the liberal democrats?

  12. Barney,

    There are plenty of voters (particularly of the younger generation) who think we have a preferential voting system for parliamentary elections. I’ve had “I’m Green but I’ll be voting Labour as my second preference” on the doorstep, and not from Scots, Welsh or Northern Irish either.

    There is a serious lack of knowledge about our electoral system among a lot of people. It would be useful if the Electoral Commission could send something out explaining how it works.

  13. I think that if the polls consistently show the Tories ahead of Labour it will scare lefties close to the election when the media start saying Labour might lose. This might then affect VI as the fear of a Tory minority government kicks in.

  14. Looks like who ever wins the next election they will have about 25% of the people voting for them,so they will have no mandate & people could say why should we take any notice of any laws/policies they bring in.

  15. Neil,

    It may be two and three halves in England, but in Scotland it risks becoming: one, a half, a third, and three quarters.

    Pthiers,

    We have already had seats won in Scotland at 28% of the vote. This year there are likely to be a few of those in England for the first time, while it is conceivable that some seats in Scotland could be won with less than 25%.

    Three-way marginals are boring when you can look at dozens of four-way marginals, and possibly even some five-way fights.

  16. The Lab trend continues. I am not a statistician but it seems that the graph of Lab VI has been on a steady decline for a year or more.

    I had expected Ukip support would have begun to decline to Con benefit by now. But this seems less likely as each week goes by.

    If Lab continue to decline and Con remains at 32 and ahead of Lab then “vote Ukip get EM” may have less impact.

    However, Ukip and Green manifestos are not yet revealed and they may surprise new supporters. I expect there to be some movement away from them.

  17. Auto-critique?
    The timing would not seem to be good I would have thought. But in the broader European context this is the kind of level of support for the centre left which is most common.
    Centre left politics I have often said here are the hardest to sell in current conditions but are, unfortunately for some, what are needed.
    It is interesting that few outside the centre right want them to be in government but most want to see the centre left in government not only here but across much of Europe. The outcomes for the social democrats in Denmark and Sweden are the worst they have seen for a century but they are still leading the governments.
    If they are to be in power,Labour here have to get over the message that if people want Labour in power then they must vote Labour. Of course if they don’t want Labour then they shouldn’t.

  18. @AC – if Labour has lost the left ‘in spectacular fashion’ then presumably the way the Tories have lost the right is indescribable.

  19. On my calculations, that means that Greens are on a record 6.9% mean of the last 20 polls, and 8.2% mean of the last 5. Mean LD-Green gap has also been steadily declining (now down to a record low 0.8% over the last 20 polls), despite the LDs recovering about 0.5% from their record low in late November.

  20. Will be fun to see the Greens do just enough to hurt labour but not enough to win more than 1MP…

    Again… this was the Tory plan. They are playing the 18-24 like fools.

  21. Tony, as a Green, there are still some policies we need to get rid of. However our manifestos are pretty much a highlights reel of the best of our policy. So I would hazard a guess that, no, our manifesto will probably solidify those that have jumped on board. Hugely proud of our European Election one.

    UKIP I can’t say the same for. Particularly given Tim Aker has been kicked off and they’re rushing it, as usual. They should be sensible. I doubt they will.

  22. Considering that ICM also have a poll out, that shows Greens picking up support from churn and the protest voters who’d switched to UKIP, and Labour still having a lead… I say we need more polling before we start writing of Labour’s chances?

  23. In germany of course you have the cdu which is a centre party, with a right tinge to it. The left is hideously divided there, with die Linke, the SPD and the Greens taking chunks out of each other.

    Until the beginning of 2014, it looked like labour could play the equivalent role of the CDU but on the left. In January 2014, when labour were on about 37%, it looked as though labour commanded a fairly solid block of support while the right- ukip, the tories, and the remaining lib dems- looked like a fractured right.

    It’s important to remember that labour were averaging 37% as late as March last year. the euro campaign saw a gentle slide in their support, and they have been gently sliding ever since, to the point at which they are really in the low 30s…the left looks as fractured as the right with the greens on 10%

    I have my doubts as to whether the greens will keep their gains and I still expect labour to limp home just, but the labour slide over the last 10 months has been extraordinary.

  24. I don’t see any more reason to assume that Greens will go back to Labour than Kippers will go back to the Tories. There is a portion of the left that Labour has always struggled to keep onto, which voted Lib Dem and Alliance before that and Liberal before that.

    It is possible that Labour were flattered misleadingly by the absence of an effective competitor on the left-of-centre. This began to disappear in Scotland as far back a 2011, and it is now disappearing rather rapidly in England & Wales as well.

    Labour on 30% is really awful given that they’ve been in opposition during a period of austerity, and given that the Tories are doing awfully as well. There has been a terrific failure on the part of Labour to secure the anti-Coalition vote, and it would be very worrying for Labour’s prospects in future elections if they were to get 30% or less.

  25. @Unicorn, I will await with interest your next re-calculation of trends…

  26. I say we need more polling before we start writing of Labour’s chances?

    Nobody, certainly not me, is writing off labour’s chances…we are just commenting on the erosion of labour’s support in the last year which is a palpable fact. [snip – AW]

  27. Jayblanc,

    Agreed. I still expect Labour to win a very clear majority, for reasons I’ve already cited on here.

  28. (reposted from the other thread, as still relevant)

    R&D is of course right that momentum and media (including social media)

    Lots of our new members know each other, and have clearly been talking to friends about joining.

    But even if they are joining (or saying they will vote Green) because we are flavour of the month, that really doesn’t mean that they are unaware of Green policies or values. Far more likely is that they are part of the substantial section of the country that has always been Green-minded, but have not voted for them – Green policies have polled ahead of the party for years.

    The other point is that Green party is determined by its membership, which is now dramatically different from what it was 3 months ago. There’s not going to be a national conference before the election, but future Green policy is as likely to be that of the new joiners as the older ones.

  29. Re the comments in the last thread suggesting that new Green VIS were jumping on the bandwagon and that many of the “new Greens” would not agree with some Green policies. I first voted Green in the last Euros after listening to a couple of their election broadcasts and liking what I heard. I still voted LD in the locals as we have some good LD councillors. It was not a case of jumping on a bandwagon, admittedly the bandwagon was just starting then, but a case of preferring their LOC policies.

    Re not agreeing with all their policies – no I don’t accept them all, but neither did I accept all LD policies when an LD member or all Lab policies when previously a Lab member. I would suggest that anyone who automatically accepts all their party’s policies has stopped thinking for him/herself.

  30. We seem to have another good example here of the retrospective announcements that ‘these polls show party X had a plan and it’s working’.

    No, Cameron didn’t have any plan to boost the greens as a way to hurt Labour. If they did, lots of people would have been saying before the green surge ‘Dave needs to boost the greens to hurt Labour’.

    Dave’s plan was to avoid a debate. That’s all. This may have helped greens VI, but it was n the move anyway. Tories may well be using the green surge to their advantage, but this is a retrospective reaction to events, not part of a long term calculated strategy.

  31. MRNAMELESS
    There is a serious lack of knowledge about our electoral system among a lot of people. It would be useful if the Electoral Commission could send something out explaining how it works.

    The first sentence is undoubtedly true, but as the 2nd would be the EC trying to influence voter behaviour wouldn’t it be illegal?

    Doubtless some parties will be sending out the usual “only the XXX party can beat the YYY party here” propaganda as they’re entitled to. Just maybe that’s been done for so long that they have lost their effectiveness.

    But at least election night will be fun watching some of the dinosaurs suffering the irony of losing their seats because they opposed AV.

  32. James Peel,
    I am not blaming anyone for anything,just pointing to the irony of what might
    happen.

  33. The Greens won less than 300,000 votes in 2010, less than 1%.

    10% is 4.7 million in terms of the UK electorate so on a turn out of around 65% (2010) that would be 3.5 million votes for the Greens,

    That would be 3.2 million Labour voters shuffling over to the Greens and I’m thinking this must be one of the largest peacetime Mass Exodus in history!!

  34. “The first sentence is undoubtedly true, but as the 2nd would be the EC trying to influence voter behaviour wouldn’t it be illegal?”

    I don’t think so. It wouldn’t be telling voters what to do with their vote, just the way FPTP works (plurality of votes in each constituency wins, 326 seats means majority government).

  35. No, Cameron didn’t have any plan to boost the greens as a way to hurt Labour. If they did, lots of people would have been saying before the green surge ‘Dave needs to boost the greens to hurt Labour’.

    I don’t think you know what goes on at all. I know that until the end of last year. Dave seriously thought he could get UKIP voters back.

    at the beginning of this year the crosby and the tories realised that they weren’t going to get ukip voters back, so they thought it woud be a good idea to have the greens as a counterbalance…that’s what including them in the debates is all about. Dave didn’t want to be beaten up by Farage without labour having to guard their left flank against the greens.

    dave isn’t a strategist at all…if he was, he would have won a majority in 2010 and would have been re-elected already in 2014. he isn’t that….but it only takes animal cunning to want the greens to be in the field, now ukip has taken your right wing.

  36. Allan Christie,

    What, 90% of the Green vote is ex-Lab? More like 30%. About 50% is ex-LD.

  37. ALEC
    @AC – if Labour has lost the left ‘in spectacular fashion’ then presumably the way the Tories have lost the right is indescribable
    _____

    It could be but UKIP have been eating away at the right for several years now. The Greens have in a matter of weeks eaten chunks off the Labour VI.

    I thought all Greens were veggies??

  38. MRNAMELESS
    Allan Christie,
    What, 90% of the Green vote is ex-Lab? More like 30%. About 50% is ex-LD
    ____

    How much of the current Labour VI is Lib/Dem? Anyway I take your point but there is a titanic shift within the left and Labour are beyond flat lining now.

  39. @Alec beat me to it but I am finding the whole ‘DC master plan’ stories amusing with reference to the Greens. Much like watching someone miss a step on some stairs, stumble down them, arms windmilling, before miraculously landing on their feet and then declaring ‘I meant to do that’.

    He was clawing around for a way of scarpering out of the debates without having to give the honest reason of ‘Because I’m pretty sure I’ll get beaten.’ Still Napoleon did, supposedly, say he’d rather have lucky generals than skillful ones: and whatever else he is, Cameron is darned lucky.

    Perhaps this’ll be the kick up the backside Labour need to finally devise a strategy of engaging with Green supporters that speaks to relevant issues to them and forms a dialogue to win them back, rather than the patronizing, fear mongering nonsense that has vaguely passed for one. I doubt it somehow…

  40. @MrNameless @Allan

    Last week 2010 Lab voters made up 1% of Green VI.

    Labour have lost more of their 2010 vote to the Conservatives and UKIP.

  41. “The first sentence is undoubtedly true, but as the 2nd would be the EC trying to influence voter behaviour wouldn’t it be illegal?”

    I don’t think educating the electorate on factual matters would ever be deemed illegal.

  42. Last week on YG polls:

    Con 2010 – 0.5%
    Lab 2010 – 1.0%
    LD 2010 – 3.5%
    Other – 2.0%

    Total 7%

  43. @Alec, anarchists

    Conservative home and others have had a number of stories in the last few months about the need for the Tories to boost the Greens/ Lib Dems in order to win, example

    http://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2014/11/cllr-nick-botterill-conservative-loss-of-hammersmith-fulham-council-are-there-wider-lessons-for-london.html

    ” for Conservatives to benefit we need the Greens to be doing far better. A far harder and unpalatable proposition is we must seek to garner as many of the Lib Dem deserters as possible or rely on the Lib Dems doing better than the current opinion polls suggest they will.”

    But blaming Cameron, or the Greens or anyone else for Labour’s current woes is missing the point imho. Labour lost these voters for a reason. They need to go back to that one nation speech in 2012 when they hit 45% in the polls and compare the tone and content of that speech to what they have been putting out in the last 2 years to identify why they are on course to lose this election.

    The debate discussion was a blessing in disguise, as voters would have eventually started paying attention to politics again anyway, and we would have seen the same movements as we are seeing now. At least they have some time to fix it, but it is fast running out.

  44. Barney, Mr N, James Peel (and other sinners on the previous thread)

    It would greatly help the readability of threads if everyone used the normal conventions.

    If replying to someone – start with their user name.

    If quoting someone else’s words, then indicate that it is a quote.

  45. @Skippy

    “Will be fun to see the Greens do just enough to hurt labour but not enough to win more than 1MP…

    Again… this was the Tory plan. They are playing the 18-24 like fools.”

    Might I point out (a) I am 61; and (b) I like to consider myself not foolish.

    That doesn’t stop me being a convert to Green (any more than it stops you being patronising).

  46. Anarchists Unite,

    I saw a comment on a Labour blog the other day in response to a Green poster asking for that. It was along the lines of “You know damn well we could promise to nationalise the moon and give a free car to every 17 year old and you’d still call us Tory-lite”.

    Do you not think there might be something in that? It’s said of UKIP that no matter how much the Tories pander, they can always go further? Should that not logically apply here too?

  47. MRNAMELESS
    I don’t think so. It wouldn’t be telling voters what to do with their vote, just the way FPTP works (plurality of votes in each constituency wins, 326 seats means majority government).

    That still strikes me as an attempt to influence voter behaviour. I would be interested in others’ views, but I would have thought that going beyond explaining what a valid ballot paper looks like would breach their remit and potentially be partial.

    Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

  48. Go ahead you miserable old git. The more you convert, the more likely we will see Dave being very happy in May.

  49. It’s saddening that some people here turn their nose up at the notion of people actually voting for who they want.

  50. Barbazenzero

    Less necessary to explain the voting system in England where they only have the Euros as an alternative to FPTP, but reminding people how to vote would be a sensible exercise everywhere else, with multiple voting systems in place.

1 2 3 4