We’ve had two new voting intention polls today, and both continue the trend of increasing Green party support. I briefly mentioned the monthly ICM poll for the Guardian earlier on today, which had the Green party up four points to 9%, the highest they have ever registered in an ICM/Guardian poll. Just out is the daily YouGov poll for the Sun which has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 10%.

The ten point score for the Greens is the first time they’ve broken into double figures with YouGov, and in this case it’s pushed Labour down to 30%, the lowest YouGov have shown them at this Parliament. In terms of the Labour position it’s obviously just one poll and all the usual caveats apply, but for the Greens this is clearly part of a broader trend that is being picked up across many different polls. For all the ponderings about what the effect of having the Green party included in the debates might have been, it looks as if they may be getting a pretty good boost from the arguments around their exclusion from the debates. How sticky that support is remains to be seen.


160 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 32, LAB 30, LD 8, UKIP 15, GRN 10”

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  1. No Chilcot before the GE.

  2. Colin

    I was also thinking about Wales – voting in NI is along such a different polarity, that every party in the Executive could benefit equally (or not at all) from economic indicators.

    Not that I know much about the economic data for Wales! but it would seem unlikely that all swing voters would necessarily attribute improvements/deteriorations to Westminster and Cardiff in the same way.

    My main point, however, was just to add some complexity to your musings on the unknown effect of such matters. :-)

  3. OLDNAT

    Indeed.

    I had always hoped & assumed that the campaign proper would see potential significant VI effect-if only from some tv interview cock-up.

    But the fluid dynamics going on right now are beyond anything foreseen. One wonders if Pollsters can possibly pick up these changes accurately or quickly enough ?

  4. @ OldNat (From about 5 threads ago since last night)

    You can call my username what you like- it’s what people call my local ward Shevington if they can’t be bothered with 3 syllables although I seem to have added an extra I for reasons unknown. She VII would probably be a good title for a sci fi film with androids or something.

  5. New thread

  6. COLIN
    No Chilcot before the GE

    BBC article open with comments enabled at http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30913744

    Looks like lots of angry voters won’t be voting for “the old firm” if it isn’t released.

    I suspect that today’s PMQs and tonight’s YouGov will portend even more “interesting times” for them.

  7. Hey people,

    some interesting polls here. I however think Labour will win. Alone or with someone, they will form the govt.

    People seem to want change and there is something else these polls may not be covering.

    Many EU nationals, I heard many Polish, will vote for Labour, and many British nationals in the EU will do the same. Some of these people can’t vote now, but may be able to do so soon.

    This is a significant number of people, who don’t want EU referendum yelling and threats, and want a positive and collaborative stance towards EU. Tories, in this respect, are really bad.

    Funny enough, DC will alienate voters with his promises. Some atl.

    We are talking about millions of votes possibly. In the end, austerity and trying to please UKIP voters will burn Tories.

  8. This is going to be a really interesting GE. The Tories are recovering, but I don’t think they will reach the heights of 2010. Labour are almost baselining back to 29% and were only polling well thanks to disillusioned LibDem voters who are now switching to the Greens. Labour and LibDems are going to take a hit in Scotland too.

    My prediction is that by May, the Tories might end up being the larger party, but unable to form a majority government. We may well have a coaslition of left-wing parties including Labour, SNP and Green.

  9. But the question then asked is: can you get a poll showing that 80% don’t want to leave the EU.

    There have been enough polls published to know which is capable of producing the greatest consistency in the published results. I would say its evidential that pollsters have political leanings which do not reflect the end reality, and to that end, we – even editors – should be careful about either insinuating or casting any political judgement on such results. For certain, many polls clearly lack implicit neutrality in their construction. But we cannot simply declare that is wrong……..or we simply imply that the neutrality which we treasure on here is lost.

    Certainly, I await with bated breath to see exactly what support both UKIP and the Greens actually poll come Election Day. It will surely give us a better indication in the future regarding their true core of support.

    However, it does have to be accepted that a solid block of voters could get cold feet according to the number being polled by the established institution of LibLabCon.

    Regarding the EU, one gets a sense that the political establishment are not going to give us the entire spectrum of the facts. One thing which personally raised an eyebrow last year was the pasting Nigel Farage gave to Nick Clegg – the bastion of the EU argument – on the subject of the EU last year. It was significantly telling such as to make any future debates on the matter highly interesting. No doubt the subject will be revisited in any ensuing debates in a few months time!

  10. Vote Green get Blue. Miliband needs to get this message across.

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