Sunday polls

I’ve been caught up with various family commitments this weekend, so a very brief summary of the polls in the Sunday papers. We have the monthly ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday, the fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer, two YouGov polls (one in the Sun on Sunday, one in the Sunday Times) and a Panelbase Scottish poll in the Sunday Times.

Opinium in the Observer have topline figures of CON 28%(-2), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 20%(+3), GRN 6%(+2) – a return to decent Labour lead after their poll a fortnight ago had shown things tightening up.

ComRes’s monthly online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror has no such movement, with the race remaining very tight. Their topline voting intentions show virtually no change from last month’s, with topline figures of CON 33%(nc), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 18%(nc), GRN 3%(+1)

YouGov in the Sunday Times also show a one point Labour lead with topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7%. There is a second (and completely separate) YouGov poll in the Sun on Sunday but with fairly similar topline figures, CON 31% and LAB 33%.

Finally the Panelbase Scottish poll in the Sunday Times has topline Westminster voting intentions of CON 14%(-1), LAB 31%(+3), LDEM 3%(nc), SNP 41%(-4), UKIP 7%(nc). The SNP lead of ten points would still be pretty good for them by historical standards, but it’s a drop compared to the very large leads they’ve been showing in other Scottish polls since October, which have varied between 16 and 29 points. As ever, it is only one poll – it may be the first sign of that SNP lead narrowing a bit, or may just be random sample variation.


115 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. @ Mr Nameless

    I do wonder why the Tory right is currently being so quiet. Maybe Michael Gove is an absolutely terrifying man in private.

    The polls are neck & neck. The backbench disquiet came from Labour seemingly having a rock solid advantage of 6% before the referendum. As far as the Tories are concerned, the SNP surge was like manna from heaven, simply because it levelled the polls.

    The SNP can say what they like about not backing a Tory government; the Tories are nonetheless delighted that Labour have an SNP issue which impacts on Labour’s overall polling lead.

  2. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    As you well know my view is based on the expectation of strong late swingback and my own gut feeling that the electorate will vote for the party they believe has the most economic competence.

    We shall see in May.

  3. @ChrisLane1945 – I very good piece thanks john

  4. Couper2802

    “These samples are now internally weighed so reliable”

    Much more reliable than formerly, and than other geographic crossbreaks, but Anthony did say that they hope to make more methodological changes before the aggregation would be as good as a proper Scottish poll.

  5. @ Couper2802

    Last weeks YouGov average SNP 41% Lab 26%
    This weeks YouGov average SNP 43% Lab 27%
    Sample 955
    Not much change there.

    Not much evidence there.

  6. CHRIS

    Thanks.

    Kinnock represents many things I dislike a lot-but I will never forget that speech denouncing Militant. It was terrific. He had guts taking that lot on.

  7. UNICORN

    Thanks-but I tend to agree with JACKR.

  8. AMBER

    Do you really think that “uncertainty” needs maximising by anyone at present?

    :-)

  9. Unicorn

    Just went away and did a bit of maths regarding election forecasts model and expected results.

    The conclusion was completely against what I previously suggested with the growing “spread” of predicted VI once you include an auto regression term. In fact the limit of the variance as you increase time is in fact a constant which is what we are seeing.

    Assuming we are negligibly close to the limit (the spread ain’t moving much) I might be able to go away and reverse engineer the autoregression constant they are using to “pull” the “now VI” back towards last elections VI.

    I’d be making some broad assumptions about their model, but it would be along the lines of the model we think is in play. It’d at least have the characteristics we see in terms of predicted movement and the long term limit of the spread.

    Handwavingly, what happens is if a path starts wandering far away from the mean, this regression will tend to bring it back towards the mean so the spread is less than a true Brownian motion whose spread keeps increasing with time, with an autoregression term in reaches a finite limit (in this case about 4%).

    It seems as if this term is based on the fractional differences in VI as the smaller parties reach a with a smaller spread. The fact there is uncertainty due to sampling on top of this might make it tricky to unravel fully.

  10. I was quizzed recently by You Gov on a number of issues and found there were far too many leading questions that I skipped most of them

  11. Peter Kellner has never had to predict a GE with the UKIP factor….the impact of Farage getting so much exposure during the campaign could make quite a difference……..and ruin Kellners Tory swingback theory.

  12. I’m not particularly convinced the fall in the oil price is going to have a big affect on Scottish voting intentions in 2015.

    From what we’ve seen so far it seems to split people down referendum lines with Yes voters saying “Westminster mismanagement” and No voters saying “SNP fantasy economics”.

    I think it probably is more relevant to a future independence referendum where oil price uncertainty will weigh on the minds of potential Yes voters. However in 15-20 years time it’s likely the extractive element of the Scottish oil industry (as opposed to the servicing and support to overseas fields side) will likely be less important than it is now.

    The Panelbase poll did ask about oil price views and of those voting SNP 22% agreed the price fall weakened the case for independence but they still intended to vote SNP. These voters may be an easy target for Labour but I’m still not sure.

    In addition it’s a hard issue to exploit for Labour as being too enthusiastic about the fall in price looks like cheering on any resulting job losses which isn’t a good mood to create.

    It’s a tricky issue to exploit overall.

  13. @ Oldnat: Your reference to the SNP as an example of a popular government at midterm is not really an appropriate comparison to the Westminster parliament.

    It is of course the core message of the SNP that many of the Scots’ problems stem from the Westminster. The independence vote shows that many Scots agree with them.

  14. The tide has turned somewhat against the SNP since the election of Jim Murphy. Also, the falling price of oil and the job losses in the oil industry may have focused many Scots minds on the future reliance of oil as the main source of revenue.

  15. Combining the 6-7% Lib Dem polling with the Ashcroft polls, leads to the conclusion that the Lib Dems’ base vote is currently 2%.

    ie. If it wasn’t for the personal popularity of specific candidates and local issues, this is the level of support they would get.

    I’m very surprised that this isn’t getting more attention.

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