Ipsos MORI’s monthly poll for the Evening Standard came out today. MORI’s last two polls rather stood out from the crowd by showing three point Conservative leads when all others were showing ties or small Labour leads. Today’s poll looks far more like the average Labour lead, with topline figures of CON 33%(+1), LAB 34%(+5), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 11%(-2), GRN 8%(-1) (full tabs are here.)

MORI also asked about which issues would be important to people at the election. Following the earlier polling from ComRes and YouGov that showed health moving sharply up the agenda, this showed healthcare coming top, followed by the economy and immigration. (This isn’t actually MORI’s monthly issues tracker, which is done face-to-face and asks about the most important issues facing the country, but it’s obviously picking up a similar trend)


89 Responses to “Ipsos MORI – CON 33, LAB 34, LD 8, UKIP 11, GRN 8”

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  1. @MrNameless

    “I think it is one of the great myths of British politics (and has been since, ooh, about 1988), that there is no difference between Labour and Tory policies”

    But surely the onus is on Labour to demonstrate this and get that message across? The fact that they’re clearly not, and that their message always seems to get garbled (particularly when Rachael Reeves does the media rounds) should be telling them something, after all. There is perhaps something to the argument that the ‘right-wing media/pro-government BBC/pro-the-other-Milliband-and-still-not-got-over-it Guardian’ distort the message, but that only carries so far.

    “Labour is the most left wing it has been since 1992. I’d have thought that the natural response for those to the left of the party would be to reward that move.”

    Perhaps others disagree? Again the onus is on Labour to do something about this, not just expect it to happen. And they’re certainly not going to do it with their already described tactics.

  2. @MrNameless

    With respect there are people here who may have a different view, people who have been fighting elections for many, many years.

    I know how I am voting and I know exactly what I am doing.

    Thank you for your concern.

    :-)

  3. I wonder what you think the cause is Luke.

    It does seem quite dramatic.

    Is this a reaction against OFCOM’s ruling-but does the average 18 to 24 year old follow OFCOM edicts with interest?

    Is it somehow as a result of the publicity from DC’s stance on the debates?

  4. MRNAMELESS
    I think that while we have FPTP, left-leaning voters should support whichever party has the best chance of forming a non-Tory government.

    Were you asleep from 1997 to 2010? Having won the 1997 election with promises of Lords and electoral reform, 13 years of Lab rule lead to a increase in “appointed” peers whilst forgetting electoral reform until Brown’s offer of an AV referendum after the 2010 GE.

    On reflection, perhaps you were asleep in 2011 & 2012 too, when Lab & Con MPs provided an AV prequel to the BT campaign and threw out Lords reform.

    And, BTW, Lab introduced the “bedroom tax” for private tenants.

  5. “they actually won elections on the right, as blair and mandelson worked out.”

    Only because the left had no alternatives. Labour can’t assume the left will feel forced to vote for their center-right policies anymore.

  6. I’m going to bed (not to do with you, people on Facebook insulting me) so those of you who are happy tonight enjoy yourselves. Hopefully we’ll have some polls out soon.

  7. I think out there many people have realised that this election is a great chance to break the current system.

    For some that is a very attractive prospect. Offering them a solution based on supporting the system they dislike is unlikely to be accepted.

  8. MrNameless – insult them back!

  9. Vote Green get Tory, vote Ukip get Lab. What a funny world!

    When looked at on a constituency basis does this stand up?

  10. Tonight’s Yougov

    Con…32

    Lab…3216

    UKIP…

    Lib…6

    Grn… 8

  11. @ Barbazenzero,

    Having won the 1997 election with promises of Lords and electoral reform, 13 years of Lab rule led to the creation of the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly and the elimination of most of the hereditary peers.

    Fixed that for you. :)

  12. Tonight’s Yougov
    Con…32
    Lab…32
    UKIP…
    Lib…6
    Grn… 8

  13. @DARRYL TESTER

    Pthiers is the man in the know, being American and IIRC, a political scientist . But as far as I can see Obama is far closer to Cameron politically than he is to Ed Miliband.

    On the other hand, Ed Balls’ economic positioning seems to be more similar to the Democrat administration than George Osborne’s strategy. I believe that Ed Balls spent the summer of 2013 consulting with Larry Summers who Obama wanted to head the Fed.

    George Osborne’s economic strategy seems to be to mirror that proposed by the tea party’s darling, Paul Ryan.

  14. So where are we?

    Swing back?…….No

    Greens ahead of Lib/Dems?…Looks like it

    and UKIP on 16%.Yes I missed out them.

  15. Mr N

    “I think that while we have FPTP, left-leaning voters should support whichever party has the best chance of forming a non-Tory government.”

    Yep! All those damn fools who voted Labour in the 1920s should be apologising for their foolishness. :-)

  16. Owls……..people being insulted on FB……What is this?

  17. Barnaby,

    That would be beneath me. I just object to being called a Tory in a red tie.

    Night all.

  18. BARBAZENZERO
    “And, BTW, Lab introduced the “bedroom tax” for private tenants.”

    There are huge differences between the two as this non-partisan blogger explains:

    http://notpaying.tumblr.com/post/55537295011/how-the-bedroom-tax-differs-from-the-local-housing

  19. JAMES PEEL

    May I commend your post to the house.

    Well said.

  20. @Colin

    Grab you popcorn and take a comfy seat…. :-)

  21. Mr Nameless,
    Try not to be too fed up.Closer scrutiny of the Greens manifesto might be rather interesting.Perhaps it would be good if they were to take part in the
    debates.

  22. @ Crossbat, your post at 9:12pm

    Well said Sir.

  23. the manners and the english may be dire, but the sentiments are heartfelt and the analysis is spot on, I am afraid.

    Labour- and I know many who work for the party- are secretly terrified of getting into power in weak centre-left coalition which gets swept out of power if and when a charismatic centre right leader emerges…

    labour is more frightened of the consequences of winning by a hair’s breadth than by being an opposition with 280 or so seats.

  24. Colin, its the Greens fault

  25. Have we had the UKPR Polling Average show a dead heat before, since 2010 at least? I can’t remember it but I guess we might have after a bounce somewhere that I missed.

  26. Over on QT David Starkey has already made an utter fool of himself.

    Given no-one will take his spade from him, he has plenty of time of dig himself deeper in before it ends….

  27. SPEARMINT
    Having won the 1997 election with promises of Lords and electoral reform, 13 years of Lab rule led to the creation of the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly and the elimination of most of the hereditary peers.

    Had they reneged on the devolution promises, they would not have been in Government for more than one term. And they did renege on electoral reform.

    Replacing hereditary placemen with even more appointed cronies was hardly a triumph of democracy – more an insiders’ retirement scheme. Plus, of course, the Jenkins Commission was no longer needed with a Lab majority.

  28. “Labour- and I know many who work for the party- are secretly terrified of getting into power in weak centre-left coalition which gets swept out of power if and when a charismatic centre right leader emerges…”

    Funny not something I’ve detected. I’ve detected a passionate desire to win, and a lot of people giving up a lot of time, and a lot of people without much money making generous donations to try and bring a victory about.

  29. What a difference a few hours make. On the back of an earlier poll the talk was..

    “We’re on the up”

    “Swing back has started”

    “Here we go here we go….”

    “It’s the home straight ”

    “EM on the march”

    We’re pulling away”

    and on they went…

    Tonight’s poll…CON 32% LAB 32%
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    ..
    .
    .
    ………myth busted

  30. GUYMONDE

    No the guys I know are scared of a weak centre-left government being blown away after one shaky term, believe me…the guys i know are old and remember the ’74-’79 labour government which led to Thatcher and tory rule for 18 years. they are scared, trust me.

  31. @Barbazenzero

    Have you woken up to the fact the Labour Party nowadays is led by a son of Ralph Miliband rather than an opportunist from Fettes?

  32. Just noticed the updated UKPR average:

    CON 33 (=)
    LAB 33 (-1)
    LIB 7 (-1)
    UKIP 15 (=)
    GRN 7 (+1)

    Not the first hung parliament on UNS, but first tie for the lead in a while.

    Not 100% sure that that’s the lowest ever for the Lib Dems, but definitely the first time tied with Greens

  33. BRAMLEY
    There are huge differences between the two as this non-partisan blogger explains

    I agree that there are differences. I merely pointed out that Lab sowed the seed.

  34. I have to say as an active Labiur Party member myself I agree with GUYMONDE. The members of my own local party are passionate about getting rid of this coalition government and getting Labour elected.

    But then I’m a Labour Party member and obviously know less about what they think than James Peel.

  35. @ OldNat from earlier

    Yes I take your point about the SGP, but I (like CMJ) suspect that the SNP surge is SO huge that it simply steamrollered the smaller pro-indy parties… Down here that doesn’t apply.

    Goes without saying that if you aggregate all the pro-indy parties together…

  36. New thread peeps.

  37. @ TONY CORNWALL

    Likely to be in areas with favourable demographics (under 30s, especially students). Ashcroft polling showed some evidence of that, as does the microdata

  38. PHIL HAINES
    Have you woken up to the fact the Labour Party nowadays is led by a son of Ralph Miliband rather than an opportunist from Fettes?

    Yes.

    Have you woken up to the fact Lab’s current leader made no attempt to support the minimal electoral & Lords reforms opportunities offered in 2011 & 2012?

  39. Conservatives need to be scoring more ties in polls and the trend to be in with any sort of chance of forming a government next time, assuming that the slow drift towards them continues as now.

    I reckon a 3% lead over Labour will allow them to form a coalition with the LD’s and Unionists (that’s if both of them are interested, difficult to be convinced about this possibility) and a 5% lead for a coalition as now, just scraping a miniscule combined majority. I’m dubious about the 5% but the 3% looks within reach. This eventuality amuses me, considering the above talk of weak centre-left coalitions. The centre-right is quite capable of doing these too.

    As for another 18 years of Tory rule: I can’t see that happening again, many of the things Thatcher did to keep herself in power can’t be done again (eg, there is
    no 1945-style nationalised state to break up and sell off). Additionally, the Conservatives are now absolutely terrible at winning elections compared to her stint in office. It’s not wholly their fault, but although they are very popular in the SE, Labour are generally fairly popular everywhere else, and that helps them win more seats even if they are nationally unpopular.

    Consider this: A Labour government that had very much run out of puff, with an unpopular leader who had presided over one of the worst financial crises ever, and the Conservatives still couldn’t get a majority under these particularly favourable circumstances? That’s with a leader who is still generally well-regarded.
    You have to wonder how things have to be before they can win a majority. Crikey, they’d have to be worse than 2007. Gulp.

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