The Christmas polling break is over. Opinium have the first poll of 2015 out tonight, conducted for the Observer. Topline figures are CON 32%(+3), LAB 33%(-3), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 17%(+1), GRN 4%(-1). The poll has a sharp drop in Labour’s lead, down six points since a fortnight ago, but the previous poll was that rather incongruous seven point Labour lead, so part of the change will just be a correction after an unusual poll.

Note that fieldwork for the poll was the 30th Dec to 2nd Jan, so included New Years Eve and New Years Day. There isn’t actually any real evidence that doing fieldwork on bank holidays when many people are out doing stuff produces odd results… but I’m a bit wary of it. There are examples of polls done on bank holidays producing very odd results, but there are also examples of polls done on perfectly normal days producing odd results and polls done on banks holidays producing normal looking ones.


372 Responses to “First poll of 2015 from Opinium”

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  1. Barney,

    I hope your not planning to contact Yes voters with info you collected during the referendum campaign because the data protection act makes keeping it and using it after October illegal!

    Peter.

  2. @Spearmint

    It may not be mendacious, but since it comes from exactly the same source as those trying to speculate on the tosh of a Con/Lab grand coalition (still 50/1 in current betting), I suggest that at the very least it’s wishful thinking and should be treated as such unless someone comes up with evidence to the contrary.

  3. @Barney

    The first headline was ‘I am for the Prosperous and the Poor’ and I have heard Murphy using that soundbite several times since. He then went on to talk about villages such as Pitlochry that should be full of Labour voters (!).

    He spent his years between 11 and 18 in South Africa I don’t think he lived in a poor area there.

    He will try to get some Yes voters back before May. But listening to McTernan & Blair McDougal who are on Murphy’s team there is little doubt where he is heading IMO.

  4. ouGov/Sun poll tonight: 1st in 2015 and also with UKIP prompted – LAB 34%, CON 31%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8%, LD 7%. Gives Ed Mili majority of 16.

  5. @Phil Haines

    The Telegraph are running with the Coalition story . “A grand Tory-Labour coalition might be good for business’

    So this idea that it is mischievous by the SNP or myself is nonsense and wishful thinking on your part.

    Of course Labour won’t ally with Conservatives but it definitely plays into they’re all the same meme and helps the SNP as it might have the effect of hardening SNP support

  6. Greens ahead of LibDems again. How many seats could the Greens win if they put on another few percentages say 10%? Three?

    Are LibDem voters moving to Green, the Greens would seem an obvious home for them.

  7. SPEARMINT
    @ Allan Christie,
    The SNP have no intention of allowing expectations of the Vow to be met, regardless of the actual terms of the devolution package. Since the unionist parties also have no intention of meeting them, this is a rare moment of cross-party unity that will probably achieve the desired outcome.
    _______

    What would that be?………Devo Knievel? ;-)

  8. This you gov showing re the Greens is NOT regularly replicated in other polls where the Lib Dems seem to be consistently ahead of them. Hate to get in the way of a good narrative…no doubt it’ll be parroted as now the norm. But in reality it ain’t!

  9. COUPER

    I think the Greens could poll around 15% and still end up with 1 seat.

  10. “Is it ReutersandDaisie now?

    Peter.”

    Not any more it’s not – we’ve been sacked.

  11. How many Scottish Lib/Dem MSP’s can you fit in a mini?

    All of them……2 in the front and 3 in the back.

  12. @Coupar2802 – “The Telegraph are running with the Coalition story ”

    Sorry, but that is patently untrue.

    A single Telegraph economics editor has produced an article that addresses this idea as a ‘thought experiment’ to discuss what the effect on business might be, but then says this outcome is ‘highly unlikely’, saying ‘the odds are stacked against it’ and it would be too ‘politically unstable’ to survive.

    There is no story here to run with. Just the deluded rantings of some useless London media types [you know – the same London ‘MSM’ media types that the Yes campaign were so fond of back in September] and some equally nonsensical SNP supporters.

    I find it laughable that this notion has attracted a single sentence of comment anywhere on UKPR, but screamingly funny to see the Yes/SNP supporters now pointing to the London press saying – ‘look – it’s in the papers – it must be true’.

    Do you all not remember what you told us about the London press three months ago? Or is everything different now?

    Like the price of oil?

  13. Well I’ll be keen to see how Labour’s VI holds up (across the entire UK) as the week progresses. I’m not going into details as it’s against the comments policy, but I expect Labour’s VI to drop.

    Clue: Mansion Tax – Murphy – Nurses

    If it rises, where and why? Should be interesting.

    @Allan

    “Devo Knievel”

    I think we’ll see more than a few stunts in the next 5 months, and at least a couple of ‘crash and burn’ moments.

  14. @Couper2802

    If a Telegraph columnist is promoting that view it’s more likely than otherwise to be a load of tosh. It takes two to tango and Labour won’t touch the Conservatives with a barge pole.

    I have no view on whether you are being mischievious or not in promoting the idea. If you believe it you have though become prone to wishful thinking.

    What is noticeable is that despite similar speculation a couple of days back in the Times, the price of a Con/Lab grand coalition remains unchanged at 50/1, so I’m clearly not alone in holding this view.

  15. STATGEEK

    @Allan
    “Devo Knievel”
    …….
    “I think we’ll see more than a few stunts in the next 5 months, and at least a couple of ‘crash and burn’ moments”
    _______

    4 months STATGEEK 4 months to see them ;-)

  16. @Alec

    Labour are very touchy on the Lab-Con coalition story.
    No one is saying it is true, just that it is a story and hasn’t been ruled out. Mind you I could see Murphy getting along nicely with Cameron and Clegg. But I am pretty sure Ed would veto the deal.

    The Tory press that were so friendly to Labour throughout the Referendum campaign will now turn on them. Although Murphy has been doing a fair bit of writing for the Mail. It won’t save you from the onslaught.

  17. Re the road poster… apparently in Germany.
    I’ve just seen Newsnight which concludes with 4 Tory grandees standing against a backdrop of another road. This is a motorway with a VW beetle and a 1960s Mercedes on it. And it is probably in Germany (clue, they are driving on the right).
    This seems distinctly odd symbolism.

  18. @Couper2802

    “No one is saying it is true, just that it is a story and hasn’t been ruled out.”

    To put it in perspective, you can get 10/1 on UKIP getting 100+ seats in May.

    I can’t rule that out either. But while it’s highly unlikely, it’s about 5 times as likely as a Lab/Con coalition at odds of 50/1. Time to get back to the real world, I think.

  19. I haven’t seen any reference to this YouGov ‘knockout’ policy poll on here.
    We will all no doubt have unmentionable (here) views on the topics and I’m a bit intrigued by how the questions were chosen and by whom.
    Anyway, any VI story around this?

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/6fs8xecws7/YG-Archive-141207-PolicyKnockout.pdf

  20. Couper

    In other news, Labour has today not ruled out the possibility that Ed Miliband will dress in a pink tutu during any Leaders Debate and sing a line from “Sugar Me” by Lynsey de Paul to every question.

    Curious isn’t it?

  21. “The war in Iraq was a huge mistake and we went about it the wrong way but the way forward is to enshrine ways to prevent it happening again in UK law not to chase Bush and Blair.”

    I don’t see how you can do the first without doing the second. (The Blair part of it anyway.)

  22. @Couper2802

    Passing through London I find the Evening Standard cross about Murphy and the taxes and running a story about how the Labour Mayoral Candidates are not in favour. As I understand it Murphy’s promise is a consequence of the Barnet Formula and Labour’s estimate of the amount that will be raised by the Mansion Tax. Any serious attempt to tax the rich is going to find them disproportionately in London and the South East and will distribute some of their wealth elsewhere. If Labour is to have the courage of its convictions, it should point this out.

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