Today we’ve the final Ipsos MORI monthly poll of 2014 and the last 2014 batch of Lord Ashcroft’s constituency polling (the keenly awaited Scottish marginals polling is taking place next year).

MORI’s monthly poll has topline figures of CON 32%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 13%(-1), GRN 9%(+2). The Conservatives are three points ahead, but as ever it’s the trend that counts and there is no difference from last month for the main parties here. Note the Greens though – nine points is another new record high for them. Full tabs are here.

Meanwhile Lord Ashcroft’s final batch of 2014 constituencies polls covers three groups of seats. One is another swathe of Con-held Labour targets, another is a group of those Labour seats who the Fabians have identified as the most vulnerable to UKIP, the final one is the unusual seat of Brighton Pavilion. Full details of all the polls are here.

This batch of Con/Lab seats covers those with Conservative majorities between 7.1% and 8.1% – in other words these are seats that would need a swing of between 3.5% and 4% to fall to Labour, the equivalent of national polls showing a Labour lead between zero and one point. This is in the region of current national polls, and as the swing in individual seats varies from one to the next, Ashcroft found Labour ahead in some of these seats, the Conservatives ahead in others. Across all eight seats polled Ashcroft found an average swing of 3 points in these seats, the equivalent of national polls showing a one point Conservative lead – so in this batch of seats, Labour are actually doing slightly worse than they are in the country as a whole. These might just so-happen to be eight seats where the Tories are doing a bit better of course, so don’t run off with the idea that the Conservatives are out-performing in the marginals just yet. The broader finding in Ashcroft’s Con-v-Lab battleground polls so far is that the marginal swing is pretty similar to the national swing.

The Lab-UKIP part of the polling covered four Labour-held seats (Great Grimsby, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View and Rother Valley) that the Fabian Society’s paper Revolt on the Left identified as being at critical or high risk from UKIP. The polling found Labour ahead in all four seats, but with UKIP in a close second place in all four of them. Labour have a 1 point lead in Grimsby, 3 points in Dudley North, 5 points in Plymouth Moor View and 6 points in Rother Valley. This appears to confirm the research by Rob Ford and Ian Warren that these would be seats where, based on demographics, UKIP would pose a strong challenge – and suggests that Labour cannot afford to take them for granted. It’s also worth pointing out that using standard “how would you vote tomorrow” UKIP were ahead in three of the seats, Labour only moved ahead on the question asking people to think about their own constituency and candidates.

Finally in Brighton Pavilion, very much a unique seat given its Green incumbency, Ashcroft found latest voting intention figures of CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 8%, GRN 38%.


323 Responses to “Latest MORI poll and Ashcroft constituency polling”

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  1. @CatManJeff – the problem is one person’s consumption is another person’s income.

    We saw the ideal green scenario in 2008. People cut back and repaid their debts. It probably slowed global warming as the whole planet went into frugal mode.

    But were the people halting their expenditure happy? Nope, they were utterly miserable. And were the people made redundant because others cut their expenditure happy? No they were utterly miserable too. People were desperate for that misery to end. They are still feeling a bit miserable because they don’t have that sense of plenty and surplus that they did before the crash.

    You are going up against human nature I’m afraid. It would help if Greens embraced technology to take the edge off some of their harsher policies. Until then, hair-shirt wearing will be a minority taste. But they do have a great name (despite Statgeek thinking of mould every time she sees the word Green!)

  2. Graham
    I also agree re the NHS bill. I think that was their last chance to win back LOC voters. Earlier in this parliament I wondered what NC’s strategy would be for the GE. It has become apparent that there is none. I think he has played his hand abmissally.
    I also wonder if the Lib Dems actually considered pulling the plug at that stage. It would be interesting to know.
    BFR
    I don’t feel that there is anger from posters here particularly towards the LDs, rather than from LD 2010 voters.

  3. LD average GE vote share 1945-1970 was about 7%. And it looks like they have returned to pretty much that level.

    I can’t help but suspect they might get more votes in 2020 but lose more seats (on top of the almost certain losses in May). Perhaps the “faithful” will die off, and new voters will be harder to attract?

  4. @Candy

    I won’t debate policy.

    Just read the book – the whole idea is based on an alternative paradigm (a different one from one experienced now.). You cannot view the solution offered correctly without changing that.

    We can reject that paradigm and maintain the status quo, but the price to pay as we run the planet’s resources down at a critical and unsustainable level will be terribly high, especially for the poorest and most vulnerable.

    Have a Merry Christmas :-)

  5. @Candy

    The Tories obviously don’t agree with you as they junked the hippyish Green and Blue logo for one that could easily be used by any right-wing nationalist party – http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/256×144/p01vkqyw.jpg

  6. Keithp
    In reality the LibDem vote is much lower than throughout the 1945 – 1970 period simply because in those days the Liberals fought far fewer seats! In 1951 and 1955 there were just 109 and 110 candidates in those respective elections.Whilst their national poll share was barely 2.5% on both occasions had they fought over 600 seats the Liberals would surely have managed over 12%. Later in 1970 they managed 7.6% but again had only contested 330 of the 630 seats.

  7. @CatManJeff – I’m all for sustainable policies – I agree with all the regulations imposing energy efficiency on white goods etc.

    The thing that bugs me the most about the Greens is their anti nuclear stance. I’m on the south coast, and according to the breakdown on my electricity bill, 67% of the power I use is nuclear from the power stations in Northern France. So my carbon footprint is low. I don’t see what the “risk” is in having our own nuclear power stations. We’re not really making ourselves “safe” by not having them as the French ones are so close we’re already at risk if it goes wrong.

  8. ChrisLane1945 – stop the clocks, and get the bunting out; Villa took a point off the Red Devils for the first time in very nearly five years!! What with these recent polls, I enter the season of goodwill and merriness in a particularly buoyant mood! Those miserable and miserly stooge-like ghosts of Christmases past, Swingback and Crossover, seem to be banished and that great Santa like and beneficent spirit, Increasing Labour Lead, is here to cast goodness and light over us all. :-)

    By the way, I’ve just realised that my moniker, Crossbat, is an anagram of crosstab. Do you think I was destined to be the master-psephologist that I have become?

  9. It’s also an anagram of brass cot, though I’m not sure if that is significant….

  10. Yay! Anagram game. Here’s my entry:

    …cat’s orbs.

  11. As a newcomer to the blog I want to ask if it is permissible to point out the many disadvantages of the Climate Change Act?

    When this was introduced it had almost universal support in Westminster. Only later did UKIP come to challenge it.

    IMHO it is a very important piece of legislation the effects of which will last for years if not in the way those who supported it are likely to have
    believed.

  12. Scot’s bra.

  13. @Wes, Norbold and Muddy W

    Good efforts from you all on the anagram front, but I have to give it to Muddy for “cat’s orbs”.

    However, I hope the orbs in question are either celestial bodies or golden globes that form part of a monarch’s regalia, and not a rather vulgar reference to feline reproductive organs.

    :-)

  14. @CANDY

    “@CatManJeff – the problem is one person’s consumption is another person’s income.”

    —————-

    If Richard in Norway were around, he might also add the additional problem of our banking system, which issues money via the creation of debt. And of course, this debt has usually to be paid with interest on top, over and above the actual amount of money issued.

    This means folk are usually in debt, and that there tends not to be enough money around to repay both the debt AND the interest. Which means that there is quite the driver for continued growth to cover the shortfall.

    But good luck debating with Greenies!! As with other groups on the fringes – e.g. Libertarians – they tend to be averse to discussing actual policy, preferring instead to issue… reading lists!!! Libertarians are very fond of directing folk towards imbibing great tracts of Mises, for example. “Read this man’s life’s work!! It will explain everything!! If you are still not convinced, I can fill your life with many more books to read!! Some of them I have even read myself!!!!!”

    Obviously on here, they can take refuge in the comments policy. But it doesn’t matter much where on the net one encounters them: homework – and lots of it – will usually be involved…

  15. @Sam

    As always, read the comments policy and that should tell you.

    AW moderates with a light touch normally, as long as things don’t end up in a partisan squabble.

  16. @CB11

    Thanks for that. MOTD is not worth watching now. Sigh.

  17. batty

    “sorts cab” as a tribute to a hugely missed contributor.

    [looks like he sorted his own]

  18. Tops Cats gangmight say that TC is

    R Boss Cat?

  19. “sorts cab” as a tribute to a hugely missed contributor.

    Two laughs for the price of one – this is surely the Crossbat anagram winner… :-)

  20. Amber do you really
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    miss him?

  21. Opinium in tomorrow’s Observer

    Lab 36 Con 29 UKIP 16 LD 6 Grn 5

  22. Carfrew – “But good luck debating with Greenies!!”

    Do you know what the funniest thing is about the Greens in places like Brighton?

    They will all have consumed electricity generated by nuclear power stations in northern France – everyone on the south coast does at some point.

    But they vote Green in the fond belief that the vote plus the Dear Old English Channel will protect them from any “safety issues” arising in the nuclear power stations in Normandy etc, whilst they would be very cross if their electricity got cut off for any reason!

    They’re either foolish or their anti-nuclear stance is just a fashionable pose. I’ve never heard of any of them campaigning to close the French stations or campaigning to shut off the interconnecter, which you’d think they would do if they were genuinely worried about it.

  23. @ Graham,

    Crikey. I know I’ve been a swingback sceptic, but I may have to eat some crow here: it’s starting to look like a real phenomenon.

    Swingback to the incumbent Opposition, that is.

  24. I may have been too harsh on poor old George Osborne as well.

  25. CB11

    Hehe. Yes, it would have been very wrong of me to disrupt the rarified elegance of UKPR discussion with such an ambiguous vulgarity.

  26. @Graham

    “Lab 36 Con 29 UKIP 16 LD 6 Grn 5”

    Don’t get distracted by minor detail, what matters is the leadership ratings.

  27. @ JimJam

    LOL! You & the puppies are making my Christmas merry already. :-)

  28. I’m still cautious about potential swingaway.

  29. @Candy

    I have found that discussions with Greenies on nuclear power to be very straightforward and brief, tbh, and happily do not result in exchanges that might cause grief for AW.

    I just mention Thorium, and Greenies go “Eh??” and it’s all over very quickly. Happily, there are not many books on Thorium yet.

  30. I know polls have statistical errors -inevitably.However the latest Labour lead must surely spoil the festivities in Downing St.
    They may , of course recover but so as to be the largest party .? All the best btts will surely not give them that hope. when they are predicted to be a majority by a tiny % (Electoral Calculus) I am praying(yes praying) that the pollsters are as near to being accurate as all my studies suggest of their techniques.

  31. @Candy @Carfrew

    I don’t come on here to debate.

    I know my views on all sort of stuff – and that’s my business.

    I don’t seek to have my views validated – I don’t really care what other people think, that’s their business.

    I don’t try to persuade others – their views are their own business too.

    So if I don’t debate with people on x, y or z please excuse me.

    Have a nice Christmas :-)

  32. @Catman

    No one insisted you debate. I just find the homework thing mildly amusing. Enjoy Crimbo!!…

  33. To bring us some more festive cheer, Ukip have just changed their constitution to ban party members from using their logo:

    “Party members shall refrain from using the Ukip logo in terms of their online postings, including avatars, unless they have express written consent to do so from the party leader, the party chairman, the party secretary, the general secretary, the party director, the regional chairman or regional organiser for their region.”

    Political correctness gone mad, innit! Whatever happened to free speech!?

  34. Seven point lead. Polls seemingly widening after the Autumn Statement … Liking this ‘inevitable’ swingback.

    At the point of the AS I did wonder what strategic direction Osborne thought he was pursuing. If be thinks he’s emulating Blair he must be reading TB’s playbook upside down.

  35. amber

    It would make all our krissmusses if owr dad could be the crossbat anagram winner….. we would wuff owr little tails off/

    statty

    if you are so keen not to know footy scores because of MOTD you must eschew all media until you have watched the highlights. Or go to the match.

  36. @MRNAMELESS

    “I’m still cautious about potential swingaway.”

    ———-

    Swingaway? Did we decide on what swingback is yet?…

  37. @Carfrew

    I actually enjoy getting sources of further information, and order library books to read in my own time.

    Many concepts are complicated or tricky, and a few posts on here sometimes doesn’t do justice to something, when an excellent source (book, web page etc) is available.

  38. cmj

    Yer a man after my own heart – a miserable sod.

  39. “I don’t seek to have my views validated – I don’t really care what other people think, that’s their business.”

    —————

    See, now, I do care what other people think. Like, if I’m wrong about summat, which has been known to occur, I find it quite useful if other folk point it out, so that I don’t continue to labour in even greater ignorance than usual. One learns all kinds of useful stuff chatting. Like it was ‘cos of Alec I found out about hydraulic gradients which led to the lagoon thing and before you know it… Thorium!!

    (Alec is a bit of a treasure though, as he does not tend to set homework…)

  40. YouGov/Times:

    CON 32 (+2)
    LAB 34 (-1)
    LIB 6 (=)
    UKIP 15 (-1)
    GRN 8 (=)

  41. @Catman

    Sure, one can read the books. And there are too many books to read, so from my perspective, one relies on the hive mind, the good peeps of UKPR to cut through the noise and précis stuff for each other, help with the polling analysis etc. etc.

    But whatever floats your boat…

  42. @CatManJeff – I wasn’t trying to persuade you.

    I was just trying to explain that Green issues are a minority thing and hence there is a ceiling on their vote.

    A lot of people don’t know much about them, and they’re interested because their name is nice – but I personally believe that the more they find out, the less likely the Greens will burst out and become a major party.

  43. @ Tark,

    If be thinks he’s emulating Blair he must be reading TB’s playbook upside down.

    “Alienate your party’s working class supporters… bomb things in the Middle East… point and laugh at the Opposition Leader…”

    No, he’s got it about right. It just turns out the strategy doesn’t have as much longevity if you didn’t start out with a landslide victory.

  44. One five point lead, two seven point leads and then YouGov have to come along and spoil it. Tch!

  45. @CANDY

    “@CatManJeff – I wasn’t trying to persuade you.

    I was just trying to explain that Green issues are a minority thing and hence there is a ceiling on their vote.”

    ———

    Well, in terms of what you were saying about the hairshirt thing, you may be right.

    It isn’t necessarily even a case of people simply not liking hairshirts. People may not be persuaded by the remedy anyway.

    Like, the anti-growth thing. Greenies have been known to have issues with growth ‘cos of the use of resources etc.

    But one can have growth without using more resources, simply by having more trade. Or being more efficient and productive.

    However, just as Ukip once had a pseudo-ceiling when their main thing was Europe, but then broke through the ceiling by broadening the platform, and seem to be seeking to broaden further by going beyond the neoliberal to make noises about nationalisation and stuff…

    …so may Greens be breaking out to embrace other more mainstream leftward things, territory formerly occupied by Lab and LDs…

  46. “To bring us some more festive cheer, Ukip have just changed their constitution to ban party members from using their logo”

    ———–

    Maybe they’re just following AW’s lead and trying to restrain the partisan, by eliminating party symbolism. Like, AW got rid of party colours, and they’re getting rid of the logos.

    Now, if they could just get rid of the Parties…

  47. @Spearmint

    Swingback from whom? That’s joint highest Opinium’s shown for the Greens.

  48. poltical parties, obviously. Naturally one would not wish to be rid of Xmas parties. Tho’ the pre-Xmas works outings round where I live have been a bit more boisterous than usual…

  49. @ Norbold

    ‘One five point lead, two seven point leads and then YouGov have to come along and spoil it. Tch!’

    Not really: Greeens on 8% and we know that a significant portion of that number will vote Labour so this still suggests a healthy Labour lead.

  50. @Carfrew

    UKPR is almost exclusively visited by partisans – it’s just the nature of these things. Thus it makes little sense trying to “teach” others round to your viewpoint – text-book definition of pissing in the wind.

    Nor distill a book’s worth of info & theory into one post when it’s neither the time nor the place. Although I can’t imagine why “Greenies” wouldn’t want to debate you and Candy, you both seem so likeable.

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