Today we’ve the final Ipsos MORI monthly poll of 2014 and the last 2014 batch of Lord Ashcroft’s constituency polling (the keenly awaited Scottish marginals polling is taking place next year).

MORI’s monthly poll has topline figures of CON 32%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 13%(-1), GRN 9%(+2). The Conservatives are three points ahead, but as ever it’s the trend that counts and there is no difference from last month for the main parties here. Note the Greens though – nine points is another new record high for them. Full tabs are here.

Meanwhile Lord Ashcroft’s final batch of 2014 constituencies polls covers three groups of seats. One is another swathe of Con-held Labour targets, another is a group of those Labour seats who the Fabians have identified as the most vulnerable to UKIP, the final one is the unusual seat of Brighton Pavilion. Full details of all the polls are here.

This batch of Con/Lab seats covers those with Conservative majorities between 7.1% and 8.1% – in other words these are seats that would need a swing of between 3.5% and 4% to fall to Labour, the equivalent of national polls showing a Labour lead between zero and one point. This is in the region of current national polls, and as the swing in individual seats varies from one to the next, Ashcroft found Labour ahead in some of these seats, the Conservatives ahead in others. Across all eight seats polled Ashcroft found an average swing of 3 points in these seats, the equivalent of national polls showing a one point Conservative lead – so in this batch of seats, Labour are actually doing slightly worse than they are in the country as a whole. These might just so-happen to be eight seats where the Tories are doing a bit better of course, so don’t run off with the idea that the Conservatives are out-performing in the marginals just yet. The broader finding in Ashcroft’s Con-v-Lab battleground polls so far is that the marginal swing is pretty similar to the national swing.

The Lab-UKIP part of the polling covered four Labour-held seats (Great Grimsby, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View and Rother Valley) that the Fabian Society’s paper Revolt on the Left identified as being at critical or high risk from UKIP. The polling found Labour ahead in all four seats, but with UKIP in a close second place in all four of them. Labour have a 1 point lead in Grimsby, 3 points in Dudley North, 5 points in Plymouth Moor View and 6 points in Rother Valley. This appears to confirm the research by Rob Ford and Ian Warren that these would be seats where, based on demographics, UKIP would pose a strong challenge – and suggests that Labour cannot afford to take them for granted. It’s also worth pointing out that using standard “how would you vote tomorrow” UKIP were ahead in three of the seats, Labour only moved ahead on the question asking people to think about their own constituency and candidates.

Finally in Brighton Pavilion, very much a unique seat given its Green incumbency, Ashcroft found latest voting intention figures of CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 8%, GRN 38%.


323 Responses to “Latest MORI poll and Ashcroft constituency polling”

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  1. In my mind I am convinced its a dead-heat come May 7 any other year a 2nd Election would be called in OCT ..What happens now with this 5 year madness that Cameron wanted ..

  2. first? looks like the greens will hold pavilion… again the swings in ashcroft aren’t that great for labour, but a world where they win stevenage and ealing central doesn’t look like a tory triumph to me.

  3. 2nd this time Peter :-)

  4. I’m wondering what value a monthly poll of 1012 people is versus YG’s daily polls of 1800. I appreciate that if YG’s entire methodology were flawed, every one of those daily polls would be questionable, so the value of the IM poll is arguably as high as any poll of 1000.

    Which begs the question, would daily polling with a flawed methodology gain more trust due to regular polling, than a monthly poll with a trustworthy methodology?

    As for the Scottish data, was it worth it, with such a small sample? Wasted money imho.

  5. Lots of variation for the Greens. Way behind the Lib Dems…a long way in most polls lately…then these rogue ones. How do we explain this?

  6. On Ashcroft’s first question Labour actually has a 5% lead in Brighton Pavilion, which reflects the unpopularity of the Green Party here from their mismanagement of the council. This compares well to previous seat polls where it was much closer. The ten point lead only comes from the candidate question where Caroline Lucas’s profile comes into play – she hardly ever mentions the Green Party in her campaign material now, in fact an ad in this morning’s local paper has the party logo so small you need a magnifying glass to see it…

  7. Green supporters in my experience are quite squeezable when actually spoken to. I think in many of their cases it’s a similar reason to why some people support UKIP – a lack of political engagement. Common reasons for voting Green in Hallam include “they seem nice” and “I don’t like negative politics”. It seems we made the right call in not going super-negative on Clegg in Hallam, because explaining policies and lack of negativity in the campaign does tend to win them over.

    There was a poll a while back which asked respondents to class themselves on the left-right spectrum. I would like to see a poll along similar lines, where respondents are asked to pick their ideology from a fairly long list. So you could have for example:

    – Anarchist, Communist, Socialist, Social Democrat, Liberal, Centrist, Christian Democrat, Liberal Conservative, Traditional Conservative, Libertarian, Nationalist, Fascist, Environmentalist, Technocrat.

    Wouldn’t be too hard to map to political party support and would help all parties with potential messaging.

  8. 3% swing Con-Lab in marginals delivers lab just shy of 40 cons seats.

    Enough to make then largest part even with 15-20 losses in Scotland.

    Long way to go though.

  9. This IM poll and the marginals results are a dose of cold water to those of us who thought we had detected a minor Labour pull away.

    All goes to confirm that this genuinely looks like the most exciting election since 1974.

    Also noted today the fact that oil prices have at last broken through into mainstream Scottish politics. I only saw the snippets on BBC news, and so cannot vouch for either how representative they were nor how Scottish voter might react, but Labour’s attack is essentially of the SNP being asleep at the wheel.

    It appears that the North Sea fields are effectively about to shut down, so there are likely to be big ripples in the NE, and the question is going to be which party is handed the blame, if any.

  10. @JIM JAM
    Yes, Lab must only take 24 seats from Con, before Con are poggered. Of course the Scottish damage is currently unknown. As you so rightly say, long way to go.

  11. ALEC
    I did tell you dear.

  12. Tories changing tack maybe, in the latest email from them they talk about stopping a Labour led coalition with the SNP etc etc, normally these mails only mention majority’s.

    @ Miserable Old Git

    From the last thread, if I truly believed any of them could change the NHS I may well change my vote, but from spending just two days in hospital I have seen some desperate faults, its broken and probably always will be.

  13. @Alec

    The party or parties that mismanaged the industry, rather than the one who had high hopes for it, surely?

    If hopes are a sign of lacking credibility, I refer the honourable gentleman to the Chancellors’ statements on projected debt and deficit over the past 10 years.

  14. Tories changing tack maybe, in the latest email from them they talk about stopping a Labour led coalition with the SNP etc etc, normally these mails only mention majority’s.

    Interesting approach from blues which might work but: a. I doubt EN voters are closely following SC polling and b. May just think “that can’t be right as I live in England “. ie. it assumes a Scottish level of political engagement in England. Perhaps it’s just for activists ie. we must stop such a thing happening…

  15. @Bluebob

    Given that this is a site about polling, you might be interested that polling showed that user satisfaction with the NHS reached a record high in 2010.

  16. @Ashley

    Lots of variation for the Greens. Way behind the Lib Dems…a long way in most polls lately…then these rogue ones. How do we explain this?
    ______________________________________
    Weighting

    From Anthony’s weighting article
    “Alone amongst the pollsters Ipsos MORI do not use any political weighting at all ”

    “ICM, Populus and ComRes, the three pollsters who weight by past vote”

    So it comes down to who is getting weighting correct. The 3 polling companies who weight by recalled past vote say no Green surge, but there is a Lib Dem recovery. The company who does not weight says there is a Green surge.

    And Yougov who weight by actual past vote (but the Green surge is in the youngest age group who did not vote last time to confuse matters) is somewhere in the middle.

    Having said that, could the younger profile of the Green vote be part of the reason for the lower Green figures in the companies that do weight by past vote, by trying to weight those voters who did not vote in 2010???

    Read the whole article here
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/faq-weighting

  17. Alec – “It appears that the North Sea fields are effectively about to shut down”

    But that report did say they were increasing gas resources off the East Coast of England. Near Hartlepool I think.

    So good news for them

    It would be funny if Monkey-Hanger gas became more important than Scotland’s oil :-)

  18. We have a poll showing a record high this millenium of 9% for the Greens, and a sub 30% poll for Labour delivering the largest Conservative lead of 3% for several years.

    Rogue poll or not, I think the two are not unrelated.

  19. Anthony

    How do Yougov politically weight the youngest age group? I presume you can’t, but I did notice in the recent Green tables that were produced, the sample was further weighted by education and work status. (and not weighted by newspaper readership) Is that something that is done in the daily Yougov polls for this age group, or something that was only done for this Green party analysis?

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/jrfu2ekqp9/Results_Nov14_VI_18-24s_Website.pdf

    Just trying to understand if the young Green surge could just be some enthusiastic young Green supporters who have all joined Yougov recently or are keen to respond to polls, or if there is something you do to down weight them down if that happened.

  20. @Roland

    It looks if all of the work you’ve been doing to make Tory Kippers head back to their usual waters may be having some effect.

  21. ROSIEANDDAISY (previous thread)

    I know she’s announced her intention to stand and perhaps you weren’t being entirely serious but I can’t see Diane Abbott as next Mayor of London or even as the Labour nominee – she’s got a lot of baggage, she’s unpopular with people on both sides of the party and she’s not a particularly talented political operator – compare her with Ken and Boris both of whom are very canny indeed. I’d be quite surprised if it was anyone but David Lammy personally.

  22. @Mr Nameless

    There was a poll a while back which asked respondents to class themselves on the left-right spectrum. I would like to see a poll along similar lines, where respondents are asked to pick their ideology from a fairly long list. So you could have for example:

    – Anarchist, Communist, Socialist, Social Democrat, Liberal, Centrist, Christian Democrat, Liberal Conservative, Traditional Conservative, Libertarian, Nationalist, Fascist, Environmentalist, Technocrat.

    I’m not so sure.

    We are all contradictory, from issue to issue. I think the tags are pretty meaningless really. What is the objective difference between a Centrist and a Social Democrat? You could debate

    Anyway, why should the electorate line up in nice little boxes for the marketing departments of the political parties? Let’s make the parties have to work hard, and make them recognise we don’t fit into little boxes, but are complex and varied.

  23. Correction

    @Mr Nameless

    There was a poll a while back which asked respondents to class themselves on the left-right spectrum. I would like to see a poll along similar lines, where respondents are asked to pick their ideology from a fairly long list. So you could have for example:

    – Anarchist, Communist, Socialist, Social Democrat, Liberal, Centrist, Christian Democrat, Liberal Conservative, Traditional Conservative, Libertarian, Nationalist, Fascist, Environmentalist, Technocrat.

    I’m not so sure.

    We are all contradictory, from issue to issue. I think the tags are pretty meaningless really. What is the objective difference between a Centrist and a Social Democrat? You could debate that for weeks and not get an answer,

    Anyway, why should the electorate line up in nice little boxes for the marketing departments of the political parties? Let’s make the parties have to work hard, and make them recognise we don’t fit into little boxes, but are complex and varied.

  24. OldNat (fpt)

    Nice to see you back. :)

    Before denouncing SLab Union members too much for uninvolvement, it’s worth pointing out that the percentages voting in the 2010 UK leadership election showed a very similar pattern -and we actually do have their numbers:

    http://archive.labour.org.uk/leadership-affiliates

    ASLEF 25.2%
    BECTU 10.6%
    BFAWU 7.7%
    COMMUNITY 11.8%
    CWU 10.9%
    GMB 7.8%
    MUSICIANS UNION 12.4%
    TSSA 15.3%
    UCATT 10.5%
    UNISON 6.7%
    UNITE the UNION 10.5%
    USDAW 4.3%

    There may be all sort of technical reasons, members addresses may not be up to date for example, but a lot of voters may simply feel it is not their place to vote for the leader of a Party they may not vote for or show the commitment of being a full member.

  25. The current state of party policies (or parties themselves) as REM songs):

    Ukip – Exhuming McCarthy
    Greens – Fall On Me (resisted the entire album “Green”, or Gardening at Night. Fall on Me could be the Green Anthem)
    LD – Can’t Get There From Here
    Labour – Sitting Still
    Tories – Everybody Hurts
    SNP – Near Wild Heaven
    PC – Hope

    Please don’t take this too seriously :)

  26. I’d have suggested Losing My Religion for the LDs although I must confess my REM knowledge is quite poor.

  27. Am I the only one who thinks this latest Ipso/Mori poll looks decidedly dodgy? Looking at their last one a month or so ago, with exactly the same ratings for Tories and Labour, it stuck out like the proverbial sore thumb then in the same way that it does now.

    Their November poll showing a 3% Tory lead, followed 15 polls, conducted by 7 different pollsters over 10 days, 13 of which showed Labour leading by between 1 and 5%, 1 Tory lead of 1% and a dead heat. It was then followed by another 15 polls, again over 10 days and conducted by 6 different pollsters, that showed 11 Labour leads of between 1 and 4%, and 4 Tory leads, all of 1%. In other words it was way out with nearly every other poll and pollster.

    Moving on to their poll today, it looks similarly out of kilter, if not more so. If you look at the 15 or so polls that have preceded it, there are none that give the remotest sign that Ipsos/Mori are either plugging into a trend or aligning with the average.

    I suppose they may be the only ones marching in step and all the others are failing to do so, but how likely is that, do we think? The only two polls out of the last 120 showing 3% Tory leads and they’ve both been conducted by the same pollster;Ipsos/Mori.

    I’d say, without too much fear or favour, that it’s an absolute turkey and they ought to take a serious look at their methodology and sampling.

  28. RAF
    You are too kind, they won’t listen some old bloater like me.
    As for the Tory anthem, “everybody hurts”. Yes its public school,
    ” Farquharson – Digby major has birched me again”.

  29. CROSSBAT11
    Sleep tight, we will see what tomorrow brings. Anyway, its only the next government. Its not as if its Strictly Come Dancing.

  30. @Crossbat11

    Given that 5% of polls should be a rogue one, if an odd one looks out of kilter, more than likely it is a rogue.

    The alternative hypothesis, that the odd looking poll is correct and the upteen others are all wrong, is highly improbable to say the least.

  31. ” but a world where they win stevenage and ealing central doesn’t look like a tory triumph to me”

    In a UNS world that would be true. In the current world – if the Cameroons hadn’t alienated 1/3 of the potential Con support – Lab could have a triumph in the cities and Con could have had a triumph outside the cities.

    Now, Lab will have a triumph in the cities and outside the cities will be very mixed.

    “Lots of variation for the Greens. Way behind the Lib Dems…a long way in most polls lately…then these rogue ones. How do we explain this?”

    A specific segment of voters in specific places e.g. left-ish people who are hacked off with Lab in their local area who see Green as the only left-ish alternative now Lib is in the doldrums?

    Pure guess but I wouldn’t be surprised if any above average Green surge was in the same low to middling income currently Lab seats that Ukip do well in.

  32. Mr N
    “There was a poll a while back which asked respondents to class themselves on the left-right spectrum. I would like to see a poll along similar lines, where respondents are asked to pick their ideology from a fairly long list. So you could have for example:

    – Anarchist, Communist, Socialist, Social Democrat, Liberal, Centrist, Christian Democrat, Liberal Conservative, Traditional Conservative, Libertarian, Nationalist, Fascist, Environmentalist, Technocrat.”

    I’d like to echo Catmanjeff. I wouldn’t even know the difference between some of these, and where I do have an inkling, I probably have some views which are anarchist, some libertarian, some traditional conservative etc. I suspect most people would be the same.

  33. REM –

    Welcome to the Occupation – SNP!

  34. The SNP have had no power to increase income tax on the wealthy

    Under Calman (legislated to come into effect) the Holyrood parliament can increase tax on the wealthy, but only if the proposed increase is applied across all bands.

    Under the Smith proposals, the Holyrood parliament would have the power to increase one tax band while leaving the others alone – the only income tax power it would not have would be to decrease the point at which an earner started to pay tax.

    So the power will be Scotland’s soon enough.

  35. @New Forest Radical

    Very good

  36. Sun Politics [email protected]_Politics · 45 secs45 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead by 5 points – biggest since October. LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%, LDEM 6%.

  37. REM –

    Orange Crush(ed) – Lib Dem
    Radio Free (of) Europe – UKIP

  38. well well well

    polls apart

  39. @ Richard,

    Gosh. There’s a poll for everyone today, isn’t there?

    Well, not the Lib Dems, I guess. But everyone else can just pick their favourite!

    Although the Green Team might struggle a bit, since 8%, 9% and holding Brighton Pavilion with a convincing lead are all pretty nice…

  40. Who’s
    World Leader Pretend?

    2 outliers in one day!

  41. Blimey

    Was happenin ?

  42. @Spearmint – yes Christmas for everyone

    Labour and UKIP- tonight’s YouGov
    Tories and Greens – today’s Ipsos Mori
    Lib Dems – the ICM/Comres/Populus polls earlier this week
    SNP – the Yougov Scotland poll

    I pity you trying to make sense of this in the December churn report….I’m going to give up trying!

  43. 3 outliers in the space of a few days…ICM, IPSOS MOri and now Yougov. Maybe it’s the time of year, especially with a GE just around the corner as well?

  44. @RAF / Funty

    Wouldn’t ‘Losing my Religion’ be for the Christian Party?

  45. @ Richard,

    My cunning plan is to continue only including YouGov in the churn report, thereby saving me from having to figure out wtf is going on with Ipsos Mori.

    Although reconciling YouGov’s whole “Level pegging- oh wait no it’s a 5 point lead!” thing will be a struggle…

  46. And as we approach the end of 2014, the 35% policy is back on course….

  47. @Colin

    F**k knows.

  48. @ RAF

    REM for SNP surely it has to be “Strange Currencies”? ;-)

  49. Well the Con average is still low 30s and that is not a majority government just waiting for grateful electorate to give them the chance to govern alone for the first time since 1992.

    And the official campaign begins tomorrow so they are running out of time and announcements.

  50. Not the best poll ever for the coalition partners…

    Meanwhile, I’ve finally done the piece I’ve been meaning to on the Greens… Some very good polling for them today, the last time they were this high in the polls was before 21% of there current likely voters were born!

    But before people get carried away, remember that Ipsos-MORI, who don’t prompt for any party in their question, have shown most of the higher Green ratings this year.

    And re Brighton, Ashcroft has also had the Greens on 8% nationally and tends to show among the lowest scores for Labour (and the Conservatives).

    Big thanks to Ben Foley for his input.

    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2014/12/with-25-year-high-green-surge-gets.html

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